Does Carl Pavano Make the Twins Rotation Better?
by Jesse on Aug 8, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
in News
38 comments
Actually, yes. Yes, he does.
When the Twins claimed Carl Pavano off waivers this week, it set in motion events that would lead to Minnesota's biggest mid-season trade since Shannon Stewart in July of 2003. Under most circumstances an inter-division trade would seem odd, but considering Cleveland's failure of a season and their sellers aspect, they really have nothing to lose by dealing Pavano to a division rival.
There's really no question that the Twins needed some help in the starting rotation. Injuries and slow starts have been the two biggest factors affecting how effectve that rotation has been, so the addition of the 33-year old Pavano (at presumably the closest thing you can get to zero cost while still giving something up) is a step in the right direction.
Of course there are a few stock reactions of the negative variety on a move like this...
- Pavano isn't a front-line starter
- He hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2004 (just 45.2 MLB innings from 2006 - 2008)
- That 5.37 ERA is just bad
All of those things are true, but none of them give an accurate clue as to whether he upgrades an ailing rotation. Let's see how he stacks up against our boys so far this year.
| Name | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP | Zone % | First Strike % | HR:FB | FIP |
| Carl Pavano | 21 | 125.2 | 6.30 | 1.65 | 1.38 | 50.6 | 66.5 | 12.8 | 4.26 |
| Scott Baker | 21 | 127.1 | 7.49 | 1.91 | 1.17 | 53.4 | 61.0 | 11.6 | 4.11 |
| Nick Blackburn | 22 | 145 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 1.37 | 52.2 | 60.0 | 7.2 | 4.18 |
| Francisco Liriano | 21 | 118.1 | 8.06 | 4.18 | 1.54 | 45.0 | 54.5 | 12.7 | 4.78 |
| Glen Perkins | 17 | 95.1 | 4.25 | 2.08 | 1.48 | 51.9 | 64.6 | 9.8 | 4.63 |
| Kevin Slowey | 16 | 90.2 | 7.44 | 1.49 | 1.41 | 56.5 | 68.5 | 10.7 | 4.23 |
| Anthony Swarzak | 9 | 48.2 | 4.99 | 3.14 | 1.42 | 52.4 | 56.9 | 5.8 | 4.20 |
With Slowey out for the season, his leading numbers in BB/9, strike zone percentage and first strike percentage no longer qualify as "best in the rotation". Perkins, who's been moved to the bullpen anyway with the arrival of Pavano, wasn't the leader in any category.
Understanding the season that Blackburn has put together so far and knowing the direction that Baker's season has been heading, it's not unfair to say that Pavano has just become Minnesota's third best starter, if not their second. And considering that Bill Smith and the front office managed to pick him up for next to nothing, respect must be paid. The front office made a play and took a chance on the waiver wire, and it just might help.
2003 was a long time ago, but that charmed Marlins club was a good one. Pavano was a big part of their post-season success, appearing in eight different games while starting twice; he logged 19.1 innings and compiled a 1.40 ERA. That's the only time he's been to the playoffs, not having pitched for the Yankees in October during his tenure in New York. But if the Twins do somehow manage to pull off a fantastic final eight weeks, I'd have no problem with this guy being part of our post-season rotation.
August is a fun time, because sneakly little deals like this can still happen. The players and teams involved aren't always a surprise, but how they're matched can be if only because news doesn't flow as freely as it does in July.
We'll get to that waiver deadline primer tomorrow night.
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Yes he does...
This isn’t a big deal. We needed another arm and the cupboard in Rochester was bare. Its only a small incremental improvement. Its like calling someone up from Rochester only we did it from Cleveland instead.
Biggest midseason trade since Shannon Stewart? Didn’t we just trade for Cabrera last week?
It's incremental, but it provides
depth at a position where there really isn’t any depth left. Better is still better, and I think it’d be hard for the Twins to upgrade on a bigger level in terms of starting pitchers in August. And yeah, the O-Cab deal was pretty big too. I think you could go either way with that one, depending on whether you thought the rotation or the middle infield was in need of more help.
Nothing wrong with incremental improvement
I wasn’t complaining. I wish we made more small changes like this. I was just commenting that people seem to try to read too much drama into each deal. A deal like this underscores the whole notion of the “replacement level”. We should never tolerate below-replacement-level play because guys like Pavano are basically “free”… if we don’t have a guy like him in Rochester, we can find one that will clear waivers that we can pick up for a PTBNL.
Well, I think Pavano is much better than a replacement-level player,
and it was a shrewd move on the FO’s part. But I wholeheartedly agree with your larger point. Guys like Casilla, Tolbert, Delmon, even Red-Dog and Punto (with his average defense this year) shouldn’t have seen playing time this year, as they’re worse than even the average AAA player. Upgrades could have been found elsewhere in the system or for close to nothing in a trade or off of waivers.
Yeah the glaring one is Casilla
Nobody (ahem, except the Twins Geek) expected Casilla to play this badly. But when he did and they sent him down the first time, why didn’t they sign Grundzy or some similar available replacement-level player?
If nothing else, they need contingency plans so that, if a guy falls below replacement level for any length of time, you can call on somebody else. They could have pulled the trigger on a contingency plan at second a lot sooner.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The biggest difference between
the Stewart trade and the Cabrera trade is Stewy led us straight to the playoffs. I mean the Twins really started to win when Stewart came because he was just such a force in the order. With Cabrera, he may help lead the Twins to the playoffs but his impact has not been as big as Stewarts, so far.
Also, Stewy helped us in more than just one year…he provided us with a great bat and solid fielder for years after that trade. With Cabrera, this might be/probably will be is last “great” year. He is getting old and starting to show his age.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Stewart
was also a pure upgrade. He stepped right into the leadoff role, which if I recall correctly had been a spot in the order the Twins didn’t really have a true answer for. Lots of mixing in of Jacque Jones and Christian Guzman…and neither of those guys were ideal, no matter how nice those leadoff bombs from Jones were from time to time.
Cabrera>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Casilla
In the number 2 hole, anyway.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Is this Pavano's
last year on his current contract, or does he extend into next year?
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
One year contract
$1.5M with up to $5.3M incentives depending on Pavano’s number of starts and innings. He’s made 21 starts / 125.2 IP and counting this year, earns incentives for each start above #18 and inning above 130. I’m not sure if we pay or if Cleveland pays for the incentives.
# $5.3M in performance bonuses:
* starts: $0.1M each for 18, 20, 22; $0.2M each for 24, 26, 28; $0.25M for 30; $0.3M for 32; $0.35M each for 33, 34; $0.4M for 35
* innings: $0.1M each for 130, 140, 150; $0.15M each for 160, 170; $0.2M for 180; $0.25M each for 190, 200, 210; $0.3M for 215; $0.4M for 225; $0.5M for 235
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Incentives
According to Joe, the Twins pay about one-third of the incentives, which would match how much of the season is left.
We pay the rest.
The way I read it, theTwins pay a third of his base salary, about 500K, plus all the incentives he earns the rest of the year. That is why the Indians made the deal – he is about to get much more expensive as his incentives kick in.
I wouldn't say "much", but it does amount to another few hundred thousand dollars if he stays healthy.
The Indians are just hemmoraging money this year. They just needed to dump anything they could, and it’s perfect timing since they won’t have to pay those incentives now.
10 more starts
maximum. IF Pavano stays healthy and makes 10 more starts this season, that’s 31 total. At 21 starts so far, he’s earned $0.2M for games 18 and 20. He would earn another $0.95M for the games started.
In addition, Pavano has pitched a shade under 6 innings a start. Again, at the same rate he would pitch another 59 innings, for 184.2 total. That’s another $0.8M by my count.
So if Pavano pitches another 10 starts through the end of the year, we’re on the hook for $1.75M, which is a good bit more than a few hundred thousand. Of course, less than a quarter as expensive as Punto…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I only caught the second half of that equation. $800K doesn’t seem like much to me, but we’d be more than doubling that. I take it back.
After his start and his relief work last night I’m starting to think that putting Duensing in the rotation would improve it also.
by coltzfan on Aug 8, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Twins fans need to shake this "Great White Hope" mindset
The Twins need to find veteran arms to salvage this season. The offense came back last night, but how much can they do when they are always staring up at a deficit?
For some reason baseball fans in general and Twins’ fans in particular are always dreaming that someone in the minor leagues or some rookie is the next phenom. (Time to consider the fact that just maybe Danny Valencia is the next Scott Stahoviak, not the next Corey Koskie.)
Fans clamored for Frankie to come back up last season. Now they hate him. Casilla, same thing. Perkins, same thing. Cuddyer years ago, same thing. The list goes on and on.
Here’s the deal: Rare is the minor leaguer who comes up to the big leagues and makes an immediate impression, let alone stands head and shoulders above his contemporaries for any meaningful period. There are more David McCarty’s, Brian Raabes, Chris Lathams, and Derek Parks’s than there are Koskies, let alone Mauers.
Baseball mostly is a game of failure. You need to understand that to play the game, but few fans understand that and fewer accept it.
Veteran pitchers in general fail less than rookie pitchers in general, which is why they have been able to become veteran pitchers. Teams down the stretch need veteran heads that know how to make a major league hitters carry his bat back to the bench. Swarzie looked like the typical guy with the tight-ass last night, and it’s because he’s not ready for this. And he might never be. But plenty of fans wanted him up here. Well, he’s up here. He’s no good. The same thing will happen with Duensing in the rotation.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Aug 8, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As much as anything...
The move might not upgrade the starting rotation all that much, but it makes the pitching staff as a whole better (Pavano in for Perkins in the rotation, Perkins in for Dickey in the bullpen).
Exactly
Pavano is an upgrade over Perkins, to the tune of about a half run per nine innings from a FIP/xFIP standpoint. In addition, Perkins in for Dickey is a little les, around 0.3 run upgrade per nine in the pen. All assuming 2009 performance to date continues, which it obviously won’t.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is a pretty good move
This is one of the smartest moves Bill Smith has ever made. While not as clever as he played and acquired Joe Crede, it’s an excellent decision. Pavano’s 10 or so starts to close the year for the Twins will likely give the Twins chances to win much more often than Liriano, Perkins, or Swarzak.
They still need bullpen help, a whole lot, but Bill Smith has made pretty decent improvements to the middle infield and pitching staff now, for a pretty low cost. With Grudzielanik coming, this team will have several major problems righted. The rest of their starters will have to shape up, but the front office is doing a good job adding pieces mid-season without giving away the system.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Good move, one of the best we could pull off with little to no cost
While we still need bullpen help, it’s probably going to be easier to find another starter (like Pavano, possibly Duensing) who can pitch better than Liriano (or now Swarzak) are giving us than to find a solid relief arm through waivers. At this point, I give Liriano another start. If he doesn’t turn it around (and I have no reason to believe he will), I replace him in the rotation with Duensing. Let Liriano rip in the bullpen, work his way to short relief. I’d also say hell with it and bring a minor leaguer like Slama up for Keppel ASAP.
1. Baker
2. Blackburn
3. Pavano
4, Swarzak
5. Duensing
Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Liriano, Crain, Perkins, Slama in the pen.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Frankie turns thing around in the bullpen, but Duensing starting is trouble
Liriano, 2009, xFIP: 4.68
Duensing, 2009, xFIP: 5.40
Yeah
He’s probably trouble. I don’t think we have anyone who would be an obvious upgrade, just a bunch of guys who might catch lightning in a bottle. Honestly, as bad as he looked in Boston, I’d trade (not much) for Smoltz and hope his pride and competitiveness improves his performance down the stretch.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet Smoltz would be great in the bullpen,
as I think I’ve seen elsewhere that he’s really started to struggle after the first few innings this year. But the guy is probably a lock to retire now. I think he signed with Boston to get a chance at a ring. I doubt he signs with a mid-market, .500 club such as the Twins.
I doubt it too
but it would sure be a nice story to have Smoltz come back to Minnesota after the 1991 World Series…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Smoltz will be rejuvenated,
with Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven here. Morris was Smoltz’s favorite player growing up in Michigan.
Well,
you’d have to appreciate the irony of Smolzie finishing his career here.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Aug 8, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe C Says we may not be done wheeling and dealing.
he Twins might not be done wheeling and dealing after Friday’s trade for starting pitcher Carl Pavano, Manager Ron Gardenhire said.
"There’s no telling how many more guys we’re negotiating with right now," Gardenhire said. "I mean there could be a ton. I think, just talking to a couple guys in the office, we’ve talked to a lot of people."
http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/2009/08/07/postgame-overshadowed-by-the-gardywendelstedt-feud/?location_refer=Homepage:PromoScroller:Blogs
I'd be talking to a bunch of guys too
I also wonder who (if anyone) has claimed Delmon at this point. Do we cut bait?
by Adam Peterson on Aug 8, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't.
As long as we have three guys that are better in front of him, I’m happy to keep him on the bench for the next couple of seasons. Maybe he catches on eventually. But while there’s nobody around to force him out, I’m happy to keep him around.
I'd bet he's traded, maybe as part of a package
in the offseason. I think Gardie and the FO have realized there’s not place for him here, as long as we expect to contend.
No kidding
With guys like Doug Davis, Harang, Bannister, even – God help me – Arroyo out there, the Twinks need to be buying. They aren’t going to limp to a Division title with this collection of gumballs in their starting rotation.The Red Sox and Yanquees and Angels will be picking up the bill anyway, considering their payrolls. This team needs another starter who don’t whiz down his laig when he reads that the Yanqees or Angels are due in town.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Aug 8, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course he does
He’s better than what we have, but my point in previous posts is that I still don’t think he is going to help that much. He did pitch really well today; I’ll give him that! I hope it works out and I’m glad the Twins made the move because we needed help badly in our starting rotation.
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