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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Twins, Players to Exchange Arbitration Figures Today

Should none of these cases actually be settled, arbitration hearings will take place during the first three weeks in February.

Here's a look at our Minnesota Twins' arbitration-eligibles.

Name

'10 Age

Service Time

Arb Status

'09 Salary

'10 Estimate

Jesse Crain

28

5.039

3rd Year

$1.7 MM

$2.3 MM

Matt Guerrier

31

5.056

3rd Year

$1.475 MM

$2.6 MM

J.J. Hardy

27

4.164

2nd Year

$4.65 MM

$5 MM

Brendan Harris

29

3.112

1st Year

$466,100

$1.1 MM

Francisco Liriano

26

3.104

1st Year

$430,000

$1.5 MM

Pat Neshek

29

3.087

1st Year

$440,000

$700,000

Carl Pavano

34

11.161

Type B Free Agent

$1.5 MM

$7 MM

Delmon Young

24

3.034

1st Year

$1.152 MM

$1.75 MM


 As the Twins settle their arbitration cases, we'll update you here.

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Hopefully some of the figures some people predicted will come in on the lower end. If the payroll is a little lower than expected after arbitration AND we use the $5 million from Washburn, there is no reason Hudson or Lopez can’t work.

Anybody expect multi-year deals for any of these guys to buy out the rest of their arbitration years?

by Twins Territory on Jan 19, 2010 9:15 AM EST reply actions  

Not with this group, no.

Young still has a lot to prove, Neshek’s been hurt, Liriano’s been hurt and was disappointing a little last year, and Harris is a bench/role player. There’s not a lot of upside in signing any of them to more than a one-year deal.

by Jesse on Jan 19, 2010 9:18 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

I agree, premature to give any of these guys a long term deal. Next on the horizon, IMO would be Slowey and/or Blackburn, but we should wait until after this season to make a decision there.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 19, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Span

I’d love for the team to lock up Span long term now. Left handed leadoff hitter who gets on base as well against lefties as righties? Yes, please.

by Gunnarthor on Jan 19, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Span

I’d love for the team to lock up Span long term now. Left handed leadoff hitter who gets on base as well against lefties as righties? Yes, please

by Gunnarthor on Jan 19, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I can see the Twins trying to sign him long-term after this season

if he has another good year. Right now he’s still a serf, so it won’t happen, but once he hits arbitration it’s something I could get behind pretty easily.

by Jesse on Jan 19, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Harris has agreed to a 2-year deal. I too really didn’t expect any multi-year deals, especially with Harris (since they have several bench options).

by Twins Territory on Jan 19, 2010 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I am guessing

Young will want $3 million. Twins will want to pay $1.75 million. Final agreement – $2.5 million

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 19, 2010 9:35 AM EST reply actions  

$1M too much

Delmon hasn’t proved he’s worth more than the league minimum yet. If it’s $2.5M this year and he has a repeat performance we’re headed toward non-tender next year.

by DJL44 on Jan 19, 2010 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

Suffice it to say, I hope he has a breakout season. We could use another big right-handed stick.

by Jesse on Jan 19, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

as it was

I was just off by One hundred K. Good job to me and to you sir!

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 19, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Since Delmon made $1.152M last year

per the CBA, he cannot take more than a 20% pay cut with the Twins. We should be offering in line with a first year arbitration player who hasn’t shown very much to date. I’d probably offer between $1M and $1.25M, depending on how willing I am to send a proposed pay cut as a message to Delmon.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 19, 2010 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

$2.5M

Sometimes I forget how much the Twins weigh “traditional” stats…and who knows about defense. Perhaps they underestimate how negative an effect Delmon’s OF defense has on the team.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 19, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Delmon's 2010

My prediction is 295/330/480. This is basically what he hit in 2009 minus that awful 50 AB after he came back from his mother’s funeral.

by Jon Kammerer on Jan 19, 2010 10:45 AM EST reply actions  

I'd take this from Delmon offensively

but unless his defense improves quite a bit, he’s still well below average value-wise. Maybe moving out of the Dome will help Delmon defensively.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 19, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Can't hurt moving outdoors

The Dome LF is pretty tricky.

That 290/330/480 slash line is going to get overpaid really quickly. It’s a good line but still below average compared to other corner outfielders. Johnny Damon hit .282/.365/.489 with better defense than Delmon and he can’t get a contract. .265/.335/.430 was league average offense in 2009, which coupled with an average LF glove is a replacement outfielder worth $1M on a free agent contract (see Ryan Church).

In order for Delmon to produce at an all-star level with his defense he has to hit like Adam Dunn. I still wish he was in RF, his fielding wouldn’t be quite so poor there.

by DJL44 on Jan 19, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

If he’s not an offensive monster or better on D, he’ll be a nontender candidate next year. For 1.5-2M he’s worth having around in 2010.

by Jon Kammerer on Jan 19, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd love that triple slash.

I need to get to my predictions soon, I’ve usually done them by now…but I’m still waiting on one more move.

by Jesse on Jan 19, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

A great example of why arb-eligible players weren't guaranteed an arb offer this year: Jeff Francoeur

He hit .280/.309/.423 last season and still gets a raise from $3.375 MM to $5 MM. That’s not in line with his production at all.

by Jesse on Jan 19, 2010 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

an example of

how arbitration is in some ways worse than FA to baseball economics…

by caluofmn on Jan 19, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

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