Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects
by TheBlackFreighter on Feb 23, 2010 2:46 PM EST
20 comments
Baseball America recently released their "Top 100 Prospects" list and four Twins were honored. Aaron Hicks is their 19th-ranked prospect, followed by Wilson Ramos at #58, Kyle Gibson at #61 and Miguel Sano at #94.
For those of you keeping track at home, Aaron Hicks was the only Twin featured in MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects at #29. He was also featured as Keith Law's 19th-ranked prospect for ESPN.
Ramos, Gibson and Sano also cracked Keith Law's ESPN list at #'s 42, 89 and 97 respectively.
The future definitely looks bright for our hometown nine!
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BA likes Cleveland's Prospects
Cleveland = #10,31,44,64,65
Minnesota = #19,58,61,94
Royals = #39,40, 80, 100
Tigers = #26,47,76
Sox = #55,60,66
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MLB likes Royals Farm
Royals = #32,33,41,43
Indians = #11,46
Tigers = #38,42
Twins = #29
Sox = 0
Not sure how that compares to Keith Law’s 100 or Baseball Prospectus’ (if its out yet) but it looks like Cleveland and KC have best upside prospects in Central (which by all rights, they should)
I'm reading my BP right now
Twins have:
HIcks at 25
Revere(!) at 45
Ramos at 64
Gibson at 71
Interestingly, both BP and BA like a catcher for the Nats named Derek Norris a lot more than Ramos (in the 20s for BP, 30s for BA).
by Eric in Madison on Feb 23, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
That's awesome
Ben Revere is rated higher by the stats guys than by the scouting guys. The Twins had to defend the pick to all the amateur draft gurus out there that are generally stats guys. The scouts liked him but now see flaws that contradict the results.
The Twins scouting found a guy that stats guys love more than scouts but they did it using scouting, not stats. It’s getting to the point where I can’t tell them apart.
Well, to be fair
Nobody (but the Twins) liked that pick there—both BA and BP questioned that pick.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 23, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Stats guys weigh actual performance
Before he was drafted, what performance could a stats guy judge him on? Each successful minor league season he has makes him look better to the stats guys.
Hicks and Sano
Just adding to this but Hicks is the highest rated Twin in some time. The only current Twins that were 19th or higher were M&Ms, Kubel, Liriano, Hardy and Young (Garza topped out at 21). None of our other young starters (Slowey, Baker, Perkins, Blackburn) broke the top 50 – Perkins made it the highest.
And Sano is the youngest player on the BA 100 (obviously).
One of the great things about this, is the age of these players.
It’s one thing to be #19, it’s another thing to be #19 when you are as young as Hicks. This could be seen as a problem for an old team who needs help right now, but its an advantage for us. Our roster is good and young, so we can wait on the high upside guys.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 24, 2010 3:18 AM EST reply actions
Is this really that good?
Follow my logic: there are 32 teams in the league. As such, the average team should be expected to have a system equivalent to the following:
#15.5 ranked (average of 1-32), #47.5 ranked, #79.5 ranked, and #111.5 ranked. That is basically where we are at, so I would call our system average, in terms of these mainstream rankings.
Like Eliingson mentioned
the Twins’ prospects are good and young. Considering that the team is good right now and don’t particularly need these guys, by the time they are needed there is a good chance they will be much higher than average.
it's not bad
Well, if it was evened out, everyteam would have three, we have four. (Last year we had three and John Manuel said that Revere was the toughest cut this year). I think the Twins generally rank in the top 10-15 range or so overall by most analysts which is a lot higher than where we have been. I think what’s good is that our minor league talent level is improving a lot the last few years. We had a bit of dry spell (b/c of the draughts of the 04/05/06 draft classes) but the last few drafts have been very good.
It's about the whole organization
The Twins have an above average minor league system and they’re competing for a pennant with a lot of young talent. That is an envious position. Many of the teams with great minor league systems are rebuilding and just sold everything off. Many of the teams with poor minor league systems are contenders who used prospects to buy major league players.
thoughts
I’m not saying that it’s bad, I just think we’re over-reacting. The twins, on the whole, are usually considered to have a deep farm. Lately, we are getting more credit for the top couple of guys, which is nice. It means we have a better shot at producing a couple of starts to complement or replace our current batch. Again, that’s good. On the other hand, I don’t think that it’s better because they are young. I’d rather they be on the verge of making the team, so they could improve our team now, instead of replacing the talent we have, Nathan, Cuddyer, etc.
Anyway, the point was just that this is nice, but nothing special. Also, the best teams still have some good prospects.
Deep farm
I think the Twins have a very deep farm. Sickles, for example, rated more Twins prospects C and above than any other system. In the past, they just haven’t typically had as many Top 100 prospects (B+ and A), especially after promoting so many top prospects in the mid 00s.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
3/4 position players
Victor Wang did a study in the 2009 Hardball Times on prospect valuations. Basically, top 100 position players are twice as valuable as top 100 pitchers. Tinstaapp. Just counting the number of top 100 prospects underates our system. It also doesn’t count Revere and Valencia who project as above average and average regulars repectively.
above aveage
I’m guessing there are about 150 (wild guess) prospects in every team’s system. That makes 3,000 minor league baseball players. That makes 1400 above average players that are not in the top 100 prospects.
Thus, the 100 prospects is only a gauge of top talent. The Twins are average in that respect, according to these rating resources. We can say we have depth, which I believe (though I wouldn’t have the experience to know), you can say that our players are under-rated, you can say that ours are in better levels (younger), etc. All I’m saying is that we shouldn’t read THESE studies as indicating that we’re significantly above average. What do the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, etc. have? That is how we would have to compare.
He meant average compared to the Major Leagues, I believe
Revere and Valencia are far above average for Minor Leaguers, and both should be able to contribute in the Majors.
correct
Players that project to be average major league regulars don’t get much love on prospect lists but are very valuable to teams trying to hold down payroll.
by Jon Kammerer on Feb 25, 2010 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
This is why the Twins succeed
They produce tons of B level Prospect that slid under the radar. Duensing is a good example. He’s not a top prospect but was 5-2 with the Twins last year. He’s no superstar but could be a solid Pro. Others- Valencia,Manship,Slama,Tosoni might all be solid pro’s
by b1 on Feb 26, 2010 8:29 AM EST up reply actions
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