Twins Free Agents and Elias status

by DJL44 on Oct 5, 2010 2:21 PM EDT

Using the reverse engineered Elias bureau ratings on mlbtraderumors.com here is the list of Twins free agents and their status for draft pick compensation.

Jason Kubel A

Jim Thome none

Orlando Hudson B (Twins can offer arbitration!)

Nick Punto none

Ron Mahay none

Nobody ranks high enough to guarantee a 1st round draft pick, there are 4 free agent starting pitchers ranked higher than Pavano for example. If I'm the GM I offer arbitration to Pavano, Guerrier, Rauch and Crain and pick up Kubel's option. That would be 5 extra high draft picks or a combination of draft picks and players worth keeping.

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Pavano's in line for a raise

which could be 10 mil. I love the guy, but that’s a lot to pay, considering his age and injury history. I think the rest seems ok though.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Oct 5, 2010 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

I'm with DJSkillz and cmathewson

I think Pavano will decline arbitration – this is almost certainly his last opportunity for a big multiyear deal, and I don’t think he’ll pass it up for even a very good 1-year deal through arbitration. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see someone give him a 3/$30M deal.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 5, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Correction to this...

the Twins CAN offer Hudson arbitration by contract. They just couldn’t offer it to him if he was Type A. If he’s really Type B, this is great news for the Twins.

We either re-sign him to a similar, reasonable 1-year contract, or someone else does and we get a top 50 or so pick in a very good draft.

by DJSkillz on Oct 5, 2010 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

Yes!

That’s the best case.

Also, I think Pavano would be worth $10 mil for one year. But he will probably want to accept one of the multiyear offers he’s likely to get. Upshot, we should get several good draft choices next year.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 5, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the correction

I agree the Twins should offer arbitration to Hudson. The downside is they get him for another year at the same price, meaning there really is no downside.

by DJL44 on Oct 5, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

But in acutality Hudson is Type A so we CAN"T

I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!

Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 6, 2010 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Based on?

I don’t believe the actual rankings have been released. Hudson is solidly in Type B territory according to the projections.

by DJL44 on Oct 6, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Projections

Whoever has worked them up has been extremely accurate.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Oct 6, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

And...

I’d offer Pavano arbitration. Possibly even a 2-year deal at around $10M/yr. If he gets a better offer (he likely will in this FA market) then we let him walk and collect the 2 top 50 picks.

Re-sign Thome. Let Nick Bitcho walk.

I’d try to re-sign both Crain and Fuentes on 2-year deals. Offering Fuentes a chance to close to start 2011, and possibly in 2012 (if Nathan’s option isn’t picked up). If we can re-sign Fuentes, I’d non-tender or trade Capps. Too much money tied up in the bullpen.

I’d offer Rauch arbitration and bank on him taking a chance to close elsewhere.

Guerrier’s really tricky, maybe take a chance that a team like the Yankees or Tigers who will likely sign 2-3 top FA’s will also sign him, meaning they’re only giving up a 3rd or 4th rd pick. If he accepts arbitration, deal him. Though I suspect the Twins won’t take the risk and will not offer him arbitration.

Ideal 2011 bullpen: Nathan, Fuentes, Crain, Mijares, Burnett, Manship, loser of the rotation battle with Gibson/Duensing/Blackburn (or a trade). With Gutierrez, Bullock, Slama, and Waldrop waiting in the wings.

by DJSkillz on Oct 5, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

A few quibbles

Pavano will get three-year offers. I would offer arbitration, but let him sign somewhere else.

Fuentes has an option for next year. I presume we buy that out and offer arbitration. Given the dearth of closers, he too would get a multiyear deal. Let him sign.

We can offer Guerrier arbitration, but I’d be surprised if he gets a lot of offers. Ditto Rauch.

Duensing will be in the rotation next year. There’s no way they make him compete for a job the way he has pitched, especially if Pavano leaves.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 5, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Fuentes has a vesting option based on 55 games finished, which he didn't do.

His contract is over.

by Luke in MN on Oct 5, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

cool

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 5, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure I'd offer Fuentes arbitration

He got $9 million this year, and I don’t know how big a pay cut they’ll be able to give him in arbitration. Unless they think that teams will be offering multiyear closer-type deals to a guy who lost his job closing this year, I don’t know that it’s worth the risk of having to pay $7 million or something like that to a lefty specialist.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have him in the bullpen next year, but I don’t know whether offering him arbitration is worth the financial cost if he accepts.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 5, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, you can't offer him arb. You could probably sign him for less outside arb though.

Either way, I’d be surprised if he’s back.

by Luke in MN on Oct 5, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think someone will give him a chance to close

and I hope it isn’t us.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Oct 5, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends...

This is probably Fuentes’ last chance for a multi-year deal, and he’ll probably want to have a chance to close. Depending on Nathan/Capps, he may not have that chance in MN.

Besides, I’d think even if he accepts that he’d be tradeable, ala Soriano this past offseason. I think I’d offer everyone arbitration (though I’d try to re-sign or extend all of Hardy, Thome, Crain, and Fuentes) with the possible exception of Guerrier. If a couple of them accept (like Rauch/Fuentes) you trade them.

by DJSkillz on Oct 5, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Easier to trade Guerrier and Rauch

They don’t figure to command more than $4M even in arbitration. Fuentes can’t take much of a paycut from his current $9M. They might not offer Rauch arb knowing his save total will increase his outlay.

Pavano will absolutely get 3 year offers and he’s certain to get more $$ on the free agent market in a 1 year deal than he would in arbitration. He’s a lock to decline.

I agree that Crain and Fuentes are the pitchers I’d like to have back.

by DJL44 on Oct 5, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions