Fun With CHONE Projections: Twins Infielders
by Jesse on Feb 8, 2010 11:24 AM EST
in Quick Hits
31 comments
Don't Look! No cheating!
Player A: .267/.333/.358
Player B: .249/.314/.359
Player C: .242/.333/.319
Player D: .256/.311/.368
Player E: .260/.321/.383
These are CHONE triple slash projections for four of Minnesota's infielders (and one now former Twins infielder). In alphabetical order, the five players are Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Steven Tolleson and Matt Tolbert. Who is who?
Vote, and then find the answers after the jump.
Player A: Alexi Casilla
Player B: Steven Tolleson
Player C: Nick Punto
Player D: Matt Tolbert
Player E: Brendan Harris
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Makes Sense
No big deal, I got it. :P
Projections make perfect sense. Its funny to compare Punto and Tolleson’s CHONE projections. Well, maybe sad is a better word for it.
Exactly right. Pretty mediocre across the board.
With one of five being a plus defensive player.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Harris projects at a .700 OPS
If he can play average defense at third (we still don’t know about that) he’d be passable. A Punto/Harris platoon is probably a league average third baseman.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 8, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Harris and Punto
predictions made it easy to tell. Punto has high walk rate. And of all those guys harris probably has the most extra base hits.
It was the same for me
Those were the only two I felt sure about, the other three were guesses.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 8, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Harris
was the giveaway for me. Figured he’d have the highest slugging percentage among the three. OBP couldn’t really do it for me since there were two projections with .333.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
Harris was the big giveaway for me as well. I also was reasonably sure about Punto, since I figured he was the only one who’d put up a 9% walk rate.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Punto was obvious
low average, decent OBP from walks, and no power whatsoever.
Yep
That’s the one I looked for too.
Also, all of a sudden I don’t find myself wishing Casilla away so quickly. Still wishing him away, just not as quickly.
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Feb 8, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Off topic, but...
I realize we talked a couple months ago about how Wigginton was not really a fit for the Twins and there was no reason to add him, but it makes more sense all of a sudden.
We have Harris, Punto, Tolbert, and Casilla, and we can only have 3 of them on the big league club. We also have Perkins who might be traded. Baltimore is a team that would likely take Perkins, given where they’re at in rebuilding (and the staff they currently have). Granted, they might not want a backup 3B who isn’t as good as Wigginton in return, but Harris is more versatile. What about a Harris/Perkins for Wigginton trade?
Tolbert would go to AAA, Casilla would backup SS/2B. Wigginton and Punto can compete for playing time at 3B. We retain flexibility, and with Harris out, Wigginton would only add $1+ mil to the payroll. If Punto starts, you have a righty in Wigginton and a lefty in Thome off the bench. If Wigginton starts, both Punto and Casilla are available for pinch-running/defensive purposes.
What do you guys think?
You make good point.
But I think we have a surplus of IF, I don’t see much of a benefit of adding another. Especially after reading Jesse’s last fun with Chone post. Wiggington would fit right in.
What are you going to deal? It would have to be two players to clear a roster spot and Perkins +1 is worth more to me then Wiggington.
True
At least Wigginton carries a little more wait with SLG%, and I would certainly trade Harris for Wigginton straight up, given that we have other versatile infielders. At this point, you have to believe that if not Liriano, Duensing will get the no. 5 spot. And Perkins will pout if he’s in the bullpen (or AAA). I realize Perkins CAN be effective, but Liriano can be amazing. Not to mention we have a bunch of guys who could be no. 5 starters.
You do have a point, and I don’t really think the Twins will make this trade. Its just interesting to think about.
In addition
Who would you rather have as a righty off the bench, Wigginton or Punto/Harris/Tolbert/Casilla? We have a glut of infielders, but are they a glut of GOOD infielders? If we can improve, we should do it.
CHONE Wigginton
.271/.326/.451. An upgrade, but not a huge one. CHONE has him about 10 runs better than Harris over the course of 120 games.
-16.4 UZR/150 at 3b career. When those are your career numbers, and you’re 33, well, you really aren’t a 3b. CHONE has him projected as a below average first basemen.
It would be nice to have a decent bat off the bench, but if they wanted someone who couldn’t field his position, they should have signed Troy Glaus. he at least hits enough to make up for it. If Wigginton is an upgrade, it’s a slight one, and you lose the versatility that Harris has on our limited bench. I don’t know if I’d do Harris for Wigginton straight up, no way in hell I’d give them perkins also.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 8, 2010 12:55 PM EST reply actions
Very good point
I’m just curious, what is Harris’ UZR at SS and 3B?
As a bench bat though, he is much scarier. You lose some versatility, but Punto and Hardy as the left side of the infield provide great range.
Harris' UZR is meh
It’s right around 0, which is neutral. It’s better at third than short, which makes sense because he’s slow footed. But he has very soft hands and a strong arm. So he’s a third baseman defensively. He’s just a short stop offensively.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Okay
About what I would have guessed. I didn’t realize Wigginton was THAT bad defensively, although we would have another backup 1B without removing Cuddyer from RF or playing Thome in the field. I still would do Harris for Wigginton straight up, although unless we got a prospect (which Baltimore would not give up) I would not include Perkins.
I really don’t think they want to bring in anymore 3rd basemen with Valencia getting so close to being ready.
Yes
I think Valencia will turn some heads in the spring and will be the regular third baseman by midseason.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
A bench of......
Punto and Harris with Thome and a catcher strengthens the Twins.
Say goodbye to Casilla. Can always slide Harris over to second in 2011.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Punto upside
Punto may have a CHONE projection of that, but if he gets a normal BABIP and posts a BA of over 270, suddenly his triple slash stats look pretty decent. Between Harris, Tolbert, ans Tolleson, I just don’t see the upside, however marginal, that Punto and Casilla have—despite these indistinguishable CHONE projections.
PECOTA posts improve/breakout percentages; maybe these should be factored into the discussion.
by AM. on Feb 8, 2010 8:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions
And monkeys might flly out of my butt
if he gets a normal BABIP and posts a BA of over 270
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
For example
Punto in 2006 and 2008;
284 and 290 BA….OBP around 340/350. Those were with above average BABIP; let’s just hope for 300 BABIP for Punto; his plate discipline has actually been improving.
by AM. on Feb 8, 2010 10:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Punto's AVG and BABIP has correlated pretty well with his LD% and SO%
2006: .290 AVG, .338 BABIP, 14.8% SO, 23.6% LD
2007: .210 AVG, .257 BABIP, 19.1% SO, 14.6% LD
2008: .284 AVG, .337 BABIP, 16.9% SO, 20.5% LD
2009: .228 AVG, .281 BABIP, 19.5% SO, 19.4% LD
In 2006, 2007 and 2008, it was pretty clear that his BA was driven by hitting (or not hitting) line drives and striking out. In other words, apparently not due to luck. In 2009, we saw a BABIP that was lower than would be expected from a 19.4% LD%. This tells me there was a bit of bad luck last year. But not too much considering the high strikeout rate.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
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