Francisco Liriano Dominates the DWL
Over at Rotoworld, Aaron Gleeman discusses Cisco's successes in the Dominican Winter League (including the league's final World Series game on ESPN). Having watched him throw, Gleeman is impressed with Liriano's velocity as well as the sharp-breaking slider. Follow the link fore more details.
Anyone else feeling a little tingly at the thought of having even just a part of the old Liriano back?
over 2 years ago
Jesse
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I’m going to mention this in my bit today: I strongly believe that a full season of 2006 Liriano is the difference between making the playoffs and advancing in the playoffs this year.
Interesting.
I hope you’re wrong…only because I’d like to think we could advace without a return to godlike Liriano form.
I hope I'm wrong, too.
I just like our odds a hell of a lot better with 2006 Liriano thrown into our control pitcher/pitch to contact mix.
by RandBall's Stu on Jan 29, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
2006 Liriano is never coming back
he’s just not that guy anymore. But the good news is he doesn’t have to be. 75-80% of him should suffice
Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
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I think he could...
but it would likely mean we would get the full 2006 version…dominant followed by blown out arm.
by guinness junky on Jan 29, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think you may be right
We’d need a bunch of other things to go well (Hardy bounce back, Slowey returns to form, Neshek back to form, Delmon “gets it”, etc) to advance with a 2009 Liriano. If we got a 2006 performance (outside of the elbow injury of course), this team suddenly jumps to the top tier.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 29, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
contact rate
Liriano was nasty last year too. His contact rate was 3rd best in MLB at 74%. His problem was fastball control. Fastball control is usually the last thing to come back after TJ surgery. If he can be even average with his fastball he still has 2 plus pitches in his slider/changeup. I have high hopes that he’ll be a #1starter this year.
He is also apparently throwing it a bit harder
I’m so excited to see how he does this year. I think he’ll pitch better than he ever has since ’06.
Of course if contact rate is really all it's cracked up to be
Blackburn will be the worst pitcher in MLB history.
top 10 contact rate
Vazquez, Sanchez, Liriano, De La Rosa, Lincecum, Dempster, Hamels, Lester, Billingsley, Gallardo. That’s a list I’d be happy to have my pitchers on.
I agree that contact rate isn’t the only important thing for pitchers. You can also succeed by throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground, ie Blackburn. My point is that Liriano still has excellent “stuff” and if he can control his fastball better he could have a big year.
by Jon Kammerer on Jan 29, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
I guess we all know he has that something extra that can make him elite, it’s just a matter of getting it all together again.
Contact rate always tweaks me a little bit though because it’s always pulled out in the offseason to knock Twins pitchers, when the Twins have had a lot of success with high-contact-rate pitchers. (some of this is philosophy—throw strikes—not just skill)
Command
will be the key for Liriano. He was all over the place last year, but his contact rate gives us hope for this year.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 29, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
They're not gonna make contact
if he throws a ton of balls out of the strike zone
by Span's the Man!!! on Jan 29, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think we can get Franchise 2009 back. Not Franchise 2006
Even so, Franchise 2008 would be the third starter on this team.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
I think 2008 Liriano is more likely, but even 2008 Liriano would be a huge asset.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 29, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
I am hoping we can get something in between 2006 and 2008 Franchise.
That would make our rotation much more potent. Slowey, Baker, 2006/2008 Liriano, Blackburn Pavano?
Would be nice to maybe have another lefty, but I would feel good about our chances with any of those guys on the mound.
A solid Liriano
Makes our staff great.
Now if Neshek can come in and strike people out agian, our Bullpen becomes that much better….
Are the peices in place?
by clutterheart on Jan 29, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I see a second baseman or third baseman as the final piece of the puzzle. If we can bring in a guy like O-Hud or F-Lop to play decent defense and fill that 2-hole in the batting order. Wow. We have a scary team.
Vs. Righties
1. Span (CF)
2. Hudson (2B)(my preferred pick)
3. Mauer ©
4. Morneau (1B)
5. Cuddyer (RF)
6. Thome (DH)
7. Kubel (LF)
8. Hardy (SS)
9. Punto/Harris (3B)
with Young on the bench for a potential pinch hit.
Vs. Lefties
1. Span (CF)
2. Hudson (2B)(my preferred pick)
3. Mauer ©
4. Morneau (1B)
5. Cuddyer (RF)
6. Kubel (DH)
7. Young (LF)
8. Hardy (SS)
9. Punto/Harris (3B)
with Thome on the bench for a potential pinch hit.
Wow. Hard not to be excited about the possibilities this year.
Felipe
Shortening Felipe Lopez’s name to Flop is a bit ominous!
by TheBlackFreighter on Jan 29, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Kubel
That lineup against righties is sick. I can’t imagine Kubel hitting all the way down at 7!?!
by TheBlackFreighter on Jan 29, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Coming from Gleeman this is interesting
Gleeman is probably the most realist/pessimist Twins blogger around. The fact that he’s showing optimism is a good sign, let’s hope we see a return to form.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
0.82 and 54-7 are ridiculously good numbers
and the DWL is decent competition. It’s hard not to be enthused.
Realist/pessimist
Are those two things the same?
I would call him generally skeptical. – Which is ofteh the right way to be.
by clutterheart on Jan 29, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
skeptic is probably a better description
I didn’t want to call him a straight up pessimist but often his opinions border between the two IMO.
He generally is not optimistic though so that would make him more in the realm or realism or pessimism.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
He was much less optimistic last week
His argument was:
- Liriano has dominated
- Ron Gardenhire hyped his dominance
- Gardy is not trustworthy with player hype
- I don’t believe Liriano has really dominated
I chided him on this in his blog. My argument is, it the numbers support 1., you should believe it whether or not Gardy hypes it. In other words, just because someone believes it or disbelieves it doesn’t make skepticism any more or less reasonable. The numbers speak for themselves.
He seems to have softened that position, though he still leads with it. The softening only came after he saw Liriano on ESPN. Who knows if he would trust the numbers over his own eyeballs otherwise. That seems very un-Gleeamnlike.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Sample size
Perhaps sample size was also factoring in for Gleeman? Anybody can have a hot 20 inning stretch, but when it reaches 40… that’s dominance. I think it also helps to see, with your own eyes, that his velocity is up and he’s spotting that fastball. If he can get his fastball back, watch out.
by TheBlackFreighter on Jan 29, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I don't trust Gardy inspired hype either
He so often is wrong/misinformed.
And with the small sample size, skepticism was the correct move.
In fact, we should still be skeptical until Liriano builds on this with a good spring. Its likely the Twins also hold this view otherwise they would not have courted Washburn.
by clutterheart on Jan 29, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
I don't have a problem with skepticism
Just his reasons for it. If it’s small sample size, that’s a good reason to be skeptical. If it’s the DWL, that’s a good reason to be skeptical. If Liriano had dominated the DWL before 2009 and sucked in MLB 2009, that’s a good reason to be skeptical. Don’t be skeptical just because Gardy is excited. Gardy has a 50/50 chance to be right.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Gleeman
just used the first post as a way to take pot-shots at Gardenhire….nothing more.
by guinness junky on Jan 29, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
This just made my day
I usually consider myself a realist (or a realist/pessimist as it were :), but i am completely willing to believe that Liriano will have a bounce-back year this year. The timing after TJ is right, the evidence is out there, both anecdotally and factually, and, gosh darn it, i feel it in my gut! The nice thing about this, is we don’t NEED him to be 2006 (or even 2009) Liriano. We have a lot of options for our fifth spot, but seeing Liriano get his swagger back on the mound would be a fantastic treat and, if we make the postseason, a 2006 Liriano really could be a difference maker.
How tough is the DWL?
Serious question here – I don’t know what caliber of players play there. Are the stats available anywhere, to see what other MLB players are doing in that environment?
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
In the playoffs, it's pretty close to major league talent
The playoff teams can draft from the whole league. Playoff teams are like country all-star teams.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Im pretty sure
the team he faced last night had one major leaguer.
Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey
Alexi Casilla led off
Wilson Betemit played, so did Nelson Cruz of Texas and Ramon Santiago of Detroit. No stars but those are MLB players. Most of the rest are AAA guys.
Casilla in DWL
.219/.288/.288 – ugh
Liriano 1.54ERA, 11.2 IP, 17K, 2BB
Casilla...ouch.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
They don’t give ALL the stats though. It only shows Liriano having 11.2 innings, and we know he has done much much more.
that is because
it is playoff time. Liriano has thrown 11.2 innings in the playoffs.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
not true
It’s been at 11.2 for quite some time.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 30, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Talent is very good
a bunch of major leaguers and high minor league guys once the Caribbean World Series comes around.
My biggest question is how the overall walk rate for the league compares to MLB. Are the strike zones bigger, and do the hitters go up there hacking more than in the majors?
by Adam Peterson on Jan 29, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
It's the perfect time for a comeback...
…because it’s such a mixed blessing. Watch Liriano go off for an ace season, get $10m+ in arbitration, and completely hose the 2011 payroll.
Even if he pitched exactly like 06 except 200 innings
he’d be hard pressed to get that much. He is still a big injury risk.
I'm perfectly willing to have Liriano get a large contract in arb next year
if it means he dominates this year.
by Adam Peterson on Jan 29, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
yeah,
if he were to have a true ‘ace’ season and be as dominant as he was in 2006, he alone will be a big attendance draw and likely generate 2011 ticket sales on his own, so his impact on the 2011 payroll would likely be mitigated a little.
no reason to worry though, Liriano is never going to be 2006 Liriano again.
by montanatwinsfan on Jan 29, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe not
Liriano is never going to be 2006 Liriano again.
But from the video I saw on the news last, “The Franchise” looked awesome!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"All morons hate it when you call them a moron." -Holden Caufield
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 30, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah he did
I don’t want 2006 Liriano back though, I’d like for him to keep his left arm
Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey
we're going to get 2010 Liriano
and it’ll be awesome
I think you're right
but I am trying to temper my expectations a bit
Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog
You know you like college hockey
we dont want
the 2006 Liriano…we want 08 Liriano.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Between 08 and 06
That would be a huge upgrade. I’d be thrilled with 08 Liriano to be honest. He’s definitely looking better, as the numbers clearly speak for themselves. If the velocity reports are true, look out, but I tend to take those with a grain of salt. I’d be thrilled if his fastball picked up a couple more tickes (93ish, as I’m fairly certain he’d be a decent pitcher if it did).
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 30, 2010 1:24 PM EST reply actions
FB control is the key thing
I don’t know how many three-ball counts he ad in the DWL. But 7 walks in 50+ innings is very encouraging. He had the stuff to get guys out last year. He just didn’t have the control. Hopefully, he’s turned a corner with that. More velo on his FB and slider would be a plus. But they’d be wasted without better control.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
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