Bert Blyleven Belongs In the Hall of Fame
by Jesse on Jan 3, 2010 10:47 AM EST
in News
18 comments
I know it. You know it. He knows it. They should know it.
I did this a couple of years ago, but I thought it's a good time to revisit those things that make Bert one of the best pitcher's in the history of the game. How does he stack up in the all-time lists?
| Stat | Rank | Notes |
| Wins | 27th | 287. That's the magical number. We've heard for years that wins are over-rated as a stat for pitchers, but that 300-win barrier still matters when people cast their votes. Only two pitchers in front of him have more wins and are eligible for Hall membership (Tommy John, Bobby Mathews). Lesser win totals that belong to pitchers in the Hall: 268 (Jim Palmer), 251 (Bob Gibson), 239 (Mordecai Brown), 224 (Catfish Hunter) and many more. Yeah, I'm pretty sure 287 is enough. And don't give me any of that "he only had one 20-win season" nonsense. He won 287 games. |
| Innings | 14th | Surpassed by Greg Maddux in 2008, every single eligible pitcher in front of Blyleven is in the Hall. Three of the next four eligibles behind him are also enshrined. It's realistic to think that, in today's game, nobody will ever catch his 4970 innings again. Javier Vazquez would have to pitch 13 more seasons and average 200 innings per to catch him in his age-45 season. |
| Strikeouts | 5th | 3701 strikeouts. Of the top eligible seven strikeout pitchers in the history of the game, Blyleven is the only one not in the Hall. Both Randy Johnson (still active) and Roger Clemens (not yet eligible) are in front of him, but they're both sure shots. Nobody is going to match this total again anytime soon--again, Vazquez would have to average 150 strikeouts for the next ten years to pass Blyleven. Johan Santana has an outside shot if he can pitch into his 40's while staying a strikeout pitcher. C.C. Sabathia could catch him by the time he's 40 if he averages 200 strikeouts a season until then. |
| Starts | 11th | Seven of the eight eligible pitchers in front of him are enshrined. Tom Glavine is just three starts behind him, in 12th place, but all three guys from 13th - 15th place are also in the Hall of Fame. Bert started 685 games. If Mark Buehrle can start 33 games a season over the next 12 years he can catch him in his age-42 season. |
| Shutouts | 9th | Bert has 60 career shutouts. Every pitcher with 50 or more in his career (that's 20 guys) is in the Hall, except for Bert. |
| HR Allowed | 8th | If you can pitch long enough to allow 430 home runs, you were good. But in conjunction with the rest of his numbers, all it means is that he's great. And considering Bert pitched 22 seasons, that's less than 20 bombs a year. Besides, five of the six pitchers who are eligible in front of Bert are enshrined--and if they can be in after allowing that many homers, so can our favorite Dutchman. |
| Losses | 10th | Bert lost 250 times, and he deserved fewer than that. Still, of the nine men with more career losses than Blyleven, eight are in the Hall of Fame. |
| Batters Faced | 13th | All twelve of the pitchers in front of Blyleven are in the Hall. Four of the next five eligibles behind him are, too. Bert faced off against 20,491 batters, and barring perfect health and assuming most active pitchers won't pitch until they're older than 45, I don't think anyone's going to catch him. |
To me, the fact that a guy has to wait this long to get the membership he's earned is ridiculous. Either a guy belongs or he doesn't, and Bert does. His career speaks for itself, his numbers are worthy of induction.
Again, I would be remiss if I didn't point this out: according to baseballreference.com, Bert's top ten career comparibles are:
Don Sutton
Gaylord Perry
Fergie Jenkins
Tommy John
Robin Roberts
Tom Seaver
Jim Kaat
Early Wynn
Phil Niekro
Steve Carlton
- Tommy John and Jim Kaat, the only two on that list who are NOT members of the Hall of Fame, have impressive resumes and could easily have their own arguments for Hall membership.
- For the last fifteen years of Bert's career, the only two pitchers who appear on his "most similar by age" list are Don Drysdale and Don Sutton. Both are in the Hall of Fame.
If Bert doesn't make it, he'll have two more chances to make the Hall before his 15 years of eligibility expire. He will make it eventually, but it's just getting to the point where we all know he deserves it and we all know he's going to get in...so let's just get it over and done with. Give the man the recognition he deserves.
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Yes......
Everything is impressive. Some argue that his w/l ratio is too tight. Some say he never won the Cy Young, or wasn’t involved in any big playoff/post-season games (hogwash). He was in many big games. Lots of 1-0’s. His ERA is simply wodnerful, considering he lsot so many games. 530 decisions in 685 games. Wow!
Jim Kaat should be in, too. Maybe people laugh that he hung on too long as a reliever (he was a lefty…your arm is gold). Tommy John was the first to have that major surgery, skip a couple of seasons, and come back even stronger.
You look at Bert and you see consistency.
John and Kaat, too.
Jack Morris, even…and he was of the era of the five-man rotation at times.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Compare / contrast
IP ERA+ K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 K/BB WHIP W-L%
5386 111 9.5 4.7 6.6 0.5 2.8 1.25 .526
4970 118 4.7 2.0 8.4 1.2 2.0 1.20 .534
So our guy Bert has the better ERA+, K/BB, WHIP and winning percentage. The other guy is mistakenly thought of as one of the best 10 pitchers ever. Why do people like Nolan Ryan better? He threw 7 no-hitters and was better at the end of his career than at the beginning. Bert was fantastic out of the gate, having most of his best seasons before he turned 27 and got worse with age (like most players). Ryan was bad until he turned 25, walked too many batters (led the league 8 times) until he hit his mid-30s but lasted forever. Nolan Ryan is the strikeout king but it matters to his value that he’s also the all-time leader in walks and wild pitches. Bert was consistently better than Nolan Ryan.
Giving Bert his due:
Just a couple of corrections on his line. His K/9 is actually 6.7, and I think you flipped his K/BB rate with Ryan’s.
I want him in for 2 reasons:
1) He derserves it
2) Anybody who knows what a WHIP is has to lament on how dumb sports writers are every damn winter and will not give it a rest.
For the record, Im a stat-guy, but this is beating a dead horse IMO
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
WHIP is a great stat for predicting future performance,
but in a situation like Bert where he’s done playing, it doesn’t really matter because all of the results are in. Bert was a great pitcher, in spite of the losses, in spite of the homers and in spite of “only” having 287 wins. It’s a joke that he’s not in yet, considering everyone knows he will be before he’s off the ballot. What has everyone been waiting for?
I would be surprised if he doesn’t get in this year.
I was just using WHIP as an example
to represent the stat heads, in general.
I totally agree though, it is a shame that he isn’t in yet
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
WHIP is a pretty bad stat for predicting future peformance
because of the H.
by DK on Jan 4, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
If I find out who the 3 guys were that voted no i'm gonna kick their ass.
Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.
I bet one was the same guy who voted Miguel Cabrera for MVP
"So [Kouzmanoff]’s going to make decent monkey, but he’d be affordable." - Jesse
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 4, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
Jon Heyman has the opposition position up
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/01/04/heyman.hall/index.html
I think he’s wrong, but not crazy. I saw enough of Bert’s career to know that he’s right that no one thought, while watching Bert play: “There’s a hall of famer.” Actually, I think Bert himself said that, after he retired, he had to be convinced by the stat-heads that he was worthy.
He’s also right that Bert was more of a compiler than a dominator. I personally think that compiling is underrated—taking your body through 2 decades of a pro sport at a consistently very good level is really, really amazing, and I think more amazing than dominating for a few years—but if you’re down on compilers, I think it’s ok to get down on Bert.
But in the end, I think Heyman’s and others in the anti-Bert crowd’s main failing is not appreciating how terribly unreliable 1st-person exposure is when coming to this sort of decision. In baseball and so much else, you’re better off setting your personal experience aside and using objective criteria.
+1
I agree with you. Heyman makes legitimate arguments, namely that Bert was not dominant, but had a long, solid career. If that’s his reason not to vote a guy into the Hall, that’s fine. We don’t all have to agree with him but it’s understandable.
However, Heyman also uses wins as support for not voting for Bert, and he notes that Bert didn’t receive many Cy Young votes. And he downgrades strikeouts, WHIP, and the fact that Bert played on a number of bad teams. To me, his overreliance on subjective arguments undercuts the rest of his analysis. Even if Heyman came to a reasonable rationale to reject Bert (Bert was a compiler, not a dominator), he got there through faulty analysis.
He also gave his vote to Jack Morris, because of Game 7, because of Cy Young votes, because of his wins, and because Morris has a reputation as a bulldog…
"So [Kouzmanoff]’s going to make decent monkey, but he’d be affordable." - Jesse
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 4, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
He voted Alomar, Larkin, Dawson, Morris, Parker, Mattingly
"So [Kouzmanoff]’s going to make decent monkey, but he’d be affordable." - Jesse
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 4, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Mattingly,
RBIs, W/L, etc. There’s a lot not to like there.
I just would defend him a little bit because before too long, we’re going to be sitting around saying something like, “Mark Beuhrle, seriously?!? I don’t care what the stats say, I saw that guy play and he was not a hall of famer.” (or Javier Vazquez, Mike Mussina, etc.)
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