HotStove.com: Can the Twins Become an Elite AL Team in 2010?
Nick Nelson and I are back with another quick hit over at the Hot Stove, along with Dan Wade of Baseball Digest Daily.
about 2 years ago
Jesse
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7 key questions:
- Liriano: Can he return to something near 2006 form? If so the team has the one thing it lacked since Santana.
- Outfield defense: With a predominantly fly ball staff, can they make enough outs? If so, the team will not have any defensive weaknesses.
- Nathan: Was his late season slump just a tired arm or the beginning of the end?
- Morneau: Can he stay strong into October? They will need his power in any successful playoff run.
- Delmon: Will he take 2009 lessons into the season this year? If not, left field is a serious liability.
- Hardy: Can he rebound to 2008 form? If not, the bottom of the order looks weak.
- Cuddyer: Will this be the 2006/2009 Cuddy or the 2007/2008 Cuddy?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Defense (not just outfield)
Is a major concern.
Hardy’s range is limited.
Hudson’s range will be limited.
3b is questionable.
Outfield is slow.
To make it worse, twins pitchers don’t miss many bats. Expect to see a lot of bloopers, balls in the gap and ground balls that get through the infield.
If our offense can’t compensate for the more runs allowed, we might find ourselves struggling to even make the playoffs.
Hardy's UZR is consistently well above average
Hardy is clearly the best fielder in this bunch: Cabrera, Punto, Bartlett, Castro, Guzman, and Harris. I’m not worried about short. And, really, second isn’t much of a concern either. Gold Gloves are won on reputation, but you don’t win gold gloves without being an above average fielder. And Morneau is one of the top five first basemen in the AL. Third base is questionable, but it won’t be worse than last year, when Crede missed 50 games.
I would qualify your outfield statement. Span compares favorably to Granderson in center—not elite, but above average. And if he doesn’t have to play a different position every day, he should be better out there. The corners are the questions. My only hope for Delmon is he’ll be quicker with 30 lbs off his frame. Cuddy is Cuddy. His range is well below average. His arm is well above average. Net, he’s a little below average. That’s not a horrible outfield defense by league standards, but it’s below Twins’ standards. With a fly-ball staff, that’s a concern.
One more thing: I would rather have a stellar shortstop and a decent center fielder than a stellar center fielder and a poor shortstop. The Gomez/Hardy trade improves our team defense.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hardy has above average range?
Really?
Color me suprised.
With his turtlesque speed I just assumed his range was limited.
I hope you’re right and our infield is not a sieve. But I still think our defense is our biggest weakness.
by clutterheart on Feb 8, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Hardy isn't really fast, this is true.
But he positions himself well, which helps. I think he reacts quickly, can move short distances, better than he can run station-to-station.
I do agree that outfield defense is a weakness. I’d also say team speed isn’t a big plus (perhaps a reason to keep Casilla on the bench?), and that the rotations…okay, really isn’t a weakness, but with a bad bounce or two won’t be a strength either. We need Baker, Slowey and Liriano to all pitch like they’re capable of piching.
Would we rather have
Casilla and punto up the middle? NO!!!!! Hardy, Hudson is an upgrade overall
by Bert: Oh, we're live? on Feb 8, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
I think Milwaukee fans are just bitter
He’s not that slow. He’s not as fast as Bartlett, true. But he’s faster than Ripkin, who used to have very good range because of positioning and anticipation. Also, I think Hardy looked slow especially when he hit after Weeks. Most everybody looks slow after Weeks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Put the word 'some' in there
There is definitely a core of haters for the guy. I never really figured it out. I think part of it is the high praise he got from the tv and radio guys including visiting teams. He was picked as an all-star by the players. So much effusive praise seems to lead to the ‘not that good’ from some people.
As crazy as it may sound, being the ‘hunk’ of the team seems like it had something to do with it.
Like I say, I never really figured it out, but the guy routinely made plays on the other side of second base. He could have excellent range. He’s also tall and gangly and looks like it when he runs.
I just hope Gogo can get on base at a .330 clip or so.
If GoGo gets on base at that clip
He’ll be a great player. It means he’s hitting over .300. I saw subtle improvement from him in plate discipline. But he still has a lot to learn in the pitch recognition department. I also think he’s such a high motor guy, he just is not built for patience.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yeah
Some have said he looks slower than he is. Not in the same class, but Robert Smith always seemed slow, except when he scored 80 yard touchdowns, which he did a dozen times a year, oh, and when he won NCAA track meets in the 100 and 200-yard dash. He just had such a long stride, his legs didn’t have to move fast for him to run fast.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The opposite of that was Rivas
His legs could go a million MPH, and he still couldn’t get to anything up the middle or in the hole.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You're worried about SS defense
because Hardy is there. This is based on… on… comments about his speed?
I think infielder range and running speed are just completely different things
It’s more about positioning and reaction time. Utley and Crede are another two who come to mind as rangey, but not fast.
I would agree
Doesn’t Delmon have a pretty legit arm as well?
by Bert: Oh, we're live? on Feb 8, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Dunno about this one
“Morneau is one of the top five first basemen in the AL”
Kotchman, Teixeira, Youkilis, Morales are better. Maybe he ties Cabrera for 5th. That’s closer to average than plus.
I agree with you about having a solid SS. I’m excited about the middle infield and Span is going to be average in CF. They should be fine up the middle which is most important.
I think I'd still give Morneau top 5 status
I agree Teixeira and Youkilis are better than Morneau. I’d also argue that Miguel Cabrera is a better player than Justin.
But I disagree about Kotchman and Morales. Kotchman just doesn’t have a big enough bat for a 1B. I’ve got great hopes for Morales but I think it’s too early to call him a star 1B based upon one full season of play.
Maybe Carlos Pena is better than Morneau, but it’s hard to predict Pena – a monster 2007, then a good 2008, then a decent 2009. Even then, I think Morneau winds up being ranked 4-5 among AL 1B.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Defensively, I'd rank them thus
1. Youkilis
2. Teixeira
3. Pena
5. Morneau
6. Morales
7. Kotchman
8. Cabrera
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Oh, and there's no number 4, because the first three are a cut above
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think I misread your post
I thought we were talking overall. Defensively, I have a lot of trouble ranking first basemen – just hard to quantify. I would probably agree with your list, but I might move Kotchman up a slot or two.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
The list is just defense
Morneau is definitely better than Kotchman and Morales overall but they both have a better glove than Justin. Daric Barton may be a better fielder also.
Well
I confess I have not seen enough of them to judge. And I don’t really trust UZR for first basemen because range in the hole is minor compared with digging out low throws and such. I just know Morneau is very good at that, and at catching foul pops. He’s positively Hrbeckesque in that skill.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Morneau>>>>>Cabrera
Sorry. Morneau has made himself into a very good, and very underrated first baseman.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
CF versus SS
If we were only looking at those two positions, I’d agree. Rather have an average CF and stellar SS than vice versa. But losing Gomez has a secondary effect on the defense, as Span rates much better in LF or RF than in CF. Though I think Span’s CF ratings will improve playing there every day. There’s a secondary effect of having Hardy as well (Punto moves from SS to somewhere else), which may cancel out the Span secondary effect.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
We will be better...
Our lineup is pretty solid. Best most of us have seen in awhile. It’s going to come down to how we match up with whoever we play in the playoffs. At this point I think we have one of the best lineups. In the top 3 with New York and Seattle just of the top of my head. Our SP has to pitch well in the playoffs. Pretty much anyone we play is going to have alot more talent then us.
Seattle doesn't have a particularly good offensive lineup
they win based entirely on defense.
I feel like
they have upgraded with additions of Figgins and Bradley. Ichiro and Figgins as one – two is pretty nice. Even at 8 they have Jack Wilson. Not an easy out and a guy I would have liked Minnesota to go after prior to getting Cabrera.
The Twins still have a much better lineup
as do the Rangers, Rays, Red Sox etc…
by ckb on Feb 8, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
+1
If Seattle makes it to the postseason, it will be on pitching and defense.
They have a lot of players with good defense and below average bats. Kotchman at 1B. Jack Wilson at SS (even if he does put a lot of balls in play, he still makes a lot of outs). Franklin Gutierrez doesn’t have a bad bat for a CF, but all of his value is in defense as well. Last year all of Jose Lopez’s value came from his defense, though it’s hard to predict where he will end up next year. And Griffey will provide below average offense at DH.
Figgans and Bradley definitely help their offense, but I still don’t think they are a top rated offensive team. They might rank around average if they have a good year, below average if they don’t.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
I’m just not sleeping on the Seattle lineup this year. Texas is pretty solid too.
Boston and Detroit probably taken a step back.
I’m fairly new to these boards, but what is with the +1 Subjects?
Answering questions
Liriano – no, but I’ll take 190 IP with a 4.00 ERA
OF defense – this is a legitimate weakness but it won’t hurt them as much in Target Field as it would have in Metrodome.
Nathan – should be fine in 2010
Morneau – I’ll take odds his Sept this year will be better than last year.
Delmon – Will be covered up by platooning with Kubel and look better than he actually is
Hardy – will rebound and be one of the best SS in baseball
Cuddyer – Average them all together.
Delmon
We can only hope that Delmon’s weight loss helps his quickness and jump on flyballs. If i remember right LENIII stated that he was playing at 240 last year and has lost 29 pounds this offseason, that has to help, right?
Yep
And getting around on fastballs.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
as long as his brain tells him
grass is not as slippery as ice… Delmon should be fine but damn he sometimes he looks like bambi on ice out there…
if bambi had flames up her arms…legs….
Yes
Yes we can become an elite team.
by Bert: Oh, we're live? on Feb 8, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions
Yes
With a few breaks going our way, decent overall health (especially in the rotation) and no major regression from our stars, I could see this team winning 95+ games. At that point, it becomes a tournament with the Yankees and others once the playoffs roll around. And our mental issues against NY become our biggest challenge to overcome.
Defense is clearly our biggest issue as a team. Last year, according to UZR we ranked third from last at -37.3 runs, ahead of only the Mets and Royals. I think we’ll be a little better this year, but probably still in the lower third of the league. But on paper we appear to have the hitting and pitching to overcome a below average defense.
ahead of only the Mets and Royals
Maybe we joined The Contest, but only in defense?
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
true
I wasn’t being serious. But any time the Mets and the Royals are mentioned together, I immediately think of The Contest
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I just had to distance the Twins from them
lumping them with the Mets and Royals is terrifying, even in jest
by ckb on Feb 8, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Remember when he criticized the Twins front office for not doing enough to succeed?
His criticism of the Twins ownership was justified. But it’s ironic that Johan was traded to an organization with a reputation for a notoriously bad front office. Then the Mets go on to miss the postseason in both 2008 and 2009, while the Twins would have been in the playoffs in 2008 with Johan’s help and would have avoided game 163 in 2009. And the Twins have a great 2009 offseason, while the Mets bring in Gary Matthews Jr… (and Jason Bay, to be fair). Poor Johan indeed.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
Blurb
I read the other day somewhere that the Twins will have a higher payroll than the Dodgers.
Isn't there an ugly divorce going on with the owner?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"All morons hate it when you call them a moron." -Holden Caufield
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 8, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that was the Padres
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
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