Fixing the Twins
by BCTwins on Jan 22, 2010 1:34 AM EST
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PrintThe Twins are still seeking to improve the club; yet, the payroll is getting in the way. Right now, according to Jesse's payroll analysis, the Twins have about $87.245 million locked up in their roster, minus Clay Condrey and Brian Duensing - so lets assume that the payroll, without any more additions, would be about $88.5 million. Word is that the Twins payroll could be $95 million this 2010 season. If that is the case, it leaves the Twins FO with $6.5 million, roughly.
What can the Twins obtain for $6.5 million?
Starting Pitchers:
Many of us have heard the names Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets banded around this winter; Bedard will probably re-sign with the Orioles and Ben Sheets will most probably go to the Cubs or Mets.
Taking a deeper look at the SP market, however, I found a few names that have not been spoken of by anyone, not even over at MLBTradeRumors. Those pitchers are: Chien-Ming Wang and Pedro Martinez. Both are/were great pitchers prior to injuries. Martinez, this past year, came back with the Phillies and had himself a pretty good season. Lets take a closer look at these pitchers.
- Pedro Martinez
Using my limited knowledge and resources of FIP, here is what I found on Pedro Martinez: Martinez, for his career, has a 2.91 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, .291 BABIP, and a 75.9% LOB%. That is a very impressive career line for Pedro, who is now 38.
It appears that Pedro has lost velocity specifically on his fastball, which now is down around 88.9 mph, yet has maintained the velocity on his other pitches: slider, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
Pedro figures to be a 1.7 WAR pitcher in 2010, according to Fans[23]. Starting first with the optimist Bill James, Pedro is projected to have a 3.67 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and a .303 BABIP...oh and a 8.90 K/9. Bill James projects Scott Baker, meanwhile, with a 3.94 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, .305 BABIP, and a 7.02 K/9, yet Baker figures to be a 3.7 WAR, according to Fans[23]. Taking Chone (who takes more of a pessimistic approach), Pedro projects as a 4.75 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, .318 BABIP, and a 6.90 K/9....Baker projects with a 3.97 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, .301 BABIP, and a 6.98 K/9 (apparently Chone likes Baker more than James does!).
Jumping to Cot's Contracts, I see that Pedro made about $2.6 million with the Phillies this past season. Would Pedro sign to a Minor League contract with the Twins? I think he possibly might. I suppose it depends upon who would have the better offer; naturally, if Pedro was offered a Major league contract, I see no reason why he would not sign with that team. In my opinion, Pedro Martinez would make a very potent low risk/high reward pitcher to battle Liriano, Duensing, Swarzak, etc., for the 5th spot in the rotation.
- Chien-Ming Wang
Looking at Wang's career line, he has a 3.99 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, .294 BABIP, and a 69.1% LOB%. Certainly less impressive than Pedro, but he is certainly worth a look.
Unlike Pedro, Wang has maintained a steady velocity with his fastball, hovering around 91.8 mph, in addition to his other pitches: slider, changeup, and the split-finger.
According to Fans[23], Wang figures to be a 1.7 WAR pitcher like Pedro. Thus, starting first with our optimistic friend Bill James, Wang figures to have a 3.81 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, .306 BABIP, and a 4.37 K/9 rate in 2010. Once again, taking Chone, Wang, according to their predictions, figures to have a 3.94 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .309 BABIP, and a 5.42 K/9 in 2010 (numbers quite similar to Chone's prediction of Baker).
Over at Cots Contracts, Wang, in 2009, signed a $5 million contract with the Yankees. However, with his injury history, Wang should expect a pay cut for his services in 2010. If the Twins offered Wang a $1.5 contract + performance bonuses (i.e. $50,000 for 5, 7, 10, 15 starts, $100,000 for 17, 20, 25 starts; $50,000 for 50, 75, 100 days on active roster). Wang could potentially earn anywhere between $1.5 and $3 million. I see no reason the Twins should not at least explore Wang as a low risk/high reward pitcher.
Plus, think of Gardy's ecstasy at having both Wang and Punto on the roster...I can hear it all know: "When Wang threw his ball, and the batter hit it out to Punto, the way Punto gobbled it up was a site for sore eyes!"
Second Baseman:
All Twins fans hope for an upgrade somewhere in the infield. My preference is 2B. With Valencia in AAA, I believe that the pressing need is for a 2B more than a 3B. Punto/Harris can man 3B until Valencia is ready for the big show, but the Twins do not have an up and coming 2B prospect. Thus, I believe that 2B should be the Twins area of focus.
Most Twins fans have been looking at Lopez as their upgrade at 2B. Certainly, Lopez would be that upgrade over the trio - Casilla/Tolbert/Punto. So, lets look at some of Lopez' numbers.
In his career, Lopez holds a .338 OBP, .400 SLG, .131 ISO, .323 BABIP, 9.4% BB%, 20.9% K%, 20.0 LD%, and a 19.0 O-Swing% with a 57.5 O-Contact%.
According to Fans[70], Lopez projects at 2.7 WAR player (Chone projects him at 2.2 WAR). Moving on to Bill James, Lopez projects out with a .352 OBP, .400 SLG, .119 ISO, .330 BABIP, 0.58 BB/K, and .333 wOBA. In comparison, James projects Denard Span, the most similar player to Lopez on the Twins roster in my mind, at .377 OBP, .403 SLG, .103 ISO, .346 BABIP, 0.73 BB/K, and a .345 wOBA. All in all, not too much difference between one of the top 5 AL leadoff hitters and Lopez. Although we may think that James has projected Lopez with much optimism, those lines are extremely similar to all of the other projections. One interesting point worth noting though is Chone's projection of Lopez' worth: while Chone projects Lopez at 2.2 WAR, they don't give him much credit in the batting department at -2.5, but favor his fielding at 1.0. Obviously, Lopez would be an upgrade over Punto, who Fans[70] project at 1.6 WAR, while Chone projects him at 0.7 WAR.
What type of salary does this entail? I think if the Twins should offer Lopez a two year deal at $4 million a year with an option for a third year - at $6.2 million - with a buyout of $1 million, that would most assuredly secure Lopez for the Twins.
In his career, Hudson maintains a .348 OBP, .431 SLG, .149 ISO, .320 BABIP, 8.8% BB%, 16.4% K%, 20.9 LD%, and a 17.7 O-Swing% with a 66.3 O-Contact%.
According to Fans[36], Hudson projects at 2.6 WAR (with Chone projecting him at 2.2 WAR). Bill James projects Hudson at .353 OBP, .409 SLG, .129 ISO, .324 BABIP, 0.61 BB/K, and a .337 wOBA. Once again, James seems to have predicted in line with Chone, Marcel, and Fans[36], with only slight differences in each projection. In value, Chone favors Hudson's bat, at 2.2, but does not favor his fielding, -1.0 (with Fans[36] at 6.4 hitting and -2.3 fielding).
What type of salary will Hudson demand? Word is that he still wants a $7 million, 3 year contract; however, if Hudson brings down his price to around $5 million, 3 years, then I think the Twins should snatch Hudson up.
It was not until comparing Hudson to Lopez that I discovered that they are very similar players, each with his strengths and weaknesses. Who would I prefer at 2B in the 2 hole in 2010? I think I would have to go with the younger Lopez on a three year deal. Hudson, it seems, is at that age where he could suddenly drop off a cliff; therefore, I do not favor a three year deal for Hudson. Lopez, being younger and quite similar to Hudson, is who I personally prefer.
I would have liked to cover 4th outfielders, but I think I shall call this a post. Perhaps later on I shall cover the 4th outfielder spot.
Who could the Twins get for their $6.5 million? I think the Twins could secure Lopez on a three year deal and simultaneously, take the low risk/high reward chance on Pedro Martinez. Twins can always free up salary room too by trading away Crain, Perkins, etc. Please let me know your thoughts...
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Nice post
I agree with you that 2B should be the main area of focus now. I’d also try to pick up Lopez first because of his age, but would also be happy with Hudson for 1-2 years. 3 seems to be pushing it to me.
As far as the SPs go, for either Pedro or Wang it would depend a lot on the money offered I think. I’m not sure how much either is willing to accept, but we have to realize it’s unlikely that either one would pitch very many innings. I’d imagine either would make only a limited amount of starts, and most of those starts would be 5 innings. That could really wear down our bullpen. So either one is enough of a risk that I would only take the risk if we have a few million to spare after getting a 2B. What you said about getting Lopez and one of the SP would make sense to me, but I wouldn’t sign Pedro or Wang if it was the only move we made.
I actually think it might be better to pick up a 2B and see if there are any worthwhile 4th OFs that would accept an inexpensive contract. That might be a better improvement than taking a risk on Pedro or Wang. I’m worried enough about Delmon not improving that I’d like to find a 4th OF if we can.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 22, 2010 2:03 AM EST reply actions
2nd Base
This is absolutely the area of need for the Twins. There really is no player within the system that they have confidence in to be a fixture for the future at second base as they neglected to add Singleton and Dinkleman to the 40-man this winter. Casilla is obviously not the answer and I can’t imagine Punto being the long-term solution either. With the market fairly saturated and few suitors, this appears to be the perfect situation for the Twins to pounce on either Lopez or Hudson at a reasonable rate. I doubt either player gets a 3-year deal at this point, though. My guess is that the best they’ll do is 1 year, plus an option. Either of these guys would fill the glaring hole in the 2-spot and have the advantage of being switch hitters to balance the order a bit. I’d be happy with either one, but I’ll take the younger Lopez as I like his versatility.
I think Lopez or Hudson could be had for about 5-6 million, so that might be the last move, but if they have a little bit left, I’d target Crede on a smaller deal, or a reclamation project at pitcher like Lowry or Wang. They certainly need another lefty, so Lowry would fit the bill. Wang’s ground ball tendencies would suit the Twins well also.
I’m not terribly high on Endy Chavez after a major injury as that could sap most of his value… defense. From all accounts, Pridie is a solid defender, but that’s about it. Perhaps Eric Byrnes or Randy Winn could be had for $1 million? We could certainly use a veteran hitter not named Brendan Harris on the bench.
by TheBlackFreighter on Jan 22, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
FP'd
Do you know who I actually like as an under-the-radar pickup? Noah Lowry. I want to do a little due dilligence on him this weekend, but he’s the kind of guy who could sign a minor league contract and then surprise you. If the Twins were happy with his health, this is one of those realistic signings I can envision that could actually help.
I'm on board here
I thought I saw something about Lowry in line for a contract this week so he may be gone. If he’s still around, he does more for me than Wang, Martinez and even Wasburn. Extending an offer to him is probably the best bet out there on low-cost pitchers.
by PinkiePinkerton on Jan 25, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to know what they will spend
The fact that they offered Wasburn a 5M deal says there’s something. I don’t really care which of Lopez or Hudson we’d target as both are sizable upgrades, though if you are going to sign a multi year deal, I tend to agree that Lopez is the preferred target. Then again, I’d imagine that Hudson is going to end up with a 2 year deal tops, so if you are looking for a reduced committment, you may have to pay a bit more, but you will have less years. I also hope that they are serious about bringing Crede back for another year. I cannot imagine him signing for much more than the minimum, with some incentives, but he’s well worth it if he matches last season’s production, and there is still the potential (albeit slim) that he stays healthy and puts a nice season together. It gives Valencia some time, and both give us some needed depth. I fear having to start Punto, Tolbert, Harris, and Morales towards the end of the season like we did last year. By adding a 2B and a 3B (even an injury plagued one), keeps Harris and Punto, who are acceptable backup options, on the bench where they belong. Punto is a defensive sub, and Harris can be used as a bat that can sub for anyone on any given day. I’d kind of expect Crede to get hurt, but that buys needed time for Valencia who should be ready to step in by July.
The real question is what is the team’s budget. If the 6.5M that you mentioned is in fact available, then Lopez at 4M and Crede at 1M is affordable and provides us with a much upgraded infield. You’d even have 1M left over that you could in theory sign Jim Edmonds to be a 4th OF. It would be unfortunate, however, that we don’t have more ground ball pitchers on our staff.
At this point, your 5th starter is Perkins/Liriano/Duensing. Duensing has options, so I’m guessing he starts in AAA, which is fine. One of Perkins or Liriano ends up in the pen with the other starting (my money is on Liriano right now). In the event of injury or ineffectiveness, Perkins can start. We’d have some fairly reasonable depth at pitcher, and while I agree it isn’t ideal depth, as long as we aren’t dealing with several major injuries to the pitching staff, the front 5 should be fine. I suspect those moves would leave us in a very good position to walk away with the central. If people were healthy, that team stands a reasonable chance of advancing in the playoffs.
Here’s the frustrating thing… This seems obvious, yet so far BS has not done much. I keep hearing names like Davis, Washburn, and Quinlan. None exactly excite me, and none really make sense unless there is a trade in the works. This team simply needs a few tweaks, and you are looking at a 95 plus win team. Sadly, none of the names mentioned in most rumors will be much help getting us close to 95 wins.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 22, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions
Wang
That’s an interesting idea since, at his best, he’s supposed to be a ground ball machine which would fit in well with the Twins. I’m curious about his health though, but, yeah, it might not be a crazy idea to take a flier on him.
I'd much rather see an offensive signing than pitcher.
The last few years, signing middle of the road veteran SPs has not worked out so well for the Twins. Although I do agree that Wang is an intriguing move, I’d still prefer somebody like FLopez or O-Hud. The offense seems to let Minne down more often than the pitching.
by wild.twins.ravens.win on Jan 22, 2010 12:11 PM EST reply actions
Lopez or Hudson?
What most people forget about Lopez, he was more less shown the door with two different teams (Cincy, Wash). Selfish and lazy seem to be consistant when former teams describe him. This is the reason why he will most likely receive only a 1 year deal, most likely as role or stop gap player. I’ll predict the Cardinals.
Now Hudson, he and his agent absolutely misread the market. A quality person and ballplayer who many evaluators see as a player whose starting to deteriorate with his physical skills. But a 1 year or 1 year with a team controlled option would be fine.
Both these players would make the twins a better team, but I’d be more excited about the energy Hudson would bring. A perfect fit in the 2-hole.
Lopez
Not “baseball smart”. He’ll make good plays but then he’ll do something little dumb.
like Alexi Casilla
just better…
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Lopez
I just see that .383 OBP in our lineup and go gaga. I think Terry Ryan and co scouted this guy a few years ago and never aquired him. He was in trade rumores with us when he was with Cincy.
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