2011 MLB Draft Order for the Supplemental Round

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2010 4:01 PM EST

There's a lot yet to happen in FA, but I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at supplemental draft order as of right now, with the assumption that all remaining Type A/Type B Free Agents---those ranked as such who were offered arbitration and declined---sign with other teams. This won't be the case, as a few will always return to their 2010 club. Notables in this category likely include Paul Konerko, Grant Balfour, and Scott Downs among the Type A's, as well as others. Anyway, the following is a look at where the supplemental draft order looks to be heading, as of today. Also, this is an analysis of the supplemental round only, not the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds of the MLB draft, which is obviously yet to be determined based on where the remaining Type A Free Agents sign:

Let's begin. Here is the list of players that were offered Type A arbitration and declined:
Grant Balfour
Adrian Beltre
Carl Crawford
Jorge de la Rosa; Signed back with the Rockies.
Scott Downs
Adam Dunn; Signed with the White Sox.
Paul Konerko
Cliff Lee
Victor Martinez; Signed with the Tigers.
Carl Pavano
Rafael Soriano
Jayson Werth; Signed with the Nationals.

Order is determined by reverse-order in the standings, with each team that loses a player getting a pick, then restarting the order for teams losing multiple Type A Free Agents. As of today we're left with the following for Type A compensation order:

#34-Washington (Adam Dunn)
#35-Toronto (Scott Downs)
#36-Chicago White Sox (Paul Konerko)
#37-Boston (Victor Martinez)
#38-Texas (Cliff Lee)
#39-Minnesota (Carl Pavano)
#40-Tampa Bay (Rafael Soriano)
#41-Philadelphia (Jayson Werth)
#42-Boston (Adrian Beltre)
#43-Tampa Bay (Carl Crawford)
#44-Tampa Bay (Grant Balfour)

For Type B Free Agents we have the following that have been offered, and declined, arbitration:
Joaquin Benoit; Tampa Bay; signed with the Tigers.
John Buck; Toronto; signed with the Marlins.
Randy Choate; Tampa Bay
Kevin Correia; San Diego; signed with the Pirates.
Jesse Crain; Minnesota
Octavio Dotel; Colorado
Jon Garland; San Diego; signed with the Dodgers.
Kevin Gregg; Toronto
Brad Hawpe; Tampa Bay
Trevor Hoffman; Milwaukee
Orlando Hudson; Minnesota
Adam Laroche; Arizona
Felipe Lopez; Boston
Miguel Olivo; Blue Jays
JJ Putz; Chicago White Sox; signed with the Diamondbacks.
Chad Qualls; Tampa Bay
Yorvit Torrealba; San Diego; signed with the Rangers.
Juan Uribe; San Francisco; signed with the Dodgers.
Javier Vazquez; New York Yankees; signed with Marlins

Leaving us with the following, if the above holds, for Type B compensation order:
#45-Arizona (Adam Laroche)
#46-Milwaukee (Trevor Hoffman)
#47-Colorado (Octavio Dotel)
#48-Toronto (John Buck)
#49-Chicago White Sox (JJ Putz)
#50-Boston (Felipe Lopez)
#51-San Diego (Jon Garland)
#52-San Francisco (Juan Uribe)
#53-Minnesota (Orlando Hudson)
#54-New York Yankees (Javier Vazquez)
#55-Tampa Bay (Brad Hawpe)
#56-Toronto (Kevin Gregg)
#57-San Diego (Yorvit Torrealba)
#58-Minnesota (Jesse Crain)
#59-Tampa Bay (Joaquin Benoit)
#60-Toronto (Miguel Olivo)
#61-San Diego (Kevin Correia)
#62-Tampa Bay (Randy Choate)
#63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls) #63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls)
There are 33 picks in the 1st round of the 2011 MLB Rule IV Draft. One for each of the teams, plus 3 compensation picks from un-signed first round draft picks from 2010. So we're left with, assuming the above scenarios, the following draft order for the supplemental round of the 2011 MLB Draft:

#34-Washington (Adam Dunn)
#35-Toronto (Scott Downs)
#36-Chicago White Sox (Paul Konerko)
#37-Boston (Victor Martinez)
#38-Texas (Cliff Lee)
#39-Minnesota (Carl Pavano)
#40-Tampa Bay (Rafael Soriano)
#41-Philadelphia (Jayson Werth)
#42-Boston (Adrian Beltre)
#43-Tampa Bay (Carl Crawford)
#44-Tampa Bay (Grant Balfour)
#45-Arizona (Adam Laroche)
#46-Milwaukee (Trevor Hoffman)
#47-Colorado (Octavio Dotel)
#48-Toronto (John Buck)
#49-Chicago White Sox (JJ Putz)
#50-Boston (Felipe Lopez)
#51-San Diego (Jon Garland)
#52-San Francisco (Juan Uribe)
#53-Minnesota (Orlando Hudson)
#54-New York Yankees (Javier Vazquez)
#55-Tampa Bay (Brad Hawpe)
#56-Toronto (Kevin Gregg)
#57-San Diego (Yorvit Torrealba)
#58-Minnesota (Jesse Crain)
#59-Tampa Bay (Joaquin Benoit)
#60-Toronto (Miguel Olivo)
#61-San Diego (Kevin Correia)
#62-Tampa Bay (Randy Choate)
#63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls)

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Comments

I screwed up...

and forgot the rule about every compensated team getting the chance to take 1 supplemental pick before any compensated team (in each type) getting 2. So I reposted the order as it would be, along with ZERO assumptions this time on where FA’s would go.

Basically, as any of these FA’s re-sign with their own teams, some of these compensation picks will be taken away.

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2010 5:20 PM EST reply actions

Right now, based on my predictions...

I’d guess the Twins’ supplemental picks (in addition to whatever compensation pick we end up getting after Pavano signs elsewhere) will be the following: