Upgrade In The Outfield
by Tuba on Dec 7, 2010 2:38 PM EST
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After some Hot Stove conversation with a co-worker who is a Red Sox fan I think the Twins have an outfield upgrade that can be addressed by trading Delmon Young to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury. Because Jayson Werth was a right handed slugger targeted by the Red Sox and is now off the market, the Red Sox might have what they need by trading for Delmon Young.
If the Twins shifted Span to LF and had Ellsbury play CF they would upgrade the defense for the outfield and up-grade the speed on the bases. The down side for Minnesota is another left handed bat with much less power. The plus for the Red Sox is Delmon's is a right handed power hitter, the minuses are a down grade defensively in LF, although the Sox had Manny Ramierz defending left field for many years and that didn't seem to bother them too much then.
Delmon's stock is high, maybe a high as it ever will be, and Ellsbury was in the dog house with the Red Sox for most of last year because of injury. So a trade here may might be viable. I'm not much with numbers and stats so let me know if you think this would be a good, even-up trade.
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Why is everybody so focused on moving Denard Span out of center? He’s a much better centerfielder than Ellsbury, as evidenced with UZR.
In 2009, Ellsbury posted a -9.7 UZR, and in 2010, Span posted a 6.3.
We all saw a lot of catchable balls drop last year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The new BP stat this year had him as the best center fielder in baseball.
You have to take it all with a grain of salt—I speculate that Span got bonus points in the metric for playing between two slow corner outfielders—but for what you can get from the stats, he’s at least decent and maybe quite good.
I find it really difficult to tell on TV how much ground a center fielder is covering. Span’s fast, although he doesn’t fly like Carlos Gomez did…but then, it’s not just about speed; jumps, positioning, etc.
I think the point is to upgrade a corner OF by getting another CF
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
we should just have 3 CFers in the OF
trade Hardy back to Milwaukee for Gomez
trade anyone for Michael Bourne
and keep Span…
whoops I forgot the sarcasm font… I would love to upgrade the OF D if possible but I’m not sure that trading Young is what should be done…
I am not questioning Span's defense at CF
I’m just saying defensively:
Span + Ellsbury > Span + Young
Ellsbury could also play LF and have Span stay at CF. I went to fangraphs and saw the -9 UZR stat and that suprised me, but I also read an article there by Dave Cameron talking about Ellsbury’s defense explaining that one year is a small sample size for UZR. I have not seen Ellsbury play very much, so he may be bad defensively, but I have seen Delmon and it wasn’t good last year.
Yeah, I get that.
I just can’t get too excited about trading out Delmon’s bat for someone else’s glove. Especially Ellsbury and especially when we have so few righty bats.
I was thinking more like Kubel for a glove
Move Delmon or Cuddy to DH and put the glove in right or left.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
How is Ellsbury an upgrade?
I’m sick of people saying trade Delmon for a defensive upgrade only to replace him with an obvious offensive downgrade. Those moves are at best lateral. I’d rather see if another year under Delmon’s belt makes him a bit better in the field and at the plate (which is quite possible).
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 7, 2010 2:57 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Agreed
not to mention trading Young is trading from a position of organizational weakness.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 7, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
That's not an even trade at this point
We would need to get something else back as well as Ellsbury. Putting Ellsbury in left would help ease Span’s defensive responsibilities, but this would definitely be selling low on Young.
Maybe the year for the big(er) deal
I could see a Ellsbury (1st year of arb), Lowrie(Roxs like scutaro better, arbs starts after 2011) and Dice-K (Injury history with ability to be a #2 starter, with 2 years at 10.3) and get some money (6-10 million). We give up Delmon, Moralas/Butera and maybe a Waldrop or other close to ready reliever to help fill the Adrian Gonz trade holes.
Value
We meet three of four twins needs. We get better OF defense, a decent and cheap utlity infielder, and potential fringe ace partner with Lirianio. We give up a RH bat, which is not ideal. Really iw ould rather send Kubel, but they wouldn’t want his LH bat or his defense. We lose a catcher, which is an area of strength for us right now and we lose a reliever which again not ideal but again an area where we have a lot of in house guys in the pipline.
People complain about finding a power RH. I point to Derek Lee/Matt Daiz etc.
You get a CF defense that doesn't necessarily rate better than what we have
you get a utility infielder—like we don’t have a half-dozen of those already—Gardy acquires these in his sleep.
you get a pitcher whose stats are inconsistent at best. And ‘at’ his best, he’s an anti-Twins pitcher. He works slow, walks a lot, and will mess up his own defense’s rhythm as much as he throws off the opposition.
and you give up a RH bat, which we can’t afford to lose—our BEST rh bat, at that. And you give up a high rated reliever who will probably do as well as anyone in the market for middle innings this year if he’s used right.
Again, where’s the value in this trade? We don’t need Ellsbury, and we give up more in offense than you gain in defense.
Kubel is the part that has to move, but you’re right, his contract makes him difficult to move.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 7, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury is a bust
injury prone, no power, not much of an arm. We’ve already got an Ellsbury named Ben Revere.
Why did I even read this thread? It really is Hot Stove season….
BTW, anyone who proposes trading Delmon has to explain in detail where and how the Twins will get RH offense in the near term. Cuddyer is waning, Hardy at most has one more year. Without showing us a route to a RH bat, you’re just wasting everyone’s time.
We already have Ellsbury
his name is Revere. I think Gardy might have him in left by Aug. Span and Revere in front of M&M sounds like alot of runs.
I'm not interested in Ellsbury
But there are right-handed hitting outfielders with good gloves out there.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Austin Kearns
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 8, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
That's okay but what would we do with
Repko. Everyone seemed to love his D-fence and he can play CF. I don’t know if Kearns could do that? Or, do you not have a CF back-up on the 25man and bring up Revere if needed?
by b1 on Dec 8, 2010 7:46 AM EST up reply actions
WAR
When Ellsbury was healthy in 09 and 08 he put up WARs of 3.6 and 2.9, respectively. In ‘08 when Span played primarily a corner outfield position he put up a WAR of 2.9. which is greater than Delmon’s 2.6 this year.
If Ellsbury can return to preinjury form and put up a WAR in the 3.0 range again, I’d make this trade in a heartbeat based on surplus value alone. His value in center is likely greater than Span’s, and Span’s value at a corner position defensively outweighs Delmon at the plate.
Why? Young is 25
If anything, his WAR is going to increase.
Ellsbury is injury prone. You’re betting AGAINST the improvement of a player likely to improve, FOR a player who is less likely to improve, with your ‘potential’ increase in WAR being… .3? huh? You’re cutting things way too fine on that one.
Shift Young to RF, and I think his WAR goes up by more than that.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 7, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
So is Ellsbury???
You’re logic seems a bit flawed. Ellsbury is also 25 and why would Delmon be more likely to improve?
He’s not injury prone either. Yes he missed a ton of time this year but if you look at his career he is not injury prone. one injured year does not equal injury prone. He played 153 and 145 in 08 and 09. In 07 he played 137 and that number is only that low because he started the year in the minors which start later than ML. In 06 he played in 111 games and for the same reason it would have been more but he was in the minors which have a shorter season.
However, I don’t think trading Young for him is the right call. I do think there’s a possible match with them though. It would require trading Cuddyer + money and prospects for him though. It would give them a short term answer for their RH power bat and then we’d have to give them good enough prospects to make it worth their while. Nothing major but not trash either.
I actually think Ellsbury might be a very good buy low option but giving up Delmon for him is too much. Those stolen bases would look great in the 2 hole.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
ellsbury
would be great if we could trade cuddyer not young for ellsbury, he is span plus about 30 steals and doesnt get picked off every ten attempts. then we could have young in right span in center and ellsbury in left or vice versa but keep delmon in right. sign a right handed bat with power than can play outfield such as kearns thames andruw jones or a stretch glaus or cantu for the infield
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