Just like everyone else on this board, I am completely overexcited for the 2010 season to begin.  This is arguably the best Twins team on paper since 1991 and I think we have a legitimate shot at making some noise in the postseason.  However, I think we as fans need to temper our recent "World Series bound" mentality a bit because there are vital question marks going into 2010 that will make or break this squad.

5.  Third Base

From all accounts, it appears that Nick Punto and Brendan Harris will be manning the hot corner this year for the hometown nine.  It is likely that we will see Danny Valencia at some point as well, but I firmly believe the Twins will stick with this seasoned combination unless it fails miserably.  The platoon should feature Harris starting against lefties and Punto wielding his wiffle bat against right-handers.  Harris hits lefties fairly well with a career batting average of .297 and an OPS of .785.  Harris hit rock bottom (.238 avg) against righties last year and although Punto isn’t a world beater by any means, his defense makes him a logical start instead.  Punto’s splits are near identical, but he has shown better OBP skills hitting from the left side.  Last year he coaxed a walk in 15% of his at bats as a lefty and that skill will be significant in turning over the batting order.

With the lineup constructed as is, any production from this group will be a bonus from the 9-spot but strong defense is essential to this platoon playing a key role on this squad.  For all his faults, Punto is a pretty strong defensive presence and his best position is arguably third base.  Harris isn’t a butcher at third, but he is fairly limited with a decent arm making up for some of his deficiencies.  For the Twins to be successful, Punto and Harris need to admirably play the roles of Mike Pagliarulo and Scott Leius.      

4.  Outfield Defense

This topic has been a bit of a hot topic for many on this board since the trade of Carlos Gomez.  The Twins will certainly miss Gomez’s incredible range in centerfield and there is discussion over how Denard Span will fill that important position full-time.  I personally have complete confidence in Span.  He has incredible speed, takes good routes and makes sensational catches.  Although UZR does not look kindly on Span’s CF capabilities, the sample size is small.  This team employs several fly ball-heavy pitchers, so Span will need to position each hitter especially well this year to hide the lack of range of Cuddyer, Young and Kubel.  Cuddyer’s UZR was an atrocious -16.9 in right field last year and his impeccable ability to play the caroms off the wall will now be challenged with a new wall surface and distinctive geometrics.  Young is an adventure in left field, but I actually believe he will improve in 2010.  I don’t think there has been a player that has struggled with the Metrodome lights more than Delmon Young and he must be stoked to be changing fields.  Word is that he has dropped nearly 30 pounds this offseason, so perhaps that will improve his range of motion as well.  Span’s ability to cover ground in center and the corner outfielders playing as close to average as possible is another key for the 2010 Twins.        

3. The Return of Kevin Slowey & Pat Neshek

With one of the top lineups in the American League, most will agree that our hopes of entering the postseason hinge on the shoulders of the pitching staff.  The return of both Kevin Slowey and Pat Neshek could be a boon to the team’s ability to thrive as a staff.  When healthy, Kevin Slowey and Pat Neshek are two of the most important arms on the team.  Slowey has teased Twins fans with his impressive pitching acumen since a call-up in 2007.  In September of 2008, Slowey was struck on the right wrist by a line drive that aggravated a bone spur.  Slowey attempted to rest his wrist in the offseason and then pitch through it in 2009, but that experiment ended in surgery in July.  Between two rough starts to begin the season and his final two before succumbing to the knife, Slowey allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of 12 outings.  Those numbers show Slowey’s ability to be an effective #2 starter.  If healthy, Slowey could be counted on for 180 innings, 130 strike outs and an ERA around 3.75.   

Perhaps equally as important is the long-awaited return of Pat Neshek.  Pat has missed nearly two seasons after delaying surgery to a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.  Neshek has kept us updated via his blog and Twitter of his recent pitching sessions and eyes will be watching him closely once he finally lets loose and faces live batters in the coming weeks.  When healthy, Neshek is a nasty submariner who averages over a strikeout an inning.  The Twins will most likely take it slow with Pat to start the season with low leverage situations or perhaps even a stint in AAA.  The hope will be to let his arm build up to the all-important eighth inning role in September and October when it really matters. 

2. Regression vs. Progression

The key to any team making the postseason is having a select number of players reach "career year" numbers.  Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier and Joe Mauer all had extra special seasons in 2009.  The first question is can they sustain those lofty numbers?  The second question is if they cannot, who will step up and fill the void? 

I don’t think anybody expects our hometown hero to win the Slash Triple Crown once again, but will his numbers dramatically fall?  If you average out Bill James, CHONE and Marcel projections, Mauer is predicted to hit around .330 with 18 homeruns and 90 RBI.  I think we’d all be ecstatic with that line!  Those same projections predict that Guerrier will struggle to keep his ERA below 4, Cuddyer will have difficulty hitting 20 dingers and Kubel will regress to an average designated hitter.  I personally do not think the forecast is that bleak, but those numbers are certainly possible. 

So who steps up then?  Nobody predicted the starting pitching staff to be as poor as they were in 2009.  I don’t think there is anywhere but up for this group, especially Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano.  Justin Morneau is returning from a season-ending back injury and has a great shot at career numbers with a stellar lineup hitting in front of him.  J.J. Hardy had a horrendous year in Milwaukee, but starts fresh in Minnesota and will see better pitches in the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.  The bullpen could be fantastic, flush with impressive depth.  With no white flag (Brian Bass/Bobby Keppel) or AAAA pitcher in the pen, Gardy will be able to put pitchers in their correct spots.  Finally, Delmon Young adjusted his batting stance at the tail end of last year and it paid dividends.  Could this be the year, Delmon finally hits 20 homeruns?  If the Twins are going to make the postseason, the team as a collective, will need to find the perfect regression/progression balance. 

1. Is the Franchise back?

To me, this is the biggest question mark for 2010.  Francisco Liriano was a bit of an enigma in 2009, although he certainly did not have luck on his side as most peripheral stats will suggest.  Many fans were ready to trade or relegate him to the bullpen and even the Twins may be considering the latter after offering him a contract with split incentives for innings and appearances.  However, that has all changed once word came out of the Dominican Republic that the Franchise was wicked dominant this winter.  Reports and Francisco himself have declared that his fastball has regained its missing velocity and that his slider is once again as feared as in 2006.  Even post surgery, Liriano has notched good strikeout numbers and a solid contact percentage against hitters, but his velocity and command have been lacking.  In 2006, Francisco Liriano was the best pitcher in baseball.  The one thing our beloved Twins are lacking right now is that #1 bulldog pitcher.  Francisco doesn’t have to be the sick and wrong 2006 version, but a decent improvement upon his 2008 numbers could be the difference between this team making or missing the World Series.  

So what other questions do you think the 2010 Minnesota Twins face?  What player do you see having a career year?  Is the Franchise really back? 

Thanks for your discussion and Go Twins!