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Is It Time to Call Up Danny Valencia?

With Joe Crede hurt and in-house options not tearing the cover off the ball, when is the right time to call upon Rochester's 24-year old third baseman?

I really wish Crede would stop getting hurt.  Or if not hurt, nickled and dimed out of playing.  This latest set-back is quite temporary, but with another cortisone shot to his right shoulder he's scheduled to "just" miss this weekend's series in Detroit.  Here's the sad part:  going back one month to the 9th of July the Twins have played 24 games and Crede has played in just 13 of them.

Oddly enough, the Twins are 2-9 in the eleven games without Joe.  Yes, they're 8-5 with him.  And while those records are less representative of his contributions to the club than they are of team performance in those games, there's no doubt Minnesota misses Crede in the field.

UZR/150, 3rd Base, Minnesota Twins, 2009
Joe Crede:  19.3
Brian Buscher:  -12.9
Brendan Harris:  -15.6
Matt Tolbert:  -97.3

But this is rehashing what we already know--that Crede brings value with him onto the field.  The problem is that getting onto the field precludes you must be healthy.  Which, as we've covered, he isn't.

As of this afternoon, one Daniel Valencia of the Rochester Red Wings is hitting .288/.311/.471 in 153 at-bats.  It's not mouth-watering but it's certainly not bad.  He's been rumored to be decent with the leather at the hot corner, and if he is actually going to be the front-runner for third base over the next couple of seasons I won't blame anyone for wanting to get a glimpse.  Valencia appeared to be a hot commodity running up to the trade deadline.  Who really doesn't want to audition the future?

This is a multi-facted issue.  Valencia isn't a sure shot by any stretch of the imagination, and so thrusting a rookie into the midst of a playoff push won't be doing the other 24 men on your MLB roster any favors in confidence.  There's also service time, and we know the Twins aren't always the most eager to start the clock.  Not to mention the problems of who to send down, what's best for Valencia's development in the larger picture, and what to do with him should Crede actually get healthy and play everyday through the end of September because exclusively riding the pine is probably not the best option.

According to the Minor League Equivalency calculator, translating Valencia's current line in Rochester into a triple slash for the Twins comes to a disappointing .251/.274/.400.

Maybe Valencia gives the bench a little more strength in terms of pop, but unless Crede does actually go down in flames or we can guarantee he'll only be playing part time I'm not quite ready to call for this one.  Valencia needs to play everyday while he can.  Besides, once the Red Wings' season wraps up in a couple of weeks it's almost a guarantee that Danny gets a cup of coffee in September anyway.  Why rob him of his playing time if he's only going to sit on the bench for two weeks?

Just for fun, and for reference, here are the offensive numbers for the top third baseman in the Twins triple-A system over the last ten years.  All numbers are courtesy of The Baseball Cube.

Year Name Age AB 2B HR AVG OBP SLG
2009 Danny Valencia 24 153 13 5 .288 .311 .471
2008 Trevor Plouffe 22 250 17 6 .256 .292 .420
2007 Matt Moses 22 174 8 2 .224 .244 .305
2006 Terry Tiffee 27 308 20 4 .273 .314 .377
2005 Terry Tiffee 26 229 11 10 .266 .313 .454
2004 Terry Tiffee 25 316 26 12 .307 .357 .522
2003 Shane Andrews 31 445 31 11 .256 .324 .409
2002 Casey Blake 28 482 25 19 .309 .383 .492
2001 Casey Blake 27 375 24 10 .309 .376 .485
2000 Casey Blake 26 293 22 12 .317 .406 .529

 

Suffice it to say that this hasn't exactly been a bumper crop.  I have only three things to say.

  • That '04 - '07 era was a hard time.  Poor Terry Tiffee.
  • Tiffee was clearly on something in 2004.  Oddly enough he's still playing, this season with the Phillies triple-A affiliate.
  • I'm really glad we didn't give that Casey Blake fellow too many chances.  29 games over three seasons was more than enough.
Poll
Would you call Danny Valencia up now?
Yes
91 votes
No
140 votes

231 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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I would probably bring him up soon

On this theory: I don’t expect he’ll be that good the rest of the year, but if the Twins don’t win the next two against the Tigers, I’m not sure it matters.

Better to let him start getting his major league legs under him now if you want to count on him for next year.

The problem is Crede keeps not being able to play but not hurt enough to DL. That’s really the worst of all worlds—you can’t count on him, but he’s taking up a roster spot.

by Eric in Madison on Aug 8, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not that surprised Crede can't stay healthy

What surprises me is that his back has been mostly healthy all year. His shoulder is the bigger concern, followed by assorted bumps and bruises of the fluky kind, like fouling a ball off his calf and bursting a blood vessel under the skin.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 8, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Those dang inentives......

If you disable Crede, then he complains about the team keeping him frommeeting incentives. Yet he misses half the games for a month. So he can complain that he’s keeping himself from missing incentives.

The joys of being able to work when one wants to (or, I guess, can). Keep a roster spot open for me and look at my abilities day-to-day.

I ovreall like the Crede signing and glad he’s part of the team, but maybe we do need to switch out Casilla for Valencia and give the rookie a shot on those days Crede can’t play. We still have Harris on the bench. And, I’m sad to report, Punto as the regualr second baseman.

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Aug 8, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Crede does not

complain. Crede loves the Twins and loves the organization. Its his agent, Scott Boras, who is claming that the Twins are keeping him from his incentives. I have never once heard Crede complain about this club or the management. I am sure he is frustrated in the lack of winning, but he is not going to claim that the Twins are keeping him from getting incentives because he knows he cannot play.

I have heard that Crede has also told Scott Boras to “shut his &*##ing mouth”.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Aug 8, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

links?

Do you have links to these quotes? This is the first I have heard of this.

by NorthStar on Aug 8, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes,

I also would like some sort of context for this note.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by FoulJack on Aug 9, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

It really is an easy answer in my mind

If Crede goes on the DL, you call up Valencia. If Crede doesn’t go on the DL, you don’t call up Valencia until September. The Red Wings most likely won’t be in the playoffs, thus their season has a bit less than a month left. Let Valencia play every day, then bring him up in September. His playing time will be dictated by where the Twins are in the standings and Crede’s health. Valencia should get ample opportunity the last month of the Twins season to get his feet wet at third so the Twins have a better opportunity to judge first hand what they can expect in 2010.

by roger13 on Aug 8, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions  

With you all the way on this one.

'Right now, I am going to urinate' -Tom Kelly

by sw mn guy on Aug 8, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I got nothing to say except wow to Casey Blake

sort of sad really that we couldn’t find a spot for him somewhere

by ajmargarine on Aug 8, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

No Freakin' Kidding.

What exactly did we have going on there, then?

'Right now, I am going to urinate' -Tom Kelly

by sw mn guy on Aug 8, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

?

Wasn’t there a guy named Koskie manning 3rd then?
Or was your question, wasn’t there anywhere else Blake could play?

by montanatwinsfan on Aug 8, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blake was a free agent last offseason

We could have signed him then, but I think I heard the Twins weren’t going to offer him as many years as the Dodgers.

by Sheldon on Aug 8, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was exactly the issue.

And I’m glad they didn’t pay the price.

by Jesse on Aug 9, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

We DFAed Ortiz and released Blake in successive offseasons

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 8, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hindsight is 20/20.

I think the Twins had reasons for both, but I still don’t think they gave either one of them enough of a chance. At least in Blake’s case we had Corey Koskie.

by Jesse on Aug 9, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dont want ot make a post

But Vicente Padilla was placed on waivers by the Rangers tonight.
ESPN the Monopoly had a story on how the team did not like him any more because he consistently throws at people, which in turn puts a target on his teammates backs.

Still..another guy who can pitch…

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby

by FoulJack on Aug 9, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I thought about Padilla, too.

But after looking at his numbers I don’t think I’d be a fan of bringing him in. Maybe Texas somehow skewed his numbers the wrong way, but they are what they are—he doesn’t strike anyone out, he walks too many people, and he does give up some longballs. It’s been a long time since he was a good pitcher…which you could also say about Pavano, but at least Pavano’s peripherals look halfway decent.

by Jesse on Aug 9, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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