Minnesota Twins Offensive Projections, 2010
by Jesse on Jan 27, 2010 10:26 AM EST
in By the Numbers
53 comments
I had these completed, but I've adjusted a number of players' projections based on yesterday's signing of Jim Thome. Naturally, if the Twins make any further moves, adjustments would need to be made.
I've enjoyed doing this the last few years, but I'm glad I waiting a couple of weeks longer to do it this time. So, how does our offense look this year? Make the jump to find out...
| Name | Games | At-Bats | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | SB |
| Joe Mauer | 141 | 529 | 174 | 34 | 2 | 23 | 79 | 65 | .329 | .416 | .531 | 3 |
| Jose Morales | 57 | 147 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 26 | .286 | .352 | .367 | 0 |
| Drew Butera | 11 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .211 | .286 | .263 | 0 |
| Wilson Ramos | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .200 | .429 | .200 | 0 |
After Mauer's power explosion last summer, I feel comfortable giving him a healthy home run total for the first time. As a whole I expect the catchers to be a strong group, with Morales continuing to show himself capable of being a strong backup. Third catcher options are a total shot in the dark, but certainly there will be a point this season in which Butera and/or Ramos will be called upon. The week or two in April, and of course September, will provide some of those opportunities.
| Name | Games | At-Bats | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | SB |
| Justin Morneau | 157 | 594 | 173 | 38 | 2 | 35 | 76 | 92 | .291 | .372 | .539 | 0 |
| J.J.Hardy | 139 | 542 | 139 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 46 | 98 | .256 | .315 | .430 | 2 |
| Nick Punto | 132 | 404 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 52 | 76 | .252 | .338 | .317 | 14 |
| Brendan Harris | 126 | 403 | 108 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 77 | .268 | .323 | .392 | 2 |
| Jim Thome | 94 | 282 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 79 | .245 | .370 | .475 | 0 |
| Alexi Casilla | 71 | 171 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 27 | .234 | .303 | .351 | 11 |
| Matt Tolbert | 38 | 87 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14 | .253 | .316 | .333 | 5 |
| Daniel Valencia | 14 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | .294 | .400 | .353 | 0 |
| Steven Tolleson | 9 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | .280 | .379 | .360 | 4 |
| Luke Hughes | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | .357 | .500 | .643 | 0 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 6 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | .200 | .294 | .200 | 0 |
| Justin Huber | 4 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | .250 | .400 | .500 | 0 |
This is a massive group of infielders, but unless the Twins bring in another third baseman I expect a lot of shuffling around to occur. Certainly some of these guys will only get a sniff in September. In all it's another strong season from Morneau, Hardy is slated for a bounceback, Thome will get more than 300 plate appearances and Punto will simply be Punto. Of course, someone like Tolleson might have his Minnesota future put in jeopardy since the Twins have yet to make room on the 40-man roster for Thome.
| Name | Games | At-Bats | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | SB |
| Denard Span | 152 | 582 | 175 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 79 | 93 | .301 | .384 | .418 | 26 |
| Jason Kubel | 150 | 525 | 150 | 30 | 1 | 31 | 55 | 102 | .286 | .353 | .524 | 1 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 148 | 562 | 156 | 32 | 3 | 24 | 55 | 118 | .278 | .342 | .473 | 4 |
| Delmon Young | 104 | 315 | 89 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 76 | .283 | .321 | .454 | 3 |
| Jason Pridie | 17 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | .216 | .293 | .351 | 4 |
| Dustin Martin | 8 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | .222 | .323 | .259 | 1 |
The outfield, as powerful as it's been in a long, long time. I had Delmon pegged for a bigger year, but the signing of big Thome is going to sink a bunch of his opportunities. Still, I have him performing better that he has in the past, even if that's in part-time duty. Span, Kubel and Cuddyer remain parts of what should be a pretty potent Twins offense.
As a whole this Twins team has the potential to be more powerful than last year's club, and a combined .447 slugging percentage in these projections represents that potential.
How do you expect the offense to perform this year?
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I would be absolutely ecstatic
If Valencia was able to show those numbers this year (I do realize the SLG isn’t anything special, but batting around .300 for a brief stint would make me pretty happy). Besides the optimism on Delmon, I think these numbers are all in th right ballpark.
Oh, and c’mon, Thome w/ 0 stolen bases? What kind of a projection is that??? hehe
I know we can't expect
Mauer to hit .365 every year, but I’m anxious to say you have his and Morneau’s averages figured fairly conservatively. I don’t think 200+ hits out of both of those guys is out of the question, and I definitely think Justin without a broken back will hit over .300.
My God, this could be one hell of a year – when does ST start up???
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Jan 27, 2010 10:57 AM EST reply actions
200 hits would certainly be in-play
if they’d both stop walking so darn much! Darn those walks, darn them! Shoot!
Sorry, watched The Hangover again last weekend.
Hangover
Tops on my DVD rental wish list.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That movie is amazing
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 27, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
HEY!
There’s Skittles in there!!!
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 27, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
For some reason, I picture montanatwinsfan to be a lot like Alan.
Can’t go within 200 feet of a school…or Chuck E Cheese. :)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
Can’t go within 200 feet of a school…or Chuck E Cheese sheep ranch…or petting zoo.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 27, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
alright that does it!
The gauntlets are off!
by montanatwinsfan on Jan 27, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Not another blood feud!
The last one didn’t happen until October, it’s not even Spring Training yet!
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 27, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
Good luck, less cowbell.
montana’s got a whole flock of sheep (in-laws, you know) that he can send after you.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
Winter in montana
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jan 28, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Out here in Montana
My sheep family ride war horses, and smoke marlboros.
Hide your women and children.
by montanatwinsfan on Jan 28, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I just laughed out loud.
At work.
Probably the funniest thing I’ve read on this site in a looong time.
The problem with these
is that you really don’t have anyone having a down year. That strikes me as unlikely.
Also, though it’s hard to say since you didn’t project PAs (just ABs), I think your a little short.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 27, 2010 11:22 AM EST reply actions
I was short by about 200 PA's
It happened when I changed a bunch of guys following the Thome signing yesterday. At most it’s a few PA’s here and there for different guys, but for this purpose I’m happy with it.
As far as having a bad year…I’m not sure which player you could single out to say “he’s likely to have a bad year”. I did use some regression to the mean for most of these guys, but that only made the awful guys not quite as bad and the great guys not quite at great.
I also didn’t predict injury.
That's the problem with projections, I guess
It’s hard to point at one player to have a down year, but if you don’t have anyone having a down year, you are overselling the offense as a whole.
That said, if I had to guess, my sense is you didn’t regress the good players enough; the Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer group will probably do worse than you have them estimated.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 27, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Young players
With the exception of Thome and maybe Cuddyer all of the Twins core is entering their “prime” production years. I’m guessing a couple of these players will not perform as highly as projected here but it will be because of injury, not because of regression of ability or performance. I also look for the Twins to have less feet, knee, and back issues now that they will be playing on natural grass.
Tom Tango addressed this in a post on fangraphs a little while ago
Jesse’s predictions might represent the MEDIAN production, or the most likely scenario for each player. But since he isn’t taking into account season ending injury, etc., they don’t represent the MEAN production. Because of this, adding them all up will not be a good prediction of team production.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-it-bad-to-have-an-optimistic-forecast/
by Steven Ellingson on Jan 27, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
World Series
Where we’re going, players don’t have “down years.”
by PortlandTwins7 on Jan 27, 2010 11:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
ugh
if you’re right, that’s 2 .300 hitters and 1 20SB guy… not looking forward to that, as much as I love all the power. We’re looking more and more like the White Sox every day and I don’t like it… even though I like the Thome signing, we need more Carlos Gomez players
Steals
don’t equal wins. The Twins didn’t steal any bases the last couple of years, especially last year (maybe not so coincidentally) when they won the division. The at-bats that Thome will get instead of Gomez will equal a MUCH higher OBP, due to an astronomically higher amount of walks and sadly, even batting avg. If Punto is considered a “Carlos Gomez player”, then we have enough. If Tolbert makes the team, then there’s two. The best teams have a couple “speed/avg” guys, such as Span and potentially Hudson/Lopez. The problem with Gomez was getting on base…and that’s a pretty big problem to have.
Not to mention the White Sox of the ’00s never had Mauer and Morneau.
Who cares about batting average
when we have a team full of players who can get on base? You also need to re-check who the White Sox have on their roster, because their offense is looking pretty bleak. Some power potential, but they’ll struggle to get men on base.
Batting average does not equal good offense. More speed would be nice, but stolen bases aren’t as important as knowing when to take the extra base.
Thank you!
“Batting average does not equal good offense. More speed would be nice, but stolen bases aren’t as important as knowing when to take the extra base.”
Exactly my point, only much more concise.
agree and disagree
speed is just not that important of a commodity in baseball as there are far fewer head to head situations than there are in any other sport. In football, basketball, and especially in hockey, speed is a tangible commodity. On the offensive side of baseball at least, it is a secondary concern.
And there is no doubt that OBP and OPS are more important tham AVG. But to interpret Uofmike’s comments in the most favorable way he does have a point when he adds the two things together. Lack of basehitting skills COMBINED with a lack of speed equals a drop in ‘the little things’ that Adam Peterson tracks for us.
A walk might be as useful as a base hit when the bases are empty, or when you are trying to tire out the other team’s ace pitcher by driving up the pitch count. But a base hit is often more useful when there is someone on first who can use SPEED to turn that base hit into advancement to third base.
Its the rare night when our team can walk in a run. It is not so rare to move someone from 1st to third on an outfield single and sac that guy in. Thome, Kubel, Young, Cuddyer, Crede, Hardy and even Morneau and Mauer just aren’t nearly as likely to get to third in those situations.
by montanatwinsfan on Jan 27, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Besides
I’d rather have 2 or 3 .300 hitters and 4 or 5 .260-.290 hitters that get walks and hit dingers than have a bunch of speedy little banjo-hitters (Gomez, Punto, Tolbert, etc.).
Hey!
That’s speedy little Pirahnas to you mister! :)
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 27, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I would rather
have the Sharks than the Pirahnas!!! Sharks take big huge bites out of you, killing you instantly, while Pirahnas eat you slowly….
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 27, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ozzie is calling us "Sardines" now
From ESPN. Apparently, we won’t be able to take the cold and rain here in MN.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 27, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
I understand this has nothing to do with this post but
I was thinking about this for the new Twinke Town picture
Just a though
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 27, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions
*Just a thought
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 27, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Nice pic
I like the other view, from the first base line, better. That one features Target Center and the downtown skyline. This one features the garbage burner, unless that’s what you’re going for.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This one features the garbage burner, unless that's what you
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 27, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
damn!
This one features the garbage burner, unless that’s what you’re going for.
Classic cmath! haha…he could be going for that knowing the number of Yankee fans who visited here in the last playoff with their foul mouths….we need to burn some of those bloggers.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 27, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Whats a garbage burner? lol haha
Ace Deuce- Tell me that is not the coolest nickname ever....... Okayyy maybe "Purple Moses" beats it. :)
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Jan 28, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Nice
But it should have the Mpls skyline in the background.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 27, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think a would rather see ...
An angle that featured from home plate looking out with the Minneapoli skyline, plus the Twins logo over the outfield.
Just to put a tiny tiny dent in your prediction
Justin Huber was signed by a Japanese team a while back.
Looking good!
First post—glad to be here!
things are sure looking pretty good. love the additions of Thome and Hardy. great breakdown of the offense and agree it is one of the most powerful lineups we’ve had in awhile. this will be an exciting baseball team to watch. now all we ned to do is sign Joe!
gm
Is anyone an MLB Insider?
This article looked interesting…
Raw PECOTA projections now out from BP
1. They pick the Twins to win the central…with an 82-80 record. They project lots of runs scored but a lot given up as well.
2. Don’t want to give up the farm, but a couple of notes: PECOTA likes Hardy for a decent bounceback year of around 800 OPS. Makes an assumption that Punto and Casilla will essentially split 2B, neither hitting well but Casilla being better. They give Valencia 40% of the 3B playing time, with Tolbert and Harris splitting the rest.
As a little bonus nugget, PECOTA seems to think that Revere could hold his own in the majors right now; predicting a .304/.359/.404 line in the majors.
3. On the pitching side, I’ll just say that I’m disappointed that PECOTA isn’t calling for a bigger bounceback for Liriano, though it doesn’t hate him. It predicts total disaster for Pavano.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 28, 2010 9:51 PM EST reply actions
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