The rest of the way: some numbers

by Jon Marthaler on Sep 14, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in By the Numbers Comment 14 comments

We've heard for awhile about the seven games that the Twins have upcoming with Detroit. This has been offered as proof that Minnesota's still in the pennant race, even though the home team is a game under .500 and shows no signs of finishing anywhere outside a game or two from 81-81.

That said, the Twins have 19 games left, the Tigers have 20. Seven of those games for each team are against each other. The remainder break down thusly:

MIN: Cleveland-3, @Chicago-3, Kansas City-3, @Kansas City-3
DET: Toronto-1, Kansas City-3, @Cleveland-3, @Chicago-3, Chicago-3

Not a lot of difference there, to be sure - it's intradivisional matchups all the way home for both teams, apart from Detroit's matchup with Toronto tonight. Here's a quick chart of the two teams' records this season against AL Central opponents:

	MINNESOTA	DETROIT
vs. Cleveland	7-8	11-4
vs. Chicago	9-6	7-5
vs. Kansas City	7-5	8-7

The teams have identical 30-23 records within the division; the Twins are 7-4 against the Tigers.

And, just a small reminder of how difficult it would be for Minnesota to actually top Detroit in this race: let's say the Twins won both series with the Michiganders, taking five out of seven games. Let's say the Tigers went just 7-6 in their other remaining games. In order to take the pennant, Minnesota would need to win ten of twelve.

The Twins haven't had a single 10-2 stretch this year. In late August, they won ten of thirteen; apart from this, they haven't had another 9-3 stretch, over twelve games.

Not too confidence-inducing, any of this.

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Yeah, but,

we don’t have to beat the Tigres, just end up in a tie. And, look at those two series that Detroit has with the White Sox. What if the Sox get hot?

That said, the Twins have not distinguished themselves on any level this year, except Mauer and Baker, maybe Kubel and Cuddyer on the outside, and they have no business at all being in race for a division crown.

They kicked this thing away just about every way possible, starting pitching, relief, lack of hitting, defensive breakdowns, incredibly flat performances when most they needed to play a good game.

When a team is more than 10 games under .500 on day games after night games, and when they play their worst baseball in their first game at home after a road trip, someone has to look at the manager and ask him: Why doesn’t your team seem ready to play in those two situations?

by Old Twins Cap on Sep 14, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tigers magic number 15

Even if the Tigers go 10-10 the rest of the way, the Twins would have to go 15-4. It’s a longshot. IF the Tigers go on another losing streak that would help us a lot. After today though, both teams only play AL Central games. /fingers crossed

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"No, you don't understand It’s a metaphor for A SERIES SWEEP!!!!!!!" -natethejinx

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 14, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well this is depressing

by fischean on Sep 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Playoff odds at 7.74%

That’s 12-1 against. A $2 bet pays $26 bucks.

Odds are not “astronomical” yet, and its amazing that we’re even doing the math for a below .500 team at this point in the season, but Isolde is warming up her Liebestod.

by DavidRF on Sep 14, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yikes,

but Isolde is warming up her Liebestod.

had you thrown in some sarcasm font, I might think you really are Stephen Colbert.

by montanatwinsfan on Sep 14, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fat Lady sing? Isn't that Yogi Berra? That's baseball no? :-)

by DavidRF on Sep 14, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I got it the first time,

by montanatwinsfan on Sep 14, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those numbers really put things in perspective

They might be long odds, but I’m not ready to give up yet. The Twins still have a chance (although I’m almost to the point of using the sarcasm font for that sentence)…

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I mean

I mean, basiclly, for the Twins to have a chance, which they shouldn’t because they are a shoddy team, they essentially need to sweep the Tigers out, or lose 1 game at absolute most.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Sep 14, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It'll be one for the ages, like 2006, when the team was this far back at this point

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 14, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but...

At this point in 2006, they were in the driver’s seat for the Wild Card. The division title was awesome, don’t get me wrong (for one thing, they didn’t have to make a new “Wild Card” column in the list of division and league titles in the Dome), but at this point in 2006, it was not at all presumptuous to be talking about the playoffs.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 14, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We were only 1 game back

on 9/14/2006.

But like WWGTD? I’m not about to give up yet, and I wouldn’t call them a “shoddy team” either.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"No, you don't understand It’s a metaphor for A SERIES SWEEP!!!!!!!" -natethejinx

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 14, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In their own mitts

6-1 or 7-0 then means the Twins, at the least, would have to go 9-3, while the Tigers go 10-4, against the rest. Man 7-0 would mean the Twins would…….

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Sep 14, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs