Updating the Twins' Payroll Situation
by Bobomojo on Dec 1, 2010 9:01 AM EST
in Speculation
Email
PrintLast night, we officially learned that Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, and Jesse Crain had each decided to forego arbitration with the Twins in order to enter free agency. While not surprising, it does add some certainty to the Twins current payroll and roster situation.
The next deadline facing the Twins is Thursday, when they must decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players under team control. This list includes J.J. Hardy, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek, Kevin Slowey, and Alexi Casilla. In addition, the team has until December 26 to sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka.
Now that we're between these two important deadlines, I thought it'd be useful to update the Twins payroll situation, to help put some perspective on the decisions the Twins must make later this week.
The chart below summarizes the Twins payroll situation using the best information we have available. The first two columns represent the players currently under contract for 2011 that I would consider to be locks for the roster if the season started today. The columns on the right side represent the arbitration-eligible players the team must offer contracts to by Thursday evening, along with estimates of what they could get in the arbitration process. I've included Nishioka in this list as well, even though his situation is unique.
|
Signed |
Salary |
Arb Eligible |
Estimate |
|
|
C |
Mauer |
$23.00 |
||
|
1B |
Morneau |
$14.00 |
||
|
2B |
Nishioka |
$3.00 |
||
|
SS |
Hardy |
$6.50 |
||
|
3B |
Valencia |
$0.50 |
||
|
LF |
Young |
$6.00 |
||
|
CF |
Span |
$1.00 |
||
|
RF |
Cuddyer |
$10.50 |
||
|
DH |
Kubel |
$5.25 |
||
|
Bench |
Butera |
$0.50 |
||
|
Bench |
Casilla |
$0.90 |
||
|
Bench |
||||
|
Bench |
||||
|
SP1 |
Liriano |
$5.00 |
||
|
SP2 |
Baker |
$5.00 |
||
|
SP3 |
Slowey |
$3.00 |
||
|
SP4 |
Duensing |
$0.50 |
||
|
SP5 |
Blackburn |
$3.00 |
||
|
CL |
Nathan |
$11.25 |
||
|
SU |
Capps |
$6.00 |
||
|
RP |
Mijares |
$0.50 |
||
|
RP |
Neshek |
$0.70 |
||
|
RP |
Perkins |
$0.80 |
||
|
RP |
||||
|
RP |
||||
|
TOTAL |
$75.00 |
$31.90 |
If the Twins tender contracts to each of the arbitration-eligible players identified above, and sign Nishioka to a $3 million a year deal, they would be sitting at a payroll somewhere in the neighborhood of $107 million. As you can see, the chart includes four empty spaces - two on the bench, two in the bullpen - which if we filled with players earning the league minimum would bring the 25-man roster payroll to roughly $109 million. If we factor in the Punto buyout and the remainder of the Harris contract, the number edges up to $111 million. Of course, these are all fuzzy numbers, as we're simply putting together our best guesses on the arbitration awards these players would receive.
As Jesse noted yesterday, Joe Christensen has speculated that the Twins arbitration offers to Pavano, Hudson, and Crain signified that they may be willing to move payroll up to the $120-$125 million range. That would mean that if the Twins do sign each of the players listed above, they would have somewhere around $10 to $15 million to spend on the free agent market. That could include going after any of the former Twins hitting the market (Thome, Pavano, Hudson, Punto, Crain, Guerrier, Rauch, Repko), or perhaps some of the "buy-low" free agents identified by Mister_S.
What's clear is that the Twins are going to have to be very smart over the next couple months as they prepare their team for 2011. The team detailed in the chart above is awfully good, but it's not without some pretty big question marks in both the starting rotation and bullpen.
53 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good run-down.
I’ll go out on a major limb and say the Twins will tender contracts to the seven guys you list above.
I could see N.T.
Neshek and Perk, but there’s little savings.
by b1 on Dec 1, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Which of your limbs
would you define as “minor?”
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Dec 1, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Hopefully this ends the speculation about Hardy.
The only reason the Twins wouldn’t have kept Hardy is if players like Povano and Hudson had accepted arbitration.
I am a bit concerned now about the Twins 2011 rotation. I trust Blackburn about as far as Wayne Hattaway can throw him.
-Flip
i had a dream
That Blackburn got traded for basically nothing, just the other team eating his salary.
I was ecstatic.
How quickly forget that 2 of the last 3 years have been great for Blackey
He was great after coming back from Rochester too. Post All-star break he had an ERA of 3.94
And Nick Punto was pertty good in 2006 as well.
Blackburn’s 2010: ERA of 5.42, HR/9 of 1.4 (for a sinker-baller), WHIP of 1.453.
But the biggest concern for me is the career K/9 rate of 4.3. That spells no upside in my mind. In fact, I’d bet money he will regress even further in 2011. Oh, and here’s what he’s guaranteed on his current contract: $3 million in 2011, $4.75 milion in 2012, and $5.5 million in 2013. The Twins also have a club option $8 million in 2014. Cot’s doesn’t have the buyout amount, but the Twins are currently on the hook for like $14 million for the Burninator.
-Flip
All I want for Christmas is my Tsu-yo-shi
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Nitpick
If you’re going to assume Nishioka gets signed (which I agree with), you should probably add $5M to his salary for this year to account for the posting fee. That seems like a big enough amount that they might consider it part of the MLB payroll, not take it out of the signing bonus pool, although I suppose they certainly could just spend it as a one-time extra cost and not deplete either payroll or signing bonuses. Whether they account for it, though, is a decent-size swing in payroll – it could be the difference in whether there’s a Thome-type acquisition.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Very good point
I have no idea if the Twins would view the posting fee as part of their payroll or not. I would guess they would view it like the money they spend signing international players, but if he’s immediately added to the major league roster, perhaps they would account for it within their 2011 payroll budget.
For luxury-tax purposes, posting fees are not considered part of "payroll"
So how they internally account for Nishioka’s posting fee should make no difference in whether it’s profitable to add Thome to the team.
Not sure that matters
Whether they have to pay luxury tax on it or not, the Twins are still spending that money, so it’s still possible that they are taking that out of the amount they allocate to payroll – if that’s the last $5M they have to spend, saying “this is not counted by the luxury tax” won’t really make a difference.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Maybe they do it that way, but it just seems like tail wagging the dog to me.
Why come up with some rigid, unchangeable % of payroll they have to spend each year, with various arbitrary rules about what’s counted as “payroll” and when, and then spend to just below that number, instead of simply asking: Is adding a certain player at a certain cost likely to be a profitable enterprise? I understand they’ve said they aim to a certain % of revenue wtih spending, but I expect it’s more a general guideline (or way to set expectations with the public) than a rigid formula.
If I ran a factory, I wouldn’t say, “I’m going to spend X % of revenue every year on capital improvements regardless of expected return.” You’d spend every dollar—and no more—that you expect to give you a positive return.
I believe common practice is to pro-rate...
…the signing fee, similar to up front bonuses, over the life of the contract. So the Twins will add $1.7mm to his salary each year of the contract he signs. So if he signs a three year contract at $3mm per, they would carry him on their books at $4.7mm per year.
Do they actually account bonuses that way?
The Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan contracts in ‘08 all had substantial up-front bonuses, and I believe it was assumed at the time that structure was because the Twins were so far under payroll that year after losing Hunter and Santana. Bobomojo’s payroll assumption above does not include prorated bonus money for any of those guys.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
looking at singing F.O.
Looking over the 36 players on the Roster, I’m happy with what we have at OF,IF,C,DH. The only spot I see open is a relief spot. I’m okay with Manship, Slama,Burnett,Mijares,Nathen and Capps. Plus a list of guys at AAA.
I'd be happy with that relief pool for now.
But I want a bat off the bench. Thome would be fine, but a versatile guy like Jorge Cantu might be great too.
I'd like some versatility as well
Thome would be great but if you hope like I do that Morneau will be back healthy this year and that both Cuddy and Kubel will rebound this year, there won’t be as much need especially at an inflated price.
I’d rather see the Twins go after a guy like Cantu like you suggest but I’d really like to see them get a guy they can play in the outfield from time to time and pinch run as well.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Jorge Cantu? No-bat outfielders? Yawn attack!
Jorge Cantu’s a guy who’s never been more than a mildly above average hitter with terrible defense. Last year he didn’t even hit.
And any skinny loser can scamper around the outfield a la Willie Bloomquist or Jason Repko. Hitting a baseball 500 feet? That’s a skill. Give me Thome and save your speed for soccer or football or some other worthless sport like that.
Except that Cantu actually is capable of hitting.
He’s not a sure bet, because he seems to bounce between above average and below average, but if you want a cheap and versatile IF option with a little pop…Cantu’s not a bad choice.
Isn't he basically like a Cuddyer who doesn't play the outfield?
Technically he can back up 2nd and 3rd, but you don’t really want to see him do it. Maybe a touch more glove and a touch less bat than Cuddles in the infield. I guess I don’t hate the idea, but I wonder if all told he’s really a more useful player than a glove-first infield guy like Tolbert. I know a Tolbert would give Gardy less heartburn.
Decent bench bat, no glove
I’d rather give Hughes a shot.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hughes isn't a bad idea.
You never know, he could shine in that role. Besides, bench bats are always available in June and July (and August) anyway if that’s what the Twins decide they need.
I think they need to sign a RH backup outfielder...
and I don’t mean Jason Repko. I think Willie Bloomquist is someone that the Twins shoudl be interested in. I know he is not a world beater and his bat is questionable, but his versitility and speed shoudl be something that interests the Twins. Too bad Dustin Martin or Brandon Roberts aren’t righties they would be a perfect fit.
I'm not sure the Twins need another outfielder,
not unless they trade somebody.
Right now they’re already forced to find plate appearances for four guys: Cuddyer, Span, Kubel and Young. The primary thing for them to worry about at this point is how they deal with speed and defense in the corners late in the game. This means that Ben Revere and Joe Benson are both good players to have in this regard, particularly as 4th outfielders at this point in their careers, because they can actually move and could provide speed off the bench. That 5th outfielder needs to be a guy who doesn’t expect a lot of at-bats.
The best place to improve the bench, at least from my view, is at the second backup infield position. If Morneau-Yoshi-Hardy-Valencia is the infield and Casilla, Butera and Revere are on the bench, then I’m going for a guy like Thome (all-hit, no-field) or a guy who can play infield and hit…even if he can’t field very well.
Revere won't be on the bench
He’ll play everyday somewhere.
Repko will be on the bench along with either Morales or Tolbert. I hope Kubel gets traded for relief pitching.
I don't know why not
As bad as he is at the plate, he’s still a plus defender, which is his role.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Why keep Repko over Roberts?
I only see downside there.
Experience
Roberts would have to beat Repko out. I wouldn’t rule that out. But it is unlikely.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Don't love our rotation
3 inconsistent pitchers with ERAs around 4.40
1 LH youngster with unproven promise
1 potential ace who’s never thrown a complete game
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Dec 1, 2010 11:58 AM EST reply actions
I think Baker and Slowey are better than their ERAs the last couple years.
I understand if that’s a hard sell, but even their down years haven’t been implosions. I think you can expect them to both be good 4.00 ERA types.
But I also think it’s ok to have a team that’s not built around its rotation. This rotation’s virtue is being solid while also being cheap, permitting spending elsewhere.
Love our rotation's potential
Duensing looks like a solid performer
Liriano is a potential ace who looks like he could start the All-Star Game
2 pitchers with upside. One has proven it before (Baker) and the other has fantastic control (Slowey). Blackburn is probably not going to be terrible.
There are 2 guys in AAA who should be ready by mid-season.
If you were looking for “buy low” candidates to find a solid starting pitcher, the Twins have 4 of them.
I’m much more concerned with the Twins bullpen. They just lost 4 relievers. Right now they have 2 setup relievers (Capps and Mijares) and a closer coming off injury. There are 200 bullpen innings left to fill and forgive me if Neshek, Slama, Perkins and Burnett doesn’t excite me. I’d love to see an upgrade on the bullpen using Kubel as the bait. If they can get one good cheap reliever for Kubel they can spend his paycheck on the other guy.
Liriano is a potential ace who looks like he could start the All-Star Game
Well, he is familiar with being out by the third inning.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
The problem with picking up relief pitcher is
they are not very good pithcher. Most are has-been starters or guys that can’t close. I hate picking up guys for mid-relief, but it seem the Twins do Okay. Just don’t pay much or trade a good prospect for someone that might not be any better then Waldrop,Slama or Delaney.
by b1 on Dec 1, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Tejada and Uribe signings
Both make JJ Hardy look like an absolute steal for $6M.
The Giants are trying to spend the rest of their money for the rest of time on mediocre players.
First Huff, now Tejada. Good work, Giants.
They'll resign Renteria for a gazillion dollars as well
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I still like targeting Ty Wigginton
I think that he would be a great signing, and reasonably priced. I love his versatility. Not to mention good pop in the stick.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 1, 2010 5:28 PM EST reply actions
Not terrible
but Casilla outhit Wigginton last season.
Not Suggesting
Wiggy over Alexi. I like Alexi to start at SS, with Nishi at 2B. I like Wiggy as a super utility type, like DeRosa when he was good. 15-20 HR from a RH 2B, 3B, 1B with occasional starts at DH against lefties would be great.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 1, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
If Alexi starts at SS we'll be in trouble.
To many E’s. He’s a 2b-man.
by b1 on Dec 1, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
My biggest issue with it is he hasn't played a full season there
I’d rather have Nishi for this reason.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
personally
i’m okay with either set up. hell, they can take turns for that matter.i just don’t like 6-7 mil for Hardy. if he played for 5 mil, that would be different. maybe he’ll break out and go Tulo on us, but I’m not holding my breath. I would love to have a Tulo or Hanley, but that just isn’t happening at this juncture. I like saving the 6 mil, paying a guy like Wiggy, and addressing the bullpen issues.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 2, 2010 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
Have you seen how much guys are getting at that postition?
Relative to the market, he’s a bargain.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Absolutely
As a free agent Hardy scores 3 years $30M
interesting thought
so if all the other kids jump off a bridge……….? Just sayin’…lol.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 2, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Twinkie Town
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
