Minnesota Twins Winter Meetings Open Thread, Day 3
by Jesse on Dec 8, 2010 3:10 PM EST
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Print3:55 p.m. -
After a crazy hour or so of J.J. Hardy-related rumors, things have slowed down considerably. The biggest news this afternoon? Boof Bonser has signed a minor-league deal with the Mets.
If you're looking for updates on the Hardy situation, we've started a separate thread above.
1:10 p.m. -
According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, the Twins and Orioles are in "serious negotiations" over J.J. Hardy. According to Connolly, the discussed deal involves two minor league pitchers, including Brett Jacobson. Jacobson is a 24 year old reliever, who was pitching in high-A in 2010
More on Jacobson: he was drafted by the Tigers, and then traded to the Orioles in August 2009 in exchange for Aubrey Huff. He's tall - 6'6" - and throws in the mid to upper 90s. He's posted good K/9 rates (albeit as a 23-24 year old in high-A) but walked 3 batters per nine last year. In 71 innings, he posted a 2.79 ERA and a 3.86 FIP.
UPDATE: Kelsie Smith of the Pioneer Press confirms the Twins and Orioles are discussing Hardy, but adds that the players being sent to Minnesota "have not been defined."
10:40 am -
As noted in the comments, the White Sox have signed Paul Konerko to three-year, $37.5 million deal. It seems like the signing has pushed them near their limit on payroll - Kenny Williams told Jayson Stark "we're at the point where we need to get creative because we're about tapped out." Williams also told Stark that he'd consider trading a starting pitcher (like Danks or Floyd), but isn't looking to "subtract" from the Major League roster "if he can help it."
9:40 am -
Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Twins are "stepping up" their pursuit of Carl Pavano. LEN III says Pavano was impressed when yesterday's meeting with the Twins involved Bill Smith, Rob Antony and Terry Ryan.
That's old-school baseball tactics right there. If you want a guy, you let him know it.
Now, as long as the deal isn't too cumbersome...
5:08 am -
Is it just me, or has this been an exceptionally slow Winter Meetings for the Twins this year? I know last year was special, what with the massive payroll bump, the Joe Mauer extension on everyone's mind and signing Carl Pavano during the meetings, but at least we've had an interesting morsel or two...a name or two dropped of interest. So far this year those names have been Koji Uehara and Rich Harden. Those aren't interesting.
Anyway, here's your breakfast catch-up.
- It sounds like the Nationals are out of the bidding for Pavano. Guess what, Twins fans: Minnesota just became the odds-on winner for a Pavstache in 2011. Washington isn't comfortable giving him more than a one-year contract. To be fair, had they signed him the Twins would have only returned their third rounder in addition to the sandwich pick. Be sure to check out my redux on how the Twins could snag a first-rounder for Pavano, but right now the best fits appear to be (and this is all just speculation and probably a bit of a stretch): the Cardinals, the Padres, the Rangers. None of them really need a guy like Pavano, but that's about the size of it. I'd place chances of Pavano's return to Minnesota at greater than 67% even though he met with two other teams besides the Twins and Nats yesterday: he was a leader in the clubhouse, and the Twins have been keeping tabs on him pretty thoroughly.
- La Velle's late update from yesterday covers, apart from Pavano, Tsuyoshi Nishioka as well as 1) the Twins staying in touch with Jim Thome, whose other destinations may include Oakland, Texas and Baltimore, and 2) the Twins keeping in touch with Zack Greinke. I'll make a bold prediction right now: Greinke will not be a member of the Twins next year.
- Looks like the outfield won't be changing in 2011. Not much of a shock, but we can stop speculating about upgrading defense in the corners now.
6:02 am -
Just a quick update to Jesse's post: Matt Diaz, the outfielder who was recently non-tendered by the Braves, signed a two-year deal with the Pirates early this morning. Diaz is a lefty-mashing right-handed hitter, and would have been a very good bench bat (or Kubel platoon partner) for the Twins. Terms of his deal haven't been released, but I'm guessing his asking price was well above what the Twins were able to offer.
Stick around, Beau will be provoding your updates today.
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So where is your writeup for the phonecall with JJ Hardy, Jesse?
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 8, 2010 6:47 AM EST reply actions
Well I didn't think it was you
Moreso trying to be funny.
In all seriousness it would be great to see some personal background stories of some of our (maybe lesser known) players. What kind of things they impact outside of Target Field etc
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 8, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
Shout out alert!
Though I’m pretty sure I’m missing something in this conversation…
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
I'd be okay with 2yr-8mil for Pastachio
I guess we’ll wiat to see if anyone tops that. Big Jim will be a late singing again, offers will dwindle down and 2-3mil should get him back to the Twins Cities. I’m surprised we haven’t singed 5 more AAAAAAA guys. But, I’m also glad, I like our young guys even if they don’t win lots of games. Blame the pitching for that, alot of guys struggled last year, except for Gibson.
Pavano may solve one bullpen problem...
…Should the Twins sign Pavano, which appears more likely every day, they may go back to what they had last year out of spring training. Move Brian Duensing back to the bullpen as a seventh inning type of guy. He did some of that last year and could be very good, plus, is then available to stretch out if/when they need a starter for the last half of the season.
They also haven’t mentioned Jeff Manship, but he would be a great candidate as the long reliever. With Duensing, Manship, Mijares, Capps and Nathan…that is five. Toss in at least one of Neshek/Perkins and what the Twins really need is a hard throwing eighth inning guy.
Bullpen personnel still makes me nervous.
Especially with Nathan, because we don’t really know how far back he’s going to be—but we know he won’t be 100%. Even if the Twins sign Pavano, the bullpen is Capps, Mijares, Duensing and then four question marks. Like you said, one arm would be good. But I wouldn’t mind two.
The question is who
do you pick-up and what do you give-up that doesn’t leave another hole to fill. Thats the problem with trading Hardy, unless we bank on the new signee to play SS with 0 big league at bats. I’d say its better to have a weak bullpen then a weak SS.
by b1 on Dec 8, 2010 8:01 AM EST up reply actions
Let me rephrase:
I agree inasmuch as it’s easier to field an average bullpen than it is to field an above average shortstop. Meaning, I’d rather have the above average SS.
Bullpen
I wouldn’t be too worried about the pen considering how saturated the market is and how it’s pretty easy to pick up useful relievers through the spring and even into the season.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Worried isn't the right word. It's a concern.
Anytime you have an area of weakness, it needs to be a concern. Until the Twins address that concern, or until the guys we can currently pencil in answer those question marks, it’s not an area I’m happy with.
Here's where I trust the Twins to be smart.
Hang back, wait for the bargains. Retail price is for suckers (Nationals) and those with so much money they don’t care (Yankees). For bullpen help, wait until a few guys are twisting in the wind a little for jobs. Same with Pavano. Make it clear the market isn’t 3/$30 before you go after him.
Yes
There are always bargains. The key is signing the right bargain relievers.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It has been pretty slow and boring, all around. Not just with the Twins.
The only thing that has me going is the Hardy thing.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Anyone else worried that signing Pavano makes a Hardy trade much more likely?
I’d love to see Pavs back, but not if it means we open up a new gap in the infield.
This was a triumph
I'm making a note here - huge success
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 8, 2010 10:11 AM EST reply actions
maybe a pavano signing would make dealing one of slow-bake-burn more likely
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
maybe, but those three won't make as much as Hardy
Baker is at $5m, Blackburn $3m, Slowey less than that. I was thinking it would be a cost-cutting move .
This was a triumph
I'm making a note here - huge success
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 8, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Diaz deal
2yr/4.25mil total. I think the twins could have found that much.
by Win-cicum on Dec 8, 2010 10:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Well, the Pirates got the first crack at him
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I just don't think that our opinions and the FO's match
It seems like they don’t care if they get a RH bat, at least that’s the way it seems now. To me, it looks like they for sure want Thome. They want the outfield to stay the same.
They think the BP needs help (it does) and they might re-sign Pavano. At the moment, that’s all they are showing. That may be all they want to do. They might consider Repko that RH bat they need…while we still think they need something else. And they seem to think way less of Hardy than most of us do.
Either they aren’t showing their full hand, which is normal for them and I’m fine with, or they don’t see what we do. Though that doesn’t mean that we know all and the FO should always go by the fans, though I think they should for Hardy!
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I'd prefer a right-handed Thome, but
the right-handed options to replace Thome at the likely prices seem like much worse options to me. And yeah, Repko’s not exciting, but he’s useful as a poor man’s right hander.
Heh
A poor man’s right hander that hit righties better than lefties last year. I’d guess it has something to do with his inability to hit the ball to the right of the third baseman. Keeping Repko has nothing to do with his bat.
Yeah, I kind of agree
I want Thome back, but it’s so conflicting because Thome and Kubel are just too redundant for me. Kubel can play in the field, not well, but he can…so he has that over Thome. Otherwise, they’re similar players.
I was fine with Repko because we do need a guy who can play D as a backup, I just hope his bat turns out better than it was last year. I doubt it, but I hope. I also hope that he’s not the only RH hitter they are thinking of, but I feel he likely is.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
We have 2 RH DH's
I call them Delmon and Mike. That’s why Repko is a good fit for this team. Send Kubel to the bench vs tough LHP and let Young or Cuddyer DH.
by Jon Kammerer on Dec 8, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
I would like it if they actually did that, but Gardy generally doesn't do that.
I’m for it though.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Marcus Thames or Andrew Jones
Both are above average corner defenders, cheap, and available. I don’t get the Repko thing because for an extra 600k, we probably could have inked one of these guys.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 8, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, those are two guys I was thinking of as well
I just don’t know if the Twins are thinking about doing those kind of additions. Right now, I’d say no, but we don’t know everything…
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I don't want either of those guys, personally.
I’m not a Repko fan, but I’d still rather have him than those two. Jones is fat and slow, and Thames I’m just not comfortable with.
The plus side with Repko: he can play all 3 OF positions, and you don’t have to worry about finding him ABs. That’s just fine for a 5th OF.
marcus thames will be hard to get
since he plays in Japan now.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
thames
dont think hes there yet still a free agent a decent bat actuallly hit righties better last yr and can hammer a fastball. hey y not try another tigers cast off you know how well RonDL white and craig monroe worked
that's joe crede-esque production right there.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Thames.....
Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports that Marcus Thames could be a possibility for the Diamondbacks in left field.
Thames, who turns 34 in March, batted .288/.350/.491 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI over 212 at-bats with the Yankees this past season. We have heard reports that he could be Japan-bound, but he should be able to land a semi-regular role again in the major leagues. Dec. 8 – 12:58 am et
I wish they'd lose Mijares
The guy just scares me. Yeah, later last year he did OKAY, but his history still makes me shakey every time they bring him out.
You're going to have to deal with that, I'm afraid.
As is, Mijares is one of very few solid bullpen pieces the Twins have in place.
Especially with his ability to strike batters out,
and the fact that he’s left-handed. And he’s cheap. And the Twins don’t have a better LHP for the ’pen.
Lots of reasons, really.
I'm really hoping if they get Pavs it's a two year deal.
I’d be more than ok with that. If he can repeat what he’s done the past two seasons that would be great. The Twins have slowplayed this one great so far allowing him to test the market and if the overpaying nationals won’t even give him 3 years then who would? The more I think about it comparing him to Ted Lilly isn’t really fair as Lilly has had no real injury concerns throughout his career. A two year deal worth about 7-9 million per year sounds fair for the Pavstasche.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I'd definitely take that kind of deal with Pavano
I really don’t want them to go over 15-20 million for a total.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
"If you want a guy, you let him know it."
You see, this is why I thought Glenn Close was the hero of Fatal Attraction, not the villain. Glad to see I’m not the only one.
Just posted this as a fanshot, but the conversation is hotter here:
White Sox signed Konerko. Not surprising, but still makes me realllly nervous about their lineup against our pitching:
At least a chunk of it is in deferred compensation
Though didn’t they do deferred compensation for AJ and Dunn, too? They are going to be paying out a lot of money to players not on their team in a few years. Nonetheless, my guess is they regret it in 2012 when they realize how old their team is (again).
Konerko had a monster year at the plate last year
Was is a career year and will it continue? I think the year before people were starting to think he was going the other way. I’m not that worried about him. Or AJ. Dunn could do some damage in most of the AL central ballparks. But, if Konerko goes back to where he was the year before, Dunn doesn’t have such a great year either.
He's going to be 35, I think?
And he was great last year. I think adding Dunn to the lineup really helps him, too. But hopefully last year was just an aberration…
It's an aberration until proved otherwise
Year: wOBA
2010: 160
2009: 119
2008: 106
2007: 114
His previous career high was 138. Career, he’s a 122 guy. He’s the definition of an average first baseman. And he’s old. And a bad defender. The list of hitters who establish a new level of excellence in their mid 30s without serious chemical intervention is pretty damn small.
He doesn't have to do last year to justify the deal.
He needs to 2.5 WAR avg the three years and he’s only being paid 6.5 million the last year before the deferred amount so its probably a bit less.
And no I highly doubt Paul Konerko is using chemical intervention.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
Last year isn't sustainable from a WAR perspective either
In the 3 seasons prior to last year he averaged less than 2 war/season. And now he’s about to be closer to 40 than 30.
Of course not.
It was a career year. 2008 Konerko had a hand injury. I’m not implying he will blow away the deal at all. Your right he might come short. I just don’t see any massive flame out (besides critical injury of course). He benefits from one of the best medical staffs in mlb.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
I don't think he is either. All the more reason to think 2010 was a flash in the pan.
So you’re paying full price for an average first baseman. Checkmate!
And you already have another first baseman
Not a bad deal if they miss out on Dunn but they didn’t.
How would everyone feel about
Hardy being traded to a third team along with prospects and maybe Kubel or Baker or both in a deal that gets Greinke? Also, would trading Hardy and Kubel or Baker clear enough salary to get Greinke and Pavano?
42
The three of them equal 16-17 million
So yes, if they’re already thinking about retaining Pavano seriously which they are, then yes that would easily cover Greinke and a Thome resigning.
It would take the perfect storm of a 3 or maybe even 4 team deal as I doubt the Royals want two guys in the last year of their deals making good money (Hardy, Kubel). I can see them wanting Baker though.
I’d probably be willing to live with a lineup that featured Casilla/Nishioka as the MI if our pitching staff was Greinke/Liriano/Pavano/Slowey/Blackburn.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
meh
I’m not a fan of trading Hardy at all as the drop off here is pretty severe. Greinke wasn’t exactly a stud last season, lest anyone forget either, so I’m at a loss for why he’s coveted so much. Liriano was better. Don’t get me wrong, I like the idea of Zach in a twins uni, but not at a price that cripples this team NOW… I have no problem with the Twins sacrificing some farm/payroll to load up with the best possible team to compete for a ring this year, but trading Hardy for Greinke essentially means a significant weakness at a spot that won’t be filled easily (if at all) for one that can be reasonably filled from other locations.
I’d rather take a flier on someone like Erik Bedard and rely on Slowey/Baker/Blackburn/Duensing if he fails than to trade a guy like Hardy and be stuck with the likes of Casilla/Punto/Izturis manning the spot. If payroll is the main consideration, then I don’t see an easy way to get Greinke without a similar move that significantly harms us.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 8, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Thoughts on the Sox signing Dunn & Konerko
I’m going to do some more analysis on the 2011 Sox this weekend, if I find time in between spending the millions I make on Christmas presents, but for now here are my conclusions.
1. Their offense is formidable. That’s obvious, and maybe just a little scary.
2. My math could be wrong, but it looks like CHI now has something like $107 million committed to 15 players for 2011, without including raises to Quentin and Danks.
3. They might be getting old…
C, Pierzynski, 34
1B, Konerko, 35
2B, Beckham, 24
3B, Vizquel, 44
SS, Ramirez, 29
LF, Pierre, 33
CF, Rios, 30
RF, Quentin, 28
DH, Dunn, 31
Your math is off
Here is a link for easy reference. And Omar is not starting at 3rd Morel is.
link
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
Ok, so
about $104 million.
Morel’s 24. Avg age of the starting 9 just a shade under 30.
Who’s your bench right now? Omar, Teahen…
Their offense was bad last year
It’s definitely improved, but they are overpaying off of career years from two aging sluggers, both of whom could turn back into pumpkins. I do think that both will regress, and even if they do the Sox will still be a better team, but I’m not sure what it adds to them in terms of wins. Konerko is at best lateral in that I doubt he improves on his season last year, and he is more likely to regress. Dunn, even if he regresses, is a massive improvement at the DH slot, but is it enough? Manny couldn’t exactly turn that team around, as they have far more problems to deal with than just DH. Of that team listed, only Beckham looks as though you may see a significant improvement, and many more of those guys look to be on the decline. I could see them picking up a couple wins with Dunn, but that still leaves them 4 games back even if our team is unchanged, and quite honestly, I think we could pickup a few more wins just rolling the exact same team out there next season.
Lots of our guys underperformed either due to injury (Morneau) or just a bad season. 3/4s of our team could improve just by staying healthy or bouncing back. As it is, Span, Young, Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Neshek, Slowey, Blackburn, and Kubel could all take pretty significant steps forward either due to age, injury, bounceback, etc. which would add to our win total without changing anything, and some of our better guys could just as easily improve as well (Liriano and Cuddy in particular). I don’t expect Thome or Valencia to do what they did last season, but they shouldn’t have to either.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 8, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Beware the Sox rotation.
It’s good. And if a couple of those guys flame out with one last grandiose year, the Sox look good. Except their ’pen. Which sounds familiar to us.
The Twins will need to beat the Sox again this year.
And Detroit
this division is getting predictable. :)
I don't see Detroit competing in September.
They’ll finish third, a few games in front of KC and a few more in front of Cleveland.
I feel like we said this last year, too.
If their rotation can stay healthy, yeah, they’ll be a problem.
俳句！
I know I said it last year
Hopefully the results will be the same
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
lol
And I thought I had rose colored glasses. Before injury you don’t think Morneau was due for a massive regression? The Sox offense was dreadful to begin the year but was actually pretty decent by the end of the year. Check your facts.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
even if morneu regresses
playing the full season would be an improvment… that’s what I meant by that. I don’t expect a .450 OBP along with that power, but I do think 150 plus games out of him will be a massive step forward.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 8, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
This is confirmation bias gone mad.
You have pointed out everything that could go wrong for the Sox and right for the Twins without weighting any of it against the counter arguments.
What if Cooper turns Edwin Jackson into an ace?
What if Dunn’s presence helps the hitters around him in the lineup?
What if Liriano turns back into a pumpkin (or merely a good pitcher)?
What of the injury potential to Mauer and Morneau? Especially without an overperforming Thome to make up for their lost performance?
You can’t look at one side without considering the other
To an extent, but
The Twins are by far the younger team. They have a lot of guys in their primes or or coming into them. The Sox are older with way too many guys on teh wrong side of 30. You aren’t going to see a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30 pulling out career years, adn you are far more likely to see them from guys in their mid-to-late 20s…. not to mention that the Twins won 94 games with so many guys not having career seasons, it is quite possible that the same team could go out and win 97 next year with no tweaking.
Manny’s presense was actually great for those batting around him in the lineup, and what exactly did that do again?
There’s injury potential to everyone, so I fail to see how the Twins are more susceptible to it than the Sox. That’s the major fly in any team’s ointment.
But yes, I see your point on considering the other… and the odds are clearly in our favor.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 8, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
My argument isn't with your conclusion; it is with your argument.
Posting a list of things that could go wrong for the Sox and good for the Twins is worthless argument.
On a seperate point, what makes you think that the Twins true talent level was 94 games. Seems illogical to not credit some of 2010’s success to luck/varaince (as I would for almost every winning team). By my estimation, Liriano, Pavano, Young, Valencia and the combination of Thome & Morneau over performed expectation. Aside from losing Nathan, I don’t see anyone who grossly underperformed.
On the subject of "career years"
Young (1 WAR better than his best year), Morneau (1 WAR better than his best year), and Liriano (2 WAR better than his best year) all had career years.
If you assume that most teams have around 16 guys getting significant playing time (9 hitters, 5 starters and 2 high leverage relievers) and that they have productive 8 productive years in their career, you’d expect the average team to have 2 players have career years in a given year.
Span/Cuddy/Kubel all had poor years...
Morneau was hurt.
Baker/Slowey had poor years and/or were hurt.
And I don’t think Liriano outperformed. He was just finally healthy and removed from TJ. I expect him to only be better the next couple of years.
I agree that it’s foolish to only look at positives for the Twins and negatives for the Sox, but I think the Twins have much more reason for optimism in 2011 and beyond. They simply have more talent than the Sox. And that talent is also younger.
Every fan has rose colored glasses for their team
Twins vs White Sox isn’t all that different. As a Twins fan I would want to see the Sox crash and burn, but the point is that isn’t going to happen in 2011. With that said, here is something good about the Sox and bad about the Twins.
White Sox: They are a good team with veteran leadership while their manager is good at providing soundbites to the media.
Twins: Minnesota had a year where everybody peaked and Joe Mauer remained pretty healthy, therefore, the Twins will likely end up with three players on the 60 day DL while pitching outperforms like it did in 2007, but are losing games by 1 to nothing and 2-1 scores.
Young's 25 and entering his peek years
so expecting him to maintain WAR isn’t unrealistic
Morneau had a small sample size
Liriano was healthy for the first time.
We had a lot of players underperform last year to be honest. I think some of those (like Kubel) were back to norm from career years. But Baker/Slowey/Span/Blackburn all underperformed legitimate past performance.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Twins tinted homer glasses
Finding reasons to make the positives facts and the negatives fiction.
We shouldn’t just sit around and tell ourselves the team will be better next year because of reasons we cant control (injuries/down-up years). We should just be trying to make the team better.
That is an awful way of thinking
By your reasoning, we should have gone out and replaced Liriano last offseason. You can’t sacrifice the possibility of a future star for an above-average player now in large quantities. Down years do happen and sometimes you have to take the risk that a player will rebound.
Plus, players tend to peak at a certain age, and if a player is younger than that, there’s no reason to believe he won’t at least perform comparably, if not better. Injuries, I agree, you can’t control, but you can’t plan for them either. If someone gets hurt, you either bring someone up or make a trade. Deal with it as it happens.
No argument
When have I said the Twins shouldn’t make a trade that improves the team?
I’m all for doing diligence and finding quality.
But your idea of quality isn’t something that will make the team better. It’ll just make the team different. Lateral trades don’t fix problems, they only create the potential for disrupting team chemistry.
So when I see a trade I like, I’ll make it. until then, nope.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
You missed what I was getting at
Make trades or don’t make trades whatever, but this idea that we are a better team than either the Tigers/White Sox because of last years injuries/under-performing is retarded.
Heck, before the year the White Sox were in the talk for having the best pitching staff in all of baseball by most experts. Lots of under-performing left them with being in the middle of the pack. Does this lead me, as a Twins fan, to think they will be the best team in the AL Central next year? No, but if I was a White Sox fan? Maybe.
Every story has two sides.
The White Sox are said to be the best team
in the AL Central EVERY year by Fox and the Four Letter Network. Don’t tell me you’re going to buy their analysis of the Twins, which has always been, “Well their payroll will prevent them from competing in the end, while the White Sox will pull off some miracle trade and win the division. Blah blah”
And the Tigers ARE overrated. Every year. No bullpen. No defense. Keep them from hitting the ball out of the ballpark and they lose. Verlander is a classic yo-yo pitcher, and he had his good year last year.
So no, I don’t think the Twins have to match the White Sox and Tigers deal for deal. When has that been their MO? The idea is to find the best team you can get on the field and win the games you should win. Not make the biggest splash and have the best fantasy numbers.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Getting the feeling I'm wasting my time....
We will cancel each other out. I will keep being a sceptical Twins fan who feels its better to hope for the best but expect the worst. You can enjoy wearing your homer Twins glasses and thinking that we are going to be 100% healthy, everyone is going to have on years, and the other teams are just media hype.
Trading Hardy
for two no name minor league relief pitchers certainly sends the message that the Twins are not the big splash trade people. Also, that they really want to win games…ya sure.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
I'm not sure how a small sample size invalidates the fact that Morneau had his highest WAR last year
If anything, it reinforces the fact that it was a flook rather than a shift in talent level.
While I think Liriano is good, it is foolish to expect him to put up 6+ WAR a year.
Also Slowey and Blackburn are pretty meh and performed as such.
Span was right in line with his past performance
Perhaps your expectations are a bit lofty. He is quite good, but probably not elite
ummm, no
.294/.387/.432 in 347 AB’s in 2008, OPS of .819
.311/.392/.415 in 578 AB’s in 2009, OPS of .807
.264/.331/.348 in 629 AB’s in 2010, OPS of .679
2010 was not in line with past performances. Unless you’re talking about him underperforming in the minors, it wasn’t normal Span.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
In his 3 years in the majors, 2.9 WAR, 3.6 WAR and 2.9 WAR
Granted that first 2.9 came in 93 games so lets say he is a 3+ WAR player. Being a franction of a win off is pretty minimal underperformance.
eh, almost a full run off. and 30 points off his batting average from 08.
Not to mention his WAR now is against CFs, not corner outfielders.
And Morneau is a past MVP, so saying he’s only had 1 good year is silly. To say having him even at typical performance for a full season won’t be an upgrade over Morneau for half a year/Cuddyer for the other half is absurd.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't say he would have one good year
I said he had a career year as defined as the best year of his career
He had a WAR of 5.3 last year. His prior high was 4.3 with the rest of his past 5 years being between 2.5 and 3.7 WAR
Objectively it would look like a season around 3+ WAR is a good estimate meaning you can expect about 2 less wins. Not to mention this doesn’t take into account the wins added my Cuddyer/Kubel/Thome filling in for him.
3.5 WAR is the floor
assuming he’s healthy. 5 WAR is a good prediction with 7 WAR possible for Morneau.
I don't think 2010 counts as a career year for Adam Dunn
or anyone else on the Sox, other than Konerko. Rios was Rios, Beckham was terrible, Juan Pierre was better than expected (by everyone) but not ‘career’ by any means, Ramirez was right between his 2008 and 2009 numbers, etc.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yawn.
It’s an ok offense. The only scary thing is if they can keep up the excellent pitching they had last year. I’m especially afraid of that hot prospect they have in Daniel Hudson! An excellent replacement for that left-handed zombie who’s been in their rotation since his deal with the devil was completed back in nineteen aught nine.
Defense looks questionable. Playing Quentin in the outfield is like combining Kubel, Cuddyer, and Young into one super-clod. Good thing Dunn is versitile!
My bad I thought I was actually have a serious conversation.
The team is clearly built on pitching. What they needed was an average to above average offense. Mission accomplished.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
Well as a Twins fan I can say I think the Sox are much improved
You’re absolutely right that their team is built on pitching. The only thing against their pitching is the injury history of Peavey. If he comes back strong then the Sox have a very good shot at the AL central. They’ve got some money coming off the books after this year and have a shot to improve their team with some youth. How’s their farm looking? Anyone coming up that can replace Quintin, AJ, Pierre, and possibly Alexei over the next couple years?
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Interesting point: money coming off the books for 2011
The Twins AND the Sox have a lot of cash coming off after this year. Could make things interesting about 12 months from now.
The fight for Albert Pujols begins!!!
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
especially if the Twins stand pat this year and don't add anything long term
It wouldn’t be the worst long term plan to just roll with the current roster + one year deals. Give all of Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, and Duensing a shot to prove themselves as long term starting options. Then we have Bromberg and Gibson waiting in the wings as well as Swarzak and Manship to make possible starts.
If the current team stays healthy and is doing well then maybe strongly consider making a push for an ace like Greinke or someone else that may become available. I don’t believe anyone thought Haren would be available this past year.
So if we were to go with this plan we’d have Nathan (12 M), Cuddyer (11 M), Kubel (5 M), Hardy (6 M), Capps (6 M) and any other one year deals we sign this year. That’d be 35 Million comign off the books next year.
It might also be nice to see what we really have with relief options rather than spending a bunch of money on guys. See if there’s any chance Gutierrez or Billy Bullock could be late inning/closer options. Give Waldrop and Slama legitimate shots and see if Burnett’s first half was a fluke.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
A serious conversation? With White Sox fans!?!
What fun would that be?
But yeah, it’s not like you’ll be completely hopeless next year. Pitching plus a goodish offense. It’s the same formula as last year, but maybe it will get it done next year. Frankly, I have no confidence the Twins will be better in 2011 than 2010, although they shouldn’t be too much worse either.
bum bum bum...
It’s like a horror movie! DON’T RUN UPSTAIRS (or trade Hardy)!!
Both teams are probably around 90, 91 wins.
The Sox DH can’t possible be any worse and the Twins bullpen in 2010 was pretty amazing. How many saves each did The Three Stooges have?
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
both teams had major injuries
The Twins with Nathan and Morneau and the Sox with Peavey. Either Morneau or Peavey stay healthy and both temas could have been much better.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I'm making my Sox assessment with the idea that Peavy is going to be as effective a lawn mower
as he is starting pitcher. I didn’t like that deal at the time, liked it less when he was good at the end of ‘09 and hate it now. I don’t count on Peavy for bupkiss (or should I say, ‘Butkus’) in ’11.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
peavy doesn't scare me
sale going to the rotation scares me. that’s probably the 2-3-4 deadliest lefthanders in the division
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
You're scared a kid who isn't even 22, less than a year out of college
with barely two pitches and no major league starting experience? Hang on, Hawk Harrelson would like to speak to you.
As a Sox fan, I don’t like the idea of starting Sale, or counting on him for anything. I’ll take him out of the pen, but the rotation and I’mma pull a Kanye West on Kenny.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take a known major league commodity over an unknown young guy with a high ceiling you could potentially break.
Look, I think that the bullpen for both teams are their weakness. Both have to be rebuilt, essentially, and given that the lineups are now much closer and the rotations (by the ’10 numbers) essentially even…
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
your pressure valve is peavy
when peavy comes back, just bust out the old failsafe: “you don’ awful good chris, but shucks jake’s a vet’run and we’re payin’ him a lot more” /venezuelan accent.
believe me this works great, gardy uses it all the time.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
Oh, see I thought you were doing a Lovie Smith impersonation.
Just an Ozzie-imitation tip: we replace ’v’s with ’b’s and ’th’s with ’t’s. As for syntactical structure….i think you’re allowed to make it up as you go along.
And in re: baseball: I don’t think Pena is very good, and i dont’ know why I’m inclined to defend him, but bullpens are just so freakin’ iffy year to year. Except for Kevin Towers, no one really seems to know how to make a reliable one consistently.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Ozzie'll just say it like this:
Sale! You go to bullpeng. You been bery, bery good but Peaby paid lotta mogney. You no paid like Peaby yet.
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
They're not in too bad of a position overall though
They can inject some youth around Rios, Dunn, and Konerko after 2011. They have a lot of money coming off the books in the form of Juan Pierre, Buehrle, anbd Edwin Jackson. However, they’ll also have a lot of holes to fill with that money.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
When you start to feel bad for them...
Just remember that they have a very scary farm system and could become our mortal enemy in the next five years. I know. I know. But it IS something!
These are the Royals
they will trade them before they see the big leagues, or sell them before they have to pay them.
The Royals sell. It’s what they do.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
So glad to hear the Sox are tapped out!
Trading Danks or Floyd would be a backwards move for them. They’re a couple of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
Hmmmm
Phil Mackey
RT @danconnollysun: #Orioles are in serious negotiations w #Twins for JJ Hardy. Looks like two minor league Ps to including Brett Jacobson
3 minutes ago
you gotta be kidding me
Minor league pitchers? what the hell?
didnt the twins just sign a few guys to minor league contracts?
do the twins really think they need minor league pitchers more than JJ Hardy?
its official. i hate the twins.
by eau claire twins fan on Dec 8, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
maybe you are right
the Royals seem to really only want prospects right now. maybe the twins give the O’s Hardy then the O’s get the prospects then the Twins get Greinke?
….wishful thinking
by eau claire twins fan on Dec 8, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
That could be true
“Is there a Zack Greinke behind door number Two?
Jacobson's a good propsect
About a K an inning. Projectable body. And he’s young. But I can only hope the other guy can contribute in 2011, ’cause Jacobson is at least a year away.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Jacobson doesn't even get a writeup in Baseball Prospectus's top 20 in the Orioles' system
Not a single mention. And they don’t have a good system. Am I missing something?
And seriously...
since when are we a team that is building for the future?! The time for the Twins is now. We don’t need to mortgage the future for it, necessarily, but trading a valuable piece of our 2011 team for a piece for our 2014 team makes NO sense. ARGH!
Hardy
its been said over and over there are numerous suitors I have to think some are offering better than a high A reliever with potential and a throw in pitcher. Maybe this is a trade for pieces of another trade but our FO doesn’t usually work that way. This would really be out of the blue unexpected and stupid if they move him for prospects let alone relief prospects that wont be ready this year.
Homer Glasses and You!
Is there some statistical formula that I don’t know about that quantifies who will be injuried/come back from off years because a lot of people on this site feel pretty confident.
For every Morneau there is a Peavy/Ellsbury/Granderson/Pedroia/Santana/Rollins
For every Kubel there is a Buehrle/Kemp/Beckham/Sandoval/Haren/Lind
For every Konerko there is a Young/Cargo/Thome/Soriano/Buchholz
Every team in baseball deals with these and unless that formula does exist I don’t know why my Twins brethren feel so confident things will turn our way next year. You expect they will happen but you cant expect they wont.
Also
We had the 6th overall offense in baseball last year. The Sox/Tigers? They were 10/11 in overall offense last year. They have both gotten better on that side of the ball while we have not.
we have if Justin comes back healthy all year...
The sox have signed one new player to the team thus far. you think Dunn will shoot them up 5-6 places in offense?
by supertrooper15 on Dec 8, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Do you think Justin is going to bring another 8 WAR season to the table?
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
No
BUT having 2/3rds of his performance for the entire year would make me happy
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 8, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like it if he only had 12 home runs in 2011 too
;-)
Your 2011 White Sox: DONKEY KONG!!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Dec 8, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well obviously I meant the non counting stats
But I can see your point.
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 8, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
No I don't
In fact, I think they will regress in 2011 even with Dunn as DH. I expect a revival of the Tigers who were actually second at the All-Star break while you Sox were first. Had it not been for Detroit’s injuries, the race for first would have been a lot closer.
Had it not been for our injuries
The race would have never been close
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
What about Mauer, Morneau and Liriano makes you think you shouldn't count on injuries occuring in the future
Assume that you won’t perform to potential and plan accordingly.
God, I hate the fact that I'm agreeing with a White Soxs fan.
Hope for the best, but expect the worst. I feel too many Twins fans are expecting the best.
This is exactly how a good number of Sox fans were talking last year
They would argue that in 2005 we had a mediocre offense and good pitching and won the WS so the fact that the 2010 Sox had mediocre offense and good pitching was a recipe for success, ignoring the fact that the 2005 Sox had an inordinate number of career years and were extremely healthy. They claimed getting a legit DH and 3B was unnecessary.
Moral of the story, just because a flawed team succeeded in the past is not an excuse to settle for a flawed team going forward. The 2010 Twins were a 90 win team that managed 94 wins. That doesn’t mean you can stand pat and win 94 games this year. The 2011 Twins could just as easily be a 90 win team that only win 86 games and comes in second to a 86 win Sox/Tigers team that wins 90 games.
Or
The Twins could be an 84 win team that wins the World Series in 2011 after clenching the Wild Card.
Don't get me wrong, Twins fans should be stoked about their chances
Just as Sox and Tigers fans should. I came over here today to get a Non-Sox fan perspective on the Dunn & Konerko signings. I didn’t come intending to pee on anyone’s cornflakes.
When I saw diehardtwinsfan’s post, I felt compelled to point out the over the top confirmation bias. That isn’t to say that the same thing isn’t happening on South Side Sox, but we also had a buzzkill of a front page post about the flaws of Kenny William’s current strategy.
As I see it, the 2010 Sox, Tigers, and Twins were all pretty close talentwise (84 to 88 win teams). The Tigers had the breaks go against them, the Twins had them go for them and the Sox were about what could be expected.
In 2011, the Sox fixed there most glaring weakness. The Tigers lost Mags but added Victor Martinez and will probably add more. The Twins have sat pat so far.
Fans are supposed to have rose colored glasses as I said above.
However, it is true that injuries have been a big part of baseball, not just on the Twins. Everything else being equal, I honestly believe that the AL Central race would have been a lot closer if Detroit didn’t have their injuries. The difference is that the Twins replacement players stepped up, Detroit’s didn’t.
I agree on the replacement players stepping up
That is actually one of our organizational strengths IMO. We teach everyone, on every level, to play the same and it does translate to the big league club.
Does every fan base have rose colored glasses? Sure, but that doesn’t mean you should discount other teams like I feel poeple are doing.
Is Magglio coming back to DET?
Because their tailspin really started after he got hurt
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
They have been linked
They have money to spend and they need a right handed bat. The scary thing is they have also been linked to Pavano.
I was trying to get at that our offenses were pretty close to each other
6, 10, 11 are pretty close out of 30 teams.
great, I was getting really sick of having superior defense at SS
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, who wants that whole 'solid defense' thing?
And more importantly, who wouldn’t want two minor league pitchers in return for said solid defense? Psh, the White Sox/Tigers will have nothing on us this year…
俳句！
Ben Jacobson??
Ok, NOW I’m kinda nervous…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
kinda nervous?
I am officially incapable of work now. I’m in a state of petrified shock. I just keep refreshing twitter, MLBTR and this site…hoping…praying…
same here
I am trying to study for my finals next week and I can’t get anything done.
by eau claire twins fan on Dec 8, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I really can't function at anything else right now either
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
One of the players discussed
Is Chris Tillman He would be a huge help as a fifth starter or long relief in 2011. It just depends on what the Twins do with Brian Dunesing.
Hmmm
Tillman and Jacobson + Slowey or Baker or Blackburn + Hicks and/or Revere to KC for Greinke?
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
B Dunce
should be a starter he has earned that spot. Many seem to want to move him back to the pen and while he was pretty good in that role I would much rather have him as a solid starter he has earned his chance to be in the rotation at the start of the year.
Tillman would be awesome, he was a highly ranked prospect in 2009...
number 16 according to MLB.com
Also twitter rumors that the Twins are close to signing a multiyear K with Pavano
No idea if it is reliable, but it’s certainly plausible.
Fox9Sports RT:@*BREAKING NEWS* Carl “I Quit In NY” Pavano is on the verge of wrapping up a multi year deal with #Twins :Tigers / Royals one last shot
that's what I was thinking too
I’d like Pavano back, but not at the expense of Hardy.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
worst case scenario?
probably not. but bad. still hoping there is a multi team trade coming out of this somewhere…
True
I kind of think the Twins could use Chris Tillman as trade bait. The Mets are looking for a starting pitcher and are willing to give up shortstop Jose Reyes.
If it is Tillman
Then I’m excited because that means Bill Smith is not an idoit and is bring in a big piece back. We have pretty much everything else other than high ceiling, ready now, pitching prospects.
This is f'n stupid!
If the Twins dump Hardy for some crappy A ball prospects so they can re-sign Pavano I will personally leave madison, come back to Minnesota and slap bill smith across his fat head! I thought he was smarter than this. But I guess not. Damn!
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
by d-mac on Dec 8, 2010 2:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I hope that somebody in the FO at least glances at these threads
by eau claire twins fan on Dec 8, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Doubt it.
What do we, the dumb fans know anyways? I highly doubt they’re even aware of any form of sabermetrics.
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
by d-mac on Dec 8, 2010 3:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wasn't there an interview with a front office guy at TT a while ago,
where he admitted that they pretty much use BA and RBIs to value players?
I remember that. Just stupid.
The advanced stastical analysis available today is incredible. If the twins are gonna be too intrenched in the old ways they are going to get left farther and farther behind as more and more teams utilize these methods, then more efficiently utilize them. This might explain some teams fleecing us in big trades recently. Cough. Santana-cough. Cough. Garza-cough. Excuse me
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
by d-mac on Dec 8, 2010 3:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No.
The Twins use advanced metrics, too. They have employees whose job it is to analyse those numbers.
When I’ve talked to Rob Antony, this has been related pretty clearly. As for the RBI argument, that was from an interview at Parker’s site Over the Baggy. Antony said he’d look at a player’s RBI over slugging %, because the ability to drive in runs was more important to him than a guy who racked up extra base hits.
Ah, yeah, I remember now.
Thanks for the correction.
Oh ok.
Might have been selective memory on my part. I always have this impression that the Twins FO doesn’t either have any idea about advanced stats or the people they do hire they don’t take too seriously. But, I really have no idea what goes on in there, so its all speculation.
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
Hoping and praying
for some ultimate master plan to unfold here
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions
but it sounds like the Royals want help up the middle in addition to pitching...
So…we don’t seem like a great trade partner for them without Hardy…
Hopefully not!
I really don’t want to be the team to overpay for Greinke.
I must be the only one who doesn't really want Pav back
I would rather save the money and gamble on the Duke (Duscherer) and keep Hardy
I want him back, but not at the expense of Hardy and not for the 30 million he wants.
The Hardy thing I can be more swayed on if we get something massive, but it’ll be tough. I really don’t want Hardy gone at all…but I will make exceptions.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I don't want Pav back either.
I rather have kept Hardy and dipped into our farm system and gone after a real pitcher. But……until something becomes official who knows what Bill Smith is doing. He might just, really praying hard here, that he does something that blows everyone away (in a good way).
+1
I agree. I love the Stache, but to give up hardy to resign him is regressing, and not at least making progress. It’s like taking 1 step forward and two steps back.
"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau
by d-mac on Dec 8, 2010 3:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not at all
I think most of the people in favor of him due so for the novelty stache, to be honest.
I think we’re overpaying for giving a guy good run support last year. Yeah he eats innings. But with 5 starters, 4 of whom are virtual clones, do you NEED an inning-eater anymore?
Sorry, I don’t see Pavstache as worth more than 2yr/10mil in any realistic market.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
This makes no sense, ergo, it is not the whole story
The Twins don’t make trades that make no sense. But they neither need more right handed pitchers who pitched in A ball last year, nor do they throw away such a valuable trade chip. I predict they are aquiring these pitchers as trade chips for another trade. What other high-profile player is on the market? What are his team’s demands? Starting with two high-upside pitching prospects.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The name Jose Reyes
was thrown out there earlier
Mets looking for pitching
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
but he is due 9.375 this year, they would have to eat a big part of that
otherwise what is the point of getting rid of Hardy
Upgrading I guess
Reyes would be an upgrade over Hardy and I do think the Mets would be willing to eat some salary to get better prospects back. But the real question is, is it really worth it?
OMG
someone rates someone as an upgrade over Hardy??? Everyone makes JJ sound like Ripken in his prime(Cal, not Billy, Jr, not Sr
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 8, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Edit fail
Sometimes I think we are talking about Cal Ripken Jr in his prime, and not about JJ hardy. Don’t get me wrong, I like him, but I don’t think the sky will fall if we trade him, as long a swe get a decent return.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 8, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
While I don't think the sky will fall if we trade him...
if your idea of a shortstop is Casilla, you can bet your namesake’s ERA will go up a half a run just on the difference between the 2 if he pitches for the Twins next season.
He’ll be needing the run support a WHOLE lot more.
by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 8, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking Greinke
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Nothing we could get from the O's would help get Grienke.
The Royals are asking the world for him, and frankly, they should.
Yeah, probably wishful thinking
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I like this game
Keep the faith alive. What about the Rays? They are apparently willing to move just about any of their starting pitchers. And they have a history of fleecing…i mean trading…with the Twins. Would they want pitching prospects?
You forgot Bartlett
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 8, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Holy hell. This is not a good way to come back to Twins land...
What’s going on in the front office? Do they have no idea how to value a player? Or is it just Gardy making roster moves again? Either way, this is just pathetic.
They say trade unlikely to be completed today.
Sign of good things or just prolonging our torture?
42
Both.
They go hand in hand sometimes
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 8, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Am I in some alternate universe?
Hardy was so bad two years ago, that he was sent to the minor leagues, which is why is not a free agent right now. Last year, he played 102 games due to injuries, and his defense dipped considerably at the end of the year, presumably because of those injuries.
Now, I am not advocating just giving him away, but I think people may need a little perspective here on his value. Is he a good defensive player? When healthy, yes. Pretty big if. Is he an offensive force? Other than 1 1/2 years, no, not really, he is best suited as an 8 or 9 hitter. Is he worth 6 million because he had some pop 2-3 years ago? Maybe, maybe not. I just think some perspective is in order.
Question, would people here be going insane over this if Casilla was not the alternative? I do tend to be frightened at the thought of Casilla getting 500 ABs myself.
Run baby run!
Casilla is scary as an every day player, for sure
But also, our team looks to be quite good this year. If we are only going to get back minor league pitchers, isn’t it more valuable to take the chance on Hardy staying healthy and the Twins making a run in 2011? It just seems like the Twins are so intent on getting the highest value for him in a trade that they aren’t considering that his highest value may be staying with the Twins.
I'm just sick of this front office getting swindled, time and time again, in trades.
I’m not at all convinced that they have any idea what a player is really worth. That’s legitimately frightening.
Yeah, it's all about the alternative.
Hardy’s an average-type player, probably a little better if healthy. But going from average back to the dark ages is like going from Joe Mauer to AJ Pierzynski. It’s just cutting 2 or 3 wins off the team with no realistic prospect of getting them back.
And like Hillstop said, it also just smells like a a sign of overall cluelessness in the front office.
it's not just about alternative...
yes, hardy had a rough stretch, but he’s still young and overall has been a very valuable player at a premium position.
the brewers’ only gave him away because they have a stud defensive SS with a real future there in alcides.
i actually like casilla, but he’s not in the same ballpark as a prospect IMO.
I'm a big JJ fan
But I have to agree most of this is coming from the fact that we don’t understand why it’s happening. Having Casilla as the everyday with no competition (except Tolbert) seems like a terrible idea. And most of us just don’t understand why the FO is so hot to trade away a very good player who is not going to be making a ridiculous amount of money. It just doesn’t seem to make a lot of logical sense, and so we fret about it.
I’d have to say more of my worry lands in the “then what will we do” department than just anger over them not valuing one of my favorite players.
seems to me
that one of the big numbers we looked at was total run production… i.e. runs scored+runs batted in-home runs. I always thought that was a great indicator of a players true value offensively, taking into account his place in the batting order, etc. This is why I value a guy like Delmon. 112 RBI with 21 homers. sounds like a lot of productive hitting.to me, and he’s only 25.
Phil Davison for President in 2012
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 8, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions
Bartlett to Padres By Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLBtraderumors.com
The Padres have acquired Jason Bartlett from the Rays, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock (on Twitter). Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos could be heading to the Rays in the deal.
The Padres had a vacancy at short since Miguel Tejada signed with the division rival Giants. The Rays can ease Reid Brignac into an everyday role. The 24-year-old batted .256/.307/.385 in 326 plate appearances in his first extended taste of the major leagues.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that the Rays would make a trade (Twitter links) and Dan Hayes of the North County Times (Twitter link) and Bill Center of the San Diego Union Tribune also reported on the story as it broke.
I guess that means Hardy becomes a more valueable trade trip?
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