Pretend For a Moment...
by Al Damlo on Dec 10, 2010 2:30 PM EST
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PrintCh-ch-ch-changes
The American League has undergone some major changes over the last couple of weeks. From Dunn going to the White Sox, Victor going to the Tigers & Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford to the Red Sox, things are very, very different from 2010.
Today I am thinking about a what if; What if the Twins manage to win the AL Central in 2011. And, let's say they manage to get to the ALCS and play the Boston Red Sox. Let me first say that both of these hypothetical's are tremendously large tasks all things considered. But let's say it happens. Here is the lineup they could be facing. I don't know exactly whether Crawford will lead-off or if Ellsbury will... or if Ellsbury will become the player to be named later in the Gonzalez trade with San Diego. All is possible. Take a look at this possible line-up though:
1. Carl Crawford, LF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. JD Drew, RF
6. David Ortiz, DH
7. Marco Scutaro, SS
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Playoff Pitching Rotation:
1. Josh Beckett
2. John Lester
3. Clay Bucholz
4. John Lackey
Now, compare that line-up to a possible Twins line-up:
1. Span, CF
2. Nishioka, 2B
3. Mauer, C
4. Delmon, LF
5. Morneau, 1B
6. Cuddyer, RF
7. Kubel, DH
8. Valencia, 3B
9. Casilla, SS
Playoff Pitching Rotation:
1. Liriano
2. Baker
3. Duensing
4. Blackburn/Slowey
Roster Changes Before 2011 Playoffs
Some things to think of is the Red Sox will not go into 2011 with Salty handling the majority of the catching duties. Rumors about Russell Martin joining that team make perfect sense for them. Salty is out of options so I wouldn't be shocked if they released him after spring training if they feel like he is not going to be their guy. Then they would go with Martin and Varitek.
I also believe that the Red Sox will work very hard on improving their bullpen. This could include our very own Jesse Crain to be a 6/7th inning guy behind Bard/Pap.
I put Becket #1 on purpose. If the Red Sox rotation is going to be truly formidable in 2011 he would be one of the big reasons why. Lester, Buck and Lackey would make a great 2, 3, 4. And a solid, but not overly intimidating 1, 2, 3. But if Beckett is the Beckett of old then that is a great 1, 2, 3, 4.
The Twins proved last year that they are committed to a solid bullpen and will make the additions late in the year if they feel like they have to. I wouldn't be surprised if they did that again in 2011.
The Series
So now we come to the series itself. To me, it looks one-sided. The reason for this isn't just the line-up. I like the Twins line-up. A question in the Twins line-up is the health of Morneau. But that same question could be asked about Pedroia and Youkilis too. So let's assume relative health on both teams. That being said the big difference... and it is huge... is the rotation. I have consistently said that the Twins will not make a move for Greinke but in this particular match-up it is Greinke alone that could turn the tables into the Twins favor.
Greinke
Zach Greinke has #1 stuff. There is no question about that. If you don't think so go to mlb.tv and watch any archive game. He throws 94+, has great command, mixes his pitches and has great off-speed stuff. What will it take to get him? Probably Delmon... for sure Kyle Gibson & Aaron Hicks. I feel like Delmon could be our #4 hitter next year. He would give the line-up a great left-right-left combination throughout. Do you take out your #4 hitter for a #1 pitcher? I say no. Not if you also have to give up our #3 starter and our starting RF in 2012.
LF Replacement
If the Twins trade Delmon, Hicks and Gibson for Greinke who would start in LF? Kubel? Sign Thome and have him DH full-time? That's a possibility but not exactly the speed line-up Gardy is hoping for. With Hicks gone you could plug in Ben Revere and put him in the 8th or 9th spot in the line-up. Maybe Joe Benson if he is ready? Benson at least gives them a little more pop than Revere.
The Bottom Line
The current Twins roster is not good enough to beat the Red Sox in a playoff series as it is right now. Between now and the 2011 Trade Deadline they are going to have to go out and get a #1 pitcher; At least a #2. If they can do that without trading Delmon I say that they have to make the move. It isn't that I think that Delmon is that great I just think this year, as it is now, he is an essential piece to that line-up. Depending on the health of Neshek and Nathan, the Twins may have to go out and get another piece for the back-end of that bullpen as well. Of course, this is assuming they can beat the Tigers, beat the White Sox and, of course, beat the Yankees.
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What does everyone agree with you with?
Trade Delmon?
Get Greinke?
Greinke is not worth as much as the Royals are allegedly asking for?
I voted no to trading Delmon, Gibson, Hicks for Grienke
mostly I was amused because when I was in school we’d joke about taking a simplified survey and then spout your own opinion, claiming 100% of those surveyed agreed with you. When I clicked my vote, lo and behold 100% of those surveyed shared my opinion.
by Jon Kammerer on Dec 10, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
I need to learn how to write more better...
If what you took from what I wrote above was simply ‘should we trade Delmon (et.al) for Greinke’ then I need to re-write this. The purpose was to illustrate that we need a #1 or #2 without sacrificing the line-up. That may not be possible, but as it is now, I don’t see the Twins winning a championship with the pitching rotation that we have. I also don’t think a lineup without Delmon wins one either… therein the dilemma.
Liked the post, I was just responding to the poll question
In general, I don’t think it’s a reasonable goal to try and be better than the Yanks/Sox. Even with our elevated payroll we’re still 60-100M short of where the big boys play. Unless we get a steady stream of low cost talent from the minors we’ll fall out of contention. And the only thing I’m sure of is you have a 0% chance of winning the WS if you’re not in the playoffs. That said, I know that many reasonable disagree with me.
by Jon Kammerer on Dec 10, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm all about trading for Grienke
but that’s too much even for me. I doubt they are interested in Delmon Young (especially since they just signed Francouer, a lesser but not dissimilar player). If they want him, sure, I’d include him, but not with the Twins’ 2 best prospects also. Gibson+ yes. Gibson AND Hicks+ no. I’d do Gibson, Revere, and another C+ arm, which I’m sure puts me in the minority.
I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!
by Eric in Madison on Dec 10, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions
Frenchie...
I agree that it is too much but I do think Francoeur is very close to a dismissed player in MLB. Maybe not with a team like the Royals but most teams don’t think much of him anymore.
*
So, Gibson, Revere and a C+ Arm… I would do that in less than 1 second if I were the Twins.
*
How about???
Slowey, Hicks and a c+ Arm?
Probably Yes
I think I would do that. I like Slowey quite a bit, actually, but I think I would.
I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!
by Eric in Madison on Dec 10, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Gibson's...so...close
It would really kill me to give him up. It’s not implausible that he outpitches Greinke over the next two years. Dude could be a cheap-as-free rock in the rotation around which we build a half-dozen contenders, starting next year. I know no one really expects him to be Greinke-level good, but he also doesn’t have severe anxiety issues. Greinke’s never been subjected to the playoff-level intensity that we’d be expecting him to deliver in, and there’s real reason to believe he wouldn’t deal with it well.
Hicks, Revere, + change? Jeez it would hurt, but maybe it would hurt just enough that it’s about the right amount. I think we’d be handing the division to the 2013 + Royals, but it might be worth it in the short term. I’d feel gross about it, but I would probably come to terms.
(Then again, if the Yankees and Red Sox are going to be such juggernauts the next year or so, maybe we should bide our time and hang on to our prospects!)
by Luke in MN on Dec 10, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
2012
The Royals and Indians are primed to be very solid teams by then. KC’s farm system has more MLB ready players than probably any other team. 2013 and they contend… but what is the expression… a bird in the hand (Greinke) is worth 2 in the bush (minor league players)
No way he costs that much
I’m all for trading for Greinke. He can help this year and going forward. Add in the fact we have a ton of money coming off the books next year and I think their could be a real shot of signing both him and Liriano long term.
He is going to go for the moon, but that is way too much. Heck, I would argue that there is no team out there that can match two top 20 prospects, in all of baseball, if they just offered Gibson/Hicks/fillers.
What interests me is the idea of having Philly as a third team partner to take Delmon. There were talks before the winter meetings of the White Sox/Phillys working on a Carlos Q for D.Brown trade. Could we do a Delmon for D.Brown swap and then package him (add Hicks/Hend) for Greinke? Royals get two top outfield prospects and a pitching prospect, the Phils get a cost controlled RH power hitter, and we get to keep Gibson to have a rotation of Liriano/Greinke/Gibson/Baker/Slowey by the end of the year. Pretty sexy.
Very sexy
I think Greinke will cost that much… and much more down the road. I would imagine Greinke would be a 5 year/$70M guy or more. That is probably not in the Twins budget. But maybe the JJ Hardy move sets up having a guy with that salary… Idunno…
*
I do think moving Delmon makes sense, sort of. I do see him as a middle of the line-up guy and if the Twins are going to win in 2011… I mean the World Series, not just the Division… I think Delmon has to be on the squad. Defense aside, he gives that line-up a solid right-handed power guy along with Cuddy (excuse my use of the word ‘power’ here… I hope you know what I mean).
*
I do love that rotation though… very intriguing…
I see where you are getting at with Delmon
I just feel his value is so high right now and if we don’t move him to help for a Greinkie trade it would cost us Gibson. I personally would rather have Gibson going forward than Young.
Upgrade outfiled
I think the twins could get Jacob Ellsbury from Boston. Boston now has to many outfielders with Crawford. He would steal around 60 bases, ( should make Gardy happy) improve outfield defense, hit around 300 (should lead-off instead of Span), and we could move Span to right or left.
Ells...
Ellsbury would be very fun… but I have heard he will be going to San Diego as the player to be named later. Big name for such a title but nonetheless it is possible. If not, I don’t see the Red Sox moving him. He won’t have the value he deserves until he starts playing again and if he is as good as he was why would the Red Sox move him?
If Ellsbury was the player to be named later
what are they waiting for? Usually is a one of a list of minor leagues that the two teams must agree apon. If we want Ellsbury, could we trade Slowey straight up for him? Who comes out better in that deal. Myself I’d rather trade Blackburn (I think he gets paid more) plus I think Slowey has more upside.
by b1 on Dec 10, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
You're right about the PTBNL
The only reason to have a PTBNL is because they’re waiting to evaluate future performance from a list of minor leaguers or becasue the player can’t be traded yet (recent draft picks can’t be traded until they’ve been on a team for a year).
I would think Ellsbury could be had for a mid level prospect or two. His value is low coming off the injury. Slowey would be enough but they don’t need another major league starter.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I'd rather add some speed/defense in the outfield.
I think it would much cheaper and more advantageous to the team to do this. I would love to see Grienke in our rotation as much as anybody. But I don’t think we should overpay for him. I don’t see us seriously contending for a championship this. Playoff contention? Certainly. BUT I think our best shot is in ‘12, ’13 when our next wave of prospects get here specifically Gibson, Wimmers, Revere, and Benson. Oh and we’ll have more money for the FA’s then.
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
I agree to of upgrade
I think trying to make a trade with the Red Sox could really help the Twins. Trying to acquire Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie would really help the Twins in of. speed/defense and Lowrie would be a good addition to our depleted m inf. I don’t think Boston is willing to trade either but you never know. Would probably take a lot of minor league talent, but Boston may be willing to listen after trading a lot of minor league talent in the A-Gon deal. Doesn’t hurt to try and see where it goes. Might be a fit, with Boston looking to restock their farm.
Injury Concerns
It isn’t too often that Twins fans want injury prone guys… that is what Ells and Lowrie have been. The one thing about Boston is they are loaded with really solid OF prospects already in Kalish & Reddick so Hicks/Revere won’t be too desirable. Again, Ells would be nice but his value is so below his potential value that the Red Sox won’t trade him. The thing about him being included in the Padres deal would be if the Red Sox got Carl Crawford (which they did) they would include him with the prospects to San Diego. I don’t think they RS are in too desperate to trade Ells. If they are – buyer beware… I see injury trouble… otherwise why trade him. His is too dynamic to move to another team…
I'm all for trading for Grienke
But we can’t give up our number 4 hitter to do it. We’re going to have to give someone we value, yes. But we don’t have a sure #4 hitter if Young leaves.
And I still don’t buy the “you have to trade Young now” rubbish. He’s 25, peak years aren’t until 28 typically. There’s no reason not to believe he can’t progress further as a player. For the right deal, anyone’s tradeable, yes. But that’s not the right deal.
And we don’t have anything that would make the Red Sox give up Ells. Not that I can see. Why would they trade one OF for another? They don’t ‘need’ more OFs.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 12:34 AM EST reply actions
Remember right-handed hitting?
Ideally, you alternate Left to Right, all the way down the order.
Of course, trade Young, and what RH hitter do you have ‘anywhere’ in the top of the order. Let alone as an RBI producer.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Remember "bat your best power hitter cleanup"?
That one trumps LRL. Why would you drop Morneau to 5th?
Because 1
we don’t know if Morneau will BE 100%.
and 2 Why are you insistent on dumping him from the lineup completely without an RBI man to replace him?
And oh, if RBIs trump slugging percentage, and most people think it does, Young is preferred for last year.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
RBIs are completely driven by context
I’ll take the guy with the good slugging. Delmon had a lot of RBI because everyone else got on base for him.
I never said to dump Delmon Young from the lineup. I said trade him for an all-star pitcher. If he’s still around he can bat 5th.
And slugging percentage
is inflated by meaningless at-bats often. Young hit down in the order much of this past season, yet still led the team in RBIs. And his slugging percentage isn’t chopped liver anyway.
Unless the trade is straight Young for Grienke (Which it won’t be) it would be a disaster. You don’t trade from a position of weakness, and then empty your farm too.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 12, 2010 6:05 AM EST up reply actions
"meaningless at-bats"
And slugging percentage is inflated by meaningless at-bats often.
Do you really expect the rest of us to believe that teams intentionally allow their opponents to get extra-base hits when the game is out of hand? If so, then the “it’s affected by meaningless at-bats” argument applies to literally every single baseball statistic, including RBI (if they let the guy get a double, who’s to say they can prevent him from being driven in?).
Young led the team in RBI for four reasons:
1) He got more plate appearances than the team’s two best power hitters (Thome and Morneau)
2) Other comparable power hitters (Kubel and Cuddyer) had down years
3) He had lots of opportunities to drive in runners
4) He had a very good offensive season
None of those takes anything away from Delmon Young, who had his best year ever, but assuming Morneau comes back healthy, I don’t know that there’s much justification for batting Delmon ahead of him – Delmon’s season last year, as good as it was, would’ve been Morneau’s worst season since 2005.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Couldn't say it better
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
the royals
want the moon in prospects for greinke and that is what it is going to take. Why would a team that is heavy in prospects very low in major league talent want players that have been in the league for years and cost increasingly more every year. If the trade was made Young/Kubel/Cuddyer or any of the likes would not be included it does them nothing to gain them. As for prospects they want 2 very high upside starting pitchers and in our system probably only Gibson maybe Wimmers really fits that mold however Gibson is pretty much untouchable. When we have to be struggling to overpay to take the risk of Pavano as our number 2 it would be down right stupid to trade a almost if not already major league ready top of the rotation prospect, Gibson is untouchable. So ok you trade Wimmers/Hicks/B-prospect (which isnt enough) you empty the farm system of top prospects leaving us with a ace (who is somewhat questionable) and no solid backup plans or future better than average shots. Greinke would be nice but we really dont have the prospects to pay for it especially not Hicks and Gibson, Mauers contract is upon us and money is going to more often be saved then spent in other areas trading what could offer us years of great to average production for someone we would have to be ready to commit serious dollars too in the nearish future is probably not going to happen.
I agree...
except for the part about the Mauer contract. Bidding on Yoshi, making a strong effort to retain Pavano, and kicking the tires of more than a few FA’s isn’t the action of a team “saving rather than spending.” It’s just not. And the reason for that is the Mauer deal pays for itself in real terms. The Twins wouldn’t DREAM of having a 115mil payroll w/o Mauer. They wouldn’t have bid on a Japanese player w/o Mauer’s star power to put people in seats and sell merchandise.
This isn’t a small market team anymore. The Hardy trade wasn’t a small-market budget decision. (Though I hate the trade.) It was a decision based on the Manager’s preferences. But yes, the Royals are playing hard to get with Grienke because they can. They know when Lee signs someone ‘will’ panic and pay their asking price. Probably the team that loses the Lee sweepstakes.
The only chance the Twins had on Grienke was to swoop in early. It’s not going to happen now. But that’s not something I can fault, because honestly I don’t think we had the pieces unless we wanted to part w/ Young; who, at 25, would’ve fit into the Royals plans well enough to send. But honestly represents too high a price when you talk about him as ‘part’ of a trade.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 8:17 AM EST up reply actions
Greinke is not worth it
If he didn’t have the big contract on top of all the prospects, maybe. But combined, he’s not worth it. We can sign Pavano for a lot less in value than we would have to give up to get Greinke.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Greinke
Greinke is an ACE while Pavano is a 3 at best. Put Pavano on the Royals and Greinke on the Twins last year and their stats would look a whole lot different. Also, Greinke for 27 mil over the next two years vs Pavano for ~10 mil for the next three (expected contract size). Give me Greinke at the cost of any prospects except Gibson.
Please don't seriously
tell us Pavano is even in the same discussion as Grienke.
Seriously, I think we’re better off not resigning Pavano than paying him 30mil over 3 years. Or any 3 year contract for that matter.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree...
If you could get him cheap enough for 3, why not? It depends on your definition of cheap enough, right?
I would sign Pavano and his mustache, to a 3yr deal, if we could get both for 21 mil or less. Pay him something like; 10 mil for 2011, 7 mil for 2012, and 4 mil for 2013.
But, that’s only if the mustache is part of the deal.
The must....
Pavano’s 2 great years…
2004 – First year eligible for Free Agency:
18W – 8L, 3.00 ERA 1.174 WHIP
2009 – Free Agency Year
14W – 12L, 5.10 ERA, 1.375 WHIP
2010 – Another Free Agency Year
17W – 11L, 3.75 ERA 1.195 WHIP
2008 He was also a free agent but was hurt the entire year
*
Stats in Non-Free Agency Years:
44W – 56 L, 4.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
The majority of these stats (19 of 155 games) are national league games too. He had a great year in 2010 there is no doubt about that but the timing of this year are just a little too convienent for me. I see him being painfully mediocre wherever he signs.
2009 He was a free agent
5+ ERA
isn’t a great year. He had great run support. 09 is proof of why wins are overrated.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 13, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
So I take it you don't think its worth offering him a three year at any price...
I agree he won’t do what he did last year every year. But, the twins are a big(ish) market team know and if the don’t throw good money at question marks what’s the advantage to being a Big market team?
The advantage that Boston, NYY, NYM and LAA have over the rest of baseball is this; they make a bad bet, then they eat it.
If we want a rotation next year, a Greinke or a Lee would be great – they are pipe dreams. Liriano, Gibson, Pavano, Baker, Slowey/Duensing/Blackburn, does not sound bad. We could trade one of the 5th stater type guys for some depth somewhere else if needed.
They aren't "big market"
They’re “mid-market.” And they still have to operate on a budget. There’s nothing in Pavano’s #s to indicate 3 years is a worthwhile investment. And nothing he’s done merits 10mil for 1 year, let alone 3.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 13, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I did say Big(ish)
Big(ish) vs “mid-market” = potato vs patato.
Well...
He’s probably worth $10M for a year on the open market – average starters get somewhere around that (see Gil Meche and Carlos Silva, although the market’s come down a tad since then). I would agree with you, though, that he’s not worth that to the Twins, which is more important to us.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I wouldn't
I loved super pavario this summer but I don’t see a reason to lock him away for 3 years. Injury history and inconsistancy are tough pills to swallow when combined with a guaranteed contract – yikes!
21 mil? You're serious?
Not a chance.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 13, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I was serious.
Someone is going to offer him 20mil or 3yrs or both.
That’s his market value. Esp. now that Lee isn’t available.
Of course that his market value to someone else. Now that I think about it. Because, we get picks if he signs with someone else.
Okay you’ve talked me down.
Here’s some readjusted numbers; 13 mil for 3yrs; 1st year =7mil, 2nd =3.25mil, 3rd=2.75mil. Still to much?
But, someone else is going to sign him for more then that price...
So long, Carl. So long Pavstache.
and hope he signs with someone like the pirates?
i doubt he wants to go to a crappy team for 3 years. he’s going to be 35
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
As badly as I want Zack Greinke, I have an aversion to trading Young
I really enjoyed watching his breakout year and I think he’s set to be a huge contributor for quite some time (his “signing Jason Repko is a necessity”-level defense very much aside). I understand that he would likely emerge as a deal-breaker as far as this kind of trade is concerned, but I would really, really prefer to just package one of our starters with some prospects. Slowey, Hicks, and Benson, for example, sounds just fine by me.
When I was a kid, I would cover a blue futon with a white blanket, prop it up with a fan set on high, and pretend it was the Metrodome. That should tell you a lot.
by MarshalltheIrish on Dec 14, 2010 3:03 AM EST reply actions
it's hard to know....
what it would take to get someone… especially Greinke. He has so many teams asking for him now I wouldn’t be suprised if it was similar to a Cliff Lee deal.
Here is what the Mariners traded to get Cliff Lee last year
*RHP Phillippe Aumont (from Seattle) – He is ranked as the 33rd overall MLB prospect (Slated to be in 2011 rotation)
*OF Tyson Gillies (from Seattle) – He was charged with cocaine possesion in August
*RHP Juan Ramirez (from Seattle) – #5 ranked Mariners prospect…
This is a little different because Lee was a rental player… gives some prespective of what is realistic for the Royals to ask for.
I suspect the Royals want prospects as well.
It would seriously mean emptying the farm. Their goal is (supposedly) to compete in 2014. So from that perspective, even Young doesn’t really help them, because he’s not in team control then.
I honestly expect the Royals to look at what it will cost to keep all those prospects and start selling in 14. That’s their mentality.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 15, 2010 4:33 AM EST up reply actions
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