FanPost

Yankees vs Twins, Game #1 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and the Twins using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 8:15 AM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob
 NYA MIN C.Sabathia vs F.Liriano NYA 58.16% 44.75% 49%

 

Notes:  Rather large difference between Vegas odds and what the simulator predicts will happen today.  Even AccuScore disagrees with the Vegas kool-aid drinkers on this one.  Feel free to take a stab at the five over/under questions for Game #1 as well as a guess at the final score from the table of likely final scores below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. F.Liriano strikeouts: 7.5
3. Number of HRs plus SBs combined both teams: 1.5
4. C.Sabathia total batters faced: 29.5
5. J.Mauer total bases minus A.Rodriguez total bases: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 MIN 3-2   51 NYA 7-1   101 MIN 9-7
2 MIN 2-1   52 NYA 7-5   102 NYA 10-5
3 MIN 4-3   53 NYA 7-6   103 MIN 11-3
4 NYA 2-1   54 MIN 8-2   104 MIN 11-0
5 NYA 3-2   55 MIN 8-1   105 NYA 11-2
6 MIN 1-0   56 NYA 6-0   106 NYA 9-8
7 MIN 5-4   57 NYA 8-2   107 NYA 10-0
8 NYA 4-3   58 MIN 7-5   108 NYA 10-6
9 MIN 3-1   59 NYA 8-4   109 MIN 11-4
10 NYA 4-2   60 NYA 8-3   110 NYA 11-1
11 NYA 3-1   61 MIN 8-3   111 NYA 11-3
12 MIN 4-2   62 NYA 8-1   112 MIN 10-6
13 MIN 2-0   63 NYA 7-0   113 NYA 11-5
14 MIN 4-1   64 MIN 8-0   114 NYA 11-4
15 NYA 1-0   65 MIN 9-2   115 MIN 10-9
16 MIN 3-0   66 MIN 8-4   116 NYA 12-2
17 NYA 4-1   67 MIN 8-7   117 NYA 10-7
18 NYA 5-4   68 MIN 9-1   118 NYA 11-6
19 NYA 2-0   69 MIN 9-3   119 MIN 12-1
20 NYA 5-3   70 NYA 9-2   120 MIN 12-2
21 MIN 5-2   71 NYA 8-6   121 NYA 11-0
22 MIN 5-3   72 NYA 8-5   122 NYA 12-4
23 MIN 6-5   73 MIN 8-5   123 NYA 12-1
24 MIN 4-0   74 NYA 9-1   124 NYA 12-3
25 MIN 5-1   75 NYA 8-7   125 MIN 11-5
26 NYA 5-2   76 NYA 9-4   126 MIN 12-3
27 NYA 3-0   77 NYA 9-3   127 MIN 12-0
28 NYA 5-1   78 NYA 8-0   128 MIN 13-3
29 MIN 5-0   79 MIN 9-4   129 MIN 10-7
30 MIN 6-2   80 MIN 9-0   130 MIN 12-4
31 NYA 6-3   81 NYA 9-5   131 NYA 13-2
32 MIN 6-3   82 MIN 8-6   132 MIN 11-6
33 MIN 6-1   83 MIN 10-2   133 NYA 12-5
34 NYA 6-4   84 NYA 10-2   134 NYA 10-8
35 NYA 6-2   85 MIN 10-1   135 MIN 13-1
36 NYA 6-5   86 NYA 9-6   136 MIN 13-0
37 NYA 4-0   87 MIN 10-0   137 NYA 13-3
38 MIN 6-4   88 NYA 10-4   138 NYA 13-1
39 NYA 6-1   89 MIN 9-5   139 NYA 12-0
40 MIN 7-2   90 MIN 10-3   140 MIN 12-5
41 MIN 7-6   91 MIN 11-2   141 MIN 13-4
42 MIN 6-0   92 NYA 10-1   142 NYA 10-9
43 NYA 5-0   93 NYA 9-0   143 NYA 13-4
44 MIN 7-1   94 MIN 10-4   144 MIN 10-8
45 NYA 7-3   95 MIN 9-6   145 NYA 11-7
46 NYA 7-2   96 MIN 9-8   146 NYA 11-8
47 NYA 7-4   97 NYA 9-7   147 MIN 13-2
48 MIN 7-3   98 NYA 10-3   148 NYA 14-3
49 MIN 7-4   99 MIN 11-1   149 NYA 12-6
50 MIN 7-0   100 MIN 10-5   150 NYA 14-2

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