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Around SBN: Bob Sapp Denies Throwing Fights

Wrapping Up the Winter Meetings: J.J. Hardy, Scott Diamond, Carl Pavano, Tsuyoshi Nishioka

...still the wrong Nishioka...

It's been a long few days, so I'll keep it brief and to the point.  Be sure to check out Roger's vote below for Twinkie Town's #1 prospect for 2011.

What Happened

  1. The Twins traded J.J. Hardy, Brendan Harris and cash to the Orioles for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.  We've already gone over this in spades.
  2. In the Rule 5 draft, the Twins selected Neil Scott Diamond.  Diamond will have to stay on the Twins 25-man roster all season.  Out of the Atlanta organization, he saw his first time at triple-A this past summer at the age of 23.  His greatest strengths include strong ground ball tendencies, leading to few home runs allowed, and excels versus left-handed hitters.

What's Rumored

  1. With the Nationals backing off Carl Pavano, the Twins are the favorite for his services in 2011.  The Brewers are a suitor as well but refuse to go to three years.
  2. The Twins kicked the tires on Koji Uehara, Rich Harden and Octavio Dotel, but weren't reported to re-visit their interest in Brandon Webb, which was noted in November.
  3. If the Twins land Pavano, the Twins might be willing to trade a back-end starter.  Kevin Slowey's name was mentioned.
  4. Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain may or may not be looking for massive dollars.
  5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is looking for a deal in the range of three years, $12 million.

What We Learned

  1. J.J. Hardy wasn't as valued much as salary relief and bullpen help.
  2. The Twins trust Alexi Casilla more than a majority of Twins fans.
  3. Carl Pavano and the Twins have a mutual interest in Pavstache:  The Return.
  4. Joe Nathan was shut down until after Christmas, to keep his arm from getting built up, then let down before getting built up again in spring training.  This way he can start throwing in January, ramping up to mid-February and games in March.
  5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be flying to Minneapolis next week to take his physical.  His deal is imminent.

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Hardy's salary dumped to make room for an unknown and to overpay for an aging (albeit good) veteran.

This deal has been causing me to be in a perpetual state of facepalm since midnight.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 6:51 PM EST reply actions  

2010 Twins Offseason up to this point

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On, Wisconsin!

by John Veldhuis on Dec 9, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

This post

Seriously, I don’t understand why baseball fans totally out of the loop think they know what is best for the team better than the trained professionals who get the job to actually make the decisions.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

What's up with all this condescension on TT lately? Its been going on since October.

Just because you don’t agree with me doesn’t mean that you should belittle me. I’ve been a member of this site for the entire season now, and I don’t remember there being all the negativity against fellow members when I joined as there is now.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait--who is the aging vetern they are making room for?

Tsuyoshi is younger than JJ Hardy—I hope you realize that.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

He's talking about Pavano.

The “unknown” is Tsuyoshi.

It’s funny that he forgot the terrible baseball player who will actually be replacing Hardy.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I just assumed Casilla would be starting at 2nd anyways after the season.

I was all for him showing what he can do, albeit with a really short leash. But now the infield is a mess because the FO wanted to save a couple of mil for an aging starter who would be a marginal upgrade at best for our current rotation and take a gamble on an import.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Loosen up my friend

How long did you think JJ would be around? This is his walk year anyway. Is he a superstar? Does he deserve 7 or 8 M a year?

Between injuries, lack of power and speed, and the way he “hangs back on the ball” according to Gardy, there just was not the conviction that he is the guy. So, they cut bait on him one year early and saved some dough.

Get over it. Plouffe, for all intents and purposes, is pretty much a mirror image of Hardy at this point. He may not have the breakout year that JJ once did, but over the long term, his averages will be very similar, and if we are lucky, so will his defense. And he may be more durable.

by Old Twins Cap on Dec 9, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Plouffe is the mirror image of Hardy

Except with a bunch of errors and no bat

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

The funniest thing about this

Is that Plouffe and Hardy are were pretty much identical-looking at one point last year. About the time we clinched, you had to concentrate to tell them apart.

by Anjemon on Dec 10, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I meant for signing Pavano.

The unknown was yoshi. Alright so we have two question marks, possibly as much as four if Morneau doesn’t play like he did before he got hurt and what if Danny V’s season was all luck. Look I was not vehemently opposed to any trade with Hardy, but it would have to be a damn good deal. Since it looks like the market undervalued him, we should have just hung on to him. Unfortunately the FO does not value him as highly as they should. That alone annoys me, and they were never forced into this trade.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Scott Diamond played for Canada in the WBC 2009

Maybe he’s being brought in to make Morneau feel more comfortable.

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 7:00 PM EST reply actions  

$50k for a draft pick?

not bad

and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES

by yefrem on Dec 9, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait? You're the authoratiative speaker for the Twins fanbase? We don't trust Alexi?

I didn’t start trusting Alexi until this year. Frankly, when he did play, he outperformed Hardy.

I’m ready to give Alexi a shot at the starting lineup.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:08 PM EST reply actions  

He speaks for the reasonable ones

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Because he's never been good for a significant amount of time.

And he makes a lot of mental mistakes for a guy who’s played so rarely.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's my deal

I understand my outlook on baseball differs from most of the rest of the arm chair statisticians out there, but…

You have to give players a chance to perform for them to ever do it. If you never give a player like Casilla a chance to perform, of course he never will. But he played well last year, especially later in the season. Why not give him a chance? That is what this game is about. Baseball is such a chance sport.

Casilla isn’t a baby anymore. I just don’t think giving him a chance is such a ludicrous idea. Honestly, I think Casilla wants that chance, and from what I’ve seen him do, he could very well step up to the plate.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course you have to give players a chance.

But you have to take circumstances into account. People perceive Casilla’s chance at coming at the expense of a poor Hardy trade—that’s going to turn people off.

I hope you’re right. I hope Casilla hits 280/350/390 and steals 30 bases while batting second. But if you want people to accept the fact that Casilla is going to be playing regularly, you also have to accept that he hasn’t exactly been a shinig example of achievement so far in his career and that it will take people time to get past a trade that happened just a few hours ago.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

You're Right

I am kind of going on faith. I want Casilla to do well. I really think he can—and that is exactly opposite what I thought of him up until about 7-8 months ago. But I dunno, the way I have seen him play makes me think he is ready.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

We've tried starting him before.

Remember ‘09? The only time he’s ever been successful is in a utility role or had to compete for his job. He has yet to prove he can handle a job that is given to him. Now there is no safety net for trying him. So if he sucks at SS next year, we’re SOL.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Hw many chances should players get?

I don’t have the answer. But if a player is talented, he will typically get more than one chance.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 9, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I was all before giving him one last shot to prove it.

But that was before the Hardy trade. Now we have to give him the position by default and no fail-safe.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

My fear is the “no fail safe” portion. Who do we use if Casilla can’t cut it?

Also, we’re planning to start a MI of two guys who have to prove themselves. That makes me nervous.

by Anjemon on Dec 10, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

He had a decent year in '08

hitting .281/.333/.374
but that fell to .202/.280/.259 in ‘09 when they made him a starter
he’s a utility type player, not a starter

"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin

by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 9, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Alexi Casilla's best effort so far

Has been below average at 2B. His worst years have been horrible. You really want to hand a guy a job because he’s shown flashes of adequate?

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm

I thought I was making a case against it
‘cause that’s what I meant to do

"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin

by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 9, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

It's quite amazing

how this whole site goes to pieces over trading away a .268 6 HR SS
I’d expect this reaction if we traded Delmon or Liriano for salary relief, but not JJ

"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin

by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 10, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions  

nah

everyone seems to be okay with trading away 112 RBI’s for a no power CF coming off major injury(Ellsbury). I personally love me some Delmon and I am pulling for him to be even better, if only Gardy could find it in his heart to insert him between the M&M boys…just imagine the numbers he could put up.

I hate Bill Smith

by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 10, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Umm, no I've been

pretty much the President of the “You don’t trade Delmon” club for a while now.

For the same reasons: he has more value where he is than any possible replacement. He satisfies an area of organizational weakness. And we don’t have anyone better that could do the job.

Note, those weren’t sufficient reasons to not trade Hardy, however. So I’m not sure they won’t do something inane like trade Young as well.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree on that one

Again, my caveat has always been “no player is untradeable.”

But any trade of a player in a position of organizational weakness needs to plug a bigger hole, or leave pieces we can then knock-on trade to fill the mess trading the other guy makes.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry

Responding to the top of the thread

by DJL44 on Dec 10, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

it was not a Hardy for Casilla trade

Smith traded a top starting shortstop for two minor league relievers. One of them is 28 years old. What the fuck is that???? Its so unbelievably odd.

Even if Casilla is an all star next year it would still be a bad trade. He got no value for a position the team has strugled to fill since Guzman.

by clutterheart on Dec 9, 2010 11:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

"Struggled"?

Denny Hocking, Chris Gomez, Augie Ojeda, Juan Castro….these guys “struggled”?

You have such high standards..../

by Jesse on Dec 10, 2010 7:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Hey

Denny Hocking was legitimately good in 2000 – he batted .298/.373/.416 and became the first player ever to appear in ten or more games at seven different positions (everything but pitcher and catcher).

Other than that, he will probably be best-remembered for missing the 2002 ALCS because he got spiked during the ALDS celebration and being the second-to-last Twin to wear #7.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 10, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

it's the money, purely the money

Hardy was traded for two unexciting minor league relievers…and $7 million. They would have DFA’s him for the money alone, but figured they may as well see what they could get thrown in. They just didn’t want him. Given the lack of a logical explanation there’s always the possibility they did it for the reason they said: they prefer people who can run fast to people who can field and hit. (But the $7 million surely was a factor as well.)

by by jiminy on Dec 10, 2010 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

You don't save any money releasing a guy

They’d already offered him arbitration, committing to paying his salary this year if they couldn’t trade him. If they really “would have DFA’s him for the money alone”, they’d have simply nontendered him.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 10, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly

Calling it a salary dump doesn’t work when you send the other team money in addition to getting nothing for him. Bill Smith gave his reason, and it was essentially: Gardy doesn’t like him.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

We don't have to pay about $8 million we were obligated to pay

That is a salary dump, at least in part. The sticking point was Harris. The only way to get them to take Harris wass if we agreed to pay a third of his salary. But they have to pay two thirds. That’s nearly $1 million we would have been stuck with. It’s not the full value of Harris’s contract, but it’s still most of it. That is still a salary dump.

I’ve said this before. Hardy is about a 3 WAR player. That’s worth $10 million. In this market, he’ll get $7 million in arbitration. Add the nearly $1 million for Harris and the Twins are off the hook for $8 million, while losing $10 million in value. In essence, the Twins are paying $1 million a piece for Hoey and Jacobson. That’s not a horrible risk considering the potential reward.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Potential reward?

For 2 overage A ball players? There’s 1 player who ‘might’ have a chance of appearing in a Twins uni. He won’t be a 3 WAR player. Doubtful he’d even be replacement level.

So yes, it was a horrible risk. Especially when you go from Hardy to Casilla in the process.

You don’t PAY to give up a quality player for prospects. Period. Even with Harris in the deal, this was a full-fledged fleecing. So no, I don’t buy it as a salary dump. You want to do that, you trade Kubel. He’s the player that doesn’t fit. There’s only one reason for this. And it’s not a justification, it’s an excuse. The FO should be smart enough to know when a Manager is overstepping his bounds.

And you don’t make your team weaker when your competition gets stronger.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Harris is not a quality player

We were paying $500,000 to give away $900,000 of his contract. Don’t you get that? We were not paying to give away Hardy. We wanted Baltimore to take at least part of Harris’s contract. Baltimore offered Hoey and Jacobson for Hardy straight up. We wanted them to take Harris off our hands as well. The compromise was that Baltimore would take most of Harris’s contract.

Also, Hoey is not an A ball player. He split time between AA and AAA last year. His numbers are intriguing. Everything except the walks is encouraging. And he throws harder than anyone in the system. He’s not worthless. The only reason he is old for a prospect is he had shoulder surgery, pushing his development back 2 years.

Jacobson is an A ball prospect. I would rank him in the 30s in this system, based on numbers. But he has more upside than all but three or four relievers in the system (Bullock, Gutierrez, Hoey, possibly Tootle).

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2010 2:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I get it.

I’m saying it doesn’t justify it. Full Stop. We already gave them Hardy for a song. We didn’t need to make the deal more lopsided.

Yes, Jacobson had shoulder surgery. Now we’re not sure if he can match his prior velocity without going pop again. And 28 is still 28 when it comes to the length of a player’s career. He’s got a host of levels to wander through to prove he can come close. I’d say you’re ranking him far too high, given the issues.

Even if Hoey ‘does’ make the Twins. And I say it’s a big ‘if,’ he doesn’t project as a 2.5WAR reliever. Few bullpen pitchers do. So you still threw Hardy down a hole. You don’t pay for the privilege of being hosed. It was a fail, pure and simple.

The best deal in this case was no deal. Keep Hardy, take the draft picks next season, and have insurance in case Yoshi doesn’t pan out or Casilla is what we know he is.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 11, 2010 3:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I still think the trade was largely a salary dump

Sending the other team a little money is common in a salary dump trade – the Twins still clear $7M off the books. I don’t think, though, that they felt obligated to dump Hardy – the post I was responding to implied that they would’ve just as soon released him, and I think they’d have simply nontendered him if that were the case. They weren’t certain they wanted him to start, and they found someone willing to take him off their hands, along with another bad contract.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 11, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

what if he fails?

Tolbert would be a starter. We could have given Casilla a chance at second and kept Hardy while easing in Yoshi. We could only have had one question mark instead of banking on two players we have no idea what they will do.

by Drat on Dec 9, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

My reasoning exactly.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah yes

In the world where money doesn’t matter, which is not this one.

I feel like people are forgetting that baseball is a business, not just a game.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Some people might. I don't.

Here’s hoping Casilla proves us wrong. But that would be the surprise.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

A business where winning is important

And I think that spending a little bit of money on a quality SS is a reasonable expense. We didn’t need to bring back Pavano, that costs money. We don’t need to bring back Thome, also costs money. It just seems like they’re unwilling to spend on it Hardy.

by Anjemon on Dec 10, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

let me guess

you want the twins to resign LNP so that he can have his rightful spot at 3B.

LNP-Alexi-Yoshi-Cuddy (if Morneau isn’t healthy yet) best infield ever.

by eau claire twins fan on Dec 9, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Um, no

I want the Twins to make good, budget conscious decisions; and seeing how Target Field plays, I am TOTALLY on board the smallball-speed strategy.

It’s like people can’t comprehend the idea that to make changes to get better, you actually have to make changes.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

That's part of it.

Mostly people are having a hard time with the return for Hardy—not that Hardy was traded.

Being on board with good, budget-conscious decisions is one thing. Accepting the lip service of the front office about wanting to get faster is another.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Not me

I have a problem with both. It strikes me as rash beyond reason to enter the season with Casilla and Nikiosha as the middle infield and Tolbert as the backup plan.

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

That's another thing.

Expecting a championship-caliber team to field two new middle infielders who have A) never played Major League Baseball and B) never played Major League Baseball well seems to be a lapse in judgment.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You're totally right.

The Twins should have done nothing rash, taken no risks, done everything safe, and stayed put.

So we could get swept in the playoffs, and everyone would just complain about how the Twins can’t build a new better team again.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Why are you trying to make me defend statements I haven't made?

If you want to talk about risks—you take good ones. Nishioka, good risk. Choosing Casilla over Hardy, I see that as a bad one.

Sometimes a front office needs to make unpopular decisions. I think this was one of those times.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry

I don’t mean to attack you. But I do feel like a lot of people less thoughtful than yourself have just jumped onto this “anti-Hardy trade” bandwagon.

This isn’t necessarily a terrible trade. That’s all.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

People jump on bandwagons...it's part of sports.

Big things happen, people react. It’ll blow over.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally

I haven’t fully judged the trade yet, and I won’t until… oh, October or so. I plan on checking Hardy’s production and comparing to whoever ends up playing SS for us. I am nervous about relying on two middle infielders that have never held prolonged MLB starting roles, though.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I am a little nervous too...

but I’m also really excited to see what happens.

Every year is a new year. I’m glad the Twins have tried to make some changes to fit their new ballpark. I think this will shape up to be pretty exciting, no matter what the outcome!

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Other changes

Dumping Jim Thome and signing Scott Podsednik would be “making changes” also.

What is so terrible about having a good SS, good 2B and a good utility infielder? I honestly can’t see the conflict the team was trying to avoid. They could have given Casilla 400 AB as the utility guy. Now they’ll give 400 AB to Tolbert instead. Yuck.

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no "band-wagon"

I’ve been saying since the first hint of him being non-tendered that if we move (except for a really good price) him or release him I would bash my head against the wall. And I have kept my word. Although, not in the literal sense.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

You’re confusing not thoughtful with not in agreement with you.

If there’s one thing that’s the right of every sports fan—especially fans of teams that get hundreds of millions of public dollars—it’s the right to call the management idiots when they feel like they deserve it. I’m hardly a knee-jerk anti-management hater. But I think they deserve it on this one.

by Luke in MN on Dec 9, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

So that is your take on it. You are due that.

But if we do not agree with that take, then we are idiots, like the GM?

Cannot we just all have an opinion and not talk down to anyone who does not agree?

Run baby run!

by darren004 on Dec 9, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I certainly hope so

and don’t quite know why you posted in response to me; I didn’t talk down to anyone.

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It's an ill-advised decision by the FO

Sometimes the status-quo is not bad if the result of the change puts you in a worse position than you were in with the status quo.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

No, you're right

I shouldn’t be so harsh on the dissenting opinions.

I guess I just don’t see this move as being clearly incredibly stupid. I like to think in close situations like these that the front office knows things I do not, and I should trust they are making more informed decisions.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah that is a good point

I guess my point for now is only that I don’t know if I agree or disagree with it, because I feel there are so many unknowns for me with the team right now.

Are them dumping Hardy’s salary to make it more realistic to re-sign Pavano, for instance? I am totally on-board with that.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been defending the trade all day I feel like

and I’m not even in favor of it. I don’t have a problem with people not liking it. I would rather we had kept him truth be told. It’s just been the “sky is falling” responses that I find to be a bit silly. I guess I just have more faith in the front office than many people on this site.

One positive I do see from this trade is that we get to see what our other MI have got. We’ll probably get good looks at Casilla, Nishioka, Plouffe, and Hughes this year. They all at least have the potential to be ML quality players. Probably not all stars but solid every day regulars is their upside right? If they can get solid play from 2 of those guys to handle the middle infield we just got a place to save money so the Twins can spend some moola on other areas.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 9, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

"Seeing what else we've got"

Isn’t a valid option when you’re supposed to be trying to win. 162 games is plenty of time to put in replacement players and take ‘a look’ anyway.

Besides which, that’s what Spring Training is for. Sorry, you don’t prime a pennant race by “seeing what you got” with an untested infield.

I’ve no faith in Bill Smith when it comes to trades. Because he’s made more bad ones than good.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 9, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

You sure do when it's the 8th hitter in your lineup.

Bill Smith helped us build a 94 game winner. The Twins have been “seeing what they’ve got” for years with players. That’s how they’ve been able to be the best team in the AL Central for the past decade. Just because they have a little more cash doesn’t mean they’ll stop promoting from within and giving young guys a chance.

Is this the best scenario? NO Would we be better with Hardy? Probably, definitely if he’s healthy all year. Are we suddenly way worse than last year? No.

Hardy played 100 games last year so less than 2/3 and of those 100 games he played he brought little to nothing to the table offensively until July. Losing him sucks but does it suddenly mean we can’t compete in a pennant race? not at all.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 9, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

And Casilla has brought

little or nothing offensively or defensively to the table his entire career. They DID try him as an everyday player before.

And the Twins made trades in the past for VALUE. There was no value in this trade. It was a “kick him to the curb” trade. That’s dumb. There was NO redeeming value in this trade when they could’ve kept him for 6mil for another year and let the players they want to try at those positions settle in with an ESTABLISHED player to help them.

That way, if one of them falters, you have…you know…a backup instead of trading away MORE talent to fill the hole you made unnecessarily midseason?

Sorry, this isn’t consistent with the way the Twins FO has done business. That’s why I’m mad about it. Or let’s put it this way…it’s not consistent with how they’ve done business when they’ve done it WELL.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Missed point me thinks...

I believe the question is not if the sky is falling because we traded JJ. Rather the questions is “have we done anything to make this team better, so we can get past the first round of the playoffs?”.

Keeping Hardy-Push
Losing Hardy- Unknown
Losing Hardy and replacing him with last years inferior backup (Casilla for the lamens)- Subtraction

Still waiting for someone or something that signals we have a better team than last year. Every other team we battled last year has made moves to improve thus far. The same players, one year older doesn’t signal improvement to me.

I see last years players like this (remember IMO):

Span- Hopefully better +1

Casilla- probably worse (track history of starting is shaky, no news of improvement through winter ball or the likes, worse defense than Hardy) -2

Mauer- Expecting a more complete season (without long slump) +1

Morny- Expecting a more complete season (without injury) +2

Delmon- Hard to duplicate last season +0

Cuddy- Declining with age, overpaid -1

Thome- Can we really expect this again, I think not (if he comes back)(see Fav-re) -1

Kubel- I see some improvement, return to 2009 #’s (see off-season condtioning program) +1

Valencia- Perpetually on Gardy’s S-list. Should improve, but the rigors of the second season might hurt +0

Nyshioka- Origami anyone? Who knows how his numbers in Japan will carry over…could be Ichiro (not likely), could be Fukodome (hopefully not). Most reasonable scenario is somewhere in the middle…I.E. David Eckstien +1 for hustle, -1 for no experiance= worse than the O-dog…total: still -1

Plouffe, Tolbert and whoever else -3…they don’t have it, sorry.

Grand total without any other moves….-3 (the team is worse defensively and offensively)

I will do pitchers later, but the early estimation isn’t pretty for the staff…

Either way, I will still cheer and hope for the best…

by J.RO on Dec 10, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

You're a bit more optimistic

about Kubel than me. I honestly would rate that 0. What he did last season was consistent with his career, and 08 was the anomaly/career year.

You’re a bit more pessimistic than me on Yoshi. I think he can at least be ‘as’ good as O-dog (hit similar, defense probably not a significant drop-possibly a wash, runs much better). So I’d say probably 0.

I think Young can duplicate last season offensively, and will improve defensivelydue to familiarization with the new field. +.5 maybe?

I’d basically agree on the rest. Anyway, by both our reasoning, as I see it, moving hardy for nothing only makes sense in the Gardy-verse where “effort” means more when it comes to defense than “talent.”

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

In retrospect...

And based upon what you wrote, I agree with ur up and down ticks for the aforementioned players.

by J.RO on Dec 10, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Young got worse on defense as the year progressed

Kind of shoots down your theory that he would improve as he knew the field better.

by DJL44 on Dec 10, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

not really

Everyone was saying how the ball would fly more as the weather got warmer. No one knew what to expect. Familiarity would be measured against comparable parts of the season.

Most everyone runs down over 150+ games, both offensively and defensively. I don’t buy how 28 is considered the beginning of peak age for a player by everyone here…except when it’s Delmon Young, and then it’s “He’ll never be this good again!” Bottom line is, if we expect a normal career trajectory from him, we’re not out of line to expect some progression.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

22 is peak age for defense

I just really doubt that someone who adjusts really slowly and judges balls really poorly is going to improve much at all due to familiarity with Target Field.

by DJL44 on Dec 11, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope you're right...

Imagine not having to spend money next offseason on the MI with as much free money as we should have after this season. A Liriano extension becomes a no-brainer, and we should have enough leftover to make a legitimate splash in FA.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not even predicting that one of them for sure works out

I am saying there’s a decent shot that one of Plouffe or Casilla can rise to the test and claim a long term spot at SS. I’d love it if they do, if not there are decent options on the FA market next year too. Reyes, Bartlett, Hardy (haha), Jimmy Rollins.

So yah I hope one of them works out. It’s happened before and it can happen again.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 9, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess I understand why people wanted to keep Hardy

I definitely don’t think Hardy is a bad player. But I mean, realistically, the Twins can’t keep anyone if they actually want to make a change. I think change is good. I think next year is shaping up to be very exciting.

I just wish people had a little more faith in the front office. It’s getting so negative around here, anytime the Twins make any changes.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Change is not always good.

What is the result? You never make a change unless you know with some degree of certainty what you are going to get. Making changes and hoping for the best is not a good strategy when it comes to running anything.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course change is not always good

But staying the same isn’t always good either, now is it?

Only making changes when you are certain of what you will get leads to little, if any, changes. You need to make changes in this game. It just ins’t realistic not to expect changes every year.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually have a philosophy about sports

that goes something like this: If your roster is exactly the same as it was last year, you’re screwed…no matter how successful you were.

Change is necessary.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

+ 1,000,000

Yes, exactly.

I think more speed will do BEAUTIFULLY for the Twins at Target Field. You can’t put more speed in the lineup if you don’t make changes to the lineup… There is no guarantees it will work, but it doesn’t mean you should be afraid to try.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying change is never good.

But change for change’s sake is never good. Changes I wished the Twins would make:

-Fix the outfield defense somehow

-Draft more infielders

-Find a RH bat to complement Kubel/Thome

-And for the love of God! Do something about the training staff. They always underestimate the severity of our player’s injuries or bring them back too early.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at the difference between the '26 and '27 Yankees sometime.

Somehow I think they’re happy they didn’t make many changes.

by timprov on Dec 10, 2010 1:09 AM EST up reply actions  

The 2010 Twins were not the 26 Yankees

And there’s no such thing as not making changes in this day and age.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

People have faith.

At least they should.

It doesn’t mean that when a bad trade happens they shouldn’t be displeased. Hardy was a premium defender at a premium position, which is what a lot of fans here are upset about. The FO sees his injury history and his paycheck and comes to a different conclusion.

Sometimes things get negative. I’m as big of a cheerleader for the Twins as anyone, but considering the way the playoffs went down and how parts of the fanbase valued Hardy, people probably have a sour taste in their mouths.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

As far as change goes...

…It’s hardly as if many posters here don’t understand the Twins should make changes. There were, what?, 75 fanposts on different ways to make the Twins a better team this season. As a whole, I can only think of 2 changes that caused much pushback at all. Hardy for minor league pitchers and Ramos for Capps.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah its not like they keep making lousy mistakes

Good trades:
Hardy for Gomez

Pavano for Pino (does anyone remember the outrage at losing Yohan Pino, hows he doing now?

Rauch for Mulvey

Fuentes for nothing

Questionable trades:
The return for Santana (although part of this turned into Hardy and Rauch)

Garza/Bartlett/Morlan (another player twins fans couldn’t believe we could give up on) for Young/Harris and Pridie. I will admit that the Twins will never get the better of this deal, but if Young just developes just a little more it won’t be a total loss

Capps for Ramos

Good FA signings
Hudson
Thome
Offering arb to Pavano last year instead of foolishly locking him up to a long term contract.

Plus they have fielded a consitent winner over the last 9 years, which tells me they have some idea of what they are doing.

Yeah I’m ready to give them the benefit of the doubt

by tc_brent on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Correction

Fuentes for Van Mil

"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin

by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 9, 2010 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know...

That was a pretty BIG return for the Angels.

(groan)

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 10, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

You're remarkably condescending

It is possible that people actually HAVE considered these issues you raise, and come to different conclusions.

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm the one who is remarkably condescending?

It just seems like everyone complains anytime the Twins make a move these days. Maybe that is a sign fans are over-estimating the Twins trading leverage? I dunno.

I have a little more trust in the professionals in the front office, I guess.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Anytime the Twins make a move?

Fuentes was a good one. Pavano, Rauch, Hudson, Thome, even Mahay the first time around—good moves.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I think what they are getting that is that..

…if there is a move the Twins make that is not universally loved, anyone who does not hate it is an idiot who does not understand WAR or defensive metrics and is an idiot.

For example, I liked the Capps for Ramos trade, so according to a large percentage of the fans here, I am an idiot who does not get baseball like our idiot GM.

Run baby run!

by darren004 on Dec 9, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly

and anytime the Twins make a good trade BS got lucky even though he clearly doesn’t understand WAR, FIP, UZR and such.

by tc_brent on Dec 9, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't remember seeing that.

And anyone who evaluates moves that way is wrong.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't ever recall reading anyone saying that BS got lucky.

He has made some very good moves (Pavano, most waiver pick ups, first Hardy deal). But he seems really inconsistent in evaluating a player’s worth.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions  

it is time for people to stop pretending this FO is anything...

different than what they are. I think that you can go to any member of the Twins FO and ask, what is your normal way of evaluating talent? and to a man they will all say traditional scouting methods. It’s not like this is news. That is the org they have built. that is what they will continue to do so long as BS and co are in charge.

ANd you know what? They have done a pretty remarkable job. Consistently winning,and generally finding talent everywhere; Player development, international markets, trades, FA’s.

They have also been very good about not giving up on talent they like.

Span
Kubel
Cuddy
Morneau to a certain extent
Duensing
Young
Valencia
Crain
are all guys who at one point or another looked like potential flops and have all turned out to be pretty good ball players.

So they have faith in Casilla =,more so than most, I think there track record should give them the benefit of the doubt in these situations.

by tc_brent on Dec 9, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Castro, Batista, Punto, Tyner....

all guys upon whom they wasted too much playing time.

You aren’t wrong; they are a good drafting and developing organization, and they generally scout well, but they aren’t immune from failure and mistakes

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

No team is perfect. No sane person is expects perfection out of the FO. But most of wish they would put more stock in using some more advanced metrics. If they did that, with our scouting and player development strengths we could become a truly elite team.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Blackburn contract, Harris contract, Punto.

He overvalued Capps (although that trade is at least acceptable to me), undervalued Hardy. The FO total lack of interest in a RH bat and interest in having both Kubel and Thome (essentially clones as far as the roster is concerned).

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Just because people disagree with you that doesn't mean you're an idiot.

There’s always a minority, and we’re all in one at one point or another. Don’t let it stop you.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Alot of this I think started with the whole “Fire Gardy” crowd being ostracized more or less. While I don’t think he should be fired I feel a few of them made some legitimate points, yet were the center of ridicule.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Unfortunately...

I feel some of that came about due to a couple pro-fire Gardy fanposts that ranked very highly on the unintentional comedy scale.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, I will give you that.

But I feel the well thought out and well written arguments were unfairly categorized as such. And I do find the lack of scrutiny placed on Gardy by some fans just as annoying as the fanposts written in text-speak.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course they could make some points

Because nobody is perfect.

You just have to be able to differentiate between the better and the bad. Gardy is in the better. That’s a good thing.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Fire Gardy?

Why would we fire him?
It’s that damn Gary that needs to get the boot!!!

"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin

by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 9, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

FIRE GARY!!11114e

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the derision comes from a select few people.

It’s easy to get caught up in something you feel strongly about.

But I hope we’re accomodating for most of the people that stop by.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

We just got all spoiled after that Pierzynski trade with the Giants

Now we need to get super over-paid for every trade or it’s a failure.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

We do or it is?

I disagree. A trade doesn’t have to be that lopsided (or lopsided at all) to be worthwhile. This one seems lopsided in the wrong direction.

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

And the timing, reasoning, really everything about it was illogical.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I never said a trade had to be lopsided to be worth it

I’m saying Twins fans thing trades are lopsided whenever they aren’t lopsided in our favor.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, I understand

I am trying to say that I think you are wrong. Most Twins fans do not think that. Many also don’t like this particular trade. That isn’t a contradiction.

You have made your feelings about this clear; for some reason you seem eager to criticize those who have a different opinion on it.

I say SHONDA you say WOLVES" SHONDA! WOLVES!

by Eric in Madison on Dec 9, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

+1,000,000,000,000

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

c'mon...

i don’t think anyone is criticizing you in particular, we are disagreeing with you the same as you are diagreeing with us. its a discussion.

by tc_brent on Dec 9, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

+ 1,000,000

I’m not attacking anyone. Just free to disagree!

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I think a trade

of a quality player AND CASH for a bag of ball is lopsided.

It’s not an effective salary dump, because we paid them. It wasn’t from a position of strength, because we have no one evidence of a player who can immediately fill in.

I don’t believe in making lateral trades. Team chemistry matters. If you know the guys you’re next to, you’re more likely to fight for them. Signing Yoshi was an improvement in all the ways people want the team improved (including me) at least potentially. Trading Hardy helped nothing.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 9, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You're forgetting that they also too our FAR over-paid Brendan Harris

Might explain the extra cash, no?

I’d pay someone to take Brendan Harris, personally.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Not when we're already trading

a quality shortstop for 2 players who are irrelevant to any realistic plans for this season, and probably ever.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 9, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

FAR overpaid

By $2M total. This is less than the cost of a top draft pick flaming out. It’s peanuts. Absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. If I was Bill Smith and this was my biggest mistake I’d be ecstatic.

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Signing Yoshi

Was a great move. I was upset about losing Hudson until Bill Smith pulled that one out.

I just don’t get why Casilla couldn’t be a good utility infielder for a year. As-is they’re an injury away from a gaping hole in the lineup.

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I was on board with basically everything they did last offseason

I really didn’t even hate the Johan trade that much.

This trade just didn’t make sense. And it’s not because of Alexi Casilla.

It’s because they took a positive asset and turned it into a couple of non-prospects.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t expect fans, even smart, intense fans to understand all the advanced metrics and junk. It’s nerd stuff. If you want to have an argument about a player and you call “no nerd stats!” I think that’s totally legit. Seriously, I do.

But the front office gets different standards. I expect the front office to understand everything that has a reasonable chance of providing insight on the millions of dollars they hand out to players, especially nerd stuff. Any halfway reasponsible business would, and certainly any business that sucks in the tax dollars they do should. They don’t need to run their business by the stuff, and they obviously have done a ton of things right without it, but I think they’re just willfully ignorant if they ignore it.

by Luke in MN on Dec 9, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm kind of an anti-stats person

Stats measure past performance. They don’t measure future performance. Any day a player can outperform his stats—because anyway any of us can become better at what me do.

That’s how I like to see baseball.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

AnyDAY, at what WE do. Sorry for the type-os—on the small laptop keyboard.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous

Can your eyes see the future?

Seriously, you’re saying stats are bad because they don’t measure future performance?

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. No thing or person can predict the future, until a time machine is invented.

Yet stats are essential to identify past performances and set expectations for future performs. Its all about mitigating risk and utilizing your assets and investing to the best of your ability. Stats are the embodiment of reality.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

future performances*

Again, I want an edit button!

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't entirely agree

I don’t think anybody but the best of nerds needs to be able to derive an advanced metric, but a working knowledge of what most of the metrics are trying to get at doesn’t take much more than a google search.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

This makes it even MORE frustrating

that the FO ignores these things.

Even if they think they’re all bull shit, there are plenty of FOs that don’t!

Other teams are snatching up the prominent sabermetricians to help with this stuff.

So, even if they see Hardy as not worth 6 mil, they should be able to go to fangraphs and see that Other teams probably view him as worth more like 12-16 million, and HOLD OUT FOR A BETTER OFFER!

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

+1,000,000,000,000

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

You know what? +

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

If my GM only made decisions based on what Fangraphs says, I would want a new GM.

If you think there is even 1 GM who would value JJ Hardy as worth 12 million, then I weep for the team that has him as a GM.

I am not saying ignore advanced Metrics, I am saying it is not the end-all be-all and every decision should be based on numbers…

Run baby run!

by darren004 on Dec 10, 2010 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Who asked for 12mil?

We could’ve kept him for half that this season and given Yoshi a year to settle in.

Or we could’ve got more in return than a used piece of gum if we really needed to trade him.

But this fails as a salary dump even.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Hardy had a WAR of 2.4

Average value of WAR is $4.5M, so 2.4*4.5 = $10.8M

My numbers seem to be different, but I’m pretty sure that’s where this was coming from.

by Caleb A on Dec 10, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I know he was in theory WORTH that.

But the max we would’ve needed to actually keep him was 6.5mil. Which is actually a bargain for an ‘average’ everyday shortstop.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

that's half of it

Okay, I get that sometimes you have to make changes to get better. And this was a change, yes. But where’s the part where we got better?

by by jiminy on Dec 10, 2010 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

He didn't out-perform Hardy.

Casilla wasn’t terrible this year. In general he showed improvement, especially earlier in the year when he was relied upon to fill in and kept getting on base. His 1.1 WAR in 69 games isn’t bad, but Hardy more than doubled that with 2.4 WAR in 101 games.

by Jesse on Dec 9, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

And the way he played the second half proved he was healthy and his swing was fixed.

I was expecting him to have a career year next year.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, you'll win this argument, because I don't really like stats

But personally, I felt Alexi really stepped it up this year like I’ve never seen him do before. Particularly in the later half.

I know that because I just speak of my personal opinions based on actually watching every game, I have no statistical support for this. But I really do feel Alexi is finally ready for a bigger role.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

bigger role

How about primary utility infielder – he’ll get 400 ABs and contribute everywhere by not being Matt Tolbert or Nick Punto. It isn’t a federal crime to have a GOOD utility infielder.

by DJL44 on Dec 9, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I get they cleared a lot of salary room...

but I will not be the only one who is stunned if Casilla comes close to the .304/.363/.442 slash lines that Hardy put up the second half of the season.
Hardy is due for a huge year if he stays healthy. Casilla has never put up anything like a .805 OPS. That said, I rather like Casilla. Just cannot see that downgrading such an important position is wise.
Another thing… Gardy always said he was playing Punto because good defense was so important. Important enough to bench guys who were hitting 40 points higher than Punto. How did ‘speed’ suddenly become more important than good defense?

"You got to be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." - Yogi Berra

by Marv_MN on Dec 9, 2010 8:39 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

+1

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 9, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

oh, but you miss the Gardy mindset on this

If you stay back and use a strong arm to get outs, you’re not a ‘good defender’ in the mid inf to him.

You have to ‘hustle’ and charge the ball. Even if the only reason you do it is your arm is popcorn and can’t make a throw from the hole unless it’s a catcher running.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 9, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone else feel our FO is too closed door?

Before you all jump all over me, I love the fact we are a quiet FO, but could we be too quitet? There is a difference.

I’m not asking for the Rangers/Yanks/Red Soxs type of front office who connected themselves to everyone or a GM like Kevin Towers who is 100% public with everything he does. I’m not asking for players names or deals we are working on, but would the most basic of ideas to what they are thinking hurt? Would it really give too much away if they said our pay-roll will be around X million next year, we feel Y area needs to be worked on, and we have targeted at least one big name player (with out giving a name)?

I feel people are so upset with the Hardy trade because we don’t know whats going on. All we see is competeing team taking a salary dump and getting minor league RPs, that wont help the team this year, while every other team is getting better. Through the four days of the Winter Meetings we have only heard about Hardy, wanting Pavano back (who after Lee signs price tag will go up), maybe trading Slowey, and looking into Uehara (who we didn’t get). Thats it unless I missed something.

Once again, I DON’T WANT A PUBLIC FO! I just don’t want to be left in the dark with out having any idea whats going on too.

by cmb0252 on Dec 9, 2010 8:57 PM EST reply actions  

Balance?

You want a balance between all and nothing? Hmmm… seems reasonable.

"You got to be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." - Yogi Berra

by Marv_MN on Dec 9, 2010 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Besides a pay roll number

they have been somewhat open. They said they were focused on upgrading team speed. They did. They mentioned that they are trying to bring Pavano back. Pavano is the 2nd biggest pitching free agent on the market. If you were hoping they would be linked to Lee, Werth, Crawford, et al… well, it just wasn’t gonna happen.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Gardy said he wanted to inject more speed into the line-up. Not the FO unless I missed something.

by cmb0252 on Dec 9, 2010 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

You may be right...

I thought Smith said something as well. Frankly, I’m too lazy to look.

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Bill Smith

has been using “speed” as one of the reasons behind the Hardy trade. Although I don’t know that he talked about it until the trade was imminent. But it’s been mentioned.

by Anjemon on Dec 10, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Smith said he was backing Gardy's wishes

I believe it was mentioned in his post-trade comments, although not sure about that. The official rationale for getting rid of Hardy is to upgrade team speed and maybe defense – it sounds like the Twins don’t value Hardy’s defense at all, to the point that they think Casilla is better.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 10, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

So...I'm thinking back on shortstops Gardy would've hated

Roy Smalley (All Star and a pretty darn good hitter, still owns 5 of the best seasons for any Twins’ shortstop @ the plate)
Greg Gagne (who was quite possibly the best shortstop in the AL not named Cal Ripken for a while)
Christian Guzman (might explain how he left when he did—right when he discovered a bat)

Shortstops he would’ve loved:
Houston Jiminez—who personally bombed us out of winning the division in 84.
Pat Mearas (best known for being the man who made the last out in David Wells’ perfect game).
and of course: LNP, Casilla, and the shortstops he’s chosen over Hardy.

hmm…which list would you take?

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not yet convinced of Gardy’s love for Casilla. He grew tired of Hardy and likely views Casilla as the next best available option.

That said, I agree that Gardy probably would have liked/did like shortstops drafted by the Twins (Jiminez, Mears, Hocking, Plouffe?) and probably would have not liked/did not like shortstops acquired from outside the organization (Smalley, Gagne, Guzman, Bartlett, Hardy). There’s obviously more to it than that, but it seems like kind of a pattern.

by Brad B. on Dec 10, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Although he loves Punto, so what the eff do I know.

by Brad B. on Dec 10, 2010 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Gardy didn't like Guzy or Mearsy

Really, Gardy has only liked Gags, Castro and Punto at short. He benched both Castro and Punto numerous times. He was third base coach for Gags, whom he liked for the speed and hustle. He didn’t like Mears. He liked Hocking. He didn’t like Guzy, except for his potential, because he seemed disinterested a lot of the time. He didn’t like Bartlett. He didn’t like Hardy. He is not all that happy with Casilla, but he knows him well enough to have more confidence in him than Hardy.

Gardy has really high standards for shortstops. That might be why he’s had seven starting shortstops in eight years. If Casilla fails, it will be a while before they find a guy Gardy is happy with. That’s the biggest risk here. Plouffe? Maybe. De Los Santos? He fits the mold, but he can’t hit much. Dozier? Possibly. Long term, we’re probably talking about Polanco, who’s five years away.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

rec'd

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 9, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Always a classic...

But it is only 8!! Well, unless you’re Jesse of course. He’s got no excuse!

by archie2227 on Dec 9, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Your face.

Is wrong.

On the internet.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 10, 2010 8:31 AM EST up reply actions  

My reaction to the trade

At first I hated it. I posted on Gleeman that his spin should be “how many MVP votes will Hardy get next year?”

But then I started to think about it. Casilla was being groomed as a perfect replacement for Castillo, only younger. I think it is good to give him a starting job.

And nishioka looks like he will be a high average, decent OBP guy who will bring a new dynamic ( and a Japanese following) to this team. They just posted $5mm for this guy—he’s going to start and be good for the next three years at least—and cheap, too.

To the FO, keeping Hardy just muddied the waters. How can you keep three players you want to start for two positions? Sure, Hardy might be a bit better than Casilla, but he’s only a one-year solution and we actually want to see if Casilla can be as good as he may be.

I understand the frustration—a year ago I was ecstatic to land Hardy…I didn’t really believe it would happen. But I understand why they did this. And to repeat myjah’s line, the Twins have a potentially exciting, young, longterm keystone combo locked in cheaply for at least three years.

For all of the posters who have lamented starting the year with two unproven players as key parts of the team—come on. The Twins have regularly started recent (division-winning) years with black holes at 2 or more positions.
Casilla-Nishioka is far from that.

So, would I have rather they focused on improving outfield speed or going after Webb or Greinke? Probably. But I don’t think I hate this move, and it may wind up working out well.

by AM. on Dec 9, 2010 9:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I understand what they were trying to do but dont get it at all.

My guess is they got rid of Hardy because he is too much of a variable. Look at Joe Crede, the guy was awesome when he played; unfortunately it was only a couple times a week. Hardy hasn’t had 100 hits since 2008; accumulating only 91 in 101 games last year. His walk rate was down last year and his BA was only .268 despite having the best BABIP of his career (.299). He has injury problems already and is getting to the age where that problem wont get any better. Most projections had him making 6-7 million in 2011. Thats a lot of cheddar for a player bats .270 100 games a year. Given these facts, I could understand why the twins would want to go in a different direction at SS.

The empuzzlement lies in the direction they went. They replaced high-risk Hardy with off-the-chart-risk yoshi and we’re-pretty-sure-he-cant-start Casilla. I find it hard to believe that the savings (6ish million) is worth the downgrade.

After looking over the evidence, I am fairly certain that reason is one of the two scenarios:

1. The twins are going to use the extra cash to pick up a real stud. Not an OCabby-type player but a bonafide star.

2. After being swept by the yankees yet again, the heartbreak was too much for the twins management and they developed a raging crack addiction to get over the pain.

by Codypc21 on Dec 9, 2010 9:51 PM EST reply actions  

I still predict the trade was to free up cash for Pavstache

Hopefully not for an overpay though.

This was a triumph
I'm making a note here - huge success

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 9, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I like it...

a downgrade so we have the money to make a lateral move.

by Codypc21 on Dec 9, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Anything we pay over 1yr 5mil+incentives

is overpaying.

We’ve got 4 clones of Pavstache…only younger, already. And if it means trading Slowey, who’s ‘younger’…facepalms again

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 9, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree with that completely

No one on this team had a year last year like Pavano’s. Duensing doesn’t project as nearly as effective. Personally, I think something like 2 yrs, 16 mil is about fair.

That being said, Hardy at 1 yr, 6.5 mil >>>>>>>>>Pavano at 2 and 16.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Dec 9, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

He had a good year last year, yes

though his peripherals say he got lucky. He also has a history of being a yo-yo pitcher.

So if he had a good year last year, what does that mean this year will be? I could stomach 2yr/13mil. But this 10mil rubbish we keep hearing is absurd. His primary value is as an inning eater. But when you have 4 cloned ‘control’ pitchers already, why do we need an inning eater?

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure our June/July stretch last year

convinced me we need an innings eater. When 4 of our starters get shellacked and leave the game in the early innings, you need someone who can be a rock. And last year, Pavano was the rock.

by Anjemon on Dec 10, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes, that was last year

at least 1 of those starters was hurt then,

But again, you’re paying a yo-yo. And you’re paying him on the HIGH end.

by Shawn Gillogly on Dec 10, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Either #2

Or this was done just to appease Gardy

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions  

One scary thing about the Hardy trade

Getting Punto back wouldn’t be an unreasonable move considering the new infield situation.

by dontlookback on Dec 9, 2010 11:09 PM EST reply actions  

Facepalm

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Novice at best

And I bow to the superior knowledge on this blog. That being said:
1) Many are oversensitive to dissenting opinions. We are all pretty civil.
2) I gotta believe BS does not make decisions in a vacuum. He has TK and Terry Ryan for sure and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t have a nerd or two working advanced metrics.
3) I share myjah’s trust in the FO and optimism as well. What else am I supposed to do?
4) I hope beyond hope that “we” are less informed than the FO and that we are responding accordingly.
5) Wish we’d have gotten more for Hardy.
6) Jesse’s responses are always classy
7) Where the hell is Less cowbell, more’neau
8) I need add the word “empuzzlement” to my regular vernacular.
It’s been fun reading you guys.

by z-squad on Dec 9, 2010 11:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions   3 recs

Speaking of less cowbell, where is Montana?

Hibernating for the winter?

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I shoulda seen that one coming. Doh

But seriously either he’s hibernating, busy with his sheep, or busy running his flag business.

"FTYITAWAB" -less cowbell, more 'neau

by d-mac on Dec 10, 2010 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

So now there's talk of getting rid of Slowey as well?

Why don’t the Twins just rip my heart out and do a little jig on it?

Good lord.

俳句!

by fischean on Dec 10, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think it'd be a good idea

If it means that it’s Pavano and not a younger pitcher that would coming in. Who knows how much longer Pavano is going to last. I don’t think getting old pitchers and trading young pitchers is a good idea.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on Dec 10, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

That's my thought as well.

I’m seeing a big regression from Pavs this year (though I’d like to be wrong about that), so yeah…don’t get rid of Slowey. When he’s healthy, he’s pretty good.

俳句!

by fischean on Dec 10, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

This isn't too surprising

Even if they don’t bring back Pavs. They have Wimmers and Gibson almost ready. The signs have been pointing to Slowey as the odd man out.

by Stefa on Dec 10, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd say with that scenario, 2012 yes, but not for 2011.

I don’t think Gibson should be up before mid-season this year. Plus, I’d like Gibson to be in the pen to start out, if possible. If one of our other starters is sucking it up in 2011 then I’d be fine with throwing him in the rotation without easing him into the majors.

I just don’t think Gibson is going to make a huge impact next year (if they do it my way = mid-season callup to the pen), to be able to get rid of a young starter. 2012 anything can happen and we should have a surplus of starters with Gibson officially joining the rotation for good.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on Dec 10, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I also worry it might be selling low on him

I think he could be very good still. Though that is probably the homer in me. I followed him in the minors and was so excited for his MLB debut. Last year he was all kinds of off. Though there’s always the risk he is never going to do what I think he’s capable of, and if we keep him another year, potential trade partners will discover that right along with us…

by dctwin on Dec 10, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

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