2009 Offensive Projections In Review

Let's just get this out of the way:  for the most part I did a really bad job.

Oddly enough, the 2008 version saw me project the offense pretty accurately for a number of our guys.  So naturally I was optimistic I'd do just as well this time around.  Turns out I was just a flash in the pan.

Catchers

Name Games AB Hits 2B 3B HR BB SO Avg Obp Slg SB
Joe Mauer Proj 142 530 176 36 4 10 82 53 .332 .422 .468 4
Mauer Reality 138 523 191 30 1 28 76 63 .365 .444 .587 4
Mike Redmond Proj 43 139 40 7 0 1 7 12 .288 .322 .360 0
Redmond Reality 45 135 32 5 1 0 11 19 .237 .299 .289 0


Mauer - I thought I projected a good year for Joe.  I need to start re-thinking what a "good year for Joe" means.

Redmond - Playing time was about right, but something fell off the table for him this year.  I will always remember his triple (BELLY FLOP!), and for the last half decade you couldn't have asked for a better backup catcher.  Good luck, NBP, you'll be missed.

Infielders

Name Games AB Hits 2B 3B HR BB SO Avg Obp Slg SB
Justin Morneau Proj 158 600 174 38 4 29 67 87 .290 .361 .512 1
Morneau Reality 135 508 139 31 1 30 72 86 .274 .363 .516 0
Alexi Casilla Proj 128 431 119 20 2 4 35 51 .276 .331 .360 15
Casilla Reality 80 228 46 7 3 0 22 36 .202 .280 .259 11
Nick Punto Proj 130 429 112 21 3 1 40 64 .261 .324 .333 12
Punto Reality 125 359 82 15 1 1 61 70 .228 .337 .284 16
Brian Buscher Proj 96 306 86 15 0 7 27 45 .281 .339 .402 1
Buscher Reality 61 136 32 3 1 2 24 35 .235 .360 .316 1
Matt Tolbert Proj 51 112 29 8 2 2 9 13 .259 .314 .420 8
Tolbert Reality 71 198 46 7 1 2 21 37 .232 .303 .308 6
Matt Macri Proj 44 101 28 5 0 3 6 17 .277 .318 .416 3
Macri Reality -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Brendan Harris Proj 112 381 104 25 3 7 36 90 .273 .336 .410 2
Harris Reality 123 414 108 22 1 6 29 78 .261 .310 .362 0


Morneau - Injuries played a big part in his lack of production in the second half, so had he been healthy he was probably on pace for a career year.  My playing time was off but I still pegged him within 6 point of OPS.

Casilla - I was really hoping for some contributions from him this year.  Instead he just looked worse.  11-for-11 in stolen base attempts was great, and a big hit in game 163 was great, but going forward I have concerns about his staying power.

Punto - He walked a lot last year.  My projection was based on a typical Punto-esque year, but LNP struggled big time in the first half.

Buscher - These predictions were pre-Joe Crede.  They were also optimistic based off his 2008 performance.

Tolbert - Looks like I was expecting Tolbert to be Punto with a little extra power.  I still think he can be that, but I definitely missed the mark here.

Macri - Too many infielders, especially after Crede came onboard.

Harris - Every other month (April, June, August), Harris had a great month.  The other three...not so much.  It all culminated in a big down year for Harris, his worst since becoming a role player in 2007.

Outfielders

Name Game AB Hits 2B 3B HR BB SO Avg Obp Slg SB
Michael Cuddyer Proj 138 511 137 26 3 15 54 69 .268 .338 .419 4
Cuddyer Reality 153 588 162 34 7 32 54 118 .276 .342 .520 6
Carlos Gomez Proj 119 402 106 21 5 6 27 98 .264 .310 .386 27
Gomez Reality 137 515 72 15 5 3 22 72 .229 .287 .337 14
Jason Kubel Proj 150 525 146 26 3 23 55 97 .278 .347 .471 0
Kubel Reality 146 514 154 35 2 28 56 106 .300 .369 .539 1
Denard Span Proj 122 427 123 24 8 6 64 81 .288 .381 .424 21
Span Reality 145 578 180 16 10 8 70 89 .311 .392 .415 23
Delmon Young Proj 121 423 126 22 2 12 29 92 .298 .343 .444 11
Young Reality 108 395 112 16 2 12 12 92 .284 .308 .45 2

 

Cuddyer - I really tempered my prediction after he sorely under-performed against my 2008 projection.  I'm happy to have been wrong.  Cuddyer's power returned, hopefully for good now that he's healthy.

Gomez - I was hoping for improveent, but we got the opposite.

Kubel - I was looking for duplication, we got improvement.  Woo-hoo!

Span - Playing time was a tough one, but I still pegged Span within two points of his actual OPS.

Young - You can't be safe on all predictions and I definitely wasn't with Young.  I'll still look for improvement next year, but I'll probably reign it in.  Just a little.

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