Grading the 2009 Minnesota Twins: OF / DH
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 8:39 AM EST
in By the Numbers
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PrintI've been meaning to write a series of reviews of the 2009 season, player by player, grading each from "A" to "F". Now that I finally have the time here's the first of four articles, focusing on outfield and DH positions. In future articles between now and spring training, I'll take a look at infield/catcher, starting pitching, and the bullpen. For those of you with ADD, here's how I grade the Twins outfielders in 2009:
- Denard Span: A-
- Michael Cuddyer: B+
- Jason Kubel: B
- Delmon Young: D-
- Carlos Gomez: D
First, an explanation of the grades for each player:
- I'm not grading on an absolute scale, but rather relative to the player's performance relative to hopes and expectations coming into the season. In other words, an "A" for Joe Mauer is much more difficult than an "A" for Nick Punto.
- No grade inflation here. A "C" means the player didn't outperform or underperform relative to expectations last year.
- Expectations are solely limited to my gut feeling now that the season is done. If nothing else, it will be a good discussion topic!
- Any player will only be graded at a single position. In other words, Mauer is only a catcher, not a DH.
Without further ado, here's a review of the Twins outfielders and DH during the 2009 season:
Grade: A-
After an outstanding 2008 breakout season, in which Span posted a .294 / .387 / .432 line and a solid 2.6 WAR, most of us questioned whether he could follow it up with a solid sophomore season. I, for one, would have been very happy with nothing more than a repeat of Span's rookie season. Span obliged in 2009, posting an offensive line similar to 2008 (.359 wOBA last year, .364 in 2008), except over a full season. As a result, Span posted a 3.8 WAR from the leadoff spot. Defensively, Denard took a slight step backward with a cumulative UZR of +0.4 compared to +2.7 the year before, but most of the difference is due to Span spending nearly half of 2009 at the more difficult defensive center field position.
Denard Span's offensive and defensive contributions noted above by themselves would have earned a B+ grade. Solidifying the Twins leadoff spot with a .392 OBP in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and the other Twins sluggers pushed Span up to an A- grade. And all of this at a major league minimum salary through 2010!
Grade: B+
After a breakout 2006 season in which Michael Cuddyer posted a .284/.362/.504 line with 24 HR and 109 RBI, the Twins right fielder took a step back in 2007 (.276/.356/.433 with a drop in isolated slugging from .221 down to .157) and then spent the 2008 season rotating on and off the disabled list. Coming into 2009, I would have been happy with a healthy, somewhat productive season. And Cuddyer delivered, posting a wOBA of .370, same as in 2006, and hitting a career high 32 home runs. As the Twins primary power threat from the right side, Cuddyer's resurgence was critical between lefties Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Never the greatest defensive outfielder, Cuddyer took another step backwards in the field, posting a -16.9 UZR. in RF. In total, Cuddyer cost the Twins 17.3 runs compared to the average defensive player, almost canceling out his +22.3 runs above average at the plate. These defensive ratings were by far the worst of his career, as Cuddyer posted -4.8, -3.1 and -4.6 the last three years. Has Cuddyer lost a step and become a major liability in RF? Or was last season's UZR artificially low last year?
In all, Cuddyer's offense was worth an A-, but his defense knocked him back to a B. In the end, the fact that Cuddyer filled in serviceably for Justin Morneau at first base over the last month of the season bumps him up to a B+.
Grade: B
In 2008, Jason Kubel showed signs of the breakout (.272/.335/.471 with 20 HR) we have all been waiting for since his stellar minor league stats and 2004 knee injury. During the offseason, the Twins rewarded Kubel with a 2 year / $7.2M contract with a $5.25M option for 2011. While most Twins fans (including me) were happy with the signing (which locks Kubel up through his first free agency eligible year), other sabermetric experts including Dave Cameron, criticized the signing, citing other cheaper free agent designated hitters like Erik Hinske on the market for a cheaper $1-2M price tag. Dave, how do you like that Hinske option (.242/.348/.432 in 93 games, 0.8 WAR) now? In 2009, Kubel more than earned his $2.75M salary, posting a .300/.369/.539 line with 28 HR, 103 RBI, and a .383 wOBA (about a 40 point improvement over his previous high water mark). Improvements were pretty much across the board, as Kubel improved his walk rate (9.7%), isolated slugging (.239), fly ball percentage (41.7%) and home runs per fly ball (16.3%). The only negatives I see from 2009 were a slight jump in strikeout rate (one point, to 20.6%) and a .336 BABIP that tells me his .300 batting average may not be repeated. But in all, and excellent season at the plate, with a value of +27.3 runs above average. Defensively, Kubel saw most of his time at DH, but in 59 games split between LF and RF, he posted a -5.2 UZR, which projects to -15.5 UZR/150. Not very good, but at least hidden for the most part at DH. In total, Kubel pulled in 2.9 WAR, a very solid performance for a DH, not to mention great value at $2.75M.
Looking forward, hitting against LHP remains Kubel's achilles heel, as he posted a .243/.299/.345 line against lefties (basically turning into Carlos Gomez at the plate). Considering that Kubel has not shown a year to year improvement against LHP (666, 704, 644 OPS in 07, 08 and 09), he's getting closer and closer to platooning for his career. Overall, I graded Kubel at A- offensively, but bumped him down for his defense and down again for the struggles against LHP to end up at "B" for the season.
Grade: D-
Except for Nick Punto, Delmon Young is probably the most criticized Twins player. Whenever fans look at Delmon, the thought of the players it cost to acquire him (Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza) makes us cringe at what could have been. For Young, it's always a matter of the team having enough patience to allow him to reach his "potential". The problem is, how many years are we supposed to wait? Over the past three seasons (one with Tampa, two with Minnesota), Young's offensive lines are strikingly similar: .288/.316/.408, .290/.336/.405 and .284/.308/.425 in 07, 08 and 09. A decent batting average, little to no patience, and a little (but not much) slugging. Will the power ever show? Offensively, two statistics jump out at me for Delmon Young in 2009. First, we saw his already minuscule walk rate (3.8% and 5.6% in 07/08) crater down to 2.9% for a total of 12 walks on the season. An out machine of the highest order. Second, we finally saw a jump in Delmon's power, as his isolated slugging jumped to .142 from .119 and .115 in his first two seasons with the Twins. A promising trend, although Young still has not reached the level (.476 SLG, .159 ISO, 38 doubles) of his final year in Tampa. Defensively, what can I say? After two seasons of above average ratings in RF in Tampa, Young has been stuck in left field by the Twins, and Delmon has responded with identical -16.4 UZR in 2008 and 2009. Any of us who have seen "Skates" in left know that it's an adventure any time a fly ball is hit to left.
Overall, below average offense and horrible defense means Young has provided below replacement level value both of his two seasons, -0.4 WAR in 2008 and -1.1 WAR in 2009. When a player costs his team over one win below replacement level, I have to start with a grade of "F". But Young's ability to pick it up during the second half (.300/.322/.502 after the all star break), as well as the jump in slugging makes me bump his final grade up to a D-.
Grade: D
The centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade, Carlos Gomez had an up and down 2008 season with the Twins. Offensively, he was not very good (.258/.296/.360), but his stellar defense in center field (+16.5 UZR) made up for it and contributed to a solid +2.3 WAR for the season. Coming into 2009, we hoped to see some improved patience and a bit more slugging from Gomez. An OPS over 700 probably would have made most of us happy last year. Instead, Gomez got off to a poor start, batting .195/.250/.293 in April, and never really hit his stride in May (625 OPS) or June (650) either. In the Twins crowded outfield, Carlos became the odd man out, limited to defensive replacement duty over the final month and a half. And while Gomez played good defense in 2009 (+7.3 UZR, +10.0 UZR/150), it was a slight step back range-wise compared to 2008 and not enough to cancel out his -14.2 runs above average at the plate.
Overall, Carlos Gomez provided 0.7 WAR in 2009. Definitely a step backwards from the previous season. I would have given Gomez a D- grade, same as Delmon Young, but in the end, my memory of Gomez' 2009 season includes a few amazing clutch late inning catches in center field during the playoff stretch run in September. So I bump Gomez up to a final grade of "D".
Next week, I'll focus on the Twins catchers and infielders. Hmmm...I wonder if anyone on the team earned an outright "A"? If someone did, I recommend we sign him to a $150M+ contract immediately. I also wonder if anyone earned an outright "F"? Stay tuned...
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Nice
Good reading. Really makes me appreciate the offensive moves the front office has made, when I read how horrible our corner OF defense was/is.
Can we expect the IF soon? You know that is what we all are waiting for!
Unless Delmon improves in 2010
I fear our OF defense will be worse next year. I expect Span to end up around average with a full year in CF, but that’s a downgrade from Gomez. And then there’s Delmon, Kubel and Cuddyer.
I’ll be posting the infield later this week. There are 10 players, so it will take twice as long to write up.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Delmon may be better
He should at least be faster. Also, losing 30 pounds shows a dedication that he has lacked so far. He won’t be a good defender but maybe he can avoid being atrocious.
by ckb on Feb 7, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I hope so
Hopefully moving away from the Metrodome LF will help as well.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
I also fear
that our OF defense will be much worse then anticipated. Losing Gomez is going to have a drastic affect.
I’m not expecting Delmon, Kubel or Cuddyer to play better defense when they are going to have to adjust to a new stadium.
Hopefully baserunners continue to think the same, attempting to stretch hits by an extra base and our cannon arms can again be a benefit like last year. But I also don’t expect to throw as many runners out as last year. Seems it was an spectacular feat how often it happened last year. Hard to repeat.
I think we could be surprised with our OF defense.
I don’t think it will be good. But it could be better. If Young’s a bit more athletic that’s a plus, and I think Cuddyer’s UZR/150 was made worse by the baggy.
It won’t be pretty, and your points are all good ones, but right now I can’t help it…I’m pretty optimistic.
Also, corner outfield D just isn't really a big hairy deal anyway.
I mean, it ain’t nothing, but if you want me to pick a weakness, bad corner OF defense is probably near the top of my list.
I am not sure
Our D is going to be a big problem.
We will be slow in the corners and Span is going to have to cover a lot of ground.
I also think we will see more grounders go through holes this year too.
by clutterheart on Feb 8, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Gomez made the corner outfielders better
When you reduce the surface area a corner guy has to cover, it makes a big difference. Span has average range, so these guys will have to play straight up rather than cheating towards the line. That will let a lot more stuff get in down the lines.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd rather have outfield defense by my biggest weakness
than say, 3-4-5 in the rotation, or 2B and 3B infield. But I would expect our outfield to be at least 20 runs below average defensively, and that would require an improvement across the board from Delmon/Kubel, Span and Cuddyer. The four combined for -38.5 runs according to UZR last year. That’s pretty huge, more than the total value Scott Baker (3.5 WAR) provided last year.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
I think the 38.5 is sort of flukeish
But I don’t think your 20 below average is probably too far off as a projection. But you couple that with being about +10 in the infield and +5 at catcher (I’m making these numbers up), and you’re more or less an average defensive team. I’m fine with that.
Between Kubel, Delmon, and Cuddyer, they’ll earn their keep with the bats and I’ll salute my plodding, slugging corner outfielders.
Feels a bit flukish to me as well
and I don’t think Casilla’s -9.6 UZR will be repeated this year in the infield. I agree, our improved infield defense may cancel out the outfield. And the outfielders will earn their keep at the plate. Hopefully this will include Delmon as well.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Terrific breakdown, thanks
I think Kubel deserves at least a B+ for his breakout season, but that’s my only quibble.
As for Span…wow was I wrong about him. His minor league numbers were so unimpressive I just thought he was never going to be a major league starter. It appears the Twins agreed with me, frankly; they went out and got Gomez, and installed him in 2008, despite the fact that he wasn’t ready. All of a sudden, Span’s working counts, taking walks, and hitting line drives.
Span is the 2nd most important player on the team
No offense intended to Justin Morneau.
I’m really excited for Denard. He’s going to be a star.
Agreed
Him and Mauer are the most irreplaceable in the lineup. There is nobody else to fill in at those fielding spots or their spots in the lineup.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
+1
Yep. Not just defensively, but losing Span at the top leaves a big hole as well. Hudson mitigates it a bit, but that leaves a big hole at #2.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Not quite ready for that yet, but I'd say he's a close 3rd
The fact that the Twins did well sans Morneau last year was due to the fact that about 5 other players started to hit out of thier skins, not that Morneau is “replaceable.”
But here’s to impeccable health for both next year.
By WAR
Denard was more valuable last year than Morneau has ever been in a single season other than 2006.
I think they are really close in over all value but the Twins have no one who can play center field right now other than Span. Morneau isn’t replaceable either but losing Span would hurt just a little bit more, IMO. Believe me, I hope we don’t get to test that theory for either one of them.
fear
I have not considered the fact that Span is irreplaceable!
If Span got hurt would they push up Revere?
by clutterheart on Feb 8, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Morneau versus Span
I’d say an injury to Span hurts us more than Morneau. If Span goes down, we’d be looking at Pridie or a minor league free agent playing every day in center field. We’d also move Hudson to the leadoff spot and have a hole at #2. Hardy?
If Morneau were to go down again, we’d put Cuddyer at 1B. Delmon and Kubel at the corner OF spots, and Thome at DH. Not a huge dropoff when we can get these four in the lineup. We would take a hit when Thome or Kubel need to rest, that’s when I would give Pridie time in CF and Span to RF.
So if Span goes down, we’re looking at Pridie every day. If Morneau goes down, slight downgrade every day, larger when Pridie has to play to allow Kubel or Thome to rest.
I would consider neither to be “replaceable”, but less impact of Morneau were to go down, IMO.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Kubel
I ended up directly comparing Kubel and Cuddyer, and I had to grade Cuddyer a step above Kubel. Mucho productive down the stretch, and Cuddyer gave us that weapon we needed against LHP. And I had to grade both below Span, IMO.
But Kubel is right on the borderline B/B+.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Looks about right
I would move Gomez down to a D- for bone headed base running. Young’s grade of a D- is right-on but I would add that he was very dissapointing in October compared to what he did in September.
A++++
… for Joe Crede!!
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Confused on your rankings.
In how you rank, you state:
4. Any player will only be graded at a single position. In other words, Mauer is only a catcher, not a DH.
and then you have this:
In the end, the fact that Cuddyer filled in serviceably for Justin Morneau at first base over the last month of the season bumps him up to a B+.
and this:
Overall, I graded Kubel at A- offensively, but bumped him down for his defense and down again for the struggles against LHP to end up at “B” for the season.
If he is our DH why are you counting defense?
I did find it interesting that with all the talk about Delmon being horrible defensively, his UZR is actually slightly better then Cuddyer’s. Never saw that coming.
by Michael in N.Cali on Feb 7, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions
Clarification
Solely meant that a player would only appear once. You wouldn’t see a grade for Mauer at catcher and a grade at DH, in other words. Sorry about that.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
UZR for corner outfielders
I did find it interesting that with all the talk about Delmon being horrible defensively, his UZR is actually slightly better then Cuddyer’s. Never saw that coming.
Young at least has a little speed. Cuddyer is a fricking totem pole out there. I only watched the last half of the season but I can’t remember how many times I almost pulled my hair out as a pop fly into right field fell in front of Cuddyer. The only reason he isn’t a DH/bench player at this point is because we don’t have any RH hitters to speak of. As I’ve said before, if there is any way to move Cuddyer out of the field and put Delmon back in Rf where he belongs our outfield D would increase dramatically … well, ok, not dramatically – at least not if we have to put Kubel out in LF.
by montanatwinsfan on Feb 7, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Gomez's defense
I agree his offense was atrocious, but he was the best defensive center fielder in the game. That has to count for something.
Also, Kubel was the 10th best hitter in the entire league. A B seems like a slap on the face after that season.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
A bit too hard on Young
I’d probably have given him a C- He definitely should not be graded lower than Gomez, especially if expectation is what is in play here, as expections were much higher for Gomez than for Delmon. That’s just me. People seem to quickly forget how much better he was in the second half of the season. I just hope he remembers the adjustments that he made. He needs to get off to a reasonable start this year.
Expectations were higher for Gomez
that’s for sure. But at some point, I have to consider that Gomez (+0.7 WAR) outperformed Delmon by about two wins (-1.3 WAR). Can’t say the expectations were that far apart going into the season.
I hope Delmon remembers his late season adjustments next year as well. But I remember going into 2009 thinking the exact same thing…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
aren't these the same stats that say Gomez was worth 80 runs saved?
I just don’t buy that… sorry… Delmon got quite hot in the second half and helped us win some games. You sub gomez for delmon all season long and I’m betting there is no game 163, as we never make it there.
by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 7, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
I don’t know where you got the “80 runs saved” stat, certainly wasn’t from me. But comparing Gomez to Delmon defensively, there’s a pretty clear 20-30 run gap. +10-15 for Gomez versus -10-15 for Delmon. On the larger side when you consider starting Gomez every day means Span plays LF or RF, where he rates well above average as opposed to around average or a little below in CF.
There’s a good sized gap offensively between Delmon and Gomez. Looking at wOBA, last year there was a 35 point gap (.312 to .277). Over 500 PA that corresponds to about 15 runs. Enough to make up for some of the difference defensively, but there’s still a 5-15 run gap.
You note that Delmon was quite hot in the second half and helped us win some games. I agree. But you should also acknowledge his poor hitting in the first half probably cost us some games. And if you sub Gomez in for Delmon, the improved defense probably wins a game or two, making #163 unnecessary. All IMO of course. Definitely something that can be debated.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Young D-, eh...
and without him in the final month…the Twins DO NOT make the playoffs.
Adam, did that move him up from a F-?
But then, winning the division and getting to the playoffs ARE NOT why the season is played. I get that. it’s some WAR game thingy.
sarcasm specifically intended!
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
Do you really think Delmon Young played a major role in getting the Twins to the playoffs?
Ummm…ok. He managed a 770 OPS in September. Awesome. Yes, Delmon was very good, 3 HR in 22 AB in October, but I’d make the argument that if we benched Delmon from day one and put Gomez (no offensive genius himself) in CF, Span in LF, we clinch the division a few games earlier. Delmon was that bad over the full year. Not as bad as at least one other Twin though…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
When did the team finally get their act together?
September/October if I remember correctly. Won 20, lost 6…sort of corresponded with Delmon getting “hot”. My simple math makes record for April-August (137 games) …67-70. Delmon only played in 82 of those games (39-43), in games he had an at bat it was (38-40). When Delmon played the team was 59-49, When he batted the team was 58-46.
Yep, Delmon was the problem.
Just to show how Stats are misleading, Justin Morneau, who is both a far superior player AND has far better stats in every category. When Morneau played, the team was 65-70.
Bottom line. The Twins finished 11 games over .500. When Delmon played the Twins were 10 games above .500. When Delmon did not play the Twins were 28-27 (.509). I find it difficult to figure out HOW the Twins clinch earlier with 83 wins (163 × .509).
When Morneau played the Twins were 65-70, When Justin did not play the Twins were 22-6.
Baseball is a team game.
I’m not hating on Justin, and I am quite sure he played a number of games in August while injured, AND I also suspect he will get a better grade than D-, even though the Twins played .481 ball with Justin in the line-up.
Justin GOOD (.481) Delmon BAD (.546) It must be the New Math they started teaching AFTER I was long since out of school.
Regards,
ps: While I place a much lower regard on these new fangled statistics, AND more importantly, I think this is the first, or second time I have found your analysis lacking. A grade of C or C-, I could understand and probably agree with, D-, is an insult to my intelligence.
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
Playing .509 ball in games Delmon played vs .542 in games without Delmon does not mean that Delmon was the difference between playing .509 and .546.
If you could isolate other factors (and there are clearly many in a baseball game) and increase the sample size you would have a strong argument. Or perhaps if the difference was more than .037.
New fangled stats / old fangled stats
Delmon was good for 1/6th of a season.
The rest, he was very bad.
So in grading system that gives Cuddy a B+ and Kubel a B after career years, a D- for Young is appropriate and consistant with the rest of the grades.
Prof. Peterson doesn’t subscribe to no grade inflation.
by clutterheart on Feb 7, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely wasn't grading Kubel and Cuddyer easily
and it will be interesting to see the full set of grades across the team once I’m finished. Do I end up centered at a “C”, or a bit above or below? Is this due to my grading or the team’s performance? Time will tell…
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
If you travel back in time
and showed me Delmon’s 2009 stats before the season had started, I would have looked at them and sighed a sad, sad sigh. D, C- maybe.
You don’t need new-fangled stats to know he hurt the team for a long time before finally pouring it on at the end of season. I just hope we were seeing the new Delmon.
Did Joe Mauer hurt the team?
I would say not, yet the Twins were 74-64 in games he played, Denard Span 76-69, Nick Punto 68-57, Mike Cuddyer 81-72. The guy with the WORST grade, Carlos Gomez 83-54 participated in all but 4 of the teams wins, and missed 22 of the losses.
My point is that it is a TEAM game. Each game has different individuals who carry the team, AND may even offset the screw-ups of others. Mauer and Morneau did the heavy lifting.
I remember back to the year that the University of Maryland won the NCAA’s (2002?). They had 5 excellent PLAYERS, yet the team did not gel until one of the more talented players was replaced with a less talented TEAM PLAYER. Maryland would NEVER have won the NCAA’s with the original 5.
Oh well, I wish I had watched the games you folks did. Maybe I would have a different opinion.
Back in 1971, my “Introduction to Statistics” professor said “Figures never lie, but liars figure”. His meaning, EVERYONE tends to use stastics which prove their point.
IF .284/.308/.425 is a D-, then an A must be at a minimum .500/.600/.800+
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
It's all about defense
Delmon can’t catch the ball and turns singles into triples. He gives back his offensive production (and more) with his terrible defense. .308 is a horrible OBP for a corner outfielder and a .425 slugging is below average. It is a team game, but Delmon only helped the team in Sept/Oct and then only by performing slightly below average for his position.
Yes, part of the reason the team was better in Sept/Oct was Delmon finally stopped giving away outs at the plate. If he had been worth a darn the rest of the season there wouldn’t have been a game 163. Delmon’s best stretch of ball was average for his position. That’s a C for Sept/Oct which brought his grade up from the F he had up to that point.
You're only looking at offense
If Delmon posted a .284/.308/.425 with league average defense, I would grade that a C-. It’s still a below league average offensive line for a left fielder, and a .308 OBP is a pretty ugly out machine.
Combine that below average line with perhaps the league’s worst outfield defense, and the grade bumps down to a D- for me. A borderline D, IMO, but I couldn’t grade Delmon and Gomez the same.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Your entitled to your opinion
I simply disagree. While Delmon getting hot in September helped us as a team (I’m not arguing that one), I would contend that it had as much to do with O-Cab allowing us to get Casilla out of the lineup, as well as Punto finally showing a pulse at the plate (.292/.407/.375) that month. That’s two (three, if you include Delmon) black holes that were taken out of the lineup.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
Is this schtick?
Just to show how Stats are misleading, Justin Morneau, who is both a far superior player AND has far better stats in every category. When Morneau played, the team was 65-70.
That doesn’t show how “Stats are misleading”. That shows how the particular stat you picked is misleading.
Delmon Young was one of the worst everyday players in Major League Baseball for the first three or four months of the season. If you’re willing to overlook that because he was good during the playoff run, fine, but Adam’s providing his analysis based on the entire 163-game season.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
No Problem...
just seems odd that the Twins were basically a .500 team with their D- player on the bench, and 10 games over .500 when he played.
I’m sure Adam is correct, yet I’ll take 10 games over .500 instead of 1 game over .500 any time, BUT I thought WINNING was the objective. Obviously I am sorely misguided.
At no point have I attributed that +10 exclusively to Delmon Young, I guess you folks are saying the Twins would have been 15-20 games over .500 IF he were released, YET the EVIDENCE (actual games played) DO NOT support that theory.
Bill Smith should correct his error this offseason of resigning Delmon Young. I think Bill Smith can just release Young, since a D- player whould have ZERO OR LESS market value.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
A D- player can definitely have market value
I’d probably give Hardy’s season last year an “F”. And I was still plenty interested in acquiring him, expecting a bounce back year. Hopefully Delmon will bounce back as well. He still has plenty of potential, though less than when we first acquired him.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
As mentioned in the article
the grades conjured up do not rate on a level scale. The grades given are in relation to that players expectations.
If you take that in consideration I think that it was written well.
If I were to use your reasoning I would conclude that someone like Cuddy didn’t do much more then what a starting corner OF should…which probably would be a C or C+ in my opinion. But with the way Adam gave out grades, I’d say a B+ is warranted, since he exceeded expectations considerably. If he had simply met expectations then he would have received a C.
Good explanation
I’ll try to provide a bit more detail about my expectations for each player coming into the season. Might give us a better reference.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
My above post was in reference to
Dragon’s post prior to mine.
Defense
Do you have any access to advanced defensive stats besides UZR, to see if the Twins’ outfielders come out any better on those? I’m curious whether they jibe all that well, or if there’s a chance that Delmon and Cuddyer are actually mediocre (or even simply below average) but hurt by some peccadillo of the UZR system (for example, its slight bias against guys who play in front of tall outfield walls, which likely hurts Cuddy a bit). I’m also wondering if Cuddyer and Young are hurt by the fact that their outfield arms are feared to the point that they don’t get a ton of opportunities to cut down runners, assuming here that UZR doesn’t give any credit to the “arm” component for runners who don’t attempt to take extra bases. Adam, I seem to recall your “little things” calculations attempting to rate fear of outfield arms (giving credit to the defender when a runner doesn’t go), but I don’t remember any specifics.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Unfortunately, until MLB comes out with "HitFx"
I don’t have access to meaningful advanced fielding statistics. Right now, the MLB Gameday data I use is limited for each batted ball, providing only a location where the ball is fielded, not where it lands, etc. So for base hits I would get misleading results. But I’ve put the infrastructure in place so that once HitFx comes along with more meaningful batted ball data to generate my own advanced metrics.
As for outfield arms, etc. Yes, I can give credit to the outfielder when a runner doesn’t attempt to advance. This is how I would break down the expected runs on the defensive side. But I haven’t looked to much at the defensive side due to the data problems noted above. Any “overall” stats would be meaningless.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I thought
I was wondering more about stuff like +/- (that’s not publicly available anywhere, is it?) or any other advanced defensive metrics I wasn’t aware of, not necessarily homegrown stuff, but your point probably stands.
Off-topic, have you done a new set of “little things” analysis for 2009? I’m curious how stable those numbers are (both at an individual and team level) year over year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Cuddyer may be hurt by the wall
The RF in Metrodome was small which can cover up a bad defender but it also cuts down on his opportunities and impacts his UZR. LF in Fenway is an extreme version of this.
LF in Metrodome is tough, I would expect Delmon to regress to his “away” numbers next year.
It depends on how UZR treats balls hit off the fence
if it penalizes Cuddyer for a ball off the baggy, then that’s a severe problem with the model. I remember reading at one point that UZR’s model doesn’t work that way but I have no way to verify though. One thing I do know: if UZR uses MLB Gameday data, then I don’t see any way it would be able to avoid penalizing a fielder for a ball hit off the wall.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Clarify
I suspect UZR uses other batted ball data generally not available to the public. But I don’t know for sure.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Home/Away UZR
Does that data live anywhere you know of? FanGraphs doesn’t appear to have defensive splits, and I’m not sure what other sites carry UZR data.
Adam – I was under the same impression as DJL44 regarding balls off the baggy. I just tried some googling, and I can’t find any concrete description of the problem, just a bunch of people talking about it like it exists.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
As I understand UZR and Fangraphs
The creator of UZR agreed to license the UZR model to Fangraphs, which allows Fangraphs to update on a daily basis using available play by play data. It depends on which PBP data is used by UZR. If it’s one of the pay for data services, there very well may be good batted ball data. But if it’s MLB Gameday, then there would be a problem as the data does not indicate whether a ball hit off the fence. Which would mean any model would penalize the outfielder for not catching the ball even though it appears to be within range. Even worse for MLB Gameday data, the only location provided is the spot where the ball is fielded. So for a high fence, the ball may very well be fielded near the fielder’s original position.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
What was Jones's UZR when he played out there?
In 2002, he had a 15.2 UZR in left field. From 2003 to 2005, his UZR in right was underwater. It wasn’t in Cuddyer territory, but -5 is not good. Jones was a very good fielder.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Twins Geek
Talked about this a while ago. I tried to find the link but failed.
I think his basic premise was using UZR for right field / left field needs to have context. – Especially right field.
To paraphrase further, there were no above average right fielders in 2010.
That was the problem
Even worse for MLB Gameday data, the only location provided is the spot where the ball is fielded. So for a high fence, the ball may very well be fielded near the fielder’s original position.
From what I recall reading about it, the UZR problem with the Baggie (there’s the same problem with the Green Monster and other tall fences) was that it counted a ball off it as a 327-foot non-homer that wasn’t converted into an out, which fell in the fielder’s zone and counted against him.
I did a bit more refined googling just of TwinsGeek (based on clutterheart’s comment below), and I found some stuff:
TwinsGeek post on UZR – of particular note is a comment from Parker Hageman of Over the Baggy detailing the “Baggy Problem”.
The post about “above-average right fielders” – ubelmann showed up in the comments and figured it out. Basically, the problem was that the right fielders with enough innings only comprised a little over half of the right field innings in the league, and it turns out that the part-time right fielders were much better defenders than full-time right fielders, in general.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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