Adrian Beltre Close to Signing?

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 7:13 PM EST in News Comment 41 comments

Update 6:15 pm - Sounds like it's going to be the Red Sox. Which means, basically, that Mike Lowell should be available for a Big Mac and a high five.

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes is chronicalling what might be the end of Adrian Beltre's free agent period. Just this afternoon, Yahoo's Tim Brown has Tweeted that he's close to choosing, Michael Silverman says the Red Sox aren't one of the finalists, and Jon Heyman says they are. What's the truth? I don't know!

And they're all Tweets!

Hearing anything on your end? Post it in the comments! Until such time as Beltre chooses, I'll hope against hope that it's our Twins who will reel him in.

Twins - The only real question is whether or not the Twins could push their 2010 opening day salary to the $100 million range by signing Beltre. If they do this, that would really have to be it for the Twins this off-season. Right?

Red Sox - Legitimate candidates, to be sure. But with Kevin Youkilis, Casey Kotchman and Mike Lowell still around to mix and match in the corners, signing Beltre would do Boston a disservice. It forces them to move Lowell, which they obviously want to do anyway, but with all of his money on the books it puts them between a rock and a hard place. Either they pay him to ride the bench, or they pay him to pay for somebody else. That's the reality of that situation.

Athletics - The story of Eric Chavez makes me cry. It's a shame to see talent deteriorate like it has with him--through injury.

Mariners - They've already signed Chone Figgins, but you never know, they may choose to get creative in the infield. Of course, like Lowell above, it'd makes Jose Lopez available for peanuts. Just like Lowell, I wouldn't take Lopez for peanuts.

Cardinals - They're looking. We know that. If Beltre did sign with St. Louis and rebound a bit offensively, he becomes a nice supplemental bat for them behind Albert Pujols and (probably) Matt Holliday.

Orioles - They've already signed Garrett Atkins. Would they pay millions for another third baseman? The Gold Glove defense is there, and it might give them some nice depth if Atkins can rebound as well.

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please god Twins

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog

by fetch9 on Jan 4, 2010 2:57 PM EST reply actions

Let's hope

It would make a world of sense. (and maybe even save some money on a Mauer extension)

by Luke in MN on Jan 4, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions

and I'll just point this out

Joe Sheehan thought it was a no-brainer match last week (http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=689):

Angel Vill. (A Dark Cell): Where do you see Adrian Beltre landing and will he continue to play in pitchers parks?

Joe Sheehan: I mean…this is pretty obvious, right? Gardy loves defense, the Twins need power, and Beltre will be inexpensive.

by Luke in MN on Jan 4, 2010 3:09 PM EST reply actions

My only objection

to what Sheehan says is that Beltre would be inexpensive. He’s the best still available, and there are more than enough open spots to go around. With a handful of bidders, I think inexpensive is a relative term…if $10 million is cheap.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

I hope so

But I’m not betting on it.

by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST reply actions

My question

Would we rather trade Perkins for Kouzmanoff or sign Beltre?

Pros:

Trade – takes a headcase off the twins hands while providing the Twins with a good 3B (almost gold glove caliber) with a relatively cheap contract.

Sign – Gold glove 3B, power bat.

Cons:

Trade – Kouzmanoff does not have the career that Beltre has had. Other than that, I can think of no other cons.

Sign – Amount of money that it would probably take to sign Beltre and the fact that Beltre may be on the downward slope of his career.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 4, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions

I like Beltre more than I like Kouz,

but that’s just me. Having said that, Kouz might fit better, helping the Twins get something of value when trading from a position of some excess.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I like Beltre more than Kouz. However, the thing that would concern me is that Beltre may be in the start of his declining years, whereas Kouz would just be beginning his prime years.

Agree. The Twins would get rid of Perkins (who I personally want out of MN) and would receive a good 3B in return. Also, when/if Valencia is ready, it gives the Twins some luxury. Would they have it go this way: Kouz – 3B, Kubel – LF, Valencia – DH or this way: Valencia/Kouz – traded, Valencia/Kouz – 3B?

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 4, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Go with the cheaper guy

Perkins for Kouz is a net win for the organization. Beltre will provide wins but at full marginal cost. Trading for Kouz and signing Orlando Hudson might be the way to go. Beltre signing anywhere is good for the Twins because there is one less suitor for the remaining infielders (Tejada, etc) and the price on them comes down.

by DJL44 on Jan 4, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Tejada

Anyone else see Tejada ending up in Oakland again?

by DJL44 on Jan 4, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

I could see it,

if they don’t get Beltre.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Mauer

Definitely have to go with the cheaper guy here. Yes, Beltre would be the obvious choice but with Mauer being a FA next season they Twins will need spend big to resign him. Adding Beltre would probably cost the Twins 9mil to 10 mil (min 2year contract per season.

by cthunder on Jan 4, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

I'm guessing Perkins is gone regardless

So signing Beltre and then trading Perk for something else (say an Uggla or Phillips) would be awesome… Though I’ll reiterate what I said previously, I’m not getting my hopes up on Beltre. There’s nothing indicating we are getting him.

by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 4, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

It seems if we could trade Perkins

we would have do it. Are other teams holding out on him until the Twins lower their price?

by b1 on Jan 4, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Depends on Beltre's price tag

with both Beltre and Kouzmanoff, we’d be getting a RH power bat that has been limited by large parks in Seattle and San Diego the past few years. Beltre projects as a better bat and glove, on the order of 1 WAR or so. IF we can get Beltre to sign a 2 year / $16M deal, I’d prefer him to trading for Kouz. Being arb eligible for the first time, Kouzmanoff would make something on the order of $5M over the same two years, with an additional year of team control. Yes, we’d be paying for the marginal difference between Beltre and Kouz, but it would not be long term, and I’ll gladly take the improvement next year.

However, if Beltre is holding out for 3 years / $30M, then no thanks.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 4, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

MLBTR

was saying he probably wouldn’t play for the Twins because he wanted to be on one of the coasts. Weren’t there rumors before about him not wanting to play for the Twins?

by ben2 on Jan 4, 2010 4:04 PM EST reply actions

Back at the end of '08 when the Twins

were pursuing him, he “suddenly” added them to his no-trade list. It was a maneuver that guaranteed him more money in case of a trade to MN, because the clause was able to be bought out. This is the only thing I can remember which might lend credence to the idea he didn’t want to play for MN, but I saw it more as a financial move than an “I don’t want to play for the Twins” move. It does say we’re not one of his favorites, though.

Hopefully with the new stadium and the stellar base of the lineup he’d reconsider.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that’s what I was thinking of. I’d be happy to see him with the Twins, but I think he’ll end up in California – I’ll bet Anaheim.

by ben2 on Jan 4, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

I'm guessing it will be the Angels

As much as I’d like to see the Twins sign Beltre, I’m skeptical. Since the Angels have lost both Lackey and Figgins, Beltre would make a lot of sense for them. I have heard nothing, other than listing the Twins along with a number of other teams as “having a hole at third base”.

by Adam Peterson on Jan 4, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions

RE: Angels

Good one. Should have thought of them, too. They seem like a great fit for Beltre, actually.

by Jesse on Jan 4, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Angels

Seems like a good fit. Returns to SoCal, warm weather, etc. Would be interesting to see how much money the Angels save by ‘trading’ Beltre for Figgins, if it happens. And then again what about Brandon Wood? Could he be had for Perkins?

Cards seem like an option for him—I think they have a middling prospect slotted for third. But I’d guess he’s the fallback to Holliday, and that they wouldn’t get both of them. Still, I have trouble seeing the Cards dole out $100 Million+ to Holliday and then turn around and have to fork out (???) $200 million to Pujols?

by Han Joelo on Jan 4, 2010 7:19 PM EST reply actions

Beltre

Basically $15 million for two seasons.

Who do the Sox spin Lowell to, now. They could use a second sacker (Casilla) in reserve or some bullpen help, perhaps?

Rumor of Lowell for the Mets Castillo with the Mets signing Hudson.

Who do the Twins get from this mess…of, yes, forgive me. A new address and keys to an outdoor stadium (anyone tell them its below zero in Minnesota right now?)

Let’s get excited about outdoor baseball, kids!

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Jan 4, 2010 8:25 PM EST reply actions

What now?

At this point, Perkins + mid-level prospect to the Padres for Kouzmanoff makes the most sense. Then, sign Hudson. If he’s not available, you can live with Punto at second as long as he bats ninth.

Nothing else makes sense, other than signing Hudson and signing Crede. Trading for Kouzmanoff makes more sense in the long run and will be cheaper.

by bbeeck on Jan 4, 2010 8:49 PM EST reply actions

Signing Tejada makes sense

There’s also Felipe Lopez and Adam Kennedy.

by DJL44 on Jan 4, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah...

If we’re going to sign Kennedy, I would rather re-sign Cabrera and move him to second. He’s basically the same player. Tejada would be fine but he will want too much money, unless he’s the last guy left available.

I’d be okay with Lopez, but he isn’t a huge upgrade over Punto for the increase in payroll, especially considering Punto is due for hitting around .270-.280 this year, according to his every-other-year successes since he came to the Twins.

I still prefer the Hudson/Crede and Hudson/Kouzmanoff scenarios. Even the Kouzmanoff/Punto one makes more sense for the Twins, once payroll is considered.

by bbeeck on Jan 4, 2010 9:00 PM EST reply actions

I'd rather

have Punto at 2nd then O-Cab and it probably isn’t even close.

by ckb on Jan 4, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions

Overall

I’m not sure. Defensively, obviously, but who knows. They won’t resign him anyways, which is fine by me. I was just saying I’d rather have him than Kennedy.

by bbeeck on Jan 4, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

I just looked at his hitting stats and Punto was even worse last year than I thought. I knew he was bad but daamn. Orlando Cabrera’s .705 OPS does look pretty good in comparison. That is sad.

by ckb on Jan 4, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

Punto had a 39 OPS+ until August

I did a post showing that it was one of the five worst offensive performances by a regular at any position in Twins history. Obviously, he turned it around and had a decent finish to his season. But how can any team rely on a guy who regularly hits like Houston Jiminez?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

Has there been any talk of

moving Hardy to 3b. Don’t stone me just asking if there has been any talk.

by b1 on Jan 4, 2010 9:38 PM EST reply actions

I don't think so

Mainly because it wouldn’t solve anything. Punto’s range slipped a little last year; he might as well play 3B instead of SS, and Hardy is a very good SS, especially range-wise. Also, there aren’t as many FA shortstops available, or through the trade market.

by bbeeck on Jan 4, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

Cheap signing

1 year, $10M. I would guess he’s going for the ring.

by DJL44 on Jan 4, 2010 10:16 PM EST reply actions

I'm guessing ...

The ring would be nice, but he’s going for the 10 million. The other teams were offering multiple years, but probably at a much lower salary. Next year, with Lowell for sure off the books and a season away from pitcher friendly Safeco, he probably figures he get his mega dollar multi-year contract.

by sploorp on Jan 5, 2010 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Melvin Mora?

He still needs to find a home. Is he better than Crede? I think he has been healthier and have similar #’s…

The options for a 3B are starting to shrink and the FO still has to focus on Mauer so I hope something gets done soon.

by caluofmn on Jan 5, 2010 3:07 PM EST reply actions

With every signing (DeRosa, Beltre, Glaus,...) it is more likely the Twins will end up with Kouz

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'd like that

Kouz is probably the best 3B option available now, and his salary should be at least comparable to the others, if not cheaper. Assuming that Lowell, Mora, and Tejada don’t accept huge pay cuts, at least.

"So [Kouzmanoff]’s going to make decent monkey, but he’d be affordable." - Jesse

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 5, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

I would

prefer Kouzmanoff to Tejada. Kouz is still young and in his prime. Kouz has some good defense and good bat. Tejada is past his prime, moved from SS to 3B, and so his defense is starting to fall and his offense is already plummeting. Plus, Kouz provides the Twins with luxury when Valencia is ready in terms of having chips to trade.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Jan 5, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions