Re-Sign Thome - Or Keep Kubel?

by Jon Marthaler on Nov 1, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in Speculation

Jason Kubel played 99 games in the outfield, in 2010 - 83 in right field and 16 in left. He also played 42 more as the designated hitter, with just ten of those coming after the All-Star break. So when the Twins picked up Kubel's option for 2011, agreeing to pay him $5.25 million for next year, it was easy to think of Kubel as a right fielder.

Assuming that Justin Morneau is healthy, though, he's not. Michael Cuddyer is the team's right fielder (and backup first baseman). Cuddyer's making over $10 million next year, so he's virtually immovable (unless the Twins were to take back an even worse contract). And so, you'd have to pencil in Kubel at the designated hitter spot in the lineup.

But then, there's Jim Thome - everybody's favorite tater-mashing DH. Thome signed a contract for less than what Brendan Harris was making last year, then led the team in home runs and nearly led the team in walks in just 340 plate appearances. Thome was a revelation; he even provided perhaps the best Target Field moment of the year. He's charming, classy, and fun to have on the team, and you'd have trouble finding a Twins fan who didn't want him back.

After a year like that, though, Thome won't come so cheap. He's a free agent, and he should have plenty of suitors promising him more money and more at-bats, even though he'll turn 41 next year and dealt with a balky back during 2010.

The Twins signed Thome in 2010 with the idea of having a big bat off the bench, plus an occasional DH. But if you want him in the Twins lineup in 2010, one of Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau, or Delmon Young has to sit. It's possible to envision a rotation of those five. What's harder to imagine is that the Twins will spend up to $10 million on two designated hitters that both hit left-handed.

With holes in the middle infield and in the bullpen, the Twins may have a difficult choice. They can install Kubel as the everyday DH, let him give Young, Cuddyer, and Morneau occasional days off and days at the DH spot, and let Thome part on the best of terms. Or they can trade Kubel, give Thome 550 at-bats, and hope that the big guy doesn't sleep wrong and miss three weeks.

There are scenarios in which the Twins could afford both, but near as I can figure, they involve either dumping JJ Hardy, or experimenting with a bullpen scenario that I like to call DisasterPen 2011. So I'll leave it to you to vote: would you rather trade Kubel, let Thome walk, or take some risks elsewhere?

Poll

What should the Twins do at DH?

Keep Kubel, bid a sad farewell to Thome

297 votes

Re-sign Thome, trade Kubel to anyone who'll have him and not send contracts back

316 votes

Keep both, panic after every sixth inning / get used to Trevor Plouffe

215 votes

828 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I can't believe Kubel doesn't have more trade value

At 28, he’s in his prime. In 2009, he was a 3 WAR player. He could get close to that next year. That has to be worth more than a “midlevel prospect”.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2010 9:21 AM EDT reply actions

Trade value

Kubel projects as a 2 WAR player according to CHONE. So he’s worth 8-9M, depending on the $/WAR rate this offseason. So he has $3-4M of surplus valus + potential picks if he’s offered arbitration and declines at the end of the year. The picks are worth up to 5M if he maintains his type A status. Since that’s not automatic I’d say he’s got another 2M of surplus value. According to Victor Wangs reseach 5-6M of surplus value is a B level hitter or 2 C level pitchers with upside.

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 1, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

2 WAR projection

I assume CHONE projections are offense-only, so that 2 WAR projection is more like 1 WAR (if that) if he has to play the field, as he would for any NL trade partner.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty sure CHONE does include defense,

but is it out yet for 2011? Also, if it projects Kubel as a DH, it wouldn’t include defense.

by Luke in MN on Nov 1, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Kubel projects as a DH

Thomes as DH 2.4 WAR. CHONE did end of August updates which can be found here. http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/august2010.htm

by Jon Kammerer on Nov 1, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

That seems about right to me

A B-level player prospect or 2 C-level pitchers, using Sickels’ scale. I’d much rather have the B-level prospect, of course, because we have C-level pitchers coming out of our ears. It would be nice to get a catcher or middle infielder who played in AAA last year. That shouldn’t be too much to ask, should it?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

He was a 3 WAR player in 2009, 0.3 WAR in 2010

Could Kubel post a very good season like he did in 2009? Yes. Could he suck up the joint like in 2010? Unfortunately, yes.

We’re now talking about four full seasons, and Kubel has posted 0.8, 0.5, 3.0 and 0.3 WAR. That’s an average of 1.2 WAR, so if he performs at his recent average there’s little to no surplus value relative to his expected salary. I would keep him for the upside, but if I were on the other end looking to bring him in, I wouldn’t be giving up a top prospect to get him.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 1, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I still think he has more value than his contract

I wouldn’t be surprised if some team wants him for his upside.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree, more value with upside

but as I noted, we’re talking about minimal expected surplus value. And yes, I bet some team will want to buy low given his upside. I would search for that team if I’m Bill Smith and see if I can get something more than a B-level prospect for him. I keep hoping we can snag Franklin Gutierrez for Kubel+, but I doubt Jack Z would go for it.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 2, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions

1.3 WAR in 2010 without defense.

Basically worth his contract as a DH, with some upside. I’d be interested in acquiring him, as a GM, if I had an open spot (which admittedly is not too many teams). He’d probably have to be packaged with something to get anyone worthwhile, but it’s worth exploring.

by timprov on Nov 2, 2010 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Great point

Raw WAR is difficult to use for Kubel because of his high negative defensive value – his WAR is very dependent on the position he plays. He’s certainly worth his contract as a DH; probably not worth it as an OF (although it wasn’t the intent for him to be a regular OF last year, either).

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 2, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

age

Thome was awesome last year — if not a god, at the very least a godsend. But he’s over 40 and has a bad back. My prediction is that Kubel will be a more productive hitter than Jim Thome next year.

by by jiminy on Nov 1, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

Which is why I don’t see Thome getting much on the open market. He won’t get a 2 year deal. He might get $1M more elsewhere but it would probably not be from an AL contender. I suppose the Angels could go after him but there really aren’t that many suitors.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

No long term contract or big money for Thome

but I think he’s going to get something in the $3-4M range, plus incentives. There are a number of AL teams who could use Thome as a DH, it’s not like there is only one or two teams looking for a great slugging DH from the left side.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 1, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

How many are contenders?

Thome wants a ring more than he wants $1M.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

New York, Tampa Bay, Texas immediately come to mind

In the case of Texas, there’s a $9M mutual option for Vlad Guerrero. Would Texas want to go cheaper with Thome?
New York may want a LH replacement for Lance Berkman if they decline his $15M option.
He could win a ring with any of those teams, Minnesota as well.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 2, 2010 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Tough decision.

Kubel’s a fan favorite, certainly one of my fav Twins. It’d be great to keep him and see better numbers next year.

But it was a lot of fun having Thome’s presence and production on the club this year, and I think he’s got at least one more strong season in him.

But considering the big-picture and lineup construction, it doesn’t make sense to keep them both. Argh.

by twinpirate326 on Nov 1, 2010 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

The thing about Kubel is he is soooooooo bad against left-handed pitching.

You can always turn him into Drew Butera at the plate with a lefty, so he’s going to tend to struggle in high-leverage situations (and high-leverage games, like the ALDS when an opponent will line up lefties to the extent possible). I need someone to tell me that he’ll NEVER start against LHP to feel comfortable with him as part of the solution.

With Thome, I think it’s just a matter of price. Hang around, see what it’s going to take. If not Thome, there will be a bargain on some big bat this offseason with all the 1st basemen in free agency.

I don’t want both of them. Give me Kubel if they’re the same price, otherwise, give me Thome if he’s even a million cheaper. Both are very limited players and need the right supplemental pieces to maximize their value.

by Luke in MN on Nov 1, 2010 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

+1

Kubel’s inability to hit left handers is a huge negative for me. Sure he can provide some value in the regular season, but in the playoffs good teams have the LOOGYs who neutralize a guy like Kubel.

It’s not like Thome is lights out against lefties though…

by Adam Peterson on Nov 1, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the problem with keeping both

It’s the main reason why we will continue to struggle against teams that feature two lefties in the playoffs. Somehow we need more balance. Keeping Hardy and helping Valencia continue to develop will help. But having both Kubel and Thome in the middle of the order kills a lot of rallies against lefties. If we could keep one and somehow get a right handed platoon bat for him, that would be ideal.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 1, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

If they don't keep Thome

Spend the $$ on a decent backup catcher so Mauer can DH a little more.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Relative Youth Must be Served

1) Kubel should stay. He will have a big year in his free-agent year. 2) The Twins find a RH hitter who can play some vs. LH pitchers, getting a Thome-like contract. 3) Mauer becomes the backup first baseman and clears DH time for Morneau, Kubel and others.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 1, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

I don't like #3

I’d rather see Mauer get his time off at DH, not in the field. I think Mauer is a decent platoon mate for Kubel at DH. He’s a career .303 / .367 / .401 v. LHP which is better than some RH bench bats and loads better than Kubel or Thome. The problem is if moving Mauer to DH opens up C to someone who hits LHP even worse than Kubel or Thome. Honestly, it isn’t that hard to find a right handed backup catcher who hits lefties with a .750 OPS. This is what Mike Redmond brought to the team.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Available catchers

Mike Napoli would be a terrific addition if he’s available. Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas also fit. The answer could be on the roster already – Jose Morales.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

But the team's irrational love for Nick Punto has shifted to Drew Butera!

As much sense as you make, you probably can pencil Butera in for another 155 PA next year. …and the next …and the next.

by Luke in MN on Nov 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it depends on Thome's other value...

like his value in the clubhouse (whatever value you put on that) and marketing value in his chase for 600 HR’s.

I think you could make an argument that it’s worth it to keep both, assuming Thome doesn’t cost more than $4-5M.

Depth is always a good thing, and Thome will probably get fewer AB’s next year than he did this year. Ditto for Kubel. Plus I kind of like the thought of keeping Kubel for a contract drive and getting those picks next year (some team will sign him away).

If I have to choose, sure, I’m choosing Kubel; not much of a question in my mind. But I think there’s a scenario where you keep them and don’t kill your bullpen/let go of a very good JJ Hardy.

I think skimping on the rest of the bench for a year might be the way to do that. We have a solid overall lineup. I’d just skimp in the OF with a guy like Tosoni or Roberts to start (Revere/Benson in the wings), and skimp in the INF with guys like Plouffe/Tolbert/Hughes as well. Keep the starting lineup intact minus Hudson (Casilla for him).

by DJSkillz on Nov 1, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

Might still be hard for the Twins to justify

I think it depends on Thome’s other value…

like his value in the clubhouse (whatever value you put on that) and marketing value in his chase for 600 HR’s.

I think you could make an argument that it’s worth it to keep both, assuming Thome doesn’t cost more than $4-5M.

I don’t know that the Twins are going to get a lot of that kind of supplemental value in the short term – they’re already likely to sell out most games, so any attendance bump from the 600-HR chase would be negligible, and the Twins are already popular enough that I don’t know how valuable a generic publicity boost is. I think Thome sold a lot of jerseys and shirts last year, but I don’t know if it’d be nearly in the range that would be needed to pay his salary if he got much of a raise.

Kudos for mentioning off-field value – that gets missed a lot in this kind of discussion, and Thome is one of the few players for which it is legitimately relevant.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 1, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Skimping on the bench

seems like a good idea, but depth is so important when the inevitable injuries hit. Which means you’re looking at a Tosoni/Roberts and/or Plouffe/Tolbert as an every day starter when your outfielder or infielder goes down. And I’m not confident in any of those options. In 2010, injuries meant Casilla spelling Hudson/Hardy, or Kubel/Thome getting more playing time, a significant upgrade there.

by Adam Peterson on Nov 1, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Keeping Kubel

Seems to be the reasonable way here

by twinscrazy_german on Nov 1, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Does anyone see comparisons between Thome and the other old man in town?

if we dump Kubel for nothing and Thome decides to be Favre number 2 then what?

"Brian Cardinal left Purdue being the only Boilermaker to receive both the "Mr. Hustle" Award and the "Courage" Award four years in a row"

by B.C. 4 MVP on Nov 1, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

Not exactly

The Twins aren’t depending on Thome to make or break their season. If Thome spends all year on the DL they have a 4th OF to plug into that spot or they can go to the waiver wire.

by DJL44 on Nov 1, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't get your comparison at all.

Their roles are completely different with their respective teams. How “old man” Thome could decide the become “Favre number 2” is lost on me.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I've made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes!" -Bill James

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 1, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I DO get the comparison.

Two guys, both at the ends of their H.O.F.careers. The Vikes trying to get that second magical year and clearly not getting it. Could it be the same for Thome? Last year was magical. Very iffy as to whether we can get that again. I know they don’t play the same role but if we’re going to get the Farve equivalent from Thome then let him go.

by z-squad on Nov 1, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

No, the Twins aren't banking on anything

from Thome other than what they ‘expected’ to get from him last season when they acquired him. (Assuming resign)

He was signed as a bench-bat/DH support w/ pop. If they resign him, it’ll probably be incentive-laden with a similar base salary. If he performs, great. If not, no harm in having a pinch hitter to scare pitchers with in the late innings.

Kubel’s split is too extreme and we already have a too-weak OF defense. He needs to go for the best deal we can get.

by Shawn Gillogly on Nov 1, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Incentive laden, fine.

But 4 M for .230 BA, 6 HR and 22 RBI and extended periods of time on the DL then count me out.

by z-squad on Nov 1, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Nov 1, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions

thome should be considers a low-risk, high-reward player

ted williams. barry bonds, and willie mays had solid years after 40. otoh reggie jackson, frank robinson, and hank aaron did not. if he will sign for a modest salay, thome should definitely stay. this is a guy who hit a home run every 11 a/b in the twins coddle-system

and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES

by yefrem on Nov 1, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Playing GM Against Reactionism

It’s easy to look at 2010 and say that Kubel is an underperformer and Thome is a solid middle-of-the-order hitter. Fans (especially uneducated fans) love to make assumptions based on what happened the previous season. As much as that overreacting fanboy in me would love to deal Kubel and split the DH spot between Young and Thome, I just can’t justify that kind of a decision.

A good general manager flies against reactionism and finds the opportunities it creates. 2010 is over. Done. We’re talking about 2011 now. Who is likely to be more productive in 2011?

I’m thinking that it’s a coin flip on whether or not Thome is worth the contract he’ll eventually get. I’m not an odds-maker, so I’ll just call it 50/50 that he’s either injured or unporductive for a significant part of 2011.

On the other side, I consider it a coin-flip that Kubel has a bounce-back season in 2011. He probably won’t put up 2009 numbers, but .280/.345/.475 isn’t a stretch (a little better than his career line).

The way I see it, choosing Thome only pays off if Thome has a productive age 41 season and Kubel has another disappointing year in 2011. I’d give that scenario only about a 25% of playing out.

-Flip

by Flip27 on Nov 1, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

A good rationale

But I don’t agree because Kubel’s line in 09 has ‘career year’ written all over it. This season was a retreat to his classic form w/ an absurd split. He’s a platoon player w/ awful defense. You have to ask whether even if he produces at slightly-better form next season, it’s worth the split.

I say no. And I only keep Thome, btw, if he’s willing to pay for what is basically this years deal + incentives. He’s bench depth, IMHO, on a team with too many can-of-corn bench hitters already.

by Shawn Gillogly on Nov 1, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions