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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Twins 2010 Winter League Success Stories

Roger does a fantastic job of rounding up reports on the minor leagues each week, but I wanted to take one last run through the Winter Leagues to highlight a few of our best and brightest. 

GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
VWL - Justin Huber 21 78 11 22 4 1 3 19 10 18 1 0 .282 .385 .474

Justin won't be back with the Twins this season, as he's off to enjoy some time in Japan, but it's worth noting that he did have a good few games with the Aragua Tigers.  Some of that success is no doubt due to the fact that he was a 28-year old playing with a bunch of teenagers and guys in their early 20's, but it's better having the results you "should" have than under-performing.

GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
VWL - Dustin Martin  44 151 22 45 9 0 6 25 25 37 5 3 .298 .395 .477

Martin, who turns 26 this spring, also played for the Aragua Tigers and had himself one hell of a winter.  While he mostly played corner outfield for Rochester last season, he has spent time in center as well.  It's not likely, considering that the competition in Winter Ball isn't on-par with triple-A competition, but if Martin comes out hot next month he might compete for that fifth outfielder spot.

Right now, if anyone has a chance, Jacque Jones probably has a more realistic shot of making the 25-man roster than Martin.  He'll have to excel.

More after the break...

Star-divide

GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
AFL - Chris Parmelee 21 80 10 20 8 2 4 21 11 24 1 1 .250 .337 .550

Over in the Arizona Fall League, Parmelee was a run-producing machine, driving in a run per game as 60% of his hits went for extra bases.  Again, it's a small sample, but this is pretty much what we're looking for from the prep draft pick.  Parmelee will turn 22 later this month, and should get a big chance to prove himself in double-A this year.  His upside is probably an Adam Dunn/Nick Swisher type of hitter, but as we all know there's plenty of value there.

GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
VWL - Wilson Ramos 54 208 38 69 14 1 12 49 21 41 0 0 .332 .397 .582

I hate to say anyone in the Winter Leagues is playing over their head, so let's just say that Ramos had one hell of an off-season.  Another member of the Tigers, Ramos is the pride of Minnesota's catching prospects and, at 22, is on the verge of giving the organization some positional excess.  Even without these glowing Winter League numbers he'd be competing for the backup catcher job with Drew Butera, although some believe that Butera already has the edge on the role since Ramos still needs to experience triple-A pitching.  Butera, who has no offense to speak of (.560 OPS in Rochester in '09), is considered to be who he can be already; Ramos can afford to be brought along slowly for development.

W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
AFL - Alex Burnett  0-0 10 0 0 0 3 0 10.2 6 4 4 0 10 11 3.38 1.50

Burnett rocked in the Arizona Fall League this year, converting all three of his save opportunities which might be a precursor for his future role with the Twins.  He did have a few issues with control, walking almost a batter per inning, but he kept the ball from leaving the park and managed to mitigate damage for the most part.  Burnett is just 22 but should see time with the Twins next season if he doesn't get a cup of coffee this year.

W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
VWL - Jhon Garcia  1-1 3 3 0 0 0 0 11.0 10 6 6 1 2 9 4.91 1.09

A pitcher for the Aragua Tigers, the 22-year old right-hander was signed as an undrafted free agent prior to the 2008 season.  He's efficient and is known for his control, but his nine strikeouts in eleven innings is a little misleading as to how strong of a strikeout pitcher he truly is.

W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
DWL - Francisco Liriano  0-0 3 3 0 0 0 0 11.2 8 2 2 0 2 17 1.54 0.86

The first of two guys on this list from the Dominican Winter League, we've all heard the amazing stories of Liriano's fastball (Now With Velocity!) and the return of his nasty slider.  Obviously his playoff numbers aren't included, but in three starts for Leones del Escogedo he was clearly on top of his game.  Have the rumors of his demise been greatly exaggerated?

W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
DWL - Jose Lugo 3-1 15 0 0 0 0 0 13.1 11 4 3 0 5 13 2.03 1.20

A teammate of Liriano's, Lugo turns 26 in May.  He's been known to strike hitters out (56 in 58 innings with the Rock Cats last year, and then 11 in nine innings with the Red Wings), but he lacks control.  Lugo was a Rule 5 draft pickup from the Royals in 2008.  It's likely he's just roster filler at this point, but he had a good stint in Escogedo.

Other notables who struggled...

Danny Valencia:  Between Mayaguez and Puerto Rico, our future third baseman struggled to a .222/.278/.367 line in 24 games.

Alexi Casilla:  It wasn't all bad this winter for Alexi, but the non-playoff game totals read like a nightmare--.219/.288/.288.

Rene Tosoni:  24 strikeouts in 87 at-bats, and a .643 OPS.

Angel Morales:  Our young, toolsy outfielder didn't bash at all, managing just one extra base hit in 21 games.

Mike McCardell:  Mike is hopefully going to be a good pitcher, but he did get lit up a bit.  Seven runs in 8.2 innings, in spite of an impressive 11 strikeouts.

Deolis Guerra:  The last of The Santana Return (not counting J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez of course) is still just 20 years old.  He struck out 12 and walked just four in 16 innings, but couldn't keep hitters off base (literally or figuratively) as opponents cracked 20 hits off him.  Add a trio of wild pitches to that bunch, and it wasn't the most successful Winter League stint for Guerra.

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Martin

Is not on the 40 man roster. So he would need an amazing spring to make the 25 man team.

by clutterheart on Feb 10, 2010 10:11 AM EST reply actions  

This is true.

I didn’t think of this, but Jacque isn’t either. If either of them somehow make the team, we’ll have another “who gets the axe” conversation.

by Jesse on Feb 10, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

"who gets the axe"

These conversation are great. I am glad the Twins forced themselves to cut bait on some guys. Maybe my memory is too short term, but I can’t remember so many decisions in one offseason.

by clutterheart on Feb 10, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions  

not necessarily

It depends on if the Twins decide to carry a backup CF. If they do they’ll need to open a spot on the 40man regardless of who they bring in. If Martin is the best option he should make the 25 man. I think dropping Pridie was a stalling move to give the team time to try and figure out what to do with Casilla and/or Perkins.

by Jon Kammerer on Feb 10, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Your numbers on Morales are wrong...

…he hit as you said before Christmas. He improved greatly after christmas, hitting .295/.358/.311 in 61 at bats. His team did not make the playoffs. The only negative for him this winter would be the lack of power, which could be expected hitting against pitchers with a lot more experience and age than he. He did continue his improvement with strikeouts following Christmas also.

by roger13 on Feb 10, 2010 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

I didn't put numbers down for Morales,

just said he had one XBH in 21 games, which he did in those 61 at-bats.

by Jesse on Feb 10, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

You are right...

…and I realized that as soon as it was written. Your comments however, tended to make it seem that he had a disappointing winter and the reality is far from it. He didn’t get a hit until his 10th or 11th at bat, but considering he was only getting one or two at bats a week it had to be hard. After Christmas he played regularly and his average was way above .300. He also cut down on his strikeouts after Christmas. Considering he was continually facing pitchers that were AA, AAA and with some major league experience, hitting .295 on the season was wonderful.

by roger13 on Feb 10, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

That's fair enough.

I really didn’t put much context into these to see who had better or terrible finishes.

Besides, I like Morales. Hopefully you’re right and it was just an early slump against older and more experienced pitchers. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does in double-A this season.

by Jesse on Feb 11, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope he ends up in AA

But I expect him to start at Fort Myers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Wilson Ramos

Walks are up, strikeouts are a bit down as well. Power looked great. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he has an absolutely monster season in AAA.

by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 10, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

That would be amazing.

It’d be interesting, if this does happen, to see how the Twins fit him into the mix, or what they do with him.

by Jesse on Feb 10, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

He was just added to teh 40 man, correct?

If that is the case he has 3 years left that we can option him. He could be Joe Mauer insurance in the event of injury, or if they seriously want to move him, Ramos gives you the ability to do it. Otherwise, he could be a very coveted trade piece to use to fill a long term hole in the near future.

by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 10, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

This either means...

Either Mauer switches positions within 2 years (very doubtful, barring an injury), or Ramos is involved in a big trade. Either way, Ramos could be HUGE.

by bbeeck on Feb 10, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think there is any problem with having 2 legitimate catchers on the roster

They can both start half the games, and start the other half at DH. This is assuming, of course, Kubel isn’t here anymore…

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think by the time Ramos reaches the majors

he’ll be a DH with the Twins. He projects as a decent hitting catcher, but not a plus major league DH bat, IMO. Needs to improve SO/BB to get there…

by Adam Peterson on Feb 13, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Butera vs. Ramos
some believe that Butera already has the edge on the role since Ramos still needs to experience triple-A pitching

Gardy said otherwise at TwinsFest. I can’t find the quote, but here’s a paraphrase: Butera’s a catch-and-throw guy, and that’s all he does well. Ramos is that plus he’s a big strong kid who can hit and hit for power. That would give him a power bat from the right side off the bench. He said wouldn’t hesitate to take him north if the front office lets him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 10:30 AM EST reply actions  

Fair enough, I can live with that.

That’s the way I’d rather see the team go because it makes us a better squad, it just made sense to me that Gardy wanted to give Butera a chance…and that’s why he’s still around.

That’s me putting 2 and 2 together to get 5.

by Jesse on Feb 10, 2010 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Needs to play every day

I can’t see them bringing up Ramos to sit on the bench. Butera, who cares if he rots on the bench.

by DJL44 on Feb 10, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

It would only be short term

and being up with the squad for a while might be just as good for him as playing every day. Give him a taste of the big leagues, and give him that extra motivation to get back there as soon as possible. He’d also get to see what Joe Mauer does on a daily basis. That couldn’t hurt.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

My thinking as well

I don’t think you’ll rot on the bench as Joe Mauer’s caddy with major league coaches to smooth out your rough edges, at least for a month or so. And, who knows? Mauer made the jump from AA. Maybe he’ll show something and take more DH time against lefties, or let Mauer DH more against lefties and have Ramos catch.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

How does

Morales fit into all of this. With Thome as a “no D” bench player it’s hard for me to see us carrying three catchers. Is the conversation only referencing future seasons, the supposed recovery period for Morales’ surgery, or now?

by z-squad on Feb 10, 2010 10:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Morales irecetnly had failry complicated wrist surgery

The assumption is, he won’t be ready until May 1, since he’ll miss all of spring training. The Twins claim otherwise, but he has said himself that he doesn’t expect to be able to take the field until April 1. He’ll need a month of rehabbing in Fort Myers until May 1. So what do the Twins do until then? Unless they sign a minor league free agent like Jose Molina (my preference) it’s between Butera and Ramos. Once Morales is ready, he assumes the back-up job and whoever makes the big club out of spring training goes down to AAA until September.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Seems a waste

To use an option on Ramos and to start the clock ticking for what conceivably could be 10-20 ABs. Especially considering we’ve assumedly got nothing but time while Mauer holds court. Why rush him?

by z-squad on Feb 10, 2010 10:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Why? To win

If Ramos gives us one more win than Butera would, it would be worth it, considering that the Twins have either won or lost the division by one game three out of the last four years.

Besides, 30 days is not a big deal in the scheme of things with service time. Worrying about service time rather than wins is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Winning pays the bills.

And I wouldn’t worry about an option. He’ll likely be the primary back-up next year, if not later this year. And he’ll never need to be sent down again.

The only legitimate reason to hold him back is seasoning. But the AAA season doesn’t start until a week after the major league season. So he’ll actually get almost as much seasoning by staying with the big club for a month than a few extra starts in AAA.

And I wouldn’t worry about Butera’s cup of coffee. He’ll get it somewhere, if not with the Twins.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and he'll need to be optioned anyway, cause he's on the 40-man.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

30 days could be a big deal with service time

since that, plus whatever other time he gets could mean “Super 2” status in a couple years.

But with this team where we are right no(, as a division contender, I’d rather have Ramos in the majors to start the season than Butera any day. As you say, could be a 1-2 win difference.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 13, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The option is not the issue with Ramos

He’ll spend some time in the minors regardless. With Ramos, the issue is probably service time. Do you add two months of service time for Ramos as a backup to Mauer, or do you eat some of Butera’s time until Morales is back?

by Adam Peterson on Feb 13, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Why would Molina want that?

Would you sign for a team that only needs you for a month if you’re Jose Molina?

by DJL44 on Feb 10, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think it would just be for a month

We would give him an option to compete for the back-up job. Of course, he would get it for the first month. Butera would be DFAd. Ramos to AAA. Then, when Morales is ready, depending on how Molina does, he would either go to the majors or AAA. If he goes to AAA, Ramos goes to AA. If Molina stinks or Morales shines (or both), Molina gets DFAd and Morales gets the regular back-up job.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Just wait for the waiver wire

Some warm body will come across it before opening day.

by DJL44 on Feb 11, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Rob Bowen

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Jon Rauch

He is an extension of the Santana trade as well.

by bgkrenz on Feb 10, 2010 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

Right

So we got Rauch, Hardy and Guerra for Santana. If Guerra breaks out, it’s not a bad trade.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions  

And 2 years of Gomez wasn't nothing either.

His jumping off the plate in game 163 was probaby worth about 1 Santana start by itself.

by Luke in MN on Feb 10, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

It was a good trade for both teams

We had two center fielders. Milwaukee had two shortstops. But, of the two, Hardy is the better overall player, at least right now. Gomez might become a star in a couple of years. He might stay about what he is. Hardy might return to stardom. He might stay where he is. Hardy is more likely to return to form than Gomez is of becoming a star.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

I hear people say things like “well what if Hardy doesn’t bounce back?” or “what if Gomez reaches his potential?”

Obviously we don’t KNOW what is going to happen, we just have to make the best decision with the information we have. It is MUCH more likely for a guy to return to a level he played at 2 and 3 years ago than it is for a guy to improve substantially. Gomez could turn into Carlos Beltran, but the chances are much higher that Hardy turns into 07/08 Hardy.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Probably will turn out to be a good trade for both teams. But it’s much more likely that Hardy returns to 3+ WAR form at SS than Gomez suddenly becomes Carlos Beltran.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 13, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

If your estimation of liklihood is true

then the Twins win the trade. I suppose the flip side of that is if Gomez can be reached by the hitting coach or someone else and hits decently, then it would be a big win for the crew. Baseball is filled with fans and apparently GMs who think this or that young player can make significant changes, but it usually doesn’t happen.

by Salty on Feb 11, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Gomez's upside is somewhere between Cameron and Hunter

So it’s a good trade for the crew. The only question is, when will he turn the corner? Hunter did in his age 24 season.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Liriano

Best stat from that line is… 17:2 K to BB ratio. Liriano showed glimpses of his dominant stuff last year but either couldn’t locate his fastball or just was crazy inconsistent. Hopefully this is a great sign..

by 7Twins7 on Feb 11, 2010 12:03 AM EST reply actions  

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