Poll: Who Gets Non-Tendered?
by Jesse on Oct 12, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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PrintThe Twins have a lot of arbitration-eligible players do deal with this winter.
Considering our well-documented discussions on the need for change in the organization, and the current state of the payroll for 2011 (between $100 and $105 million if the Twins sign no free agents and sign all arbitration cases), one tactic Minnesota may make to increase payroll flexibility is to non-tender a player or two.
Below is a list of Minnesota's arbitration-eligible players, which stage they'll be at over the winter, and how much they made in 2010. Keep in mind: all these players will be getting raises.
| Player |
Arbitration Status |
'10 Salary (MM) |
| Glen Perkins |
Arb 1 |
$0.430 |
| Alexi Casilla |
Arb 1 |
$0.4375 |
| Kevin Slowey |
Arb 1 |
$0.470 |
|
Arb 2 |
$0.625 |
|
|
Arb 2 |
$1.6 |
|
| Delmon Young |
Arb 2 |
$2.6 |
| Clay Condrey |
Arb 3 |
$0.9 |
| Matt Capps |
Arb 3 |
$3.5 |
| J.J. Hardy |
Arb 3 |
$5.1 |
Apart from Condrey, who will become a free agent, which player is most likely to not be tendered a contract?
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Hopefully Perkins doesn't get tendered
and I assume that’ll be one of them who doesn’t get anything from the Twins in reality.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
I hope it's not Hardy...
I’d really like to see them try and bring him back next year.
MN Twins offseason: FIRE GARDY!!1!!1
I would be kind of mad if that was to happen
They finally find someone who can hold down that position for multiple years – you can’t let him walk away after just trading for him. I am confident in the FO in this case.
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 12, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
buy low
Hardy’s leverage for arbitration isn’t that great coming off two disappointing seasons. He’s still young though and he hit well after his wrist healed (.304/.363/.442/.805 in the 2nd half). I’d try to lock him up for 3 years $18M and might go to $24M.
I agree
I would be mad too. He’s shown, when he’s healthy, that he can be really good. And for the most part, his D was great. He had some bad throws towards the end, but that was it all year.
I’m hoping they sign him for 3 years at the cheapest they can get him. I don’t have confidence in Plouffe and I can’t think of anyone else out there that is better.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Perkins
I’m actually a Glen Perkins guy, if they plan to put him in the pen. He looked good in September out of the pen. He was touching 93-94 from the left side. His September xFIP was 3.63 with a K/9 of 8.49 and a BB/9 of 2.31. He also has had some success as a starter so they could stretch him out ala Duensing if the situation was dire.
I voted for Neshek. He’s still not right. His fastball velocity isn’t back yet. His control has been terrible. He’s the only one on the list other than Condrey I see getting non-tendered.
I also voted Neshek
for the reasons you stated (since Condrey wasn’t an option). Perk has the advantage of being a lefty, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is let go as well.
Exactly
Perkins will fill Duensing’s role next year. There is only one bullpen lefty under contract—Mijares. Flores and Fuentes will be gone, and Mahay will likely be gone as well, unless he signs in March like last year. That leaves Perkins. He’ll do long relief and occasional LOOGY duty.
One of these guys won't have a seat when the music stops
Joe Beimel (34)
Bruce Chen (34)
Randy Choate (35)
Scott Downs (35)
Pedro Feliciano (34)
Mark Hendrickson (37)
Will Ohman (32)
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41)
J.C. Romero (35)
True
But for a second lefty, Perkins will be cheaper. And he’s rotation insurance. And its not like one of the above guys won’t still be out there. Like Mahay was last year. I’m just saying if it was between Neskek and Perkins, I’d keep Perkins. I would have no problem non-tendering the both of them.
+1
Fact: The Twins have two healthy left-handed relievers with major league experience who are not free agents
Fact: Pat Neshek was far worse than Glen Perkins in 2010
Fact: Pat Neshek is set to make more through arbitration than Glen Perkins
Conclusion: If I have to choose one of the two, I would choose the righty who was less effective and will be more expensive.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
How about both?
Neither one of them appears to be above replacement level.
Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.
And Money Man Mauer why are you not hitting?
Busy counting counting your money!
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Oct 12, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Chances
I liked Perkins — once. Then I liked him again. And again. And again. A lefty who can throw pretty hard? What’s not to like?
As it turns out, a lot. The guy gets rocked at the major league level. Of the players available, Perk is the weakest. That makes him cheap — but it doesn’t make him good.
I'm not a Perkins guy, but this makes sense to me.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
He clearly doesn't have the mentality to be a winner
Who would want a guy like him?
Maybe they say no arbitration, because they mean he will get signed for 3+
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 12, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I HOPE SO
Why the FUCK would we want to non-tender our best pitcher with HUGE upside
by twinscrazy_german on Oct 13, 2010 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions
My personal thoughts:
Plen Gerkins: I don’t think he gets tendered a contract. With Liriano and Duensing in the rotation, and Mijares in the bullpen, I see this coming down to whether or not the Twins think they can get better production from a second bullpen lefty in free agency…or if somebody like Lugo, Mullins…or even Robertson…is ready for a shot. Any of those 3 would have to be added to the 40-man roster, too.
Alexi Casilla: It’s his role that’s up in the air right now, not whether he’ll be tendered or not. He’ll be here.
Kevin Slowey: He’ll be tendered as well, and is probably penciled into the 2011 rotation with Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Duensing.
Pat Neshek: He’ll be tendered. A full year after coming back, hopefully the rust is completely shaken off and he can be one of those strikeout threats that the Twins desperately need out of the bullpen.
Francisco Liriano: The only way he’s NOT tendered is if he’s signed a multi-year contract. Either way, he’ll be around.
Delmon Young: Breakout season, hopefully he can improve upon it next season. No brainer.
Matt Capps: The backup in case Joe Nathan isn’t quite ready (and he probably won’t be). Unless he’s tendered and then traded, he’ll be here.
J.J. Hardy: For all the chatter, I can’t see any way that he isn’t brought back. One of the strongest defensive shortstops in the game, and even if he isn’t the hitter he looked like he could be 2-4 years ago he’s still capable of producing. I could see the Twins signing him to a multi-year contract in order to avoid paying him the $7 million he’d get in arbitration. Say three years for $15 million, I’d do it.
Perkins and Neshek
I would non tender Perkins for sure and think pretty hard about doing it for Neshek as well.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Both Neshek and Perkins made their issues public. I’m not sure there’s any worse thing that they could have done aside from their poor performace. Neither will be back. I also don’t think Nathan will be ready. Most pitchers need an additional year past the surgery to get it back together. keeping Capps, I think, becomes important.
I can't believe Hardy is getting so many votes
I had to go with Neshek. I’d love to be wrong, but I really think he’s done.
Probably because he was only healthy enough to play 100 games
With their serious payroll concerns for 2011 I think it’s a very good bet that the Twins will not offer Hardy arb. I would not object if they gave up on Perkins but arb should not be very pricey for him so they may decide to give him another shot. Capps will be offered arb of course, same with Delmon, Slowey, Casilla, and Liriano. I hope they give Neshek an offer but it’s no guarantee with his age, struggles coming back from injury, and the doghouse position the team put him into when he complained.
Hardy won't get much in arbitration
A crappy year followed by an injury plagued year doesn’t give him very good comparable players.
If Perkins or Neshek are nontendered, it's personal.
Neither of them will be making bank in arbitration after their performance this season. Both of them are worthwhile shots in an emptying bullpen for the price. I really feel that nontendering either of them would be a management choice to allow personal feelings about their off-field conduct to hurt the team on the field. Not that that has been beyond the Twins in the past, so maybe it is more likely.
Tendering Capps a contract would also be a ludicrous, emotional decision, so I’m going to vote optimistically that he is let go.
Capps will be here
Smith said that they wouldn’t have done the trade if they didn’t have Capps for next year.
Yeah, it would be a serious PR error if they did not offer arb to Capps
No way he will be non-tendered. That said, I would bet they trade him either in the off season or the early part of the year as his new contract will be more pricey than he is worth.
Strategic disaster > PR disaster.
Would you rather have Capps or a decent 2B? That’s basically the choice.
He's our safety net
Capps stays. We got the guy with a year of contract in case Nathan doesn’t come back right away. Or if he does come back and he’s not 100%. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t come back.
And Matt (Don't Call Me Little Nicky) Tolbert
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
perkins and neshek
are the only two guy who didn’t perform and they’re so cheap that it would be stupid not to resign them if only to look to trade them away. perkins could look to be a loogy and neshek’s likely to do better another year removed from surgery.
current resident: alexi casilla
by gardy's dog house on Oct 12, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions
I had forgotten this
But the fact that he’s only a year from surgery makes me more hopeful about Pat. Liriano needed more time to get himself back into shape. Slowey had a down year but we’re hoping will be better after surgery. Hopefully the same can be said about Neshek.
I would be more hopeful about Pat if it weren't for his delivery
The reason he throws like that is he has no shoulder strength from a high-school injury. So he puts all the pressure on his elbow. Not sure if a surgically repaired elbow can hold up to the kind of force he subjects it to.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm shocked at all the votes for Hardy
He was arguably one of the three top shortstops in the league in the second half of the season (after he returned form the DL for good). They must tender him.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
LENIII even says in today’s Strib that its a possibility. I figured there wasn’t even a chance they’d non-tender him. Talk about taking a step forward and two steps back.
Yeah, LENII has his secret sources
But we’re headed for the cellar if his suggestion of a Casilla/Plouffe middle infield is implemented. What was our record when Hardy and Hudson were out? I know it was under .500.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Exactly
We’ll let Hudson walk, which is the right thing to do. Then have Casilla and Plouffe battle it out for 2B, and the other will be a bench player. Plouffe has some pop, and Casilla has speed and better defense. Hardy holds down SS. Punto is gone, and Tolbert likely is too, since he’s out of options. Bring back either Punto or Tolbert on a tiny contract.
That's not a solution
If you have three 2B you really don’t have any 2B. Kelly Johnson would be a solution.
Well the team believes that Casilla can be a starter
And Plouffe is a former first round pick that the organization appears to still be high on. A reasonable solution would be to have them battle it out. Competition = a good thing.
My point is its better to have one cheap question mark (2B) than two (SS/2B). Assuming Valencia is a better 3B than Harris/Punto were last year, then you enter 2011 with the exact same amount of question marks as 2010, only without spending $5+ million on Hudson. It isn’t realistic to keep Hardy and also sign a top tier 2B.
I like Mark Ellis
How much would he cost?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He has a $6 million dollar team option next season
And I think the A’s will pick it up. And If he’s a Type A free agent, he isn’t worth the picks.
No way we let Hardy walk
Leting Hardy walk throws away any residual value we have out of the Santana trade (and a SS with good glove / good bat in 2nd half is still good value).
Forget about Capps, THIS would be a PR disaster.
Capps will only be tendered if Nathan has a huge setback.
Hardy ended up decent, but the Twins will want to shed salary, and the (roughly) $6 million that he will get will be too steep. Glen Perkins hasn’t impressed much. To give up Delmon young would admit failure. With his improvement, he is worth keeping for one more year. I just hope he develops patience at the plate and competency in the field. If they don’t resign Thome, he could be DH more often, however Kubel is also a below average fielder and would split DH reps…
Liriano turned into the ace of the staff. He will be more expensive but he will be kept.
Perkins, Capps and Hardy will be let go.
Also hopefully Brendan Harris. Then keeping Casilla would make sense.
Neshek could be a slow healer like Liriano was. Liriano had a rough time returning from major arm surgery. Neshek could be a lights out set up guy again.
Kevin Slowey has been one of the more consistent Twins, so he will also be kept.
no way
Capps doesn’t get an offer. They need him for insurance on Nathan, and they gave up too much to get him. I’m pretty sure either Hardy or O-Dog stays. They can’t have a completely new middle infield. I’d prefer O-Dog, but I think Hardy is cheaper.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 13, 2010 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Bill Smith has said publicly that he got those two guys for more than one year
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
So it looks like...
next season 2b will be a black hole in the batting order again. :S
Not to mention Casilla was just as much on the walking wounded as O-Dog and Hardy.
I guess the FO doesn’t subscribe to the maxim of “strength down the middle.” If they did, you keep H&H, period.
by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 12, 2010 10:44 PM EDT reply actions
Casilla would be a nice #9 hitter
There’s no reason the second baseman has to bat second. DO YOU HEAR THAT GARY?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Gary is Gardy's real name
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Luke Hughes
He’s another AAA guy I’ve heard thrown into the 2B mix for next year. I don’t remember much from when he was here, but what I do remember is good stuff. Is there any reason he couldn’t be in the running for our every day second baseman?
Also, based on Casilla’s year this year, I’m not too afraid of letting him have a shot at starting. He has strong defense and he hit well, especially in the clutch situations. I would like to see what he can make of himself.
He can't field very well
And he gets hurt a lot, and he probably can’t outhit Casilla. He’s a good guy to have on the Rochester shuttle but I wouldn’t count on him to be a starter.
Casilla could be a starter at 2B but then the Twins really need to find a decent utility guy or two. They need one guy who can play defense at SS and another who can hit a little bit and cover everything but SS. Matt Tolbert is neither of those.
40-man considerations
How many guys do they have to make room for on the 40-man roster? For the borderline guys (Perkins and Neshek), I’d consider the roster space a much bigger deal than their salaries, which will be rather small.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
With all the free agents, it shouldn't be a problem
In addition to all the FAs, we have guys like Flores, Slama and Delaney on the roster. I don’t think any of them have a future with that team
In addition to Morneau and Nathan, we need to make room for all high schoolers drafted in 2006 and prior and all college kids drafted in 2007 and prior (roughly, CC players and international signings are contingent on age—19 being the cut off).
Benson, Parmelee, Bromberg, Robertson, Dinkelman, Waldrop….
Anybody else a risk for the Rule 5?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
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