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Bill James projections for the Twins


Bill James is the first major prognosticator to release 2011 forecasts. I don't know much about the details of the Bill James method or how it has stacked up against other systems over the years, but as always with this sort of projection, the analysis is systematic, quantitative, and unbiased and therefore serves as a nice way to compare players in the offseason as we debate which players will figure prominently in the Twins's glorious future.

The numbers for Twins who played in 2010 are after the jump. Those without stats didn't get projected by the system.

Player wOBA AVG OBP SLG
Mauer 407 338 426 501
Morneau 393 294 379 526
Thome 384 245 384 498
Kubel 364 276 352 483
Young 358 306 345 482
Cuddyer 350 276 352 450
Span 340 294 369 388
Valencia 339 290 337 434
Hudson 332 276 351 396
Hardy 331 263 328 425
Harris 314 263 325 387
Revere 307 282 332 334
Casilla 304 268 335 333
Punto 292 242 329 309
Repko
Morales

Butera

Tolbert

ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Liriano 3.69 9.2 3.1 0.8
Slowey 4.02 7.0 1.6 1.3
Baker 4.03 7.2 2.2 1.2
Pavano 4.16 5.5 1.8 1.1
Duensing 4.30 5.6 2.8 0.9
Blackburn 4.55 4.4 2.1 1.1
Manship 5.00 6.5 2.8 0.8
Gibson
Wimmers
Swarzak
ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Nathan 1.99 10.9 2.9 0.7
Fuentes 3.31 9.4 3.9 0.9
Neshek 3.32 9.6 3.2 1.1
Crain 3.55 7.0 3.6 0.6
Capps 3.55 7.2 1.9 1.0
Rauch 3.57 7.5 2.2 0.5
Guerrier 3.65 6.0 2.9 1.1
Mijares 3.90 8.4 4.5 1.2
Burnett 4.24 7.7 4.2 0.8
Slama
Condrey
Waldrop
Gutierrez

Overall, I think it's an optimistic look at the Twins. Obviously the system isn't factoring in all that Nathan and Morneau (and Neshek) have to overcome injurywise, and that as much as anything will probably decide our fate in 2011. But the system predicts bouncebacks from Kubel, Cuddyer, Span, and Mauer; a nice sophomore effort from Valencia; and continued improvement from Delmon Young. Potential 2011 Twins Hudson, Hardy, and especially Thome are all expected to continue to be productive hitters for their respective positions, although the system doesn't see much offense coming from the cheap system guys, Casilla, Revere, and Harris.

On the pitching side, Liriano leads the pack with Baker, Slowey, and Pavano looking like solid #2-3 types. Duensing and Blackburn look like reliable back-of-the-rotation types. The bullpen would be incredible if Nathan and Neshek were actually good bets to hit those projections and if we were actually bringing all those guys back, but...alas.

Now, just for fun, let's match our bats up against those of the evil Yankees:

Player wOBA Player wOBA
Teixeira 393 Mauer 407
A-Rod 393 Morneau 393
Cano 371 Thome 384
Swisher 362 Kubel 364
Posada 357 Young 358
Granderson 355 Cuddyer 350
Gardner 349 Span 340
Jeter 344 Valencia 339
Cervelli 317 Hudson 332
Hardy 331
Harris 314
Revere 307
Casilla 304
Punto 292

Not too shabby, eh? You'd expect the Yankees to add a meaty bench bat/DH to that mix and you don't know who of Thome, Hardy, and Hudson the Twins will bring back (Yes, I'm still considering it _possible_ that Hudson will be back), but overall it looks like we should be able to hang with the big boys offensively next year. (Let's just not think about what their pitching staff will look like after they add Cliff Lee.) I don't think anyone else in the AL Central will look anything close to that good in the hitting department.

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