Twins Payroll Budget for next year
Just a quick writeup about the Twins budget for next year. I'm just gonna take a quick stab at raises and money freed up by players leaving to get an idea where we're at for next year. I'm making the assumption that Perkins will be gone, Punto's option won't be picked up and Kubels will be. Then also that Joe Mauer will sign for roughly 20 million per year.
Leaving Players
Punto 4M
Pavano 7M
Guerrier 3.15M
Rauch 3.3 M
Crain 2 M
Thome 2M ( I think he'll hit some of his escalators to get it up to 2)
Add it all up and you get roughly 21.5 million coming off the books following this year.
Then you have our known Raises
Cuddyer 2 M
Kubel 1.15 M
Baker 2 M
Then you have a plethora of players in arbitration next year
JJ Hardy 2 M
Young 1 M
Blackburn 1 M
Slowey 1.5 M
Liriano 1 M
Neshek 1 M
Condrey .5 M
Span 2M
Casilla .5M
Tolbert .5 M
These are kind of shots in the dark, I'm not very good at estimating these so any corrections or suggestions are more than appreciated. The Twins are looking about 16 million for these players and when you add in a cool 8 million raise for Mauer, you get 24 million in player raises. So 24 million - 21.5 means the Twins will be spending 2.5 more next year with the current team. This means losing a lot of players and isn't taking into account even league minimum contracts to replace Pavano, Guerrier, Rauch, Crain, Punto, and Thome. I would say another 2 million at least to pay their replacements and you're up to 4.5 million payroll above what we're currently at for 2010.
So the Twins being afraid to sign a 2B to a multi year deal makes a lot of sense. The Twins might have to get very creative to free up money next year if they want to be active at all in FA or try to lock up some of their young talent like Span, Slowey, Blackburn, etc. They would have to seriously consider trading Cuddyer or letting Young go especially if Tosoni or Revere look ready for the big leagues. I know 2011 is a long ways off but it definitely puts things into perspective as we're clamoring for the Twins to sign Hudson or F. Lopez.
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Good post
I’m not too worried about the leaving players.
Pavano = Duensing, Perkins, Manship, Swarzak
Crain, Rauch, Guerrier = Delaney, Slama, Burnett
Punto = Punto (I think he’ll be back for $2-3M)
Tolbert (1.099) and Span (1.111) won’t qualify for arbitration. Super 2’s have needed an average of 2.148 years of service time. I also wouldn’t expect Casilla or Condrey back unless they’re close to the minimum or have breakouts.
Span's service time
I saw that on Cot’s Span has only 1.111 but I figured it would be more than that as he played in 93 games in 2008 and a full year in 2009. I guess I don’t understand how they measure service time I assumed it went by how much of a season you were in the majors. So Span would be more like 1.6 by that logic. So I thought maybe they were off, hopefully not because Span could be in for a big raise if he puts up another great year.
I agree with your logic on Pavano especially, not quite as much with the 3 relievers you mentioned. I think we’ll be ok without them but only if Neshek gets back to form. I kind of thought the same things about Casilla and Condrey but didn’t want to make that assumption.
The point was more that the Twins have a lot of money coming off the books but most of it will be eaten up by current players raises and thus a multi year deal to a 2B would be tough to pull off.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
THANK YOU
That makes so much more sense now, I was trying to figure out how the hell Span only had 1 and 1/10th years of service time. Wow that kinda sucks for those guys that they end up with another year of servitude even though they’ve played almost 3 years like Span will have at the end of this year.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I wouldn't lose three relievers in one year
Otherwise, I agree with this.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think we may keep Guerrier
otherwise, i have no issues about swapping Crain and Rauch for Delaney and Slama.
Might not be Delaney and Slama
Maybe it’s Duensing and Matt Fox. Point is they should be able to scrape up a few bullpen arms out of AA and AAA.
If I had to choose
I’d say Gutierrez and Burnett.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The point being
There’s a lot of high upside bullpen arms at the higher levels as between the three of you guys 6 names have been brought up and there’s still a few more possibilities in Perkins and Manship. Loek Van Mil
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Yeah, but it takes time to adjust to the majors
Half of those six will fail or get hurt. Sorting out which ones are ready for high-pressure work takes a season or so.
Juan Rincon needed a year of long relief before he was ready for close and late situations. Same with Guerrier. Neshek and Crain did well right away, but they got hurt shortly thereafter as well.
That’s why you can’t just rip out three guys and stick three rookies in their place, unless you’re prepared to lose a lot.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Sign 1 free agent
Nathan, Mijares, Neshek, Duensing, Free Agent, rookie, rookie
That should work fine.
Sure they can
Rip out three guys, I mean. The 04 Twins lost Everyday Eddie, Hawkins and Santana from the 03 pen but rebounded just fine. The Twins have a ton of BP arms and can get more on the cheap FA market or from the starters who don’t make the rotation. Some of the young guys will get thier first BP taste this year. And even withouth Rauch, Crain and Guerrier the BP would still have Nathan, Neshek and Mijares (and possibly Condrey). If Neshek breaks down this year, someone will have come up to fix him so it won’t be another rookie in 11.
Personally, I’m really excited about those three leaving b/c we can offer arbitration to all three. Rauch would’ve been an A this year, Guerrier a B and Crain just missed a B. Four first round picks (maybe more if Guerrier can get bumped up) for those three + salary space. Yes, please.
Ouch
But what if all 3 accept arbitration? You’re looking at $12-15M for mediocre RH relief pitching.
True
I think the team would have a pretty good idea whether or not they’d accept before they do it. And if the guys have bad seasons this year, they probably wouldn’t be ranked so wouldn’t get arbitration offers anyway. But if they had good years I would expect that they would want multiple years so wouldn’t want arbitration. We’ll see.
Two clarifications
The 04 Twins lost Everyday Eddie, Hawkins and Santana from the 03 pen but rebounded just fine.
The Twins also acquired Joe Nathan that offseason. I don’t see another Nathan on the horizon. Also, Santana was a starter in the second half of 2003. So, really, they lost two relievers and gained one.
They will probably lose two of these four next offseason: Nathan, Crain, Rauch, Guerrier. They will need one acquisition to go with a Neshek rebound and a good rookie to prevent a major drop off.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Nathan will stay
Really, what we’re talking about is losing our (right now) 2nd, 4th and 5th best BP arms. By the end of the season so many things will have happened that we don’t really have to worry about it. Mijares could become the go-to set up guy he has occasionally showed; Neshek could bounce back; Duensing may turn into Guerrier of 05; Burnett might be Neshek 0f 06; Condrey could be more reliable than we thought.
I'm not so sure about Nathan
His cost to value ratio is going up. If he has another season like 2009 in 2010, he’ll be trade bait, imo.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd like this
I love Nathan, he’s a stud but if Neshek is back to form and the young guys look capable, I think I’d rather have Crain and Guerrier + 4-5 million than Nathan.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I agree
At the money that Nathan is probably going to be asking for if he continues to be an elite closer, there’s no way I want him back after this year. Spending that much on a reliever is silly to begin with, and we can allocate that money towards the Mauer contract, the raises for our arbitration eligible players, FA, etc.
by JTW on Feb 3, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, is Nathan's contract up after this year or next?
Either way, I doubt he’ll be back whenever it is.
by JTW on Feb 3, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
He's signed through 2011
His trade value will be small after the season because he’s so expensive. But let’s say Super Mario retires, the Yankees will be in on it.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
In the end a lot of it will be decided this year
I’d say theres a very good chance that at least one or two bullpen arms goes down this season for decent periods of time. I believe the Twins will get good looks at Delaney and Slama this year even before September. Hopefully they can show enough that they’ll have faith in them next year. As is always the case the bullpen will be sorted out over the season depending on how Mijares and Neshek do as well as the young guys when they get their “cups of coffee.” Who knows the vets might stink this year and the Twins might not want them back. There’s just so many things that can happen this season that will affect the Twins bullpen decisions next year. I think for salary prediction purposes it makes sense that the Twins retain one of the three veterans mentioned.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I just went by people who are going to be free agents.
If they can afford it, it would be great to keep one of those 3. Who knows though, if Neshek can return to form and some of the AAA guys get a chance and prove themselves, they may not need them.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
+1
Losing Crain, Guerrier and Rauch all in the same year would hurt. I’d probably want to keep at least one, depending on how Slama, Delaney and Burnett progress. Otherwise we’re left with Nathan, Mijares and Condrey.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 3, 2010 7:33 AM EST up reply actions
Possibly Neshek.
It’s a long way off, but a bullpen of Nathan, Mijares, Neshek, Slama and Delaney isn’t a bad start. It’d be good to have one more arm there with a track record, but we’d probably have a guy like Swarzak or Liriano or Duensing in there, too.
A bold statement
about a couple of players that have never played in the majors and have only had a sniff of AAA.
Relievers are volatile
If it’s a choice between spending the budget on position players or relievers I’d prefer to improve the everyday players. My point was not that the minor league guys will be exactly as good as Crain, Guerrier and Rauch. I was trying to point out reasonable low cost alternatives. The Twins will never have proven players everywhere and if you have to pinch pennies I think bullpen slots 4-7 is a good place.
by Jon Kammerer on Feb 2, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Already did that
He’s locked up for another 4 seasons, through his age 32 season.
I could easily see....
Cuddy being traded before next season to free up payroll, or even Nathan. Both will be in the final years of their respective deals in 2011. And combined they’ll make over $20M. That’s a lot of cash when you consider possible replacements should be ready in 2011 at both spots. There are a number of bullpen candidates that COULD fill Nathan’s slot, albeit not as well of course, and Revere should be ready in 2011 to take over for Cuddyer.
Regardless, it’s really a “one year” problem as I see it. Because assuming both of those guys are gone AFTER 2011, that’s a big chunk, and while a lot of the youth will be demanding raises in arbitration, the Twins should have a new wave of prospect talent knocking on the door as well to replace them. Names like Gibson, Gutierrez, Guerra, Bromberg, Hicks, Morales, Ramos, etc. So I actually think while we may be “pushing” payroll limits on paper in 2012 or so again, we probably will be in a very enviable position in being able to trade still young, quality talent (guys like Baker/Slowey/Span, etc.,) if we so choose, to continue to stock the farm at the lower levels.
I envision this team (hopefully) eventually reaching the state where we have a few true STAR players that we’re paying to keep (Mauer, Morneau, crossing fingers-Liriano, etc.) but also filling out the rest of the roster with young, cheap, high-quality talent continuously. I think we’re pretty close to that vision now.
how about
instead of letting all 3 of those guys go just keep them and trade nathan for his 12 million and put neshek or mijares in the closing role
He's untradable
He’s a great closer but only a team that can afford 12m and needs a closer (ie contends) would think about trading for him. But there are a lot of other (lesser) closers available for much less than the $ and prospects it would take to get Nathan.
The bullpen......
Is overpriced, but many questions.
Who is the closer in training for the day Nathan burns.
Is it Crain, who the Twins have not given up on.
I doubt Guerrier, who will find value come mid-season when some team in contention may be looking for a closer.
Rauch will be August tradebait, if the Twins are failing.
Neshek is still the question mark.
Look for the Twins to work at least two bodies into the mix (Slama and Delaney, fer sure). They still need a strong long-lefty.
Remember that Burnett is also in the wings. Not to mention lots of mop-up guys — Waldrop, Fox, ol Loek!
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Some Guys Just Have It
And maybe Burnett is one of them (or Slama or Delaney or Guty). “It” being the ability to come in and close games, even as a rookie, a la Papelbon or Andrew Bailey.
Perhaps Mauer will structure his contract to help insure that Nathan and Cuddyer don’t have to be traded next offseason, thus ensuring at least a two year window with the current team. After that, the next wave of prospects should be more than ready, Delmon may be gone, perhaps a Kubel or a Baker get’s traded as they become expensive.
In general, I think the year to year budget is useful, but I expect a wise organization uses average payroll over a stretch of years. Heck, even the Yankees seem to be showing restraint—they broke the bank last year to insure a WS win their first year in their new stadium.
I think the Twins would be wise to use the next couple years of Mauer and Morneau’s prime, spend as much as possible, and see what happens. After that, they start to become grizzled vets, and the next crop of young studs start appearing on the scene. Not to mention getting the Tar Pit off to a resounding start.
Extra half-million on the books
Punto’s contract has a $500k buyout if the Twins don’t pick up the option. Not a huge deal, but it brings the year-over-year change to an even $3 million.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
cuddy
cuddy should not be on the block. Plenty of new pitchers could be brought up instead. Sy what you want about mauer , morneau. cuddy and kubel get my twins mvp last year.
It depends on how Tosoni and Delmon do
If Tosoni takes the next step in AAA and Delmon takes the next step in the MLB, Cuddy might be expendable. I would say the odds are against both happening.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Likewise with Nathan
If they have to move Liriano to the bullpen but he’s lights out there and Neshek comes back breathing fire, then maybe they can move Nathan. Until you have an in-house replacement it’s a good idea to hang onto your good players.
If you think that Cuddy was actually more valuable than Mauer last year
then I don’t even know what to say to you. If you meant that Kubel and Cuddy, together, were the MVP, and together were more valuable than Mauer, then you at least have an argument, but I still think you’re wrong.
The twins would have won more games last year with a Delmon, Gomez, Span outfield and Harris DHing every day then they would have with Redmond and Morales splitting the catching duties.
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 4, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
making money by winning world series in 2010....
This could allow our payroll to go up a bit in 2011. The Twins will make some extra cash as world series winners and some of that could be used for next years payroll.
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