Minnesota Twins 2010 Payroll & Roster
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
117 comments
A brief look ahead to 2010 and the first season in Target Field, with the Twins' final regular season off-day in 2009 on the horizon.
This year the Minnesota Twins opened their season with a payroll of approximately $65.3 million dollars. No Carl Pavano, no Orlando Cabrera, but that total does include pro-rated signing bonuses. It wasn't the franchise's record-setting number of $71.4 million from 2007, but it was still an eight million dollar bump from last year.
With Target Field opening up in April it's widely speculated that the organization will take advantage of what should be an increased profit margin in order to spend a bit more. That the payroll will increase for next summer really isn't the point of debate though, it's exactly how the Twins will choose to add to the payroll. As things stand currently, this team is already committed to about $62.2 million for just eight players. Here are the seven guys we knew we had under contract coming into the year.
| Player | '10 Salary |
| Justin Morneau | $15,000,000 |
| Joe Mauer | $12,500,000 |
| Joe Nathan | $11,250,000 |
| Michael Cuddyer | $9,417,000 |
| Jason Kubel | $4,100,000 |
| Nick Punto | $4,000,000 |
| Scott Baker | $3,000,000 |
Add to this Jon Rauch's $2.9 million dollar deal for next summer, and the last $100,000 owed to somebody named...wait, let me check this...Mike Lamb? Anyway, that's your guaranteed payroll right now. Now we have to deal with the nine guys who are eligible for arbitration this year.
Seven players will become eligible for arbitration for the first time, while just two will move into their third and final year of being under team control. I'll list each player's salary for 2009 to help us get a better estimate of what they'll be worth next year.
| Player | Arb Year | '09 Salary | '10 Estimate |
| Boof Bonser | 1st | $450,000 | $500,000 |
| Carlos Gomez | 1st | $437,500 | $600,000 |
| Brendan Harris | 1st | $466,100 | $600,000 |
| Francisco Liriano | 1st | $430,000 | $550,000 |
| Pat Neshek | 1st | $440,000 | $500,000 |
| Glen Perkins | 1st | $430,000 | $550,000 |
| Delmon Young | 1st | $1,152,000 | $1,750,000 |
| Jesse Crain | 3rd | $1,700,000 | $2,300,000 |
| Matt Guerrier | 3rd | $1,475,000 | $2,100,000 |
| Totals | $6,980,600 | $9,450,000 |
Crain is actually coming off of a three-year contract, putting him in a silimar situation to Young last season; something which is becoming more popular as teams attempt to lock up talented younger players for a predictable dollar amount. Gomez and Perkins each have a shot at becoming Super 2 players, and we'll assume they'll each make the grade.
Each salary assigned is fairly arbitrary, but is done with a little research used in conjunction with what we know of the player from the last couple of years. Both Neshek and Bonser, after spending so much time on the disabled list, get $500K. From there it's a slight scale upward until you get to Gomez and Harris, each of whom has been with the team all season the last two years. Young, Crain and Guerrier are best guesses.
Combining our arbitration estimates with the contract figures, we're getting a number north of $71 million, and in fact we should just round it up to $72 million just to be on the safe side. Which means this is what we have so far:
Catchers (1): Mauer
Infielders (3): Morneau, Harris, Punto
Outfielders (4): Cuddyer, Kubel, Gomez, Young
Starters (4): Baker, Liriano, Bonser, Perkins
Relievers (5): Nathan, Guerrier, Rauch, Neshek, Crain
That leaves eight spots. With payroll already going up without adding a free agent, it's hard to speculate as to how much this team will spend on the market when A) their number one off-season priority will be to extend Mauer and B) there's still a lot of holes to fill. If we can speculate as to which holes will be filled in-house, it will become easier to imagine what kind of free agent pool dipping the front office will be doing during the cold winter months ahead.
So what are the needs?
Backup Catcher: This is a no-brainer, right? Jose Morales, easy.
Third Base: Brian Buscher will lead the list, while Matt Tolbert, Daniel Valencia and maybe even Luke Hughes will give the team a few options.
Second Base: Harris and Punto are already on the roster, but Alexi Casilla will still be the young option here. Steve Tolleson has been bounced around defensively in Rochester this season.
Shortstop: Trevor Plouffe might be the only player available here, although as we know both Harris and Punto are available.
Outfield: Denard Span leads this list. That fills the outfield.
Starting Pitching: With Perkins' future with the team in doubt, and Liriano and Bonser not exactly sure shots for the rotation at this point, it almost looks like we're starting from scratch. But in addition to Baker, there's Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Anthony Swarzak and the newest stud on the block, Brian Duensing. As usual there will be a few battles for these last four spots.
Bullpen: This one is already almost full. Jose Mijares will have a spot, and then you're left with the one space usually reserved for the emergency starter.
Conclusions
For now I'll let everyone sit on this, think about it and talk it out. On Wednesday we'll start to put it all together--estimating how much money this team will have available on top of the $72,000,000 they'll already be spending to fill out the roster, filling out that roster with in-house options to figure out the weakest points to determine how many "holes" there really are, and finally to see what kind of players this team could target all things considered. Naturally two holes with X dollars means better players could be targeted than if, say, there were four or five real points that need improvement.
Already we know the drill: same old, same old. Third base and shortstop, and of course the rotation.
Who fits the bill? How do you see it all playing out?
0 recs |
117 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Pitching
If we could boost payroll by another 7 – 9 million or so, I would like a top a line starter.
Harden would be nice.
Harden Baker Slowey Blackburn with a competition for the 5th spot would be a very solid starting rotation.
If Liriano can still pitch next year I think he would be pretty good in the bullpen role while Perkins seems to be burning bridges as fast as he can.
As an aside – Kubel and Punto make virtually the same salary?!?!…god.
by clutterheart on Sep 22, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RE: Kubel & Punto's salary
This is only because Kubel would still be in his arbitration years if he wasn’t under contract.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, one immediately notices that
Punto and Cuddyer are probably making more than the Twins’ budget really can be comfortable with. Not that I expect either of them to be traded.
Really, they have to add an infielder at one of the 3 positions, at least. Really nobody under contract for next year strike me as a starting caliber player. There aren’t a lot of free agents that are appealing, so it may have to be a trade. Actually, you might be able to talk me into taking a flyer on Adrian Beltre on a “buy low” theory for 3rd base, since they seem disinterested in giving Valencia the job.
As for the rotation…if they have the money, sure, I would be pleased to see an addition. But I’m actually fairly comfortable with Baker, Slowey, and Liriano, and Blackburn is clearly going to have a job next year. With Swarzak, Manship, and Duensing fighting it out for the 5 spot. (preferably Swarzak, who I think has the most talent). It’s not ideal, but good starters aren’t cheap.
I suspect we’re going to wind up disappointed in the payroll, which has been too low for a while, and which I don’t think will be as high as it should be next year. One of the problems with this late season run (not that I’m sad it’s happening) is that it gives the FO an out for making significant changes.
As always, I’m worried about them misidentifying the problems for the upcoming season.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cuddyer?
I feel like I’ve had to say this all year all over, but look at his numbers, look at his years in the league, $9.4 million is not bad at all. (by the way, are you splitting up his bonus or something into that number, Jesse, because I think his salary is actually $8 million and the signing bonus would have been paid all at once?)
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I used all numbers straight off
Cots Contracts 2009-2013 salary obligations page.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not something I really want to argue about
But…I have looked at his numbers. First, given the price of corner OFs this last off-season, he is probably overpaid. Even on the premise that he isn’t, the reality is, with the way the Twins (don’t) spend money, they really can’t afford to pay essentially average players market rates. They have to pay the stars and get production from pre-free agency players.
Look, I like Cuddyer. I still think he was mistreated in 2003. He’s had 2 seasons (2006, 2009) where he’s been a better hitter than the average corner OF, one where he’s been about average (2007). He really isn’t a good defensive player. I’m not against him being on the team, but he strikes me as exactly the kind of player the Twins shouldn’t be paying.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know...
I hate those 30 HR, 85-90 RBI, 85-90 R, team leaders as much as anyone, so $8.5 million probably is too much.
2006 – very good season
2007 – average season
2008 – injury-plagued season
2009 – excellent season
for a Twins fan base that is constantly asking management to throw ridiculous amounts of money around every year, I just don’t think overpaying one of your leaders a million or two is something worth worrying about.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See what you did there?
You ascribed some half-formed opinion “throw around ridiculous amounts of money” of some vague group “…Twins fan base” to my argument that has nothing to do with that, and then pretended it was a rebuttal.
I don’t mind having Cuddyer on the team, but my points, which I thought were pretty clear, remain. If the Twins had a bigger payroll, paying Cuddyer a little above market rate would be no problem. He isn’t a bad player. But they have payroll restrictions, which was what I was writing about. Paying average players market rates is not something they can generally afford to do.
As for your descriptions of his seasons…I wouldn’t use the words “very good” or “exellent” to describe any of his seasons. I would use above average to describe 2006 and 2009. 2008 was injury plagued; it was also pretty bad when he played.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't be paying????
Why is Cuddy the type of player the Twins souldn’t be paying? Makes no sense?
by TC Brent on Sep 22, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many good corner outfielders
Can transition seemlessly to 1B and actually see their numbers improve? I don’t want to get into a ‘chemistry’ debate, but Cuddy is leading the charge right now. Maybe we should trade Cuddyer and take on Milton Bradley (sans contract). Or how about J.D Drew and his 100 million? Paying Cuddyer sends a strong message throughout the organization that being a team player and doing things the Twins way will be rewarded.
by Han Joelo on Sep 22, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im gonna go ahead
and say that most Corner outfielders could transistion to 1st pretty easily. As for seeing their numbers improve? I guess I would say SSS
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
point being
you pay the stars or few cogs that are important to winning. The Mauers, the Morneaus, the Bakers, the Bartletts (damn), and then you fill out your squad with bargains and minor league promotions.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But until you can replace Cuddyer's production, he IS one of those cogs.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dagnabit
never did I think I would be actively seeking the approval of SethSpeaks. Who’s ahead in the NFL pick so far?
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha!
Mr. Shooter Hunt is the leader through two weeks!! I’m wayyyyy down the list! HA!
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really
hope that he can make a comeback. Shouldn’t have bought that Hunt jersey after he dominated rookie ball.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
OK, but don’t we want and expect our front office to engineer creative and less expensive solutions? To be flexible? Isn’t that the FOs job? To replace production of players too expensive to keep? Not to say they can’t afford his contract, they obviously can.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is true,
I just think there are more important things for this front office to focus on before they worry about getting dollar for value with Cap’n Cuddles.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with this thinking is this: how are you going to replace his production?
It won’t happen internally, which means a trade or trying to get value on the open market. The fact of the matter, especially given all of those slippery intangibles, is that Cuddyer isn’t overpaid. Even if you look at FanGraphs, they think Cuddyer’s been worth about $6.4 million this season…which isn’t too bad. At least not bad enough to claim we’re being ripped off.
I’m happy to pay an extra couple million for consistency and leadership from a guy who’s produced like he has this year…but that’s subjective.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't look to
trade Cuddyer, but I’m definitely not planning on picking up his 2011 option. As an aside, I wonder how much Marlon Byrd is going to be getting this offseason.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd...
Completely guessing, he should get 2-3 years at $6-8 per?
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That 2011 option, I agree.
By that point I’ll be wondering.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone make the claim that
the Twins are being “ripped off?”
I certainly didn’t, and I seem to be the only one here questioning his contract.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not true
I do as well. Overall isn’t a fair market contract, but I question the allocation of funds.
I also questioned the allocation of funds to a closer and questioned whether it might be in the best interest of the team to actually trade him too. That did not go over well.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
overall, it IS a fair market value contract, as is Nathans.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only issue I have with that idea
is the same issue I have with Cuddyer—who are you going to use that can replace that production?
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although to be fair,
with the money you’d save off Nathan you could probably find a lesser reliever to fill in who might not be as good, but wouldn’t cost you much in the way of wins. It’s the way of the closer…most good relievers should be able to do the job.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
YES YES YES
where were you in Trade Nathan post. This was the exact line of thinking. Specifically Mike Gonzalez was the man I pegged as the lesser reliever.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
then you have both delmon, span, and gomez playing everyday. This is why I’m not actively advocating for his trade as opposed to Nathans. If only Delmon had panned out to be something. Anything.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just throwing out names
Marlon Byrd
Bobby Abreu
Xavier Nady
Endy Chavez
All of these guys will be paid less than Cuddyer. Two or three of them will out perform him. That’s my call.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, me too, Milt!
I thought dealing Nathan had some merit as well; he might have fetched some good talent. Nobody really liked that suggestion.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
that dealing Nathan should not be off the table for the Twins
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
… as well. I thought it was silly to sign him to that extension before 2008, and was proven wrong, but I don’t thin it’s crazy to consider dealing Nathan.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Ripped off" was just turn of phrase...I didn't mean to say that's what you said.
But it doesn’t change the point.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense
But you gotta be freaking joking with that whole comment
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
by fetch9 on Sep 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
“No offense, but you’re an idiot?” Way to contribute. How about some substance?
by Eric in Madison on Sep 22, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1
Michael Cuddyer’s bat has been worth nearly 18 runs this year. His glove has been pretty bad, but with UZR you can’t rely on 1 year samples. If you take his career rates, his glove is approx. a -4 run guy. That puts him somewhere at 3.5 WAR which is him earning his contract. Plain and simple.
Second, on the list of things to worry about, Cuddyer is pretty far down there.
Third, I thought you made a couple points above that other people did, but Cuddyer is definitely not the scapegoat of this team.
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
by fetch9 on Sep 22, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
couple comments
Harris should not be kept
Perkins, probably should at that price, but his days as a starter are O-Ver. And I’m not sure there’s room for him in the bullpen.
And Crain shouldn’t be kept at that price. Without either Crain and Perkins, our bullpen still seems plenty good. Nathan, Rauch, Guerrier, Mijares, Neshek, Boof, Slama/Delaney/Swarzak/whoever.
Remove these three and that’s another 3.5 M off the books.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My 2 cents
I think Harris should be kept. as long as he costs less than 1 million than he is likely helping the cause.
Delmon and possibly Crain and definately Perkins need to go. I like Delmon Young and wish him well. He had a good attitude and has put in the effort, but if he is not going to get 500 AB next season then he needs to move on. That knocks 4.5-5 million off of next years total.
Hopefully we get 1 middle IF whether it be a 2b SS or 3b over the winter, probably somene in the 1-2 million range and a starting Pitcher (Pavano on a 2 year 10-12 million).
This may be an eventful offseason as we get to find out how much a 3 time batting champ Catcher costs.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
by doofus on Sep 22, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Harris
I agree with you. We just don’t have any options in AAA who can do what Harris can do. Being so thin in the minors really hurts the big leauge club.
by clutterheart on Sep 22, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harris
I agree… ideally he stays… can play all four infield positions and has a decent bat. Nice bench option.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But what's really the value
in being able to play every position, if you play every position extremely poorly?
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
depth...
he’s not a starter at any of the positions. He’s not ‘extremely poor’ at SS, and he’s at least adequate at 3B and probably would be at 1B too. When you’re a backup who can hit, you just want adequate, make-the-routine-play defense, and for the most part, Harris does that.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
disagree
on the point that Harris isn’t extremely poor at SS. But that is an opinion thing that can’t be proven. But I would point out that he’s second to last in UZR/150 with SS with at least 1500 innings over the last three years. Beating only Betancourt.
Anytime Harris is at SS, I view it as a really bad thing for our team. Just because someone has played a position in the past, doesn’t mean that they should ever be put there again. See Cuddyer (CF, 3B)
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Harris is awful at shortstop. He should never go anywhere near it.
Most important thing for a utility infielder is the ability to play shortstop. It’s nice that Harris can hit, but it would be even nicer if he had a 2 win glove, or whatever.
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
by fetch9 on Sep 22, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know I'm probably over-dramatic...
But our bullpen should be excellent next year. Manship, Crain, Mijares, Guerrier, Neshek, and Nathan.
Mauer’s going to be getting at least half of the money Target Field will bring in, but I wouldn’t mind Harden getting a chuck of it as well. Harden, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, and Duensing? That has the potential to be a pretty solid rotation.
And, of course, our middle infield. That may be the problem we can’t address.
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
by TwinsTarget on Sep 22, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bullpen
Will (or Should) be in the Rochester starting rotation to start 2010. Add Bonser and Rauch at the start. Realize that Neshek likely won’t be with the team to start the season. But he, Delaney, Slama and Burnett could be ready at some point during the season. That’s a strong bullpen.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly
I think you might be undershooting the first year arbitration estimates. When Omar Infante gets 1.3 M after ‘06, you can be sure Harris’ price is going to be more than .6 M. I think by doubling the 1st year arbitration numbers you’d get closer to the actual amount they’ll receive.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look around the league,
you’ll see only the star players (or at least players better than our guys entering arbitration) are receiving that much money. Omar, well…bad things happen. I may have under-estimated a little bit, but in the grand scheme of things the combined numbers won’t be off by more than a couple hundred K. Given the part time/injury-prone nature of the list at least, I hope this is the case.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to respectfully disagree
just looking at the Twins roster
Nick Punto received a raise to 700K with a career .628 OPS and only 660 Plate appearances
Harris has an OPS 100 points higher and 1000 more PAs under his belt.
Jason Kubel, had a better pedigree, but after the 07 season received a raise to 1.3M with a similar hitting line in 770 plate appearances.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay that's fair enough.
So if we bump Harris to $750,000, who else is getting significantly underpaid? Liriano to $750K? Maybe Gomez to $700K and Perkins to $600K? That’s an additional $600,000 right there. I’m not sure how much more you could offer Perkins and Bonser after their DL stints.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts...
I think Harris gets $1-1.25 million. Liriano will probably get $1.5-2 million. Bonser and Perkins could each get $1-1.5 million. I think if Gomez is a Super 2, he’s good for at least $1.25 million. I’d guess Guerrier gets closer to $3 million and the Twins may want to get him locked up for a second or even a third year.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a lot of money for not much production.
How are these players going to make the case that they deserve that kind of money considering how they’ve played the last two seasons? None of the position guys have been everyday players. If all of these guys are getting over a million bucks in their first year of arbitration, the Twins are getting screwed.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
history
They will compare their careers to the careers of other players, offense, defense, etc. They will find examples of similar players who got this number or that number.
Arbitration years are where players really make the biggest average jump. I’m not going to look it up, but the average player’s contract goes up something like 400-4500% in arbitration. Of course, a 400% increase from $500,000 is (either $2 million or $2.5 million). That’s obviously significantly altered by the star types, but arbitration is a huge cost. That’s why they aren’t always easy decisions.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree with seth
it’s all about comparing players overall performance to previous arbitration cases. Harris is due for over 100% raise simply because he’s played alot and been OK. Liriano’s been an all-star and his career numbers are OK and he’ll get at least a 200% raise. It doesn’t matter he couldn’t stay in the starting rotation this year.
I agree MattyG gets closer to $3m and may get a multi-year deal.
I don’t know what Neshek and Bonser get because of their injuries.
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minor nitpick - signing bonuses
According to Cot’s Contracts, your numbers are high for both Morneau ($1M) and Cuddyer ($917k). I assume that’s because you are including their signing bonuses prorated across the life of the contract, but I don’t think that makes sense when considering major league payrolls – that money has already been spent, as the whole point of those bonuses was to shift some of those contracts to 2008, since they were way under budget after Johan and Torii left.
Figuring in the prorated signing bonuses makes sense in the NFL, where it’s used to calculate salary cap figures, but I would hope that the Twins are only considering base salary (and likely-to-reach bonuses, if they’re all that substantial) in their budgeting for just this year.
Interestingly enough, speaking of bonuses, I noticed while looking up those numbers that Cuddyer, Mauer, and Morneau all have an identical set of performance-based bonuses: $0.1M for WS MVP, $0.1M for MVP ($75,000 for 2nd, $50,000 for 3rd), $50,000 for LCS MVP, $25,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star selection. Disregarding playoff bonuses for the moment, I’d guess Mauer’s got another $150k coming this year, with another $25k for Morneau (assuming a Gold Glove is unlikely for him).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I actually used Cots to generate these numbers.
I followed their link for 2009-2013 payroll obligations, which doesn’t stipulate anything about the signing bonuses. I know the opening day payroll number uses pro-rated portions of the bonuses, the payroll obligation page is set up differently.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like they're prorated
I checked out the 2009-2013 obligations page, and it’s just as you said – there’s no entry for the signing bonus, so it appears that they used the prorated values instead. The master list on the team page has the correct values, and I’d maintain that those are more valuable for this exercise (although it’s not a huge difference).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No More retread third basemen
Please. I’m sure somebody has the list. If anything, it would be nice to trade Delmon to someplace like San Diego for maybe a Chase Headley—a swap of guys who haven’t reached their potential. Or maybe Laroche, who is blocking Alvarez in Pit. It seems like DY is being showcased a little now that there is more playing time available, and luckily he’s at least swinging a little better. So my plan would be to pick up a 3B in a trade that would be no net addition in salary.
If 7-9 million really is the figure, it’s probably not enough to convince one of the injured former aces (Harden, Sheets, Bedard) to come pitch outside as they rehab. And the true front line arms available in free agency will just be too expensive. I’m happy with the guys we’ve got. Bonser will be in the mix. Bring back Pavano if he’s cheap enough—I think he’s been a good influence on the bench. And/or find another Pavano. As opposed to in the past, when the Livan’s were signed in the offseason, the in season addition seemed to work a lot better.
The MI: Like Pavano, I like the Cabrera pick up, but not enough to re-sign him. Maybe sign O-Hudson, but more likely make a minor trade and try to find the next Marco Scutaro. Perkins will be useful here. Someone like Martin Prado or Skip Shumaker or Blake Dewitt.
Summary: No splashy free agents. Jettison Harris and Perkins/Bonser for a similarly priced MI. Jettison Delmon for a young 3B to compete with Valencia and Buscher. Resign Mauer, and then consider trading Ramos/Revere and others for a young, cheap rising star at any of the positions of need.
Sorry, no salary calculations.
by Han Joelo on Sep 22, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mike Lamb?
Really? I knew we were paying him this year, but a final payment next year too? I guess 100K is a drop in the bucket, maybe some sort of buyout.
I remember he was part of a feature story last summer about the grind of the MLB schedule. He talked like a man much older than his 32 years and with that grey in his beard, he looked much older, too.
I’ve heard life on the road away from your family in professional sports is no picnic, but it was hard for me to feel sorry for a guy earning millions looking to postpone his retirement until the ripe old age of 33 so that he can qualify for a generous pension.
Anyhow, he spent the entire summer in Buffalo of the International League. Probably riding buses instead of planes and staying in cheaper hotels in smaller cities.
by DavidRF on Sep 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lamb...
had a third year option with a $100,000 buyout.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go after JJ Hardy
The Twins have plenty of underperforming high potential talent (Delmon, Perkins, Liriano) and a potential starting catcher (Morales) to offer in return for Hardy. They desperately need a SS and Milwaukee doesn’t.
If they can swing a deal for Hardy with some combination of arb eligible talent then they need to look at a free agent for 2B/3B. There are several options on the free agent market (DeRosa, Polanco, Beltre, etc) and the Twins might be able to wait until one falls in their lap like Crede did.
The only overpaid guys are Cuddyer (good but not $9M good) and Punto. If they can find a better way to spend that money they should pursue it. There are lots of Cuddyer replacements on the market (Abreu, Vlad, Branyan, etc).
by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
forgot to add one part...
“The Twins have plenty of underperforming high potential talent (Delmon, Perkins, Liriano) and a potential starting catcher (Morales) to offer in return for Hardy… who is another high potential, underperformer.”
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
also...
“There are lots of Cuddyer replacements on the market (Abreu, Vlad, Branyan, etc).”
Abreu will likely get something like 3 years at over $30 million.
Vlad might be done. What does he have left.
Branyan is a 1B/DH. I think the Twins are just fine there.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu, 3-30?
Whoever would make that deal deserves to be fired on the spot. His perception may have increased from last offseason (probably shouldn’t have since he’s the same player) so I doubt a man forced to sign a on year $5 M deal is in line for $10 M a year, at much less than 3 years.
1 year $8 million is probably more like it.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu
he’ll hit nearly .300, get on base a bunch, and drive in over 100 runs. His agent can compare his production to that of Milton Bradley, Raul Ibanez and those guys both got 3 and $30 last year. Maybe 3 and $30 is too high, but he certainly won’t be accepting another 1 year deal. Maybe 3 and $24 or 2 and $18 or something like that.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Seth over-values Abreu and under-values Guerrero.
Either of them could pull down a one or two year deal, and in the market they’re entering they’ll have to take lower value deals just to get a job. I could see both of them signing 2/$15m.
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Better to have a high potential underperformer
At a position where you only have low potential underperformers now!
by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harris
What does he do exactly? The Twins want someone like Tolbert as the futility infielder and right now Tolbert is playing and Harris is not. If Harris is going to get a raise, he should get it playing for another team.
The team needs stability in the infield and having one guy that is an everyday player (as Cabrera has been) would be very helpful. I think it should be a shortstop, but a second or third baseman starting 155 games would make the other positions better. Hardy would be a really good candidate. I expect that Valencia will get his chance by Memorial Day and second will fall to one of Tolbert/Casilla/Punto. They really need to solidify one position to strengthen all three.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 22, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Utility IF
Fair point, if Harris is going to make over say $1.25 million, maybe it’s best not to offer him arbitration since they do have plenty of utility infielders such as Tolbert, Punto, Casilla, Tolleson, Dinkelman, Huber, etc. I have no problem with that thinking.
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The eternal struggle of value VS the dollar...
by Jesse on Sep 22, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooray!
I’ve recruited for the ’Don’t offer Harris arbitration camp!"
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooray!
I’ve recruited for the ’Don’t offer Harris arbitration camp!"
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he ain't worth $1M
They should just cut him now. There is virtually no difference between a $1M one year contract and a $450k contract.
by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
There is a difference between those two amounts for a small market team, for one.
And Harris is probably worth $1m. But that’s not the point. If we have some guys that can do what he does for half the cost, let them do it.
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if the replacements do it better
This isn’t a small market team anymore, they’re a mid-market team. And they’re a contender. I would be in favor of replacing Harris with Tolbert if I thought Tolbert was $1M better. I don’t think that’s the case.
by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reality
We are a mid market team. But, the Twins still push the company line of being a small market team and act like one.
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps they're unaware of that new stadium
The only market bigger in our division is Chicago. Detroit has a higher population base but it’s shrinking rapidly and the Michigan economy is in the toilet. The Twins should be able to spend as much as St. Louis or Seattle.
by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am going to be
very disappointed if payroll isn’t increased over 90 M in one of the next two years.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I too believe your arbitration estimates are too low
I found a pdf of all arbitration cases from last year. If someone wants to study up, they can probably get some better figures.
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/docs/MLBSalaryArbitrationDetails_2009.pdf
First, there’s a great chance that Perkins won’t be a super 2 and arbitration eligible. He’ll be a serf one more year because of spending the end of the season at Rochester.
Liriano will get at least $1.5m. He’s been an all-star.
MattyG will be probably get just under $3m and deservedly so.
Harris will get above $1m and will be a candidate to be non-tendered.
Gomez will probably get just under $1m.
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cot's
Cot’s Contracts has 2009, 2008 and 2007. You can go through there and see plenty of surprises.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/05/2009-arbitration-eligibles.html
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many variables right now
- The Twins will increase their payroll to between $90 M and $100 M for 2010. Whether they end on the high side or low side depends on how the team does these last two weeks.
- The Twins will trade or nontender several players on the arbitration list. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harris, Perkins, Young and one of Crain or Guerrier gone, one way or another.
- The Twins will likely rip up Mauer’s contract and sign him to a new one, rather than extend the existing contract. That could easily double his expected salary for next year, and then some
- The Twins will likely sign a few free agents for next year. Who they sign is contingent on how aggressive they are in the trade market. But, at minimum, I expect them to sign a starting pitcher like Carl Pavano, which could add as much as $8-10M to the payroll.
For all these reasons, I don’t like to project this early in the process.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree on Mauer
Twins should make every effort to sign him to an extension and have him play next year on his current deal. Which they should be able to do unless Mauer is a prick about it and I can’t see him being that way. Of course, if a deal can’t get done because of that, rip away. Whatever it takes.
I just think Mauer would be open to the argument, look, you want us to surround you with guys, and if you play under your current deal next year that gives us $X million more to spend in 2010.
by ajmargarine on Sep 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mauer
I think you can do both. I think you can sign him to an extension, but pay his signing bonus in 2010, so in fact, his 2010 salary is what it already is PLUS the bonus. Everyone wins. :)
by SethSpeaks on Sep 22, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
per Shooter Now
“The Minnesota Twins have to decide after this season whether to exercise a $10.5 million option for the final season (2011) of Michael Cuddyer’s contract. If not, Cuddyer, who has led the Twins back into division contention this month, could become a free agent after next season, the same as catcher Joe Mauer. "
http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_13393397?source=rss&nclick_check=1
I was not aware that this was the case in his contract. Pick it up or no? Obviously I am in the no camp.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who replaces his production?
Not Delmon. Cuddyer is the only right handed bat in this line-up other teams pitch around. Without him, this team would stink.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 22, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tosani
or Roberts, or some scrap heap bargain. Or even put Kubel out there. 10.5 M for 2011 Cuddyer sounds like a bad idea to me.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right handed bat
The closest right handed bat to Cudyer in the system is Winfree, and he’s about replacement level. Tosoni is a decent left handed bat, but we’re swimming in them.
And you have to be joking with Roberts. He’s Jason Tyner. And he bats left handed.
Cuddyer has a 125 OPS+. You don’t replace his bat with a “scrap heap bargain”. And if you move Kubel out there, you open up a hole at DH. You need both Kubel and Cuddyer in the line-up next year. Unless you want to go out and get a 125 OPS right handed bat. They don’t grow on trees.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 22, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bah
We know very well that Eric Hinske would have completely replaced Kubel’s production this year.
Seriously, that was Dave Cameron’s contention during the offseason when the Twins re-signed Kubel.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Normally I think Dave Cameron is awesome
but Hinske over Kubel… really?
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 22, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You obviously
Didn’t read correctly. We have to make a decision on his 2011 option after this season.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which
I think you have to decline. $1 M buyout. Then you can discuss signing for less pointing to the free agent market.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wonderng why you were saying not to sign him for 2010
He is signed through 2010 with an option for 2011. Still, there’s nobody close to his ability in the minors. Guys with his ability on the free agent market make around $10 million.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 22, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anniversary
I saw this bit of Twins Trivia on mentioned on a national site today.
Its the 41st anniversary of this memorable Twins game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196809220.shtml
I wonder if anyone that versatile is available for the Twins this offseason. :-)
by DavidRF on Sep 22, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That must have been the year that Killebrew blew out his
hamstring stretching for a throw at first. Never forget that one. End of Twins season right there. But I thought that a guy named Charlie “Cornbread” Manuel filled in for him. And, I never really ever figure it out if the Phillies current manager was, in fact, Cornbread.
by Old Twins Cap on Sep 22, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure...
This was 1968. Killebrew missed a huge chunk of time (57 games, from July→Sept) but it was mainly Rich Reese and Bob Allison that replaced him. And they were 15 GB when he got hurt so the season was pretty much lost anyways.
Killebrew had already made it back by the time of this game, but didn’t play that day. It showed some versatility amongst the other 8 guys to hop around the diamond a bit while Tovar took each of their positions for an inning.
Charlie Manuel was a Twin from 1969-72 and never played an inning at 1B. He is the same guy as the Phillie’s manager.
by DavidRF on Sep 22, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
$2 million relievers
Do we need Crain, Rauch and Guerrier all making $2+ million a season. Whew!
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Sep 22, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
expensive for sure
But I think it’s worth it, definitely for Guerrier and Rauch, maybe for Crain. Value per season, from Fangraphs (values for 2009 so far):
Guerrier
07: $3.7 million
08: $ -1.9 million (ouch)
09: $4.0 million
Rauch
07: $5.6 million
08: $2.9 million
09: $2.2 million
Crain
07: $-1.0 million
08: $2.4 million
09: $1.5 million
Crain’s 2006 is notable for a 4.5 million value as well.
Draw your own conclusions, but I think for Guerrier and Rauch it’s worth paying ~2 million, Crain I think depends on whether you think he’s turned things around or not. I would probably take a risk on him, but I’d probably wait until the end of the season to make a decision.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 22, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
I see the dollar value metrics thrown around a lot, but how well do they actually correlate for free agent contract values? I realize that there are guidelines for what teams pay per win, but I don’t necessarily trust that marginal wins are actually what teams base their bidding on.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well obviously that’s not what teams base their bidding on, because the free agent pool every year is an extremely small piece of the total player pool
http://twinkietalk.com
http://thecollegehockeyblog.com
by fetch9 on Sep 22, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Nathan
Wow, I just can’t get over Nathan’s salary. Living and St. Louis and seeing what the Cardinals have been able to do this year with Ryan Franklin (!?) I can’t help but think there has to be cheaper alternative. I’d like to see him moved to give a little wiggle room in trying to sign/trade for a legitimate ace starter or third baseman.
by stltwinfan on Sep 22, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Part of it was timing
I think at least part of Nathan’s big contract was due to timing – the Twins had just lost Hunter to free agency and traded Santana because they couldn’t re-sign him, so the three-headed Nathan, Cuddyer, and Morneau signing (they all happened at roughly the same time) was partially to show the fan base that they were actually willing to spend money.
I agree that the Twins are overpaying for a closer, but while PR doesn’t directly help the team on the field, it can translate into revenue, so it wasn’t a completely irrational move to overpay for a popular player while providing some comfort to the fans.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
#%$(#(*^)#@!
Where were all you guys when I proposed this 6 weeks ago? I was hung for bringing it up!
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 22, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had your back,
not that that meant much from an old hippie troll from Montana who doesn’t know anything about baseball, but I had your back anyway.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 22, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For good reason!
Trade Nathan? Still crazy after all these weeks. Best closer in the AL.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is!" -John "Bluto" Blutarsky
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 23, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
