How Much Does Jim Thome Improve the Twins?
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 3:01 PM EST
in By the Numbers
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Print...and how much could we improve by signing Orlando Hudson?
In December, I posted an article with my "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) projections for the expected Twins 2010 roster at the time (including Carl Pavano signing and the J.J. Hardy trade), as well as a promise to revisit these projections as additional signings and roster moves occurred. Now that DH Jim Thome is in the fold, how much did the Twins improve themselves? Was it worth the $1.5M plus incentives?
Based on a number of roster and playing time assumptions described after the jump, I project that the addition of Thome will add 1.3 wins to the Twins expected total, now up to 87.9 wins. At a generally accepted market rate cost per marginal win of over $4M, it appears to be a slam dunk that Thome's contract is worth the cost.
But should we be finished wheeling and dealing this off season? As I will discuss below (and as we all have discussed ad nauseum over the last few months), there are easy and relatively cheap opportunities to upgrade our infield and break through the 90 projected win threshold. According to my calculations, signing Orlando Hudson (+2.39 WAR), Felipe Lopez (+2.29 WAR) or Jose Lopez (+1.86 WAR) would all be significant improvements, especially considering the expected cost of less than $5M.
As the table shows below, I project the roster at this point to be about 1.4 wins better than it was in December. 1.3 wins are due to the Thome signing, as I'll explain below. The other 0.1 WAR improvement is due to dropping Bobby Keppel and replacing him with Clay Condrey.
| Date | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RP | Hit | Pitch | WAR | Wins | Notes |
| 10 Dec 2009 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 20.7 | 18.8 | 39.5 | 86.5 | Pavano, Bonser |
| 28 Jan 2010 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 22.0 | 18.9 | 40.9 | 87.9 | Thome, Condrey |
What do I project from Jim Thome? Last season, he got a total of 434 PA between the White Sox and Dodgers. Considering that over the last month with LA, he had a total of 17 PA (all pinch hitting appearances), he could easily have been around 500 PA if he had stayed in Chicago all season. I conservatively projected 400 PA at the DH spot, leaving room for Mauer and Kubel to get at bats when Thome rests. For wOBA, Thome has batted .370 and .367 the last two seasons. Since a .235/.235/.235 line in LA likely pulled his wOBA down a few points last year, I projected Thome at .370 this year. Not as conservative as most of my wOBA projections, but I also suspect that at 400 PA, Thome will have a lower percentage of his at bats against left handed pitching, which will bump his overall numbers a bit.
Obviously, Thome getting 400 plate appearances at DH will displace others at that position. In my previous projections, I expected Jason Kubel (375), Joe Mauer (150), Justin Morneau (75), and Brendan Harris (75) to split the team's DH appearances. With Thome around, I project that his 400 PA will displace all but 150 of Kubel's, and all of Morneau and Harris DH appearances. I believe Mauer will still get his DH time to rest his legs over the long haul. Considering that Kubel and Morneau are two of our best hitters, we would want to ensure that they get the same overall number of PA as before Thome. So their total PA are not affected by Thome, only the splits between different positions. The actual players affected by Thome getting a projected 400 PA at DH are:
- Luke Hughes: 150 PA backing up Morneau at 1B. With Morneau getting more time at 1B, and Kubel's extra OF availability allowing Cuddyer to backup 1B, Luke Hughes no longer projects to get time at 1B, injuries notwithstanding of course.
- Jason Pridie: 75 PA backing up Span in CF. Kubel's ability to play LF and RF without affecting the DH position means that Denard Span is now projected to get all of his time in CF.
- Matt Tolbert: 75 PA backing up Harris at 3B. Since we wouldn't expect Harris to get time at DH, he gets more time at 3B. Interesting, according to my projections, Tolbert actually outperforms Harris by about 1.4 WAR per 700 PAs, so this change affects projections in a negative way.
- Delmon Young: 55 PA as the every day left fielder. I was a bit surprised that my projections still gave Delmon 500 plate appearances in LF with Kubel moving from DH, but that's how it worked out.
You'll probably note that this adds up to 355 plate appearances compared to 400 for Thome. Where are the other 45? To put it simply, Thome's high OBP means the team gets more total plate appearances for the same total number of outs. Another advantage of not making outs.
Looking at the three most talked about options for infield additions, acquiring any of Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, or Jose Lopez would be a significant improvement for the expected cost. To keep the "what if" comparisons simple, I made the following assumptions. As a result of these two assumptions, the Twins improve by +0.65 WAR regardless of which of the three players are signed.
- Project each of the three players to get a total of 600 PA as the primary second baseman.
- Nick Punto becomes the primary backup at 2B (150 PA), SS (125 PA) and 3B (200 PA), replacing Casilla and Tolbert at all three positions.
- I'm not considering the potential trade pieces we'd lose by acquiring Jose Lopez. Too much speculation involved there.
The table below shows the projections for all three second baseman, the total WAR that they would contribute as an individual, and the total WAR improvement for the Twins as a result of signing. As you can see, Hudson and Felipe Lopez project pretty close to each other, with Jose Lopez a step behind.
| Player | PA | wOBA | Base Running | Def | WAR | Improvement |
| Orlando Hudson | 600 | .340 | 0.25 | (0.25) | +2.62 | +2.39 |
| Felipe Lopez | 600 | .330 | 0.25 | 0.25 | +2.52 | +2.29 |
| Jose Lopez | 600 | .330 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +2.09 | +1.86 |
Considering the expected cost to sign F.Lopez or Hudson as a free agent is less than $5M, either signing would be a smart move for the Twins in 2010. Jose Lopez is more questionable, considering the value we'd have to give up in a trade. In any case, it's obvious that the Twins have a number of options to further improve the roster for 2010. Whether we are willing to take on an additional $4-5M in payroll is another matter.
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Damn it Adam!
Now you have me drooling over when the Twins will finally pitch a contract at Hudson and he accepts. I think we can cross Felipe Lopez off that list, as they do “not like his defense”. Even though they trot Young and Harris out there everyday.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Exactly
I REALLY hope we are able to close on Hudson. Such an improvement…
I was surprised that Felipe Lopez came out so close to Hudson. Not really sure where we’re getting the “don’t like his defense” meme. He may be a guy where the metrics like UZR and the scouting don’t agree. Then again, he may simply be a guy who hasn’t won a gold glove based on reputation rather than performance, as he appeared to do last year.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Not from us
I think the TwinkieTown rank and file are fine with Lopez’s defense. Supposedly the Twins’ front office doesn’t like it (one of those “a source in the Twins front office says” type of things from a couple weeks ago), and they’re the ones making the actual decision.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
If the Nats sign Hudson, that leaves the Twins as the only F. Lopez fit
So perhaps they are just playing hard ball ont eh defense, and they’ll sign him for $2 mil plus incentives.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Rumors have tied him to Cardinals
waiting for Hudson to set the market.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I understand
wasn’t referring to any meme here at TT. Totally front office.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Great work
This is the stuff that makes you quietly the best blogger in the Twins blogosphere (after Jesse of course ;-)).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Thanks guys
I wish I had more time to post and update the ole software…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Can you send this to Billy Smith?
Maybe then he will sign/trade for one of these players. All along I have been hoping for Hudson for Felipe Lopez, and this just reinforces it in my mind. If we sign one of those two, or flip someone like Perkins/Casilla for Lopez, I like our chances this year. I mean I do now, but why not keep improving? The revenue from the new stadium is already coming in in form of season tickets, which I overheard a rep at Twinsfest saying is around 20,000 packages sold. So the support and revenue will be there, it’s just time to spend accordingly. I don’t know if I’m just being greedy or what, but let’s get this done!
The Twins have to be careful
because they don’t know how much they’ll get in revenue sharing next season, which is why they might not be as strong of a player for Hudson as we expect them to be. Because of a reduction in their bite of the revenue cookie next season, they might feel like they’re forced to offer Hudson just a one-year deal…and that might be a deal-breaker, even if we are the only competetive team showing interest.
Good Point
Ya, as much as I am hoping for them to sign Hudson, I don’t at all expect it. Besides the fact of the money, a signing of Hudson or Lopez would probably push Casilla off the roster, as I believe he is out of options. And although we can probably all agree that Hudson is the better player, we likely wouldn’t retain him, virtually trading a still decent prospect coming off a great winter league for a one year rental. Would the two wins or so be worth that? I’m not sure I guess…
I wondered about that as well
How much does a great playoff run in the DWL affect FO decisions? Do they want to give him one more shot? Will Gardy play him if they do? So many questions, so few answers. But I can say that if they sign Hudson or F. Lopez, Casilla is the one that goes, since he’d likely be gone when the 25-man roster is set anyway. If they trade him and an arm for J. Lopez, problem solved.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Roster squeeze
No room on the roster for 3 utility infielders.
Morales, Thome/Young, Punto would be the bench with one open spot. Would that go to Casilla, Tolbert or Pridie?
Pridie
The Twins need a defensive outfielder who can play center.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
How bad is Tolbert out there?
Are we sure Tolbert can’t play CF? He’d be pretty valuable if he can.
He's not good
Maybe in an emergency. But let’s say Span has a day-to-day injury that keeps him out for a weekend series. The Twins would be in a world of hurt.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
What about Punto
I remember him playing CF a few times, I wonder if he could pull it off for a few days here and there.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Please don't bring up that disaster again
It is my most painful regular season Gardy moment. Since you brought it up and it’s cathartic to write it:
In the seventh inning of a tie game at home, LeCroy doubles to lead off. I’m thinking, “OK, they’ll pinch run for him and put a play on.” I was half right. They put a play on without pinch running for him. (This was his last year as a Twin, when he was slower than Brian Harper.) Lew Ford tries to bunt him over, but fails and LeCroy is easily thrown out at third. It wasn’t that bad of a sacrifice. A little too much toward the pitcher, but just about any other runner would have made it anyway. When Lew gets back to the dugout, Gardy lets him have it for the bad bunt. To which, Lew mutters under his breath, “Well, if we had a pinch runner there, it would have worked.” Gardy explodes, benching Lew for the rest of that game and the next game.
Enter Punto to play center for Lew (this was when Hunter was out for the season with an injury and Lew was our only center fielder). The next half inning, Punto played two lazy liners in the gap into a double and a triple. The other team scored two runs and the Twins lost. The next game was even worse: Punto takes poor routes on several liners that any decent center fielder would have at least cut off, and the other team won handily. That was the end of the Punto experiment. Lew was back out there for the rest of the year.
Bottom line: Nick Punto is the worst center fielder I’ve seen in a Twins uniform since Bombo Rivera.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
At which point we call up Pridie.
Whether or not we keep Pridie on the active roster when we head north, we’d still be in a world of hurt if Span goes down with an injury.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 3, 2010 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
There's always Cuddyer...
He started two games in a row in center last year, you’ll recall. I’d guess he’s Gardy’s first choice in an emergency situation.
I still like the idea of a real backup centerfielder (I think it’s worthwhile for defensive replacements and to protect the DH), but the world wouldn’t end if they were without for just a couple days.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Yep
This smells to me like the third catcher concern all over again. Sure, I’d like to avoid having Cuddyer in center field, but we could always call up Pridie in a pinch. The only reason I’d prefer Pridie would be from a late inning defensive replacement perspective. We’d need to weigh that against having a (likely) more productive Tolbert or Casilla with the Twins.
Another consideration, if it comes down to Tolbert or Pridie being sent to Rochester, who’s preferable from a don’t block the prospects standpoint? Tolbert would probably block Dinkelman, Pridie would probably block Roberts or Martin.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 3, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
None of those guys are prospects
The guys you don’t want to block at AAA are Valencia, Plouffe, Tosoni and Ramos.
I don't agree
Cuddyer is better than Punto. But he’s still a first baseman masquerading as an outfielder. Maybe in an emergency, but not for multiple games in a row while Span is day to day. If Span lands on the DL, different story. But having no back-up would force them to turn a day-to-day injury into a DL stint.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also
It’s not like Pridie would have no role when there’s no injury. Let’s say you pinch hit Thome for Delmon. With Kubel as the DH, you can’t move him out there without losing the DH. And, if Thome succeeds, you want a better defender out there than Kubel. Enter Pridie. Even if you don’t pinch hit for him, I’d want a better fielder out there than Delmon in a save situation. That was basically Gomez’s role at the end of last year, and he got plenty of playing time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Good points regarding Pridie
with the Delmon – Thome situation. I could see that happening quite a bit.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 3, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Would probably be Pridie since he can play CF
but I’d be awfully tempted to play Span every day in CF and only rest him when/if we bring Pridie up and decide to go with 11 pitchers from time to time.
I’d love to be put in this situation though…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't rest Span much at all
But you do need somebody who can play center for the reasons I mention.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Coming off a great winter league???
Are we talking about the same Alexi? The same one that put up a .219/.288/.288 in 23 games during the DWL?
by Michael in N.Cali on Feb 2, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I think he did pretty well in the playoffs though. The problem with Alexi is that he’s always going to have these peaks and valleys, because his game is based almost solely on balls in play. When they are falling in, he looks like a decent player. When they aren’t, he doesn’t have enough power or pateince to fall back on, and he looks like a horrible player.
Small samples can be useful when you see a clear change in approach – the main reason why I’m excited about Liriano is the lack of walks, not his shiny ERA. The reason why Span’s sudden surge appeared (and turned out to be) the real thing was his new found patience at the plate. Alexi has done nothing to signal that he isn’t the exact same player he’s been for the last few years.
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 2, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Consistency is his problem. He’s all about confidence, which is very fragile.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He had a great playoff run (which is not in the stats you see)
He would have been the MVP if his team had won the championship game.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Awesome job, Adam.
I like the explaination of who will be losing playing time and why, but I still would be surprised if Delmon gets 500 plate appearances. Unless he bursts out of the gate at September speeds.
Comparing Punto, Harris and Tolbert to Hudson and Lopez (x2), what would their WAR be over 600 PAs each?
The spreadsheet breaks out on a per 700 PA basis, so here goes
At 2B:
Orlando Hudson (.340 wOBA, +0.25 BR, -0.25 Def): +3.05 WAR
Felipe Lopez (.330 wOBA, +0.25 BR, +0.25 Def): +2.95 WAR
Jose Lopez (.330 wOBA, 0.00 BR, 0.00 Def): +2.45 WAR
Nick Punto (.300 wOBA, +0.25 BR, +0.75 Def): +1.62 WAR
Alexi Casilla (.305 wOBA, +0.25 BR, -0.75 Def): +0.42 WAR
Matt Tolbert (.300 wOBA, +0.25 BR, -1.00 Def): -0.13 WAR
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I've been looking forward to this post
Great job Adam.
I just hope that the Twins at least OFFER either Hudson or Lopez a contract. If they turn it down, so be it. But I would love to know that the Twins at least made a play.
That's something they typically do not disclose if they fail to land a player
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Great job.
Now if only the Twins F.O. could see the logic. Also, Jose Lopez has a base salary of $2.75M this year (another possible $0.125M in performance bonuses) and a $4.5M ($5M if he reaches 500PA this yr) club option ($0.25M buyout) for next year. So he would come pretty dirt cheap depending on what it would cost us. I’m really rooting for Hudson though.
BTW, did you look at any numbers with Adam Kennedy? I’m curious to see if it would make any difference as far as numbers go.
by Michael in N.Cali on Feb 2, 2010 3:47 PM EST reply actions
I like Jim Thome and expect...
…his at bats will mostly enable the Twins to rest Morneau more often than in the past. That should enable Morneau to maintain his abilities through the entire year.
I don’t know where you got Hughes at first base from. To the best of my memory, I don’t recall Hughes ever playing first base. A lot of second early in his career, then mostly third except when they put him in left. Played mostly third again last season.
According to Luke's profile at thebaseballcube.com,
Hughes has played 5 games at first base in his minor league career.
Anybody can play first base
Its where players from other positions go when they get old. Thome didn’t play any 1B in the minors, either, but he ended up there when it was decided he couldn’t play 3B anymore.
:)
Just saying that if we really need to give Justin a breather, it could be almost anyone on the roster. The only restriction is that usually the player has to hit well enough to warrant playing there. But in a pinch, we could put anyone there. I’m sure Alexei Casilla or Nick Punto could field the position quite easily. :-)
Got Hughes at 1B from
my nether regions, I suppose. Couldn’t really put Cuddyer there given the OF situation. Could as easily have put Hughes at 3B and Harris at first I suppose. Moot point now.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Milestone Watch
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but Thome has 564 career HR’s. Barring an injury, its likely that he’ll match and surpass Killebrew’s 573 while in a Twins uniform.
Hudson
There’s a rumor floating around on mlbtradesecrets that the Nats have made Hudson an offer. $3MM with incentives to push it to $4MM.
http://blog.mlbsecrets.com/2010/02/rumors/orlando-hudson-rumors-hudson-controls-infielder-market/
Comments
Great work, as usual, Adam. Two observations on your analysis:
1) Do you think the Twins are playing coy with Thome’s playing time? That’s a lot more PA than I’d have guessed, based on their comments when he was signed – it looks like you have gone ahead with the Thome-Delmon platoon, giving Thome basically all the DH at-bats against righties, and maybe some extra.
2) Although you mentioned that it would be a great value to pick up any of the second base options, I don’t know whether it benefits the team from a financial perspective – if the Twins’ expected wins are already in the upper 80s, they probably have very little to gain from additional marginal wins in their weak division. 85 wins is a pretty good bet to win the AL Central, so there isn’t as much benefit to getting to 90, regardless of how good a deal the extra wins are.
As a fan, of course, I’m all for seeing them improve the team however they can; just trying to inject the soulless businessman’s perspective, for the sake of discussion.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I think the Twins will be favored to win the Central
Now I want to see them improve so they might have a chance to do some damage in the playoffs. You know, the important part of the season.
Save it for later
There’s always a chance at something like a “not much” for Akinori Iwamura deadline deal to bolster them for the postseason.
Take a chance?
Why take a chance on there being a potential deadline deal when there are relatively cheap and very fitting options available right now? It’s a buyer’s market right now. The Twins should take advantage of the opportunity to improve their club.
My partial response to this
is that, if the Twins have already pretty much locked up a shot for October in WAR, then anything they add on top oft this is being added with a view toward taking on LA or Seattle or Boston or New York or Tampa or…gulp…Texas…in the playoffs.
I think we already have enough as we are to win the division. But a better second baseman just makes us that much better, and means we’re better equipped for October.
re: thome playing time
The beauty is it will work itself out based on performance. Since most project Thome to be significantly better than Delmon, esp. versus RHP, it makes sense to project him for a fair number of PAs.
Projected wins have a pretty large variance
and we’re probably about 3 in front of the White Sox. I don’t know the numbers, but I bet going from 3 to 5 is pretty big in terms of playoff probability. I think 85-90 projected wins is the best time to be a buyer, from what I remember reading. I could be wrong about that though.
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 2, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Large variance
Definitely. Each player’s projection by itself is going to have some variance. Hopefully I’ve hit the weighted mean projection for each, but I don’t claim to be very good at projecting an individual player’s performance.
And you’re right. 85-90 wins is about the sweet spot when paying for an additional marginal win improves playoff (revenue) odds.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I was mostly playing devil’s advocate with my #2 comment, and you’re right that it’s foolish to assume victory with that small a margin. Also, while there’s lots of luck at play in the playoffs, it’s not entirely luck, and if a team in a near-guaranteed playoff spot can up their chances of advancing from, say, 50% to 55%, it might be worthwhile as well.
I’ve read the same about the best time to be a buyer of wins – that’s where each win produces the most addition revenue (although that is probably muted somewhat with the Twins since they have a new stadium, making attendance less volatile).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Answers, the best I can provide them
1. Yes, I think the Twins are intentionally understating Thome’s expected playing time. I do not think he will end up getting scrub time, 200 PA or so, it just doesn’t make sense. He was easily on a pace for 500 PA before he was shipped to LA and pinch hitting duty. No injuries as far as I know. Why would we limit him to less than half time? I could see the front office trying to avoid making Delmon too nervous by explicitly stating Kubel’s got his spot in right.
2. I disagree. When a team projects in the upper 80s wins-wise, each marginal win is that much more important. Yes, the AL Central looks poor on paper, but assuming this going into the season is a recipe for a 3rd-4th place finish. You have to improve the team where you can, as long as it doesn’t hamstring the franchise long term (see Tigers, Detroit). If we end up running away with the division, great. Having an above average second baseman makes this team that much more of a playoff threat.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah there is just no way Hudson at 4 million isn't a huge steal for this club
He would increase our playoff odds significantly if everything goes as planned, and if it doesn’t (someone gets hurt) he increases our playoff odds by adding depth. Having punto around to step in if someone gets hurt is a much better scenario than Casilla.
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 2, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
+20-25%
The playoff probability line is very steep between 87 and 93 wins. I looked at going from an 87 to 89 win team before we got Thome using Nate Silver’s playoff regression from Baseball Between the Numbers and got a 20% increase in playoff odds. Making the playoffs is worth roughly $25M to a team, so adding 2 wins (Hudson, Lopez) will increase revenue by $5M on average.
Casilla
Is he the future or not, that is the question.
If the Twins sign Hudson (or someone), they enter 2011 with no Punto, no casilla. Who plays second. Harris, maybe, because Valencia becomes a stud at third?
Is Casilla someone you try to keep, or do you allow (and hope) he becomes the next Luis Rivas.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
I for one,
don’t see him as a piece to our future. He certainly has done nothing to warrant it. His unimpressive .219/.288/.288 line in 23 games during the DWL only confirm this to me. I think the front office is just talking him up in the hopes of increasing his trade value.
by Michael in N.Cali on Feb 2, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
His defense stinks
If Casilla was a plus gloveman I’d give him another chance. He isn’t so I’d give Hudson a 2 year deal.
I'd be inclined to give Hudson a 2 year / $7M deal
if that’s what it would take to get him. With Punto’s contract (hopefully, if we sign Hudson) coming off the books, it wouldn’t hamstring us financially.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
I'm leaning toward "no"
on whether Casilla is “the future” at second base. But I can understand if the front office decides we’d rather go into a season keeping Casilla and his potential at league minimum salary, serfs are great pieces for keeping overall payroll manageable. I simply see a window for playoff impact open right now, would rather strike when it has the most positive effect.
Regarding 2011 plan if we sign Hudson to a one year deal… First, I think any Hudson contract with the Twins would have a team option. Gives us a potential if no others step forward. Second, remember that LNP also has an option for 2011. If no one else steps up for second base, I could easily see us exercise that option, especially if Punto has a solid season. I think Harris is the third option or lower.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Wash your mouth out
And don’t ever say anything about picking his option up ever again.
by DJL44 on Feb 2, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I need antacids just thinking about Punto's option
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Any move that makes Punto a utility IF
which is a role he is well suited for, automatically makes the Twins better.
Also, regarding, Thome, interesting read from BTB last week. Also makes a lot of sense.
87 wins???
Not to beat a dead horse, but you are saying that the Twins will win the same amount of games that they did last season… I don’t buy that. I’m thinking they are at about 93 wins right now. Add a decent second baseman and they are over 95.
Take off your hometown glasses
93 wins is the upper end of expectaions if absolutely everything goes right. 88 is nominal and 83 on low end of expectations (injuries, etc).
I see where you're coming from.
It seems our starting pitching should be better as we were missing Slowey a good chunk of the year, Baker started slow, Liriano was awful, Pavano will be here all year, and our bullpen is as solid as it’s ever been, much better than at the beginning of last year.
We acquired Hardy and Thome which should both help bolster our offense and Mauer was out a month, so was Morneau.
However, we got career years out of Mauer, Cuddy, and Kubel and a person has to expect some regression from those 3. There will be injuries to pitchers and hitters at some point and while we may be a bit better equipped they’ll still hurt.
So I agree this team looks much better than last years, but projecting wins is all about averages what this team with average luck/ performance/ injuries etc. would do. I think 88 is about right but they have the ability with some luck in close games to be in the low 90’s.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Actually, I'd put it at 88 wins
rounding up. This feels about right to me, though if I were a betting man I’d probably take the “over” at this point.
I’ll turn around the question, where do you get 7 additional wins from this ballclub? We appear to be better from a starting rotation standpoint, but there are always injuries. The bullpen is better, but then again we were pretty darn good last year (3.87 bullpen ERA, behind only Oakland, Boston and Seattle in the AL).
Defensively, we take a step back in CF without Gomez and 3B without Crede. We upgrade at SS with Hardy, but probably not enough to make up for Harris and Span/Young (we won’t have the Span-Gomez LF-CF combo this year).
Offensively, we’re better at DH/LF with Thome/Kubel, and hopefully 2B (historically bad last year, have to expect some improvement). But we also had career years out of Mauer, Cuddyer and Kubel. Have to expect some regression there as well.
In the next week or so, I’ll post a “Best Case” and “Worst Case” projection, taking five players and updating the team projections with their career years or with major problems.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 3, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Makes sense
But the rest of the division got worse this offseason. So I might say 90 is a reasonable number.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Offseason not over yet
And there are still a couple dozen WAR sitting waiting for a contract.
Twins contracts vs. market rate of $4 MM per WAR
I would love to see an analysis of how the Twins contracts (at least the major contracts) compare with the market rate of $4 MM per WAR.
For example, what is Mauer worth using this formula? Morneau? Cuddyer?
I did a lot of work on this
for the Marple Street Press publication that basically went down with my laptop. At some point I’ll have to re-post here.
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