FanPost

Preliminary PECOTA projections out from BP


I posted much of this as a comment in Jesse's offensive projections post, but then I thought I might as well put it in a new fanpost in case people want to discuss.  Much of this is behind a pay wall, so I won't get too specific, but some tidbits after the jump.

1. They pick the Twins to win the central…with an 82-80 record. They project lots of runs scored but a lot given up as well.

2. Don’t want to give up the farm, but a couple of notes: PECOTA likes Hardy for a decent bounceback year of around 800 OPS. Makes an assumption that Punto and Casilla will essentially split 2B, neither hitting well but Casilla being better. They give Valencia 40% of the 3B playing time, with Tolbert and Harris splitting the rest.

As a little bonus nugget, PECOTA seems to think that Revere could hold his own in the majors right now; predicting a .304/.359/.404 line in the majors.  Also seems to like Parmelee; Valencia, not so much.

3. On the pitching side, I’ll just say that I’m disappointed that PECOTA isn’t calling for a bigger bounceback for Liriano, though it doesn’t hate him. It predicts total disaster for Pavano.

PECOTA likes this offense--doesn't think Jesse was over-optimistic in most cases, and in fact likes some of the secondary guys better than Jesse did (Hardy, Harris, Casilla).  Really only comes in significantly lower on Mauer (slugging) and Thome.  It does not like the run prevention.  At all.

 

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