The first 19 picks, as well as pick number 23, are completely off the board. This means the best the Twins could hope for would be picks 20 through 22 (Colorado, Toronto, St. Louis), picks 24 through 29 (Boston, San Diego, Texas, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco) or picks 31 through 33 (Yankees, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia). Pick 30 already belongs to Minnesota.
If any of the following teams sign Pavano, the best the Twins can hope for is a second-round pick (although this could be bumped if that team would also sign a Type-A free agent ranked higher than Pavano):
- Pittsburgh, Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington (already a 3rd-rounder is the best we could hope for), Cleveland, both Chicago clubs, San Diego, Houston, Milwakuee, the Mets, Florida, both LA teams and Oakland.
After the jump we'll take a brief look at which teams, whose first rounders aren't protected, to see who's most likely to sign our mustachioed maestro.
Colorado: With the return of Jorge De Le Rosa it's less likely that the Twins will be able to snag the best first rounder they possiby could.
Toronto: There's a lot of depth in Canada, eh. Even after dealing Shaun Marcum.
St. Louis: The Cardinals could be in play. The addition of Pavano would give them a rotation that includes Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Pavano. That's pretty damned good. Not awesome, but it's very good.
Boston: The Red Sox don't make a lot of sense, as they have a lot of pretty good options already.
Texas: They have a number of internal options, although we know they're in on Cliff Lee. Failing to sign him, it seems they'd pursue trade targets like Zack Greinke. But if they don't get Lee, they might be content to just spend dollars on a guy like Pavano instead of dollars and prospects on a Greinke-type.
Atlanta: I'm not sure there's a place for Pavano in pitching-rich Bravesville.
San Francisco: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito and Bumgarner. Nope.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are pretty rich in the pitching department already, and even with so many guys coming off their books I'm not sure they'd have enough cashflow to bring in Pavano at the price he's looking for.
Philadelphia: Unless one of baseballs best (and most expensive) rotations wants to get even more expensive by paying Pavano to be their #5 ( behind Halladay, Oswalt, Blanton and Hamels), the Phillies won't be signing him.