Morning After Poll: One simple question

by Jon Marthaler on Sep 21, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in Speculation

We've sort of done this before, but with the Twins three back with 13 games to go, the predictions get a lot more simple now. There's only one thing that anybody's going to be discussing today.

Today, I'm not asking if the home team can do it, or should do it, or anything else slightly uncertain. Today, you get a chance to count yourself as a pennant believer or as a pennant doubter.

The poll question: Will the Twins win the AL Central?

Poll

Will the Twins win the AL Central this year?

Yes

390 votes

No

343 votes

733 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

BP's playoff odds at 18%

Seems like plenty enough hope to keep rooting on…

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

I see we have a lot of pessimists in our midst

that’s unfortunate. Who gives up hope before they are mathematically eliminated?

And this place says we still have a 21% chance. Not a lot, but enough. I was still holding on when we were at 14%.

by fischean on Sep 21, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions

I like it

Plus Twins have won 6 of the last 10
Tigers have lost 6 of the last 10

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is!" -John "Bluto" Blutarsky

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 21, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, the poll question didn't ask if we'd given up hope...

The question was rigged a bit to get a pessimistic answer by eliminating the can/should scenarios. Of course, no one bets the farm on a 18-21%.

But I certainly don’t think anyone here has given up hope.

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

ok, that is fair enough...

but you have to look at the upcoming schedule, too. Sure they are on the road a lot, but are going to be playing the Sox (who, to put it nicely, have been sucking pretty hard lately), the Royals (who actually might be a legitimate fear to play-who would have thought?), and Detroit, who the Twins showed this weekend they can beat.

I don’t know, I just think it’s still realistic to think the Twins will win the division.

by fischean on Sep 21, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course...

18% is pretty darn realistic! I’ll be here…

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I wont take this poll seriously because I know

fischean found a way to vote ‘yes’ 87 times.

by montanatwinsfan on Sep 21, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Cool...

I actually didn’t vote because I didn’t like the way the question was trying to get me to go against hope. :-)

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you overestimate my computer skills

and I refuse to apologize for thinking the Twins will win the division. :)

by fischean on Sep 21, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

speak for yourself :)

www.twinkietalk.com
www.olympicsportsblog.wordpress.com

by fetch9 on Sep 21, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I like the preface.

Of course they can do it. In fact they’ve been playing pretty good as of late and even yesterday wasn’t an awful game. One rough inning and some decent hit balls that just couldn’t find holes.

I voted no but not because I’ve given up, however because realistically if I were betting money I’d put it on the Tigers. The ten game road trip is the scariest part. Hopefully the Twins find a little magic this next couple of weeks.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 21, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

I feel the same way as you. I still have hope, I still think the Twins can win the division, and I’ll still cheer for them in every game til the end. But at the same time, 3 games back means we will have to both play really well and count on the Tigers playing really poorly from here on out. I think that’s possible and I hope that’s what happens, but like you said I wouldn’t put a bet on it.

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 21, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

I think their chances are a bit higher than BP gives them because they do play the team they’re following so much. Maybe around 25 to 30%. Can they win 3 of 4 on the road?

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Sep 21, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

BP Doesn't take that into account?

If not, my respectometer for BP went down just another notch below where it already was.

by lookatthosetwins on Sep 21, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, they do.

They simulate the season a million times using three different methods. The three odds vary from 14-20% so its hardly exact. I only look at the vague range for an idea of how “do-able” this is and this is certainly do-able.

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

3 back v. 1 back

1 game back I’d have said yes. 3 back is a lot to make up. Splitting in Detroit would leave making up 3 games in 9, not an easy task. We all know they can do it and we know how they need to do it (3/4 or sweep in Detroit). I’ll bet against it and be thrilled if it happens.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

My worry is the White Sox won't play the Tigers hard

my floor is looking pretty dirty... BETTER GET OUT THE BROOM!!!

by natetheskate on Sep 21, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Good point

And the Sox play the Kitties six more times! Of course, if the Twins win tonight, the Sox might go into Royals mode-full fledged spoiler. I do know that the Twins will face Buehrle and Danks and the Tigers will face neither, most likely.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 21, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I know they can win the Central

but the question was “will they win the Central.” I think they have more than enough talent on the team to dominate the division, but to put it in teacherspeak, the boys are not working to their full potential. I don’t think it would take much either. Even if some of our .220 wonders goosed their average to .260 or so, this would have been a much different year. Ultimately, I voted no because of the nine games on the road. At home the boys have been Charles Atlas but on the road they are a bunch of 98 pound weaklings.

The only stat that counts is W

by wayback on Sep 21, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions