Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)
by Jesse on Sep 24, 2009 6:48 PM EDT
in Speculation
57 comments
Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.
We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.
Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel
Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano
You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.
Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.
| Player | Original Estimate | Updated Estimate |
| Boof Bonser | $500,000 | $900,000 |
| Carlos Gomez | $600,000 | $1,000,000 |
| Brendan Harris | $600,000 | $1,100,000 |
| Francisco Liriano | $550,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Pat Neshek | $500,000 | $700,000 |
| Glen Perkins | $550,000 | $900,000 |
| Delmon Young | $1,750,000 | $1,750,000 |
| Jesse Crain | $2,300,000 | $2,300,000 |
| Matt Guerrier | $2,100,000 | $2,600,000 |
| Totals | $9,450,000 | $12,750,000 |
We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.
That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.
For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.
One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.
Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf
I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.
Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe
See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?
Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco
Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.
Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel
The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.
It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.
How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.
I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.
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Another gamble
The Twins can try some contracts with Cabrera or Pavano that they could trade away during the season, if someone develops.
The BIG gap is that 2nd-SS-3rd. You can’t go with any of the currents as starters. Okay, maybe one. And then you can sit on another one or two as backups. Yet if you take a gamble and start a rookie and third, do you want a free agent and Punto manning the otehr two spots.
Anyway you look at things, I don’t see Casilla coming back, unless he can spend anotehr year in the minors (can he?)
No player can be cut more than 20% if they aren’t a free agent. So Crain is expensive.
I find it mind-boggling that players can spend a year on the DL and nearly double their salaries in arbitration.
If Perkins wasn’t offered arbtration, I’m sure he’ll sign for a lot less than the Twins would be required to play to be on another team.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Sep 24, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ss would need to come in a trade, or end up being the weak spot again this year
If they add elsewhere, its fine to have a replacement level player at one position. There are a lot of young shortstops and a few that would be available in trades most likely.
JJ Hardy and about 3 guys from the Rays are the first I can think of, but I know there are others. Seeing as we have no top teir talent at this position, I think it would be a good idea to package some real talent for a multi-year answer at short. Names like Swarzak, Duensing, dare I say Cuddyer? all come to mind, but it really depends on who you’re getting back. People say we wouldn’t want to trade Cuddy because we wouldn’t be able to replace his production. Production comes in more than one way. A good fielding good hitting shortstop is better than a great hitting ok fielding corner outfielder. As long as we’re getting good value back, I don’t think anyone outside of our core couple of guys should be “untouchable.”
3b I think we can stick with a one-year player again, Crede would be an option at the right price, and hopefully we’ll have someone ready for 2010. A Pavanoish pitcher would be good in the rotation, although just having Slowey back will be a big boost.
Other than that, I’m pretty excited about next year. Back to having a solid bullpen for once (I hope), our rotation that recieved so much hype coming in to this year will shake this year off and show their true colors, and, oh yeah, we have the best player in the world. Should be fun.
by lookatthosetwins on Sep 24, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cuddy isn't going to Tampa or Milwaukee
Neither of those teams is going to take on his salary to play a position they already have filled.
Tampa has
Upton, Crawford, Zobrist, Joyce, Gross, Perez et al.
in the outfield for next year. they do not need Cuddyer and his salary to fill a spot that is likely going to be filled with someone who is either better (Crawfrod, Upton), or cheaper and possibly better ( Gross, Joyce, Zobrist).
Milwaukee needs pitching not hitting. They are going to struggle to pay Prince what he wants I doubt they take on Salary when they will likely be in the same dilema the Twins will be in next year, lots of young players hitting arbitration raises.
The Braves may be interested in his services for Yunel Escobar, but I doubt that Tampa or Milwaukee would be interested.
by TC Brent on Sep 25, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FA for next year
Scutaro and Pavano 5-7 million each. let Perkins and Bonser are Gone to even out some of the money and the Twins spend close yo 90 million next year.
I want to say DeRosa but would he want to come here after our Front office pretty much dissed him last winter by not trading for him after seeing what Cleveland gave up to get him.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
by doofus on Sep 24, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Scutaro=Type A
Prior is retired. Beltre’s option was picked up. Slim pickings all around.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 24, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My Choices
Pavano-Starter
Iwamura-Second base free agent
JJ Hardy—shortstop acquire in a trade with Milwaukee
Kennedy-Third base platoon with Valencia
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 24, 2009 11:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Iwamura is a target since he plays 2B and 3B with a good glove at both. Hardy could bounce back to be an All-Star. Still not sold that Pavano is the answer in the rotation unless he’s cheap. Recent history has shown that you don’t start a land war in Asia and you don’t pay big $$ for Carl Pavano.
by DJL44 on Sep 25, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this as well
although if you get kennedy you wouldn’t need Iwamura and vice versa. Punto is going to be on this team next year and he could serve as back up 2b/Valencia’s caddy at 3b (or so could Iwamura or Kennedy depending).
by TC Brent on Sep 25, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Punto is a utility player
Every time he starts the year as a starter, he puts up numbers comparable to Houston Jimenez. When he starts the season on the bench, he plays his way into the line-up.
I don’t know if you need both Kennedy and Iwamura. If you got Iwamura, he could start the year at second and move over the third if necessary, or vice versa. I just don’t want to ink in Punto as a starter. The thought of it makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. ANd I think Kennedy could be a good cheap upgrade over Buscher, with more versatility.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 25, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Splashy Trade
Would seem in the offing. Something unexpected. There’s not a free agent on that list that would sell tickets, and winning more games is debatable. Here’s guessing that Kubel will be the centerpiece of the trade, along with Mike Lamb’s option.
by Han Joelo on Sep 24, 2009 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Twins were to trade an OF,
would it be Kubel? He’s young and cheap. He might be easier to trade than Cuddyer, but in the long run it would be better to deal Cuddles. Not that I want to. I’d keep them both.
by Jesse on Sep 25, 2009 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt Cuddy would get traded
As Cmath as noted, he’s the only reliable RH bat currently on the team. Plus there’s that whole team leader/intangible thing. And I would assume that most GM’s are as astute as the cadre of people here and other places who have figured out that Cuddyer isn’t worth his contract.
I like Kubel as well, but he is the most realistic ‘sell high’ trade candidate. I apologize for discussion purposes that I don’t know his contract status, i.e. how many years to free agency, but it just seems like he won’t be around long term with the outfield depth rising through the system. On the relief side, ditto Crain, and who knows how much more Guerrier will have in the tank. Throw in Perkins and maybe one of the top prospects, and you’ve got some decent trade chips there.
The Mets are a mess, how about buying low on Reyes? Can you imagine Reyes, Gomez, and Casilla together?
by Han Joelo on Sep 25, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
funny
When I suggested this a couple of weeks ago, I got pounced on. I agree that Kubel is valuable precisely because he’s a good player. He should be able to get us a Hardy, or even better, someone younger like one of the Escobars, or one of Tampa’s prospects. He’s young, cheap and proven, while still improving. He’s going to get us something in return.
Cuddyer has a bigger contract, and his offensive numbers aren’t as good, so he won’t bring as much in trade. Still, to us, I think he has some value. His defense in RF is decent, he’s RH, and he can back up Morneau. He’s also a long-time twin, and has “leadership qualities”, if you value that kind of thing.
by snolls on Sep 25, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
starting pitching
is what the Brewers need. They don’t have a place for Kubel to play. If you’re talking about Alcides Escobar, not even remotely close.
by Salty on Sep 25, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lamb's option?
I don’t think you can trade a player who you’ve released – his contract is just a sunk cost that the Twins have to pay.
A splashy trade would be interesting, but I’d point out that the Twins have made two splashy trades so far under Bill Smith, one of which was mediocre and one of which was an outright disaster, so I hope you’ll forgive me if I am not too anxious for any trade bigger than Gardy getting a new water softener.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 25, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt
and guess that the Lamb’s option comment was a joke.
by lookatthosetwins on Sep 25, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Actually, now that I think of it, that would be a funny way to have the other team throw in $100k in a deal – “Twins trade Jason Kubel and the rights to Mike Lamb’s contract for Tim Lincecum.”
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 25, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah it was a joke
And simply a matter of principal. Maybe that extra 100k could be the tipping point in a draftee signing bonus. Anyway, I’m just sick of the Batista’s, Lamb’s, Everett’s, Boone’s, Castro’s; the list goes on, and on, and on.
Anyway, trade Kubel and give Huber a shot. Then people could make up fun names like Jastin Kuber.
by Han Joelo on Sep 25, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kubes is funny enough
He’s been great this year. .300 and 24 HR. I’m not going to get rid of him for a nickname to be named later.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is!" -John "Bluto" Blutarsky
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 25, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Resign Pavano
Try to make something happen at MI
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Sep 25, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm just glad
no one has tossed out Rich Harden or Erik Bedard. If we’re going to sign a free agent pitcher, he needs to be able to throw 190+ innings
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by fetch9 on Sep 25, 2009 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm calling Terry Mulholland.
I hear he’s still in game shape.
by Jesse on Sep 25, 2009 4:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden
See a few posts down.
I want him. Badly.
by clutterheart on Sep 25, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Free Agent List
Blech what a bunch of stinkers. The only one I am interested in is Scutaro and he must be a type A guy who would cost a lot of money and draft picks.
If we are going to sign a type A guy it should be a #1 pitcher like Harden.
Twins need an #1 starter more than a SS, 2B, or 3B. Especially when we see which FA are out there.
So baring a trade I am sticking to my guns and hoping for Harden.
by clutterheart on Sep 25, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why Harden
This is Rich “I haven’t topped 150 innings in 5 years” Harden we’re talking about as an Ace? I like Baker better than Harden. In my opinion, the pick of that litter is Doug Davis. He might sign a 2 year deal for $8M per and he’d be worth every penny.
I don’t see them signing a free agent pitcher when they have such glaring weaknesses in the infield. Bringing in a good glove infielder for SS will make the whole pitching staff better.
by DJL44 on Sep 25, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doug Davis
Is a solid pitcher.
I would like him on my team too. But Harden has a chance to be awesome and I hope its for the twins.
by clutterheart on Sep 25, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden = Type A
My guess is the Twins’ draft choice will not be protected. Hence they will not sign Type A free agents.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 25, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the rotation
we actually have guys who have a chance to be at least average. In the infield, we have absolutely no chance of fielding a league average player (obviously I’m not talking about morneau). If we were going to sign or trade for one guy, I would hope it would be an infielder.
I’m not one of the people who believes you HAVE to have a “true” #1 starter. 5 league average pitchers is as good as 1 good one 3 average ones and 1 bad one. We are getting Slowey back, and I’m optimistic about Swarzak and Duensing as back of the rotation starters.
That being said, signing a pitcher is better than signing nobody. Hopefully we get a new 2b ss 3b and sp. Then we’ll be set.
by lookatthosetwins on Sep 25, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I too would love a new 2b, 3b, SS
But If the FO is going to blow its wad on a FA, it should be a pitcher who has a chance to dominate, stop bad streaks, and get outs.
We have 2 of the top 15 offensive players in the game. Cuddy, Kubel Span are at least above average offensively
So 5 out of 9 are in the + category.
All we need is 4 other guys to play at replacement level production and our offense is just fine. While a #1 pitcher vastly improves our shaky rotation and helps our bullpen gain depth.
by clutterheart on Sep 25, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Down the line.......
Kubel is a nice chess piece. He has gotten playing time in the outfield to display his skills. Maybe this was done on purpose.
Unless Morales gets a first baseman’s glove (wish he had doen that in Rochester), Cuddyer is the ncie piece to have around. He’s Mr. Twin, in a way, with management and the fans. He can backup first (or second or third) and eventually become a DH/OF when all the young talent comes up.
Be interesting to see the pricetags on Crede and Pavano. The problem with a Crede and an incentive contract, you kinda get stuck like you did this year…can’t disable him if he can walk but not play, thus weakening your bench for awhile, otherwise someone calls “foul” if you don’t have the at-bat opportunities.
There’s always Sid Ponson, Livan Hernandez and Ramon Ortiz!
Someone like Kennedy would be great to play third, back-up second, and be the super utility guy if need be and Valencia proves worthy of starterdom. It would be nice to have a solid 2nd-sacker and SS, too, and regulate Punto to the bench, although then you have to ask about the status of Harris and Tolbert (netcha Harris gets traded because he’s not worth a mill+ to the Twins), not to mention the Alexi Casilla (shades of Rivas) problem.
Twins could trade Young to the Cubs for Milton Bradley!
Middle-relief could be expensive. Wow! Rauch, Crain and Guerrier all making more than $2. How high can Guerrier go as mid-relief? Could he be a closer if the Twins package Nathan? Is Crain closer potential down the line? The Twins still have Boof and Neshek in the mix, and the young guys down on the farm — Delaney, Slama, Burnett to mention just a few.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Sep 25, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about Delmon to the Angels?
They have three decent MI’s—Aybar, Izturis, and Kendrick. Brandon Wood still lingers as well. At any rate, the Angels have Abreu and Guerrero as free agents, and Mathews isn’t exactly a world beater any more. Delmon could go home, and follow in the free swinging ways of Vlad.
by Han Joelo on Sep 25, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does a couple million bucks make any difference?
Jesse, I noticed that the base figure you used is the figure that includes Cuddy and Morneau’s prorated signing bonuses, so the Twins might have a bit closer to $9M than $7M to spend (those bonuses add $1.917M to the actual salaries for the year, but that money’s already been paid). Apologies for harping on that, but I figure I should mention it again, in case the extra $2M can make a difference.
I’m not sure how much that expands the pool of available players (not sure if there are a lot more $9M guys than 7M guys), but it might allow the Twins to get a pair of $4-5M guys, if they want to continue the “buy low and hope they rebound” strategy with slightly higher-end players than have failed them the last few years.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 25, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
That could make a difference. $4-$5 million should get the Twins a couple of nice options, even if they’re not ideal. It would be good for depth that we couldn’t find in-house.
by Jesse on Sep 25, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade for Hardy
get it done. What would it take? Their biggest needs are SP and C.
Convince them Morales is a starting C. He could reasonably be expected to hit .280/.335/.380. Trade Morales and Swarzak.
How far off am I?
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 25, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They’ve got options for #5 starters, too many of them and Swarzak might not be a #5 starter. I thought the Twins were a cornucopia of starting pitching including an abundant farm system. I know there were a bunch of injuries, but if everyone was healthy is there a quality extra guy?
by Salty on Sep 25, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well than
if you want Hardy you would have to trade Blackburn?
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 25, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Straight up?
Let’s do it. Blackburn can be replaced by a free agent or within much easier than you can get a decent SS. You wouldn’t have to worry about getting burned in that trade – this is Nick Blackburn, he’s not getting any better.
by DJL44 on Sep 25, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My impression
is a deal like that is exactly what they’re looking for. They’ve also got some nice infielders in the minors who are going to be minor league FAs that could be sweeteners.
by Salty on Sep 25, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much do we trust Hardy to rebound?
Is Hardy a good bet to come back? I was just looking at his peripherals for the last three years on FanGraphs, and there were a few worrisome things:
K%
2007: 12.3
2008: 17.2
2009: 20.5
Line Drive %
2007: 17.2
2008: 15.5
2009: 13.6
The walk rate has gone up, but only by half as much as the strikeout rate, and his HR/FB this year was barely over half last year’s.
I was wondering if maybe he was chasing more pitches or something, so I also checked out his swing % numbers. Looking at the zone/out-of-zone swing data, it’s all pretty consistent except one big one: Out of zone contact percentage, which dropped from 66% to 58%. He took more pitches this year, but the take rate increased more on pitches in the zone than on pitches out of the zone, which isn’t exactly helping things.
I wonder if maybe he’s altered his approach somehow or had some health/vision issues – a combination of increased take rate, decreased power results (LD% and HR/FB), and increased misses at strikes out of the zone make me think that he’s either not seeing the ball well (and thus swinging later) or lost some bat speed (which would have a similar effect). I’d be interested to see a spray chart for him (not sure where to find that), as I’m guessing he’s been late a lot of the time.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Sep 25, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
never mind
they don’t need C. They have nice catching prospects at both AAA and AA.
by Milt on Tilt on Sep 25, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And a couple guys who could hold the fort for a year if they needed.
by Salty on Sep 25, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice part 2 Jesse
One tiny nit: I’m 95% sure that Glen Perkins will not be arbitration eligible after this season as he won’t qualify for Super Two status. When we sent him down to AAA on Sept 2 he is no longer accruing major league service time. So he loses 32 days of time that would have made him a Super Two.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/super-twos.html
He has to finish in about the top 16 of that list of players of 34 players measuring by service time. He was 13th coming into the season. His 32 days missed will allow all the players below him who spent their entire seasons on MLB rosters to pass him.
I think he’ll be a serf one more year. This is why his agent thought about a grievance earlier when he came off the DL and was sent to Rochester. If he stayed on the DL, he would have likely been a Super Two.
by ajmargarine on Sep 25, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also Gomez isn't a lock for arbitration
Joey Devine, A’s 1.171
Matt Albers, Orioles 1.170
Brian Wilson, Giants 1.169
Rajai Davis, A’s 1.167
Dana Eveland, A’s 1.167
Willie Eyre, Rangers 1.163
Mike Adams, Padres 1.161
Omar Quintanilla, Rockies 1.159
Jesus Flores, Nationals 1.158
Shawn Riggans, Rays 1.157
Hunter Pence, Astros 1.156
Glen Perkins, Twins 1.155
Jason Hammel, Rockies 1.153
Matt Garza, Rays 1.149
Tim Lincecum, Giants 1.148
Nick Masset, Reds 1.146
Jeff Karstens, Pirates 1.144
18th Carlos Gomez, Twins 1.141
Super Two players are taken from a list of all MLB players with between 2 and 3 years service time. The top 17% of that list get Super Two status. It’s impossible to tell at this point how many Super Two’s there will be. The last 3 years there have been 16, 16, and 13 Super Two’s.
Gomez was 18th coming into the season. He’ll move up one spot on the list passing Perkins. I’m not going to look further, but if anyone wants to see how many of those other 16 guys were optioned to the minors this year and how long they were down, we can probably know for sure whether Go Go gets arbitration or not.
PS. Perkins was actually 12th coming in to this season.
PPS. The number above is in Years.Days, so 1.141 is one year, 141 days of service time.
by ajmargarine on Sep 25, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Remember when alot of us were hoping the Twins would send Gomez to AAA for a month so he could play every day and maybe further his development?
Well, if we did that Gomez would not get Super Two status. So sitting him on the MLB bench this year will cost the Twins an extra $1m+ over the next few years. Not to mention that it maybe, possibly hurt his overall development (although I agree that that point is debatable).
by ajmargarine on Sep 25, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they're both interesting candidates right now.
If Perkins gets his way, maybe he gets awarded service time. I don’t know where Gomez will fall. I just wanted it covered, because in these kinds of debates I’d rather err on the side of the “pay more” side of the scale.
by Jesse on Sep 25, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of names intrigue me...
The only starter that would be potentially high reward is Brett Myers. Health issues and being a big league A-hole make me nervous there though. I think the Twins cubhouse could keep in line.
Mark DeRosa would be a very good add. 2 or 3 years at $6 mil per would probably get it done. Put him at 2nd to start the season and see what Valencia has. If Danny is a train wreck, DeRosa slides over to 3rd. He is 36, but he’s been very durable. Also a terrific clubhouse guy.
Also, don’t understand the JJ Hardy love. He’s an extraordinarily streaky hitter and fielder. Hot as heck for 1 month…absolute toilet for the next 2. Numbers look OK at the end of the year, but way too much of a roller coaster. I wouldn’t give up what is being discussed on here for him.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
by mutleyil on Sep 25, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mauer, please change positions....
Change to 3rd, have Morales catch. That fills our needs at 3b so we can spend that money on a new SS. I am so sick of punto. 5 mil is too much to spend for the occasional Sportscenter Top Ten appearance….
by Btown80 on Sep 26, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We dont need a BIG name
if we resign cabrera and keep punto in the 9th spot…even if he hits 230 with his glove and speed its worth it, IF and IF we can get a guy at 3rd like derosa just let punto play 2nd. or maybe sign someone like orlando hudson and let punto play 3rd. for pitching we should just keep pavano we still got baker blackburn slowey when he gets back all we need is a 5th starter whether lirano comes back to an even average pitcher and perkins comes also we still got options like duensing manship and swarzak. we cant trade morales thats crazy he will be are back up C next year cuz i doubt Red will come back unless he wants to coach which i hope he does. JJ Hardy is a well below average fielder and hitter now and i would honestly rather have punto,harris, or even alexi at SS. I think its time we give up on Young but not Gomez because his speed and fielding are much to good. Also with neshek coming back is it possible to trade Nathan with Young and make gurrier or mijares the closer? All im saying is we dont need a big name just sign cabrera and pavano and maybe get someone like doug davis and derosa…what about someone cheap like Abreu??? hes a great player and if u put him in our lineup in left with cuddy in right and span in center. Abreu hits 300 with 15-20 homers 100+rbis and steals 30 bases and if we signed him he would be batting 7th or 8th in our lineup!!! depending on who we sign at 3rd or 2nd
by bighead306 on Oct 1, 2009 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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