2009 Offensive Projections In Review

by Jesse on Jan 10, 2010 8:58 AM EST in By the Numbers Comment 27 comments

Let's just get this out of the way: for the most part I did a really bad job.

Oddly enough, the 2008 version saw me project the offense pretty accurately for a number of our guys. So naturally I was optimistic I'd do just as well this time around. Turns out I was just a flash in the pan.

Catchers

Name	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Joe Mauer Proj	142	530	176	36	4	10	82	53	.332	.422	.468	4
Mauer Reality	138	523	191	30	1	28	76	63	.365	.444	.587	4
Mike Redmond Proj	43	139	40	7	0	1	7	12	.288	.322	.360	0
Redmond Reality	45	135	32	5	1	0	11	19	.237	.299	.289	0

Mauer - I thought I projected a good year for Joe. I need to start re-thinking what a "good year for Joe" means.

Redmond - Playing time was about right, but something fell off the table for him this year. I will always remember his triple (BELLY FLOP!), and for the last half decade you couldn't have asked for a better backup catcher. Good luck, NBP, you'll be missed.

Infielders

Name	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Justin Morneau Proj	158	600	174	38	4	29	67	87	.290	.361	.512	1
Morneau Reality	135	508	139	31	1	30	72	86	.274	.363	.516	0
Alexi Casilla Proj	128	431	119	20	2	4	35	51	.276	.331	.360	15
Casilla Reality	80	228	46	7	3	0	22	36	.202	.280	.259	11
Nick Punto Proj	130	429	112	21	3	1	40	64	.261	.324	.333	12
Punto Reality	125	359	82	15	1	1	61	70	.228	.337	.284	16
Brian Buscher Proj	96	306	86	15	0	7	27	45	.281	.339	.402	1
Buscher Reality	61	136	32	3	1	2	24	35	.235	.360	.316	1
Matt Tolbert Proj	51	112	29	8	2	2	9	13	.259	.314	.420	8
Tolbert Reality	71	198	46	7	1	2	21	37	.232	.303	.308	6
Matt Macri Proj	44	101	28	5	0	3	6	17	.277	.318	.416	3
Macri Reality	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Brendan Harris Proj	112	381	104	25	3	7	36	90	.273	.336	.410	2
Harris Reality	123	414	108	22	1	6	29	78	.261	.310	.362	0

Morneau - Injuries played a big part in his lack of production in the second half, so had he been healthy he was probably on pace for a career year. My playing time was off but I still pegged him within 6 point of OPS.

Casilla - I was really hoping for some contributions from him this year. Instead he just looked worse. 11-for-11 in stolen base attempts was great, and a big hit in game 163 was great, but going forward I have concerns about his staying power.

Punto - He walked a lot last year. My projection was based on a typical Punto-esque year, but LNP struggled big time in the first half.

Buscher - These predictions were pre-Joe Crede. They were also optimistic based off his 2008 performance.

Tolbert - Looks like I was expecting Tolbert to be Punto with a little extra power. I still think he can be that, but I definitely missed the mark here.

Macri - Too many infielders, especially after Crede came onboard.

Harris - Every other month (April, June, August), Harris had a great month. The other three...not so much. It all culminated in a big down year for Harris, his worst since becoming a role player in 2007.

Outfielders

Name	Game	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	Avg	Obp	Slg	SB
Michael Cuddyer Proj	138	511	137	26	3	15	54	69	.268	.338	.419	4
Cuddyer Reality	153	588	162	34	7	32	54	118	.276	.342	.520	6
Carlos Gomez Proj	119	402	106	21	5	6	27	98	.264	.310	.386	27
Gomez Reality	137	515	72	15	5	3	22	72	.229	.287	.337	14
Jason Kubel Proj	150	525	146	26	3	23	55	97	.278	.347	.471	0
Kubel Reality	146	514	154	35	2	28	56	106	.300	.369	.539	1
Denard Span Proj	122	427	123	24	8	6	64	81	.288	.381	.424	21
Span Reality	145	578	180	16	10	8	70	89	.311	.392	.415	23
Delmon Young Proj	121	423	126	22	2	12	29	92	.298	.343	.444	11
Young Reality	108	395	112	16	2	12	12	92	.284	.308	.45	2

Cuddyer - I really tempered my prediction after he sorely under-performed against my 2008 projection. I'm happy to have been wrong. Cuddyer's power returned, hopefully for good now that he's healthy.

Gomez - I was hoping for improveent, but we got the opposite.

Kubel - I was looking for duplication, we got improvement. Woo-hoo!

Span - Playing time was a tough one, but I still pegged Span within two points of his actual OPS.

Young - You can't be safe on all predictions and I definitely wasn't with Young. I'll still look for improvement next year, but I'll probably reign it in. Just a little.

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Comments

You'd better project Punto

for 500AB’s this year (Gardy’s Boy). This of course is not Punto’s fault, but Gardys who can’t seem to understand that Punto should be a late inning defensive sub or part time fill in. Casilla might be done, with Tolleson and Plouffe next in line.

by b1 on Jan 10, 2010 9:41 AM EST reply actions

I dunno, Jesse, you did OK

Nailed Morneau and Span’s rate stats. Nobody could have realistically predicted Mauer’s season. Frankly, where you missed, you can’t really blame yourself; extremes are hard to predict.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 10, 2010 10:25 AM EST reply actions

And this is why we play/watch the game.

How incredibly boring would it be if the projections were always right?

by archie2227 on Jan 10, 2010 10:48 AM EST reply actions

+1

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on Jan 10, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

boring yes

but you’d be living large like Biff Tannen circa 2015.

my floor is looking pretty dirty... BETTER GET OUT THE BROOM!!!

by natetheskate on Jan 10, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

well...

Nerds On The Internet are quick to point out that in the two iterations of 2015 Biff was either a grumpy loser old man or dead (that’s what it meant when he faded away after returning), I think you meant to say “circa alternate 1985”; although Zemeckis has said that he always though that Lorraine shot him in the 90’s which is why he faded away upon travel back to 2015. This does bring up some grandfather paradox questions such as how could Biff travel from 2015 to give himself the book in 1955 if he was dead in the 1990’s, though these questions could theoretically be answered if we subscribe to the alternate universe theory of time travel as popularized by supposed time traveller (and internet sensation) John Titor.

Hope this helps!!

"This ain't a football game, we do this every day." - Earl Weaver

by Daniel Louden on Jan 10, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think many people projected Mauer to turn into Alber Pujols.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 10, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Albert's French cousin?

by Adam Peterson on Jan 11, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

lol!!!

yes! great catch Adam!!!

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 11, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

My memory must be going

I forgot how bad Casilla and Gomez were…

by clutterheart on Jan 10, 2010 12:37 PM EST reply actions

I love Punto's line from 2009

If I told you a player hit .228/.?/.284, you’d probably bet the guy was ridiculously overmatched in the majors and that the ? was something like .270, maybe—after all, why would anyone ever come close to walking someone who hit like that?

But dude walked 61 times, right behind Mauer, Morneau, and Span. That’s 61 times the opposing pitcher slapped his forehead and thought, “I just walked Nick freaking Punto.”

by Luke in MN on Jan 10, 2010 12:38 PM EST reply actions

Here, here

This is why I’m not as petrified at Punto being in the lineup as some others. I expect him to bat better than .230 (though the slug will probably stay around .300). If that’s the case, he could be sporting a .350 OBP. That’s a nice addition to a lineup that has turned into a bunch of hard hitting, base plodders outside of Span.

by PinkiePinkerton on Jan 10, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Hey if he bats ninth and plays 2B

I’m ok with that line. If he bats second and plays 3B I’m not.

my floor is looking pretty dirty... BETTER GET OUT THE BROOM!!!

by natetheskate on Jan 10, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

I laughed every time Punto walked

I guess they were walking him to get to Span.

"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 10, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

Sometimes it's just hard to throw strikes

Punto is pretty good at fouling off pitches. Even major league pitchers have stretches where they can’t throw a dozen good strikes in a row.

by DJL44 on Jan 10, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

61 times?

"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 10, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

Yup

Proof that batters can “plate discipline” irrespective of their ability on balls hit with the bat.

by DavidRF on Jan 11, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

He must have learned how to get pitchers to throw balls from Luis Castillo

by Steven Ellingson on Jan 10, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

Me too!

HAHAHAHA

Dr. Neau - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRTTmxEf_bE

by hrbekmorneau on Jan 11, 2010 2:48 AM EST up reply actions

Punto offense

If Punto can make enough contact to get his average up in the .270-.280 range, then with the massive walk rate he’d be in the .370-.380 OBP range. In other words, a quality #2 bat in between Span and Mauer. Check out these monthly OBP splits for Punto last season:
Apr: .343
May: .244
Jun: .371
Jul: .337
Aug: .310
Sep: .407
Oct: .400
Any coincidence that the Twins best months were Oct (5-0), Sep (16-11) and June (15-12)?

Also interesting regarding Punto’s line was his breakout by position:
As 2B: .254/.382/.308 (169 AB)
As 3B: .200/.273/.200 (10 AB)
As SS: .206/.297/.267 (180 AB)

by Adam Peterson on Jan 11, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

You can see why so many

fans want to pick-up a FA to take Punto’s spot.

by b1 on Jan 11, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Diminishing returns?

If Punto can make enough contact to get his average up in the .270-.280 range, then with the massive walk rate he’d be in the .370-.380 OBP range.

Punto’s had his average that high twice before, in 2006 (.290) and 2008 (.284), but his OBPs those years were only .352 and .344, respectively. Just from quick glances through his career numbers, it looks like there’s a bit of an inverse relationship between Punto’s batting average and his walk rate – when he’s hitting well, he doesn’t walk as much. My guess is that he changes his approach when he’s struggling, trying to take and foul off more pitches.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 12, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions