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Apparently Dave Cameron is as tired of people already under-estimating the Twins as I am. Vegas put the over/under on Minnesota at just 82 wins.

Obviously that's a joke, but it just goes to show you what Vegas needs to do to even out the bets. If they went the "informed" route and put it at a realistic 87-90 wins, apparently they think everone would pick "under".

almost 2 years ago Twinkietown_tiny Jesse 14 comments 0 recs  | 

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82 was the initial line.

I was in Vegas last week for a friend’s bachelor party, and at most sportsbooks the Twins’ line is around 84. Which means there’s probably already been a little action on the over.

These were the over/unders at the Palms:

Arizona Diamondbacks – 82
Atlanta Braves – 85.5
Baltimore Orioles – 76
Boston Red Sox – 94.5
Chicago Cubs – 83.5
Chicago White Sox – 82.5
Cincinnati Reds – 79.5
Cleveland Indians – 75.5
Colorado Rockies – 84
Detroit Tigers – 78.5
Florida Marlins – 81
Houston Astros – 73.5
Kansas City Royals – 72
Los Angeles Angels – 85
Los Angeles Dodgers – 85.5
Milwaukee Brewers – 80.5
Minnesota Twins – 84.5
New York Mets – 81
New York Yankees – 95.5
Oakland Athletics – 79
Philadelphia Phillies – 92.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 69
San Diego Padres – 72.5
San Francisco Giants – 82.5
Seattle Mariners – 82.5
St Louis Cardinals – 87.5
Tampa Bay Rays – 90
Texas Rangers – 83.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 72.5
Washington Nationals – 70.5

I took the over on the Rockies, Twins, Giants and Mariners, and the under on the Diamondbacks and Red Sox.

by matty_b on Feb 28, 2010 1:21 PM EST reply actions  

what does the over/under pay out if you win?

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

by RileysCannibalJct on Feb 28, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Most are around $115 for every $100 bet.

by matty_b on Feb 28, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

or conversely

$100 for every $115, if you’re betting on the side that is favored.

by matty_b on Feb 28, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh.

It’s not like I did it to get rich. I’d just rather blow money on that than a slot machine. And that way if i do win anything, extra money the next time I go to Vegas.

by matty_b on Feb 28, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

This is

This is no big deal. As a Northwestern fan, I’m used to my teams being consistently underestimated by the betting lines due to biases and fan base sizes. It just means we have easy bets to make.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 28, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions  

Off topic

But, does Northwestern basketball still have a shot at making the tourney? I know for most of the year they were in contention, but I haven’t heard where they’re sitting right now.

by matty_b on Feb 28, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Not this year

Nope, especially after their abysmal play against Iowa and Penn St lately (our home shellacking of the Hawkeyes notwithstanding). Honestly, our road got really hard when A> out best player got hurt before the season even started and B> the rest of the Big Ten sucked in their non-conference games and took the Big Ten from looking at 7 or 8 tournament berths to 4 or 5. We’re probably going to finish with 8 regular season Big Ten wins, which was about 1 short of what we thought we’d need before the season. But some other Big Ten teams were so disappointing against the rest of the country that’s it’s ended up being more like 11 or 12 Big Ten wins to make the dance.

We could be totally deadly next year though.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 28, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

The 2003 AL Central over/unders got me started in sports betting, the Royals being overrated and the Twins underrated. Until that time I hadn’t realize how erroneous Vegas could be at times (though it didn’t take long to find out it’s rare). But in this case, I think most places now have 84.5 or so, and I think that’s only marginally pessimistic.

by drivlikejehu on Feb 28, 2010 3:29 PM EST reply actions  

This line has dropped...

On one online site which has the Over/under on wins early, had it at 85.5. Now it’s 82.5.

Interesting, last year the line was 83.5, does this team project worse than last year?

Oh well, good for me, maybe will cash by early/mid September.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Feb 28, 2010 6:26 PM EST reply actions  

In terms of winning the World Series

Vegas is coming around.
I was in Vegas about 3 weeks ago and picked up a futures sheet. It had the Twins at 30:1 to win it all. When I went to place the bet it was down to 15:1. This was post Thome. By the time I left it was 12:1. Since then they got Hudson (and Jacque! ;-)). I haven’t looked but I’m guessing the number has moved even more. Folks seem to be coming around…

by z-squad on Feb 28, 2010 9:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Why Do We Care?

It really doesn’t mean anything. The Twins never get the respect they deserve.

by DZ2311 on Feb 28, 2010 9:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

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