Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Looking Toward 2011
by Jesse on Oct 10, 2010 11:27 AM EDT
in Breakfast & Baseball
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PrintThere's still more baseball to be played this year, just not by our Twins. I plan on enjoying it, and cheering for whoever advances to the ALCS to face the Yankees. In the meantime, Twins fans can start looking forward to 2011.
- Jim Thome is leaning towards returning next season. Hopefully it's with the Twins. We know he enjoyed his time here, and provided we could find another bat to platoon against left-handed pitchers it would be a good fit. I anticipate the Twins facilitating a Thome return, provided the salary expectations aren't too high.
- Speaking of salary, we still don't know how much money the Twins will be putting towards payroll next year. But here's what we do know: there are seven players under contract worth a total of $67.75 million (Joe Nathan, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn). Jason Kubel and Nick Punto have options worth $10.25 million, with a $350K buyout for Kubel and a $500K buyout for Punto. There are ten players who are eligible for arbitration (Clay Condrey, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Pat Neshek, Delmon Young, J.J. Hardy, Matt Capps and Francisco Liriano). Including that the remainder of any roster is filled out by league-minimum players, the Twins are looking at a payroll of approximately $100 million (give or take a couple million) for Opening Day. No doubt there will be some room on top of that, but nobody can guarantee how much. I'd venture between $10 and $15 million, but don't hold me to it.
- The Twins have a number of free agents coming off the books that aren't included in that $100+ million: Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier. In addition to Thome I'd like to see Pavano and Crain return, but we'll see what happens.
- There is a lot of time for added perspective at this juncture, but from where we sit right now these are the biggest needs I see for the Twins: the addition of a strikeout pitcher in both the rotation and the bullpen, a quality right-handed bat for the middle of the lineup (may have to be a platoon option with Thome, one who can hit left-handed pitching), and options off the bench that can hit.
- The front office is going to have some difficult decisions to make. If they want to address the needs that I've suggested, those needs are going to cost money. They're expensive. Even if the Twins don't bring back any free agents, $10 or $15 million won't be enough to answer all those suggested additions. Minnesota may choose to trade a player under contract, or non-tender one of their more expensive arbitration-eligible players.
- No matter what direction the organization chooses to go, there will be changes made. It will be interesting to see where they come.
- Finally: Ron Gardenhire isn't going anywhere. It sounds like he'll be receiving an extension very soon.
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I hate to say it but..............
Carl Pavano – We shouldn’t resign him. He is going to cost way too much money and to tell you the truth, he was our worst starter in the 2nd half. We should use the money that would have been for Pavstache on, as Jesse said, a strike-out pitcher.
Jim Thome – Resign him if he’s cheap.
Orlando Hudson – Resign him. He was the only Twin besides Delmon Young who didn’t falter against the Yankees.
Jesse Crain – Crain messed up in the playoffs but he is a strike out pitcher. We can’t lose him.
Matty G – He struggles against good teams. Don’t resign him.
Jon Rauch - Rauch should come cheap. He has good stuff and he showed he could stand up to the Yankees by striking out two yankees batters with the bases loaded.
Voted Thome in the poll.
But I wouldn’t mind any/all of these guys coming back. Problems: Pavs might be expensive, and Guerrier might suck.
Same.
I’d like to see Thome, Pavs, Hudson, and Crain back for sure, if the money is right.
2010 Postseason: FTY.
Agreed
If we don’t bring any of these relievers back, there are some huge holes to fill – and I don’t believe our farm system is deep enough to handle that on it’s own.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Oct 10, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice assessment of the needs
I think a right-handed bat or two could come more cheaply if the Twins limit their search to right-handed bats with big platoon splits—the Twins don’t need somebody who can mash righties (they’ve got plenty of that, especially if Morneau returns).
As for the free agents, I think the Twins should try to resign Thome and Hudson if they can get them both on reasonable one-year deals. I’d like to see Crain resigned too.
I like Pavano, but no way should the Twins sign him to a multi-year deal, which is what he is likely to command. I think Guerrier probably prices himself out of what the Twins should pay too.
Oh, and please, please do not pick up Punto’s option. He’s undesirable at virtually any price, but he’s an abomination at 5 million.
I'm just confused
as to why people don’t wanna sign Pavano to a multi-year deal. I could see a 2-3 year deal if he would accept it.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Quite a few reasons
He’s old (will be 35 next year), he’s susceptible to injury, he’s not as good as his ERA this year suggests (both his peripherals and his recent track history suggest this), and the Twins have plenty of starting pitching (Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Duensing, Blackburn in the majors with Gibson, Bromberg, and probably Wimmers ready soon enough in the minors).
All of the above suggest there is a better use for the money long-term than tying it into Pavano for 2-3 years at ages 35-37.
by WolvesFan03 on Oct 10, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand what you're saying
but I feel like if we don’t pick up another veteran, our pitching staff will be left with guys who are on and off and Pavano kind of anchors the pitching staff. Anything short of an ace, and I think we should hold onto Pavano.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Age
Pavano is an older pitcher. I love this guy. But, if you look at his second half, particularly his performance in September and October, you can see that he fades down the stretch. He relies too much on a fastball that’s getting a bit slower each year. So, if he wants a one year deal, I say we sign him. If he wants a three year deal, no way. He’s prone to injury and he’s losing a bit each year.
Pavstache
Except for his stiff neck, he has been quite healthy this season. I like him, I like the way he goes about his business without a lot of drama. He is also a good, steady, calm influence in the clubhouse and that counts for something too. If we can get him for another year or 2 I would say do it!
In looking past next year for who I want
1. Crain- Best Relief pitcher of the year, even taking into account the horrid april and may.
2. Hudson- Was a key part in making the Postseason, just a charismatic enigma in the locker room and is a fan favorite. Can help us out for a few years.
3. Thome- One more year for the big fella, did a fantastic job this year, and would do wonders in a DH platoon.
4. Pavano- I cant help but think some of this year was luck, the majojrity of the second half, he was out worst starter. But I cant ignore the fact that he was our most important pitcher this year, he kept us in the race until we didnt need him to anymore. I want him back, if not for only the mustache.
5. Matty G- He will be expensive on the open market, and we really dont need him, but for the right price I wouldnt mind him back.
6. Rauch- He was good for what we payed for him, but I see no reason to bring him back for other than the fear he struck into all of us.
What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your entire rambling incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Oct 10, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
lol
He was good for what we payed for him, but I see no reason to bring him back for other than the fear he struck into all of us.
Classic.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Pavano, Pavano, Pavano.
I can’t tell you how upset I’m gonna be if I don’t see that guy back in the Twins uniform next year. I’ll be beyond depressed about it. I’ve loved watching that guy for the past two seasons. He’s a great, underrated pitcher who obviously respects the game and has fun with it. I’ll be happy if they re-sign Pavano, but I wouldn’t ever be against re-signing any of the free agents. I sincerely do hope that Punto is back. I love watching that guy in the field, and I think he’s a good bench option defensively more than anything.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Kubel and Punto
Right now I’m leaning toward declining both options. Punto is obviously not worth more than a $1M deal, especially at age 33. Kubel’s poor defense, slow baserunning and extreme platoon splits that render him completely useless against LHP (career .666 OPS) make me lean toward declining his option also, especially if Thome is returning.
Dump Kubel, put Delmon in RF (finally!), bring up Ben Revere for LF and make Cuddyer rotate between corner OF, 1B and DH. Cuddyer is going to be an awfully highly paid bench player so dumping him wouldn’t hurt my feelings at all. I doubt you’ll find any takers unless you take another salary in return. They might find a better fit for that $$ outlay at another position (I’d trade Cuddyer for Carlos Beltran, for example, and make Span and Revere platoon in LF).
For pitching they’re not in bad shape with Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Duensing, Blackburn and both Gibson and Bromberg in AAA. Blackburn is overpaid so he’s the guy I’d be looking to deal. Rebuilding the bullpen is going to be the priority for pitching $$. Nathan, Capps and Mijares are the only guys worth a damn returning.
I’d offer arbitration to all the middle relievers and keep the one who accepts. Pavano will get a multiyear deal and it won’t be from the Twins.
Hudson should get an offer of another year at the same terms and he just might take it.
Dump Perkins and Condrey, give Hardy and Liriano extensions (buy low on Hardy) and let the rest of the arbitration guys go year-to-year.
Drop Punto & Kubel
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Oct 10, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Kubel might have trade value.
If there’s a team out there who’d be interested at the level of his option, I’d pick it up and trade him. Not sure how much Kubel would be worth on the open market, but I’m sure somebody would give him 2-3 years…and some teams might not want to give him that much, or be interested in competing against other clubs for his services.
Punto should defintely go, but...
Kubel may just have a comeback year in him. If we resign Thome, then it makes more sense to get rid of Kubel, as they are too much alike to keep both. If we don’t sign Thome, then I think we should bring Kubel back.
by San Diego Viking on Oct 10, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
As I was about to say
I think he had his career year in 2009. Unless playing in the outfield really messes with his offense that much.
Punto needs to be gone period.
I would love to see Cuddyer gone too. Not sure how that’s going to happen, but, I’m not getting paid to know those things.
Span’s performance this year made me long for Gomez. At least the guy could field his position and didn’t get picked off first base all the time.
Cuddyer = Jeter
Next year they’re both going to be overpaid, under-performing franchise players who would make 1/2 their salary on any other team.
Those guys are both planted where they are for the remained of their careers, no matter what it costs the front office.
Look for both of them to be coaching for their respective teams one day.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Oct 10, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not sure
Both will end up overpaid, but I don’t think they should be compared. Jeter is worth much more to the Yankees as a fading player than Cuddyer does to the Twins. Jeter has become his own iconic brand in NY and he will be forever associated with the team, who will maximize the money he brings in through jersey sales, ratings on their regional sports network, etc. They’ll be selling tons of memoriabilia as he marches toward 3,000 hits in 2011. That will be worth a lot of money. So if we hear that Jeter signs for $20 million a year, don’t be stunned. Realize that he’ll bring in more money to the Yankees than they’ll ever pay out. Cuddyer can do none of that for the Twins. He should be paid only on what he can do on the field. Jeter is going to be paid for what he can do for the Yankees off the field. The rich get richer, and in this case that’s both the Yankees and Jeter.
I voted for Hudson in the poll because I think we need him more than any of the others. But I’d like to see them resign Thome too, and I think he’d sign for a reasonable amount.
I think Kubel has to go and move Young to RF. I’d like to see them make a run at Crawford, shift Span to LF, and the OF defense goes from mediocre to very good again.
I don’t resign Pavano unless he’s willing to stay for a reduced contract. I don’t think we can afford him. And honestly, he’s redundant with the other starters.
I’ve said what I think our needs are:
1) an ace
2) improvement from the leadoff spot in the order
3) bench hitting (this could be platoon right-handers)
4) a bench coach. I don’t want Gardy fired. But I do think they’ve lost a good bit of their former aggressiveness on the bases.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 10, 2010 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
1) I think that Francisco is close to being considered an Ace in my book
2) Span had a bad year, and I think he’ll bounce back next year
3) Agreed
4) I think you’ve got something there, but I think a lot of it had to do with the whole New York Yankees fear or something. They didn’t play Twins Baseball.
Good points.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Yes
Liriano after a healthy, restful winter will hopefully be very, very exciting on Opening Day 2011.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Oct 10, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Liriano, imho, is not an ace until...
he gets his head straight. We lost game 1 mainly because Liriano couldn’t keep his composure (and/or because Gardy didn’t recognize soon enough that Liriano couldn’t keep his composure). He WILL NEVER be an ace until he can get through those specific types of situations. You can quote me FIP and xFIP til your blue in the face, but the difference between Liriano and Sabathia was overly evident in game 1. Liriano may have had the better FIP, but Sabathia was clearly the ACE in that game.
I think Liriano can still make that jump, but if he can’t or doesn’t, then we need to try and find an ace somewhere. And Pavano/Baker/Slowey are obviously not that guy either.
by San Diego Viking on Oct 10, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Sabathia was the ace?!
Sabathia was the ace? He WALKED IN the tying run for the Twins! Walked it in! When he left, it was a 4-4 game! How is HE the ace out of that?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Because his mentality...
because he got the win… because even though he walked that run in, he still got out of the inning WITHOUT BEING BEHIND (Unlike, um Lirianio).
As I tried to state with the FIP comment: stats don’t always tell the whole story as opposed to what actually happens in the game.
And be honest… if we had faced Sabathia again in Game 4, how good of a chance would we have had? Not very, because, AS AN ACE, Sabathia wouldhave shut us down.
by San Diego Viking on Oct 10, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Zen
Frankie needs to spend the winter doing yoga or martial arts or something to learn how to have a killer instinct and remain calm in the face of danger. Seriously, he is almost there. When he is “on” he is fun to watch. He doesn’t fuss around too much on the mound, he just stands there and stares keenly but with a very calm look. If he could figure out how to harness his stuff for 7 innings he’d be menacing. I am not ready to give up on him yet. But I want to see more killer instinct and less hiding under a blankie and getting comforting pats in the dugout.
Any possible way we could afford crawford?
Plus I bet he’s jonesing for a big market, boston, LA, something like that. I would be extremely sad to see him go to the yanks
"Brian Cardinal left Purdue being the only Boilermaker to receive both the "Mr. Hustle" Award and the "Courage" Award four years in a row"
Crawford wouldn't help our troubles with left-handed pitching
But he would be a major upgrade over Kubel in the OF. My guess is that he’s way too expensive on the open market, but I’d love him at a reasonable price.
We need someone like Werth.
I know Werth probably isn’t going to happen….but, it’d be nice.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
A guy like Werth
Fits our needs so perfectly that I’d be willing to significantly overpay. Even still, he’s almost surely going to command a ridiculous contract that we just won’t be able to match.
Which is why I said: “I know Werth probably isn’t going to happen….but, it’d be nice.”
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, I wasn't contradicting you
Just reiterating that even if I wanted the Twins to overpay for him, he probably still can’t happen.
To me the big issue is to find a good defensive CF, preferably with a bit of pop in the bat, and then shift Span and Young. I mentioned Crawford because he’d be the ‘dream.’ But there’s got to be a similar, if cheaper, player on the market or available from trade as well.
If that CF was a leadoff hitter too, then it’s all to the good. I also think we’ve overpaid to keep Cuddy. But he’s a versatile player, and given Morneau’s fragility the last couple seasons, he’s needed. To be fair, he’s also better in the OF defensively than any of our current options and anyone we could probably bring in.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Span played a decent defensive CF this year, posting a 5.7 UZR. And as far as leading off, in 2008 and 2009 he had an OBP of .390. He’s completely suited to leadoff, despite an underwhelming year.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
The biggest point I can make
is that this is no longer the Twins Organization that can’t afford to bring in/back these players…with their new revenue stream from Target Field, they most definitely should be aggressive this off-season.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
It all depends on how much the organization is willing to put into payroll.
That’s going to have the biggest effect on how the FO is able to approach the winter.
Yup yup...
I have to say, I really think we should decline both of those options.
Kubel – Seriously unlikely to be worth his option. He’s only been worth more than 10 million once in his career, last year. This year he’s been almost worthless. (His defense is AWFUL.)
I like him. I’d miss him. Emotionally, I kind of wish they’d keep him… but… he’s just not any good unless he hits like a beast, and he’s only done that once, last year.
Punto… Better than Kubel, but still not near the value of his option. Decline. We’ll miss him… but decline. He’s not worth at that price. Half of that? Maybe even a bit more than half of that… Sure!
Not that I disagree about Kubel's option
But his 2011 option is for 5.25 million, not 10 million. Jesse just combined the options for Punto/Kubel in the original post.
Oh whew.
I was really afraid they were both 10 million a piece.
At $5 million… Picking it up isn’t a terrible idea. Not a particularly good one to my mind, I bet we can do better, but it would be OK.
I think you're right
Kubel is one of my favorite twins, but his limitations are obvious and exacerbate two of the team’s biggest weaknesses (outfield defense and hitting LHPs).
I think the Twins can and must do better than him in 2011 if they hope to compete with the Yankees. That might mean platooning him or it might mean replacing him altogether.
He's not worth 5 million either.
What’s with the emotional ties to Kubel? Where do they come from, just curious.
You've never heard of anyone being a fan of a player before?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"When he dove I slapped Nick Punto." Gardenhire on Mauer's head first dive into 1B.
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 10, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
In as much...
…as I am a fan of particular players it’s because they help us win. Can Kubel help us do that in a way that makes the price-tag reasonable? That’s the consideration here.
A Bandwagon-Player Fan!!
If you are good for us I like you, if not… well you get the idea
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 10, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You act like that's a bad thing.
The team is more than the sum of its parts and baseball is a business. Are you saying we shouldn’t replace someone with a better player just because we like them?
Maybe
Some of us get attached to the people as much as the stats the people produce. So while we understand how they may not be “worth” what we’re offering them or maybe are redundant… we still wish the person could stay with us.
Yeah, this.
The players are more than just walking stats. They are you know, people. With personalities and such.
2010 Postseason: FTY.
It's a balancing act...
How long do you hold on to likeable players? Until they retire, or until they are past their prime?
Would you rather have a playoff team WITH Cuddyer, or a World Series Champion WITHOUT him? (for example)
It’s obvious that we don’t want to be the Yankees, but we don’t want to be the Cubs, either.
Blasphemy!
they are not people, they are nothing but stats
walking groupings of #’s and formulas in a meat bag!
people! … now I am taking crazy pills
Probably something about really timely grand slams. For the cycle, off Rivera. You know….that stuff.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say he was worth 5 million
In fact, I said that the Twins can and must do better than him in 2011.
I’ve always liked Kubel because I’ve followed him since he was drafted and admired his profile: a high average hitter, with good patience, who could also hit for power. He basically epitomized that in 2009, and while he was atrocious this year, I do think he’s better than what we saw in 2010.
Right but I wanted to reply to both you and Patrick42
But two separate posts seemed a bit excessive and I was more interested in your answer. I’ll try and quote next time.
I think the repeated trades etc. especially of people like Santana have made me take a bit of a cynical position. To me they’re all supposed to be professionals. Getting attached to them doesn’t pay though of course I hope they are enjoying their job because it’s a damn fun job.
kubel's option is 5 mill
and i think at that price you have to pick it up.
after that maybe we can trade him in the offseason, or if we don’t get any decent offers hope he rebounds next year and trade him at the deadline if his value is up.
current resident: alexi casilla
by gardy's dog house on Oct 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see doing a sign and trade w/ Kubel. But the problem is I don’t think anyone would give value for him.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 10, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the Orioles are looking for a power bat, which Kubel could be.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m sure the Orioles are looking to us for answers to take down the Yankees.
;)
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Oct 10, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Kubes
I don’t think the Twins should pick up his option. He hasn’t earned it. And a guy with that many postseason at bats and that much futility seems destined for mediocrity.
At the same time, Kubel reminds me a lot of Ortiz. He’ll catch on in Boston, New York, Baltimore or Anaheim and they’ll teach him how to hit. The Twins just don’t care enough about it.
I think having all his postseason at bats against a team he’s never been able to hit has probably helped his postseason mediocrity.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair
Fair point, but the question is WHY can’t Kubel hit the Yankees in the post-season? A corollary: shouldn’t a veteran with several post-season opportunities be able to perform in the post-season?
Right now, perhaps I am bitter, but I would rather see some of the other kids get an opportunity. Kubel just doesn’t have the head to be a big-time big-leaguer. I suppose 5 million isn’t that much and for that price Kubel may be worth it. But he is someone who, mentally, is Gardy. He doesn’t have the confidence he needs to succeed in the post-season. He’s a good guy — good community guy, clubhouse guy, etc. But if we’re going to win a world series, we need guys who can execute in the post-season. Kubel just doesn’t seem to have the goods to do it.
I love how people that more than likely have no knowledge of what it takes to be a MLB player
Come out and say “this guy just doesn’t have the head/toughness/mentality/etc. to be a big-leaguer”.
Where do you get that stuff from? Ludicrous!
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 10, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You’re judging a player based on a total of 32 at bats in a career. I’m not sure how anybody can draw any conclusions based on 32 at bats.
And look at how many times he has faced Yankees pitching
That includes postseason play. And anyway you cut it, it’s still only 85 plate appearances in a career that has had 2477. That’s less than half of a percent. It’s not fair to make a judgement based on that small of a sample size.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, saying that “we need guys who can execute in the post-season” is a totally ridiculous thing to say. Good hitters are good hitters no matter what. Bad hitters are bad hitters no matter what. Look at players who have had TONS of postseason play. Like, Derek Jeter.
Regular season numbers: .314/.381/.452
Post season numbers: .312/.381/.475
Virtually the same thing.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
You're clearly a huge backer but ...
…here’s what I see. A player 25-28 has had 3 seasons of ~800 OPS and one season of ~900. Since he’s an almost exclusively an offensive player, that’s what we have to look at. The problem is whether his age 27 season is closer to his norm or his one good year. Isn’t 28 the traditional peak for a player? Isn’t it a decent assumption to make that where he is now is where he is going to be as a player?
So is an 800 OPS player with negligible value on defense worth 5 million considering other pieces we have.
I don’t think it’s fair to look at this season as his traditional peak year, because of the simple fact that he got robbed of several home runs and extra base hits due to Target Field.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
unlike Jorge Posada
Regular season numbers: .275/.377/.479
Post season numbers: .240/.351/.381
Posada’s post season numbers (453 PA) are worse compared to ANY of his 16 regular seasons.
Look up Hrbek, Joe Morgan, or Mickey Mantle. All had TONS of post season at bats, and all hit much, much worse. Despite have 222 PAs, Joe Morgan only batted .182 in the post season, yet has a career batting average of .271, and he also had a .150 drop in OPS.
Also, what is the magical number for an adequate sample size to make judgments about a hitter? 100 ABs? 200ABs? 500ABs? Is it a percentage of the total plate appearances, like you seem to suggest above? Is it 2%, 5%, 10%?
I think if you want to say someone is a good hitter or a bad hitter in the postseason, you need something similiar to what they would do throughout the course of a season.
There are so many hitters that only get just a few games in the postseason, and they are looked at as failures. If most, not all, but most players got as many post season ABs as Derek Jeter has, their postseason numbers would be in line with their regular season numbers.
by Brady Eyestone on Oct 10, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
WCTF Raises Hand
No, I will not miss Punto.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Oct 10, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly, the Twins payroll looks like it's going to START at 100 million
We have no clue how high they are willing to go and they do have holes to fill, especially if we lose guys. Hopefully the revenue was way higher than they expected (over 200 or so, at least that’s what I expected) because then the Twins will have money to spend on FA’s.
Otherwise they’ll have to depend on trades.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Hudson.
In a vacuum maybe I pick one of the other guys, but O-Dog is clearly the least replaceable. Unless you really want to see Casilla get another chance.
I’d rather see Fuentes back than any of the right-handed relievers, including Capps.
I’m honestly underwhelmed by Capps. He looks like Ron Davis reincarnated to me. But I admit that until we know if Nathan comes back 100%, we probably can’t let him go.
Guerrier and Punto to me are unwanted at any price. I’d like to see Fuentes back as well.
I don’t buy the enthusiasm for Liriano as an ace. I don’t think mentally he’s ready to have that kind of responsibility. And I think Span is better served further down the order. But I’ll admit that on the 2nd point I’m probably willing to wait for Spring to be sure. I don’t like Span as a CF, though.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 10, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
no way we don't resign capps
after trading him for ramos they made that pretty clear. also there is no way nathan comes back 100%. i question if he’ll be effective at all. fortunately the bullpen is an area of strength. we still have slama and waldrop to take the place of guys who we don’t bring back.
current resident: alexi casilla
by gardy's dog house on Oct 10, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe Capps just finished his first year of a two year contract,
Or is still arb eligible for another year. Point being, he is coming back next year.
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
Fire Bret Bielema!
Why don't people like span at CF?
do you really think he will be that much better in LF or RF?
by eau claire twins fan on Oct 10, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't really dislike Span in CF
Might be able to find a CF though and Span is flexible.
What do you guys think about Brandon Webb?
He could come cheap because of his injury. Also Ben Sheets is an option.
NO to Ben Sheets
A thousand times over.
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 10, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Span
To me can look awful in CF i think he is a great corner outfielder but if we move him there we dont have anyone to play CF and if you look around the league there arent that many good CF and even less that would be avalible and Revere i dont think is quite ready
This. Span is an exceptional corner outfielder. He’s a mediocre center fielder. Maybe he’ll get better at it. Maybe he won’t. But if the classic maxim of baseball is you need to be strong up the middle, then there’s no way having Span in CF is the best option.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 11, 2010 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Punto
This is the reason Punto hangs around.
Morneau needs his special Punto shake. Picking up Punto’s option is an investment in Morneau’s production!
This post is a lot harder than I thought it would be
Carl Pavano- I want him back, but not for more than 2/15. If we can get him for cheaper, even better, but I doubt it. Our pitchers have shown that they can’t seem to do it without a veteran presence. Liriano/Baker/Slowey/Duensing/Blackburn, just doesn’t feel good enough for me. I don’t think Gibson is ready until mid-season at the earliest. If not Pavano, then I want Lee….and you can’t always get what you want.
Jim Thome-Yes, yes, please yes! I’ve wanted him on this team for so long and he’s finally here. He needs to get 600 with us, he was everything I expected and more.
Orlando Hudson-Is there another option besides a trade? I don’t think so, unless it’s Luke Hughes. I feel we’re forced to sign him or be left with Casilla/Punto. Casilla impressed me again, but is he a full time player? Hudson’s not the greatest #2 hitter, but he’s better than we’ve had in awhile.
Jesse Crain-The only “power” pitcher in the bullpen. He’ll probably be kept for that reason. I don’t care one way or another though.
Jon Rauch-Don’t see the need to re-sign him
Matt Guerrier-Toughest reliever to decide on for me. I’ll say I want him to come back. I feel he’s more good than bad. He’s getting real expensive though..
As for Punto/Kubel. Don’t pick up Punto’s option. If he wants to come back, sign him for 2 million or less. If not, bye.
I’d like to trade Kubel, but I don’t know what we’d get for him. If Thome comes back they really need a RH platoon to go with him, one that mashes lefties. If the RHer can hit righties and play a position if needed then even better!
If all of my above wishes come true, it looks like a +120 million dollar payroll next year. I’m thinking that’s not going to happen. I really can’t see how we go after FA’s if the revenue isn’t way, way more than expected. Trades might be the way to go.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Casilla is a decent utility player
I think I’d like to keep him in that role
Casilla
Okay, off topic: did anyone wonder whether it was a good idea to pinch hit the switch hitting Casilla for Kubel when the Yankees brought in the lefthander to face Kubel? I think that this was in the 8th inning and we had the bases loaded at the time.
I’m not too high on Casilla but I will say that he often delivers in clutch situations. At the time, a grand slam was ideal but Kubel’s head (as evidenced by what happened) is elsewhere. Just curious.
Jesse...I believe Tolbert is not option eligible next year.
…He had 1yr 99 days coming into this season. He wasn’t with the Twins the entire year, so I suspect he is going to fall somewhat short of being a super 2.
As for next year, the Twins have to find dollars somewhere. Their first move has to be cutting bait with Punto. With Valencia “inked” into third, I see them going into spring training with Casilla-Tolbert battling for second with the loser being their utility guy. When you look at the needs elsewhere, paying $5-6mm to Hudson just isn’t in the cards.
Exercising Kubel’s option at $5,250,000 is also a no brainer. Now what you do with Kubel is another story. I believe the Twins need an ace. Pavano isn’t that guy and until he gets over his psychological problems, neither is Liriano. Thus, I think that Bill Smith’s biggest concern this winter is to trade from a position of strength for a real Ace…either Young or Kubel, plus one of their better starters (Baker or Slowey) and maybe a prospect for that guy. My personal choice will be Kubel, but you can’t use his value in a trade if you don’t exercise his option. If Kubel is gone, you really need toresign Thome while also finding a right handed DH/limited position guy to share DH duties with him.
I like your thinking
Isn’t offseason always fun :) All these options and possibilities to be guessed about.
Now that that is said, I wish we could not worry about that till after the WS. I guess that train left the station without us :S
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 10, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure any team makes this trade
The only reason teams are sometimes willing part with an ace is if they need to shed payroll or get some prospects for rebuilding. Kubel/Young + Baker/Slowey don’t really help much in those cases.
Bring on the Hot Stove!
Nothing takes the taste of post-season woe out of your mouth like idle speculation!
That or frozen rhubarb pie …
I can’t remember which.
I’ll get back to y’all on that.
*Frozen* rhubarb pie?
I hope you meant “home-made.”
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"When he dove I slapped Nick Punto." Gardenhire on Mauer's head first dive into 1B.
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 10, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
His Swing
Awwww, I really like Span’s swing, it’s ver quick and simple, I think. He had a down year, but I believe that he can recover.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I would like to see...
the Twins let go of Punto first of all. He is a great personality and leader on this team, but just too overpaid for his role on this team. Casilla and/or Tolbert can offer the same thing at a much cheaper price. I think we should pick up Kubel’s option, and throw him on the trade block. I heard the Rays may look to move Garza to open salary space… Idk if a return to Minnesota would even be a possibility, and I know he is not the ace we need. But he is a strike out pitcher with postseason experience. The Rays may be looking for a bat, especially left handed to compliment Longoria at a fair price, and Kubel fits that. Free agents I want brought back are Pavano, Thome, Hudson, Crain and Fuentes. I know that may be a tall order, but that’s my wishlist. I don’t see why people are so down on Cuddyer…. I understand he is NOT putting up numbers to justify his contract, but he is 100% the vocal leader of this club, which I think is more important than alot of people think. Not to mention how valuable his versatility is. I think we need to give Delmon an extension. He had a break out year, and may only get better. I still see him as the .300/30/100 guy we all thought he would be, and he is right handed to compliment the M&M boys.
Sad ending to the season
guess it’s time to start checking out mlbtraderumors.com 10 times a day again.
by eau claire twins fan on Oct 10, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions
My THoughts
1. THome – if he wants to come back, definitely take a strong look. If he wants a raise though, maybe pass if you think you can get a righty. He was great this year, but he’s getting pretty old and could fall off at any time.
2. Pavano – He’ll be expensive, and can you count on him again? I don’t know. THis all depends on market. I’d probably offer arbitration again, and if he takes it, ok. But to be honest, I don’t know what the free agent market for pitching will look like.
3. Hudson – He’s pretty irreplaceable on the team, but he continues to get older, so bringing him back isn’t a total slam dunk. He got a lot less than he wanted last year, so I gotta’ think he’ll be looking for a bigger deal again.
4. Crain/Rauch – I’d definitely try to bring one back at a reasonable price, but you probably can’t afford both. I’d probably prefer Rauch, out of the two.
5. Guerrier – I like him, but there are almost certainly better places to spend our money.
Let go of Punto, he serves no purpose to the Twins, you’ve got plenty of wiffle batting infielders around. I’m sure there are other teams that could better use his services, which have some value.
Really, at the end of the day, I hope the Twins can somehow have another off-season as great as the last one. It’ll be a very tough task, there are lots of holes to fill. I’d rather have them fill the holes at second and in the pitching staff before they start looking at spending substantial monies on bench bats and that sort of thing. Those thing might make a difference on the margins, and we might think they REALLY REALLY need one, but at the end of the day, a good second baseman is a lot more important than having somebody to pinch hit for Kubel.
6.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Everyone but Crain
I just can’t handle any more Crainwrecks.
Proud contributor to Daily Norseman and SB Nation Minnesota
by Eric J. Thompson on Oct 10, 2010 7:44 PM EDT reply actions
target field will be interesting next year
it was such a big unknown this year and i don’t think it played the way that people were thinking. we had more power in the lineup then we’ve had in years but we couldn’t hit home runs at home. i think some of that is expectations and i think it might have contributed to the off years of some of the players (span, kubel, cuddyer).
i think knowing what to expect for next year will help the players improve their performances next year.
current resident: alexi casilla
by gardy's dog house on Oct 10, 2010 11:39 PM EDT reply actions
Bring back Thome
Pavano will only break your hearts and wallets.
-a friendly warning from a Yankee fan married to a Twin fan
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