Twins Trade for Carl Pavano. Um, Yay?
by RandBall's Stu on Aug 7, 2009 11:46 AM EDT
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KFAN and the Strib are both reporting that the Twins have acquired pitcher Carl Pavano from Cleveland for a player to be named later. R.A. Dickey has been optioned to Rochester. One assumes that Francisco Liriano has been optioned to the bullpen. Discuss in the comments, will update as the situation warrants.
Pavano's 2009 numbers:
UPDATE: I believe Pavano is the first Twin who has been romantically linked to Alyssa Milano. So, we've got that going for us, which is nice.
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Dickey is not one of our guys
he came to the team from outside the system, it seems like players like RA always go before one of their own.
Plus, Duensing has 'potential'
His start against the ChiSox was promising.
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
I can't say I'm pumped but I like it
This is the kind of move I was hoping the Twins would make. Get a veteran starter who should be an improvement on some of the guys in the rotation and move said guy to the bullpen hopefully strengthening the bullpen and the rotation with one small move. The Twins aren’t in a position to do much this year but this is the kind of move that at least gives them a bit more hope to take the division and then anything can happen once the playoffs hit.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I forgot to add
I don’t want them to give up significant prospects as it would take too much to fix this team mid season. O Cab and C Pav are perfect cheap (likely with pavano) additions.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I guarantee you right now
The Twins will not make the playoffs this year. This move doesn’t do anything. Pavano’s ERA is 5.37. That is NOT an improvement. Granted, this may mean Liriano is going to the bullpen, but this still does not improve our starting rotation. And quit saying that “anything can happen” in the playoffs. That is a suggestion that we could actually beat the Yankees/Red Sox/Angels, which is preposterous. Oh by the way, we are TWO GAMES BELOW .500. This isn’t football where you only have to win one game. This is baseball where you have to win three out of five or four out of seven.
haha
I never said it was probable but it is possible. Look at the Rockies and the Cardinals from a few years back. They were awful and then hit a hot streak. The Twins do have some major talent on the field and if people start clicking at the right time you never know. Actually it does improve our rotation because Pavano’s been better than Perkins and Liriano this year. So by getting one of them out of the rotation and inserting Pavano, that’s improvement.
So you take your guarantee and have fun with it. A team within 5 spots of a playoff spot against other bad teams is not that outta the question for them to hit a hot streak and take the lead. I’m not expecting anything from this team but it is true that anything can happen and yes I do understand the MLB playoff system.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
His ERA is misleading
His FIP for the year is 4.32.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Pavano's ERA
is so high b/c of his first 2 or 3 starts but I think it is much better if you remove those from the average
i believe
carl will be another good addition for are rotation seriously liriano to recoup swarzek isnt the best option and we honestily have no solid #1 pitcher they shoulda made a trade to try and get anotyher pitcher before the deadline but since they didnt they claimed something that could help us… and maybe they should go get smoltz since boston cut him today
The Twins have two of the top five players in baseball. Anything can happen. Be a fan man.
Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.
I can be a fan
While still being critical. A good fan IS critical. Idiotic fans accept mediocrity and keep giving the team money for being terrible.
They have one
of the top five players in baseball. There’s only one first baseman who’s among the top five players in baseball, and he plays for the Cardinals.
by DK on Aug 7, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
He's an upgrade over half the staff for cheap
I like that they’re not giving up yet. After this weekend, if they lose this series, the situation could be reversed. But for now, if we can win the series, we’re still in this thing, believe it or not. Grundzy will come up soon and we can say adios to Casilla.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Grudsemehleahnklenik
So is he gritty enough and does he grind it out to the point where Gardy will play him over Punto? That’s the real question.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Punto is 0-infinity
Gardy will play who he thinks gives him the best chance to win. Neither Punto nor Casilla can hit as well as your average pitcher (a hot streak here or there notwithstanding). Harris can’t play second. Grundzy can hit and field. As soon as he’s in shape, he’s coming up to play everyday until we’re mathematically eliminated.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Well
As long he’s stays healthy(which I think he was this year), it’ll be alright
But other than that, don’t really care
Unless he throws a perfect game in every game he starts
finally a move supported by the statistical community!
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/potential-trade-deadline-bargain-carl-pavano
I think this is a very good move at this point, low risk, medium reward.
by lookatthosetwins on Aug 7, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I'm really surprised by this
Pavano is twice the pitcher that…say, Jarrod Washburn is right now.
You're either joking or have no clue what you're talking about
I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and guess that you’re being sarcastic.
I'm going to cite some stats that you clearly have no interest in attempting to understand...
Carl Pavano, 2009, xFIP: 4.15
Jarrod Washburn, 2009, xFIP: 4.70 (not including his last horrendous start with the Tigers)
Like fetch9 says, “twice the pitcher” is exaggerating, but I’ll bet the Twins gave up less to get Pavano than the Tigers gave up for Washburn. This is a good “buy low” move. But because of your stubborness to look beyond stats like ERA (and presumably, W/L, Batting AVG., RBI, etc.) and even acknowledge that advanced statistics could be helpful in player analysis, I’m not going to expect you to agree with me.
And it’s not like you have to be a stat nerd to post on this site and add value in the comments section, but when you go around bashing other people when they’ve taken the time to learn about and cite some helpful advanced stats, you should expect some bashing in return.
by Mike I on Aug 7, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Oh this is just classic
I have just learned that a pitcher with an ERA around 3 is worse than one with an ERA above 5. All because of an xFIP stat. You know, you are not adding any credibility to your argument that xFIP is more valid than ERA.
Your argument is entirely tautological
(Viz. “ERA is better than xFIP because xFIP tells me a 5 ERA pitcher is better than a 3 ERA pitcher, when we all know that the pitcher with a higher ERA can’t be the better pitcher.”)
If you want a technical analysis on why xFIP, FIP, tRA, etc. are more predictive of future success, check out this article . The article even discusses some of the shortcoming of those advanced stats.
err, I'm new with the formatting here
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-well-can-we-predict-era/
That’s the article. Copy/Paste if you want to learn something new.
FIP /= stat
FIP is a metric, not a stat. Just nitpicking.
I posted this on the previous topic, but again:
Jesse Crain gets to stay, and we send down Dickey? This doesn’t seem right.
However, I am glad they are doing something to try and fix our miserable pitching situation.
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
Posted on the other thread
Dickey over the last 28 days:
8 G 58 PA 17 R 16 ER 11 BB 4 K 3 HR 1.100 OPS 188 OPS+ 13.94 ERA 2.71 WHIP
In short, he’s done. Stick a fork in him. It was bound to happen. He surprised a lot of hitters with his BP fastball when he struggled to get his knuckle ball over. When scouts saw this, they told their players to look for the fastball. His recent outing in Cleveland is a case in point. Unless he throws strikes with the knuckler, he’s toast. Even when he did throw a strike with it, Choo laced it down the line. It’s not unhitable. His fastball is very hittable.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Is Keppel still here?
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
Yeah
Yeah, I’m going to miss Dickey-Time!!! but he had a total BP fastball. And it’s not like we need a rubber arm guy, our pen is half full of ex-starters and rubber-armed=soft-tossers anyway…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Can't Dickey
refuse to be sent down at this point in his career?
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 7, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
"Nobody ends Dickey Time but RA Dickey!"
“You hear me Colonel Sanders!”
if only we still had legovision
by caluofmn on Aug 7, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His beard has something to say about this!
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
He's not exactly Hallady
But the Twins have to be able to afford Mauer next year. So yeah, at least this is something.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 7, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions
I wonder who they gave up...
but I think this is a pretty good move. If this means Liriano to the pen all the better. That would give us at least 3 solid pitchers to the get us to Nathan.
YEah
The good thing about moving Liriano to the pen is it maybe gives them a chance to keep him mostly off the field for awhile and try to fix his terrible delivery problems.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I Like the Move...
Allows Liriano to move to the pen…we basically give up nothing….and Pavano has had a fantastic season against the Tigers…and a decent season in General..and we did need starting pitching insurance…
he also...
threw well against the sox too…
22.1 IP, 0 HR, 2 BB, 15 K
by gorilla_baller on Aug 7, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm really shocked that the Twins pulled something like this off.
Pavano’s alright. His FIP is 4.26, which is much better than his traditional ERA. He’s got a pretty good slider and the off-speed pitch looks okay. He’ll just have to be careful with how often he throws that fastball over the plate.
Why shocked?
This is a classic Twins move. We go out and get cheap veteran pitchers/players who are struggling and think we can turn them into All-Stars. This isn’t necessarily a bad move given how terrible 1/2 our starting staff is, but it sort of feels like Ramon Ortiz or Livan Hernandez to me.
By the way, I know we’ve been through this before, but stop with the FIP stuff. All it means is that he gives up runs without giving up a ton of home runs or walks and can strike out a few guys. There is much more to pitching than that, such as being able to put the ball in places where hitters can’t rattle the fence with line drives. I would rather have a guy whose FIP is higher than his ERA than the reverse (which is what Pavano has).
Yeah Jesse
stop quoting stats that actually mean something. Sheesh.
On the Pavano note. I wouldn’t say I’m excited, but I wouldn’t say I’m not excited either.
www.twinkietalk.com
www.olympicsportsblog.wordpress.com
You're crazy!
Last I checked ERA meant more than FIP. And don’t give me the garbage about FIP being used to predict future ERA. ERA measures actual, concrete results, which are more important than your fantasy stat known as FIP.
I’m so tired of trying to pound some sense into the heads of some people on this blog … Oh, well, what should I expect from fans who by definition think with their emotions rather than with logic?
I think the Twins do a great job with what they have (what they have being a small market team). If you want to root for a team where all their players have great stats you’ve got the wrong one. They’re never going to pick up studs at the deadline, or sign big name free agents. It’s just not going to happen. They are getting a new stadium and remain competitive every year. What more do you want. I like this move. At least it’s something and it won’t mortgage the future. I hope they follow it up with the tasteful execution of Nick Punto (kidding).
Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.
I don't think we're really a small market team
Our attendance numbers are middle of the pack. We just happen to spend money like a small market team.
Honestly, I am so sick of all you Kool-Aid drinkers who believe that being around .500 and within shouting distance of the playoffs is acceptable. Maybe you guys don’t deserve a championship team. Acceptance of mediocrity is never a good thing in the workplace or in school. Why do you have a different standard for your sports teams?
Please, think rationally, rather than emotionally, : )
especially before you go and spout off in an angry and irrational manner – just after you say such ridiculous things about everyone else on this blog site. FUNNY.
At least you’re good for a laugh Sheldon. Medicrity in school versus sports teams. Hah!
In order to “win” in professional sports, someone else has to lose. Bad teachers over the years have blindly followed this type of process in education by lazily resorting to a “bell curve” type of grading system where (not quite, but basically) for every student who gets an “a” there is a student who gets an “f”. Stupid, and lazy. probably not the best analogy, but far better than yours.
Unlike professional sports, there is no reason why good teachers and good educational systems can help all students throughout the district, or even state, succeed.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 7, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said montanatwinsfan
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 7, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeeesh
I’m so tired of trying to pound some sense into the heads of some people on this blog …Oh, well, what should I expect from fans who by definition think with their emotions rather than with logic?
Enjoy your trip back to Vulcan. I really think you’d be SO much happier on Over the Monster or Pinstripe Alley instead of trying to bring everyone here down with your condescending attitude.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 7, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not bringing everyone down
I’m just willing to face reality long before a lot of you. And the reality is the Twins suck this year.
No, but you're trying to
Again, jump on the bandwagon of some other team that doesn’t “suck”
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 7, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you are the one who isn't using logic.
FIP has been shown time and time again as a better predictor of ERA that actual ERA. Why? It takes two things out of the equation -
Defense. I don’t understand how people can judge a player on ERA with the huge variations of defensive quality.
Luck. We’ve all seen seeing eye singles and bloop hits. These things tend to even out, but it takes a long time for this to happen.
Using a team stat (ERA, W/L) to describe an individual player is such an obvious fallacy, and it baffles me when people disregard better metrics because they can’t take the time to understand them. Espc
by lookatthosetwins on Aug 7, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoops
The last sentence was supposed to read “Especially someone who claims to be a logical thinker.”
by lookatthosetwins on Aug 7, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Last I checked ERA meant more than FIP
Um no. FIP means Fielding Independent pitching. ERA depends on a lot of stuff outside the control of the pitcher, like how well his fielders catch the ball. FIP is a more accurate assessment of a pitcher’s strengths.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Aug 7, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
its shocking...
to me that people don’t get this…
by guinness junky on Aug 7, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
but ERA is also dependent on defense, whereas FIP, or probably better xFIP, is not.
And I would say using numbers is logic, no?
www.twinkietalk.com
www.olympicsportsblog.wordpress.com
Geez, you're more curmudgeonly than Patrick Reusse
If you read up just a little, tiny bit about these stats you’d see why they’re better for projection than traditional stats.
Carl Pavano?
Did he defect from Cleveland while we were there? Was he found hiding in the luggage when we got to Detroit? We were just afraid to send him back because he’d be persecuted by being made to pitch for a shitty team?
So many questions….
"You should enter a ballpark like you enter a church." - Bill "Spaceman" Lee
Come on Yogi
you’re smarter than the average bear, that ‘shitty’ team just took 2 of 3 from the Twins so does that make the Twins the TP?
I’m just nitpicking b/c the visuals of your post is pretty funny
Oh I know....
if Pavano did defect, he shoulda done it when the Angels were in town. Obviously, Pavano is not smarter than the average bear. (Which is really sad, because bears aren’t that smart.)
"You should enter a ballpark like you enter a church." - Bill "Spaceman" Lee
I wouldn’t worry about the PTBNL. More likely the Indians will take cash instead (Like they did when they traded Paul Byrd last year).
This was a cunning move by the Twins. The Red Sox are in dire need of any kind of SP and would have most likely taken Pavano. At the very least, you blocked another contender (for the Wild Card) from getting better.
Pavano has a terrific changeup and feasts on slug-happy teams. You will be surprised.
Cunning move?
I think you’re delusional. If the Red Sox wanted him so badly, why didn’t they trade for him before the non-waiver deadline? Also, keep in mind that teams usually don’t make trades with teams in their own division if they think there is even a remote possibility of it coming back to bite them.
The Red Sox just signed PAUL BYRD (who hasn’t thown a pitch in almost 10 months) and will likely be their #4 starter when he is up to speed. Tell me they wouldn’t have claimed Pavano.
Also, the Twins claimed Pavano off of waivers. Not a traditional trade. The Indians are eager to get out of his contract (each start from here on out is costing them about 125k-150k)
Wow you are stupid
For your insane rantings against “fantasy stats” like FIP, and also for this comment. Of course the Indians aren’t worried about Pavano coming back to bite them, they are OUT OF CONTENTION THIS YEAR. When he’s a free agent after the season, Pavano can go wherever he wants.
Alternatives?
You can criticize this move for being less than you hoped. But how about looking at the alternatives. You may not like Pavano, but you have to admit that he’s the best available guy. If you know if a guy who’s both available and better, I’m all ears.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Where can I get the Twins Pavano Jersey?
I will buy one and wear it all over New York City. It might be the best (and maybe only) way to get back at all my Yankee co-workers after the season sweep of the Twins. It will be a subtle reminder of how much money they wasted on this guy and will piss them off beyond belief.
by NYCisTwinsTerritory on Aug 7, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions
Korea
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 8, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand
how some people can get so worked up here that they come across as if they are ready to take a baseball bat to your head?
This is all just meaningless talk about the team we all root for. It doesn’t mean a thing b/c as far as I know, noone here actually holds a position of responsibility with the Twins.
Good try Mr. Smith,
we are on to you!
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 7, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Now I want to make the playoffs
just to see Pavano face Hunter.
"You should enter a ballpark like you enter a church." - Bill "Spaceman" Lee
48 will forever be Torii Hunter to me
:( you can’t take my memories, Pavano!
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
he can rent mine
if by some miracle, I get to remember him as #48 MVP of the season leading the Twins to a division title.
But yeah, #48 is Mr. Hunter to me.
I like it
It’s a smart move. Is it the best move that’s ever been made? Obviously not, but if nothing else, it gives Liriano some space to work out his issues. It shows management still thinks we have a chance and, frankly, we do (despite some naysaying above). We aren’t a great team by any stretch, but neither is Detroit, so let’s at least wait until after this series to declare doom’s day.
+1
We might not be a great team, but we still have a chance to make the playoffs, especially with so many games left in our division. I’m happy we’re still making moves towards improvement, especially if it is only for a PTBNL. Pavano might not be a great pitcher, but a PTBNL suggests we won’t have to trade a very high-ranked prospect to get him.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 7, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Better than either Liriano or Perkins
Gives the team Perkins in the bullpen, which seems to be a good move for a two-pitch pitcher.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
Could we combine Pavano with Perkins,
and have Carl Perkins? ’Cause he rocked.
'Right now, I am going to urinate' -Tom Kelly
Pavano sucks
don’t get too excited. Mauer is awesome though, especially on my fantasy team!
"you should go back to your cowardly practice of offering no opinion of your own."
-picktoclick
by Where Triples Go to Die on Aug 8, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions
Jake Peavy sucks
don’t get too excited, White Sox fan. Gordon Beckham is awesome in my fantasy keeper league, though.
we are pretty excited
but we have been facing him all year so does it really make a difrence though?
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
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