Minor League Report...January 30, 2010
by roger13 on Jan 30, 2010 10:35 AM EST
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PrintAs January slips away we can all rejoice in knowing that pitchers and catchers will be reporting in a few weeks. With Twins Fest this weekend, there hasn't been a lot of news, but the news we had was "Big News" as the Twins signed aging slugger...Jim Thome! The Twins will not need to add Thome to their 40-man roster until he passes his physical which he is taking this weekend. Thus, we won't know for a few more days who the Twins removed from their roster or if they created a spot by completing a trade.
Meanwhile, the baseball season is coming to an end down in the Caribbean. All the league championship series are complete with play now turning to the Caribbean Championship Series between the four league champions.
It had been reported by several sources that Francisco Liriano was done following his start about two weeks ago. Well, that wasn't the case. With Liriano's Escogido team facing Alexi Casilla's Gigante for the Dominican Championship, Liriano continued to pitch. He was the starter in a game Escogido lost last Saturday, 3-2. Liriano pitched 5.0 innings with 7 hits, 3 runs (2 earned) and 7K/0BB. Liriano returned to get the start in Thursday's critical game nine of the nine game series. Following his first ordinary outing of the winter, Liriano took the ball and pitched like the Ace he has been this winter.....pitching 5.0 shutout innings with 1 hit and 10K/1BB in a game Escogido would win 5-2 to clinch the Dominican championship. With spring training three weeks away, will Liriano continue to pitch in the Caribbean Series and report to spring training with NO rest?
Alexi Casilla had a great week for Gigante at 6-16 with a run scored, triple and 4 RBI as he finished the Dominican playoffs hitting .344 Average.
After finishing in fourth place 8.5 games out, Danny Valencia's Mayaguez squad won the Puerto Rico championship in five games. Valencia had a tough week as he went hitless in the first five games before a 2-5 night with a run scored and RBI in game five. For the week, Valencia was 2-26. Mike Maroth was the starter on Monday, pitching 4.1 innings with 7 hits, 3 runs and 3K/4BB in a game Mayaguez would lose, 7-6. Mayaguez won their semi-final series against Arecibo on Sunday in a game that Drew Butera was 1-3 with a run scored for the losers.
Wilson Ramos is playing for Caracus following another wonderful winter season for the Aragua Tigres. Caracus won the Venezuela playoffs last night, however, Ramos didn't appear in the critical game seven. For the week, Ramos was 2-6 as he saw playing time in three of the five games Caracus played.
The Twins will be represented on three of the four teams participating in the Caribbean championship, Caracus/Venezuela (Wilson Ramos), Mayaguez/Puerto Rico (Danny Valencia, Mike Maroth and Nelvin Fuentes), and Escogido/Dominican Republic (Francisco Liriano).
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I am bummed to hear
that Valencia struggled. I am also concerened about Lireano come August or September. I can hear the excuses already, if he struggles with the big club again.
I always loved that one.
Valencia's problems
Mean the twins might have to forget about 2B and go after Crede
by clutterheart on Jan 30, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Casilla
How did Casilla hit for the winter season?
Secondly, historically, how does a player’s numbers in winter league compare to their numbers the following year in the majors? I don’t know if anyone has done a historical study, but I’m getting very used to hearing about prospects put up college like numbers in winter leagues, and go on to be incredibly unimpressive against major league competition.
Lastly – Liriano. What do the Twins do? Do they push him very lightly for two or three weeks? How do they get him rested? I know he was only going about 5 innings per game, but he still put a lot of pitches on his arm this winter. Maybe they put him in the bullpen for the first month or two of the season, so he doesn’t build up the innings.
As long as
Liriano pitches 5 innings with about a 85-90 pitch count, I am not going to be too worried about his arm. At this point, Liriano should only throw 5 innings. The remaining 4 innings should be left up to the bullpen.
N.B. I could become very used to the 5 IP, 10 K Liriano of the winter leagues.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Really
MLB only has him at 11.2 innings for DWL, all three in december. Does this exclude playoffs or something? How do I find his cumulative stats?
Anyway, I’m guessing that he threw 30-50 innings. You’re not concerned that his arm might not have 150-200 in it for the regular season? And that if it does, it might not have 20-30 in it for the post season?
Secondly, that’s exactly my point – how many Ks per inning should be expected from a guy who put up, let’s say, 12+ k/9IP in the DWL? 9? 5? Does this stat mean anything. Joe Mauer sturck out 39 in 19 IP his senior year in high school. Let’s put him on the mound. I’d be happy with that a guy who would go undefeated (4-0 that year), with a 1.20 ERA, and 18 k/9. And I’m sure that is what we should expect, since he did it before, against much guys who weren’t in the major leagues.
Sorry, the sarcasm’s kinda thick, but let’s get a little perspective here. What should we really expect out of someone who puts up stats in the DWL that would be very good in the MLB?
Liriano
type stats are the stats put up in the DWL that would be very good in the MLB.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Based on?
What do you base your assessment on? I know that 10k/5IP would be good in the MLB, but are you saying that pitchers who put up those numbers, on average put up similar numbers the following year?
For instance, my brief review of 2008 DWL stats says the following players put up the best k/9 (in order of most IP):
Jesus Matos: 11 k/9
Francisco Cruceta: 15
Jesse Chavez: 15
Santo Luis: 12
Carlos Almozar: 12
etc. You may have noticed that none of these guys were exactly competing for the Cy Young award.
I applaud
you for using the Cy Young Award on Relief Pitchers…let me think, when was the last time a relief pitcher won the Cy Young?…2003 NL Cy Young Eric Gagne – so not very often.
Plus, most of these players are in the minor leagues, every one I believe, except for Carlos Almozar. I might add that Jesse Chavez and Santo Luis have put up some excellent minor league numbers…Santo Luis had a 1.82 ERA this past year with 40K in 34 IP.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Exactly
You said it yourself, they’re all in the minor leagues. As in, none of them are good enough right now to be in the major leagues.
I’ll stop beating down clutterheart’s dreams, but my point is that we shouldn’t get excited because Liriano can dominate some A and AA baseball players. He proved he could do that 5 years ago. The question is, can he play evenly (ERA under 4.5 over 150+ IP) with major leaguers?
Roger’s comment below is a lot more relevant. The fact that there were major league quality players is meaningful. But none of these guys are scary to face. My argument here is not that Liriano sucks, or anything like it. I’m basically just proposing that, until we have a good adjustment factor, we shouldn’t put to much faith in winter league numbers. He’s pitching well, and people who are watching say that his pitches look better; that should be our source of optimism, and we should be careful in extrapolating too far.
You’re welcome to disagree, but I doubt Liriano puts up better than a 4.50 ERA as a starter, and if he’s a reliever, I doubt at the end of the year, that Gardy is putting him in high pressure situations. I hope I’m wrong, I’m just giving a sense of how much credibility I give winter league numbers for a major leaguer.
Six of nine are in the major leagues. The rest are AAA players.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think the lack of walks is the most encouraging part
that was his main issue last year. Also, if he was putting up numbers like this in AAA, we would be very excited. I am not expecting a cy young award, but I think 4.50 ERA is a pretty conservative projection. His K/BB ratio was good enough to be better than that last year, if not for some bad timing and bad luck. If he honed his control, I think something in the low 4s is a better projection.
by Steven Ellingson on Jan 31, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
or even
in the high 3…as most people are projecting.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
I don't know about his ERA
But if he pitches like this, we can expect a FIP in the high 3s.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
If his K rate stays around 8 like it was and his walk rate can drop to less than 3 again he should be in much better shape. He should have a good shot, all this liriano positivity is exciting but I have to keep my overall expectations tempered until I see him do it again in the majors.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I think
that the contact rates and stuff that he had last year as a major leaguer, combined with the stuff he has shown this winter, are very encouraging.
But I do agree with you in that I put zero stock in winter league numbers.
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Casilla did very well in the playoffs...
…playing nearly every game and hitting .344 Average. He did not play regularly late in the regular winter season and didn’t hit anywhere near like he did in the playoffs.
As for Liriano’s competition, in the final game he was facing Casilla, Ramon Santiago (Tigers), Nelson Cruz (Texas), Juan Francisco and Wilson Betemit (cups of coffee this year with Cincinnati and KC, respectively). The other four were high minor league guys, older veterans who were in the Mexican League last summer, etc. So it wasn’t the Yankees, but it was a respectable lineup.
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