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Twins "In the Mix" for Orlando Hudson

This according to the Free Press.

Primarily the short article discusses Detroit's interest in the free agent second baseman, but indeed, are the Twins "in the mix"?  They've been tied to Hudson once that I can remember this off-season, although there's been nothing concrete from any source.

Just having turned 32 in the middle of December, Orlando Hudson is one of the biggest commodities left on the market.  He chilled at the end of the Dodgers' '09 campaign, eventually losing starts to Ronnie Belliard, but he still managed a respectable .283/.357/.417 line in 149 games and 631 plate appearances.

At this stage of his career it's most likely his best days are behind him, but looking to next season, what could Hudson bring to the table?

Star-divide

Over the course of his career Hudson has generally been healthy.  From time to time his hamstring has given him trouble but, with the exception of a wrist injury in August '08 that kept him out the rest of the season, he's been a full-time contributor since 2003.

There's little doubt that, barring his first major injury or a sudden loss of skill, Hudson would be a big upgrade over anyone the Twins could run out at second base.  He's patient and has a good eye for the strike zone, with a career walk rate of 9% (higher since moving to the National League in 2006) and a career 17.7 O-Zone swing percentage.  He doesn't pop up much (fewer easy outs), and he has a track record of being a decent contact hitter.  In fact, as a general rule, Hudson is simply a good offensive second baseman.  Not great, but he's a good, solid #2 hitter.

He's also a switch-hitter, which would help break up all of the left-handers at the top of the batting order.  Historically he's much better facing right-handed pitching as a lefty (.289/.356/.440) than the other way around (.262/.322/.403), but strategically it might work to break things up late in a game.

By reputation he's a good but streaky fielder, in possession of four Gold Gloves but also known to make easy plays look hard.  His UZR/150 numbers aren't glowing over the last four seasons (-3.7, -7.6, 0.5, -0.7 from '09 back to '06), so it's hard to say without seeing him exactly how good (or not) his defense is at this point in his career.

One interesting point that needs to be made is how much better of a hitter he's been since moving to the National League.  In Toronto from 2002 - 2005, Hudson was just a .270/.328/.418 hitter over 1780 plate appearances.  But after turning 28 and changing leagues, over his last four years he's been a .293/.363/.440 hitter in 2337 plate appearances.  Toronto was a hitter's park; Arizona even moreso.  Under most circumstances I think AL-NL changes make more of a difference to pitchers than to hitters, but this is still curious.

In 2010 Hudson should be a 2-to-3-win player.  As a popular target he's going to probably receive multiple offers.  Can the Twins be competetive without overpaying?  Like Orlando Cabrera, Hudson is a vocal guy--one of those players who you can count on to always be there behind the scenes.  That has to be worth something on a squad which lacks that one outspoken character; although to be fair it's hard to say what goes on behind closed locker room doors.  Besides, Minnesotans aren't always the most forgiving of outspoken characters.

Adding Hudson would give the Twins just one more bat, and a Span-Hudson-Mauer-Morneau-Kubel-Cuddyer-Hardy front seven is nothing to sneeze at.  As Bill Smith, what realistic offer would you make to bring him on board?  Or would you not tender him a contract at all?

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Interesting career arch

Seems to be peaking in his low 30’s (.281 EqA, highest of his career)…

Is consistent
2007 .283 EqA
2008 .280 EqA
2009 .286 EqA

Defensively, his numbers, according to Baseball Prospectus, are slightly above average

As far as a conference, I would offer him a Scutaro like contract. Maybe a million less or so

I like it, If he can stay healthy, he could hold down the 2B well for a few years,

The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski

by DaTwins on Jan 3, 2010 7:11 PM EST reply actions  

2 year deal

For him and for Beltre.

by DJL44 on Jan 3, 2010 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Hudson – 2 Years, $7 Million base with incentives worth up to $14 Million in 2 years

Beltre – 2 Years, $15 Million base with incentives worth up to $21 Million in 2 years.

Is that what you would pay for those players?

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 3, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know

I don’t know if we actually HAVE any of this money. We might not have more than a couple million left to spend, ie, not enough for a major acquisition.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 3, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B

than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Could care less about Hudson

because it’s become clear that the Twins are dragging their feet in regards to signing Mauer. If they let it drag out until spring training this team will unravel, plain and simple. It’s not like they have ANYONE signed long term, the Twins management in 2 years will have a new ballpark with nobody to put in it.

by Sixmark on Jan 3, 2010 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

you sir

are the definition of stupid.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 3, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

you sir

know nothing about me, you claim I am stupid for stating that the Twins don’t have anyone signed long term, they don’t, 2 years is nothing on a contract these days. It’s always easier to run your mouth to someone behind the safety of a keyboard isn’t it?

by Sixmark on Jan 4, 2010 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

ahem

Morneau signed through 2014,

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 4, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

that said

I apologize for what I said earlier. You just did not put much effort into the “Its not like they have ANYONE signed long term…” Morneau is signed through 2014 and all of the Twins prospects would be under team control for many years. So realistically, in two years, the Twins could have Ramos, Revere, Gibson, Morneau, Hardy, Hicks, Morales. That is hardly having nobody for the new ballpark. I agree, the Twins top priority should be to sign Mauer, but your statement that the Twins don’t have anyone (anyone meaning anyone good) to play in the new ballpark was erroneous.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 4, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you could also have made a good counter argument,

that given the Twins’ current payroll limits and personnel, the front office is wise to not have any long term contracts other than Morneau and hopefully Mauer soon. Certainly an argument could be made for baker and Kubel, for sure, but pitchers are high risk and isn’t Baker locked up now through 2012? Ok and Span.

I can’t think of anyone else who even deserves a mention at this point for a long term contract. Long term contracts are great when they work out. Very painful for a conservative team like the Twins when they don’t.

by montanatwinsfan on Jan 4, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

good point

I believe that Baker is actually locked up through 2013 (4 year contract signed in 09). Certainly the franchise players are the ones who should be locked up long term, i.e. Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Span, Baker, Slowey.

The Twins are very cautious about offering long term contracts, I agree 100%. If they do not work out, it has just inhibited a mildly small market team from making the necessary improvements in the offseason. This is why I would have like to have the Twins sign Beltre at the contract he received from Boston. Not much money tied up in it over about 2 years.

Now, the Twins must make a similar contract with O-Dawg and deal with Punto/Harris/Tolbert at 3B. Maybe even re-sign Crede for a 2 day spot starter/occasional DH option. Or else we deal Perkins + A prospect for Kouzmanoff.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 5, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

That's how I see it

After this year, I could see Slowey and Hardy, if they get back to their 2008 levels.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Yup,

can’t say that, bud. We’ve talked about it before. I agree the statement was 100% crap, but destroy it categorically, don’t insult. Thanks.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude ...

You really need to read Shapiro’s book, “The Power of Nice.” I think the Strib mentioned it a few weeks ago too. If you’re worried about Mauer’s contract, it could do wonders to help ease your mind.

No, really. Go to the library, check it out and read it.

Shapiro is Mauer’s agent and he was also Puckett and Ripken’s agent. Both of Puckett’s deals took forever. Ripken’s took almost a year. And the whole time they were negotiating, virtually nothing was leaked to the press. The book goes into detail about how those deals evolved.

Using those deals as a yardstick, Smith and Shapiro have probably been negotiating for quite a while now. They’ll also probably be negotiating for quite a while longer. Just because nobody is saying anything, doesn’t mean progress isn’t being made.

In fact, I would go as far as to say that until it’s anounced that the deal is off, you should assume that both sides are still talking and probably making progress.

by sploorp on Jan 4, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh believe me

I know how Shapiro handles his clients, the concern I have is that this isn’t the same Twins management that it was before, I don’t have a lot of faith in them, I truly respect Mauer and Shapiro as they look at reality instead of how to become the next Yankee. I like what Smith has done with dealing Gomez, but I just haven’t seen a consistent string of decisions from him yet to the put where I trust the guy, get what I’m saying?

by Sixmark on Jan 4, 2010 12:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Damn typo

it should read “to the point where I trust the guy” damn I hate painkillers

by Sixmark on Jan 4, 2010 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Twinsfest

The Twins typically like to announce a signing/extension in time for Twinsfest. Look for something to happen by the end of the month.

I think they have the money for either 3B or 2B budgeted, the 2nd signing will have to be cheap. I could see Beltre and Lopez or Hudson and Kouzmanoff but Beltre and Hudson seems unlikely. Still, both guys are unsigned and don’t have a lot of suitors.

by DJL44 on Jan 4, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Indeed.

Given the characters we’re dealing with here, I think we can safely say that no news is good news. (Mind you, I’m getting jittery anyway. But I’m pretty sure those jitters aren’t based on reality.)

http://www.realityfish.com

by Robin G on Jan 4, 2010 8:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Hudson was benched for Belliard!!!

Late in the season. That’s not a good sign. Hardy was sent to AAA last year. Does’t sound like upgrades to me. I hope the grass IS greener on the other side. Punto is starting to look good.

by b1 on Jan 4, 2010 7:28 AM EST reply actions  

b1

we have told you this so many times. Hardy was sent to AAA to keep him under team control. Sure, he had some problems but it was not because of them that he was sent down. The Brewers wanted to give their shortstop of the future a look while keeping Hardy under team control. Hardy is the best shortstop the Twins have had since Cristian Guzman. It sure is easy for fans to pretend knowing more about players than the management.

Hudson wore out at the end of the season. He had played pretty much every game prior to his “demotion” to the bench. Hell, the Twins have had to “bench” Morneau for that same reason. The trouble is that fans automatically jump to conclusions like “oh, he must really suck if Belliard had to take over” instead of looking at their career stats.

For future reference, do not look at the moves made by the team (Hardy to AAA, Hudson to the bench) but rather look at their stat lines and determine from there if they would be an improvement over Punto, Tolbert, Casilla, Harris, etc…

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 4, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Since Cristian Guzman?

That’s not saying much. Try since Jason Bartlett, or since Greg Gagne.

by DK on Jan 4, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Jason Bartlett

was not nearly the star he was when he moved to Tampa Bay. Guzman was a great SS for a while for the Twins prior to injury and attitude.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 4, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I would argue that Bartlett was better than Guzman

His numbers were better, anyway.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Bartlett - hardly a star in TB until 2009

Bartlett’s first season in TB was pretty mediocre… 1.8 WAR, lower than the 3.0 and 2.8 he put up in his last two seasons with the Twins. He certainly turned into a star last year, 4.8 WAR fueled by a .389 wOBA.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 5, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

Bartlett was a 7.7 WAR player in parts of four seasons with the Twins.

Guzman was a 2.4 WAR player in his four seasons with the Twins.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

To be fair to Guzman

his two best offensive years with the Twins, 2000 and 2001, we don’t have UZR or WAR data…

by Adam Peterson on Jan 6, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 6, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

By Torre

So I don’t put mush stock in that. Torre used Damon in center and Matsui in left most of a whole season and wondered why his pitchers underperformed. He’s also the guy who made Rodriguez shift to third and kept Jeter at short.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 4, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

I'll buy all that.

Just pointing out that these guys have their dents and dings. How many guys have come to the Twins and have Sucked. The last one being Gomes over Span. Fastest guy in the league blah,blah,blah. I like the Player we have. I hope Hardy has a allstar year. I don’t like Beltre, I do think we’ll end up with Creede (Kous would work). I also think Valencia is ready and may be as good as any of these guy’s in a year or two.

by b1 on Jan 4, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Glad they're at least looking

I don’t think the Twins will actually pony up the money to sign Hudson, but I think it’s a good sign that they are looking at both second basemen and third basemen. It’s obvious that they intend to play Punto somewhere, and won’t hire more than one additional infielder, at most. They’ve only talked publicly about wanting to upgrade at third. But if they can get more bang for their buck upgrading at second, they should do it, and move Punto to third. If Valencia pans out, Punto could go back to being a super sub.

The third base options left right now are pretty meager. I have nothing against signing Crede again, except there’s then a high probability they’d end up being crappy at two infield positions again, and that’s assuming Hardy bounces back. I’d rather see Hudson out there every day than Crede for who knows how many days. I wish they would spend some of that stadium money on Hudson, as long as he’s not too expensive.

by by jiminy on Jan 4, 2010 7:34 PM EST reply actions  

Ken Rosenthal or Tim Deirkes or somebody,,,,

Just Predicted us to sign Miguel Tejada for (3B)

and 1 of Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn for or (4th or 5th) starting pitching slot

thats 2 of the top 40 re-maining FA’s left!

I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B

than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2010 7:58 PM EST reply actions  

personally I thnk we wouldn't have the $

to get any more that 1 FA, regardless of who they are…

maaaybe Hudson, Tejada, a pitcher (sheets – ha) or someone like Mora, Crede ?

I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B

than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I've got to believe they are holding

to what we’ve got. The Kouz trade is there for S.D. to take, if not we sign Crede. They are paying Punto to much not to start. They will not face that bad deal with signing someone to start over him (4mill to sit the bench) no way!

by b1 on Jan 4, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

punto

I knew that contract would come back to bite us…UGH!

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Tejada, perhaps

but I don’t see any way that we sign a FA pitcher. Rotation spots 1-4 are set with Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and Pavano. That means a healthy competition between Liriano, Duensing, Swarzak and Perkins (if we don’t move him) for the #5 spot. No way we sign Davis or Washburn, IMO.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 5, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be one scary lineup. Someone as talented as Hardy sitting in the 7 spot?!?! Wow. Its just nice to see the Twins trying to improve the roster, they clearly have something to build on and now a better revenue stream. Hopefully they’ll stop acting like a small market team now!!

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2010 10:12 AM EST reply actions  

Lineup:

Sign O-Dawg
Trade Perkins for Kouzmanoff

1. Span, CF
2. O-Hud, 2B
3. Mauer, C
4. Morneau, 1B
5. Cuddyer, RF
6. Kubel, DH
7. Kouzmanoff, 3B
8. Hardy, SS
9. Young, LF

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by BCTwins on Jan 5, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

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