A Case for Delmon Young
Is he due for a breakout season?
Every spring we're treated to a typical batch of optimism. This guy is in the best shape of his life, this guy's arm couldn't feel any better, this guy's injury is in the past, this guy is built like a brick. Last season, Joe Crede looked like Paul Bunyan. This year, apart from Francisco Liriano being hyped so much it makes me nervous, we're getting some Delmon Young love straight out of the oven.
Apparently he's lost 29 pounds over the winter, which would bring him down to the 200 range. He's never been svelte with the Twins by any stretch of the imagination, but dropping that much weight should be a good thing. In theory, if you're slow and you lose weight you should be a bit quicker. If you're bigger and you trim up, you should be a bit more agile. Basically you should be healthier, and this is a good thing.
If you want to be positive about Delmon's potential for a breakout season, there's a lot of circumstantial evidence you can point to in addition to the hard work he's put in.
Exhibit A: The Strong Finish
Right, so he's done this before. In his late-season debut in 2006 he swatted a promising .317/.336/.476 as a 20-year old, but more recently with the Twins is where he's made a name for himself. In September of 2008 he raked, .330/.368/.455, and last season was no different as from September 1 through the end of the season belted to the tune of a .340/.359/.505 triple slash. When you hit like that it doesn't really matter that you don't walk.
So just like this time last year, we hope that Delmon takes whatever he picked up on at the end of last season and can translate it to this spring starting on Day One. Hope springs eternal.
Exhibit B: Slow Starts Do Not A Career Make
Here are four players, and their career triple slash lines through their age-23 seasons. Which one is Delmon? Which one is Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente? The other two are Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford.
Player A: .289/.320/.421
Player B: .290/.322/.416
Player C: .279/.309/.395
Player D: .285/.326/.425
Obivously these numbers aren't in a vacuum. Rocco's career has been derailed by injuries, and there's no doubt that Crawford has a different tool set, but the point is this: Delmon's future isn't written in stone. At least not yet, when he's just turned 24.
Exhibit C: Peripherals
Sometimes looking at a guy's peripherals will tell you about trends earlier than you see them in traditional statistics. Obivously walk rate (down to 2.9% from a career-high 5.6% in '08) isn't a positive thing, but the power is starting to show itself a bit more.
Young's isolated power jumped 27 points from '08 to '09, as more fly balls left the park (11.4% of flies actually, which is right around average). That .142 iso isn't anything to write home about unless you're a second baseman, but it got better. If it continues to get better, even if his on-base skills continue to stagnate, then there's nothing wrong with having a number eight hitter with power.
Exhibit D: Projection Systems Still Like Him
They don't love him, but they like him. Bill James (.297/.332/.437), Marcel (.288/.328/.423) and especially CHONE (.305/.339/.454) all bank on Young showing some improvement this season. Obviously the love of the tools and raw skills will go away eventually, but not yet.
He's an aggressive hitter, and that might never change. But if he isn't going to change what kind of a hitter he is, we can hope he gets better at the kind of hitter he is. By avoiding guessing games, identifying pitches and understanding what situation he's in, he's a talented enough hitter that those things alone should make him more productive. Simply by putting himself in a better situation, not necessarily by suddenly deciding to be a walk machine, those power numbers that inched upwards last season might just take off.
Oh, and for the record: A) Crawford, B) Young, C) Clemente, D) Baldelli
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I'm very bullish on Young this season
I think he has an outside shot at swatting 20 home runs, though I think it will more likely be around 15. He didn’t walk more, but he did see more pitches during his hot streak, which I like.
Here’s one of the biggest reasons why I’m bullish on him… His success should be reproducable. Read this:
http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2009/12/evolution-of-delmon-young.html
by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 9, 2010 8:28 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good Article.
Enjoyed reading it…gives me a sliver of hope.
Sure I'll give you that he is young (age)
but one thing everyone forgets is that he has had how many years in the majors. So if your going to use the excuse he is young. I’m just going to say he has had three years in the majors and hasn’t made much progress. A player who has had three years is going to probably show some improvement. All he is going to be at best…is a DH.
I hope you're right
I seem to remember having some hope coming into 2009 because of some mechanical changes at the end of the 2008 season. So I’ll wait to see it on the field. In order for Delmon to become a valuable outfielder for this ballclub, we really need him to put together a line like .290/.330/.480. That, combined with improved (say, in the -5 UZR range) defense could put Delmon in the 2 WAR range. A signficant improvement from 2009, but I think it’s achievable.
If he doesn’t perform, we’ve got Kubel in LF and Thome at DH to fall back on.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
I'd be fine if he just isn't atrocious this year
It would be a big improvement over last year.
Once he isn’t bad anymore then he can move on to being actually good.
by ckb on Feb 9, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Best line of that article
After all, balls that hit the turf have the damnedest time resulting in a home run.
I truly laughed
That video on the right (in the link) says 1000 words
He really looks like he just has effortless power—let’s see more!
Thanks for the link diehard and the article Jesse. Delmon will continue to be one of the more interesting Twins question marks this season.
But reality is...
As much as a really want to believe that Young has turned it around. I just can’t.
He has consistently shown that he improves the last month or couple months of the season. It’s nothing new. Gardy and him have had multiple conversations in regards to how Young feels he is not a 1st half player. Gardy told him he doesn’t believe such a thing and its a mental issue.
The article that diehard posted and Jesse’s article are both good reading that make me pause before throwing in the towel. I’d rather play Punto everyday over Young due to the fact he at least brings a glove to the game.
Young will not hit more then 15 homers this season. He isn’t going to suddenly learn to take a walk. I wouldn’t be suprised to see his average raise. Pitchers are going to throw the ball right down the middle because they’d rather see him put the ball in play then see the top of the order again.
I don’t even want to get started on his defense. I mean if he was our DH, I probably resist posting my thoughts. But Kubel is and for good reason. Jesse shows us a differenct prospective with the player stats of different individuals. But all those guys had a glove. Right now I sort of wish the Twins would sign Rocco to a contract. He would be the defensive OF’er we need and he is a right handed bat off the bench, AND a pinch runner which we might actually need this year. Heck, play him in left and use Young on the bench. The only problem with that is then you don’t have a threat on the bench to PR, he is more of a late inning defensive liability then replacement and your not sure what stick your getting in a PH situation.
Defense
Yes, his defense is horrible, but he isn’t in the Metrodome anymore, so he shouldn’t have the problem of losing the ball in the roof that it seemed like he always had. And yes, he struggled on the road as well, but losing nearly 30 pounds can’t do anything but help his range. And, the one plus to him in the outfield is that he has a very strong arm, maybe not Cuddyer strong, but still strong. So I think that he will improve his defense this year as well, he will still likely be the weak link, but just hopefully not as weak.
"Pitchers are going to throw the ball right down the middle because they’d rather see him put the ball in play then see the top of the order again."
Man I hope that’s true. Watching him last year, even when he was playing well near the end, I felt like EVEN I could strike him out just by throwing 7 straight unhittable pitches—he’s going to swing at at least 3 of them, right? (ok, in reality I’d probably accidently let a few drift over the plate, maybe hit him a few times, and any 3rd strike I got would probably be a wild pitch, but anyway…). I always felt pitchers were doing us a favor by coming anywhere near the strike zone.
Can anyone dig up a stat measuring swings at pitches outside the strike zone? I feel like Delmon has to be up there on that one.
Last year Delmon swung at 37% of pitches outside the strike zone.
2009: 37%
2008: 39.9%
2007: 41.3%
League average is right around 25%, give or take a point.
So…he’s improving?
Wow.
2007 was rough.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
Well while those are very moderate improvements, I really feel like he might be able to take a bigger step forward, if given the job. I feel like whenever he has been in the lineup multiple days in a row he has always hit better, and with that he might be just getting more comfortable overall, which I can only imagine would include better plate discipline. He cut nearly 3% off of 2008’s number, if he can another 4% off this year so he is only swinging at 1 out of every 3 pitches outside the zone I think his walk rate will swing up quite a bit. Quick question for you Jesse, I don’t know where you are digging this stuff up, but what are Mauer’s or Span’s numbers on this statistic? Actually what about Thome as well, all seem very disciplined, just wondering which is the most so.
Mauer, from FanGraphs:
2004: 14.2%
2005: 17.6%
2006: 19.2%
2007: 17.7%
2008: 18.4%
2009: 20.6%
Career: 18.7%
by ckb on Feb 9, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Thome since WSox:
2006: 14.8%
2007: 16.0%
2008: 19.2%
2009: 20.3%
Career: 17.6%
by ckb on Feb 9, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Those are all pretty comparable numbers. I think Mauer, although his rate seems to be rising, is impressive due to the fact that he doesn’t see many good pitches. Same with Thome, they are pitched around, so even the balls they do swing at were likely either close to the strike zone, or very nasty pitches. As for Span, he is probably one of the most patient hitters I have ever seen, and definately an ideal leadoff man.
Awesome.
Thanks for the numbers dudes. So my throw-7-unhittable-pitches theory seems about right for getting a strikeout from Young.
7 outside the zone * .40 swingage = 2.8, or 93% of a strikeout.
Ok, nevermind, on the 6th pitch he'd either K or walk
Not sure where I got 7.
Foul balls
He fouls off the pitches off the plate pretty often. You still have to throw one pitch across the plate to K him most time.
But Wait
Young and Gardy have had talks but Gardy has favorites. By the way, Young isn’t one of them. After several years of sticking by his boys, Kubel and Cuddyer, it is starting to pay off. Very loyal to Punto and had been crazy loyal to Gomez. When somebody had to sit it wasn’t Span, Cuddyer, or Kubel. Young sat. He’d show signs of life early in season and go to the bench for 4 or 5 games at a time. Gardy finally gave up on Go Go, Young played every day and contributed. With Thome here needing at bats they won’t come from Cuddyer or Kubel they’ll come from Young. If that happens it’ll get in his head and he’ll start slow again. Playing every day he can hit 290 with 25 hrs. We’ll have to see how it plays out with injuries and how good Thome can look playing every 3rd day or so.
Free Kubel!
If Gardy has always stuck by his boys, why the Free Kubel campaign? I think 110% of the “Gardy’s favorites” and “Gardy’s doghouse” stuff is exaggerated.
Kubel was not one of his favorites, either was Cuddyer
Really, Gardy doesn’t like young guys in general. Only a few. Here is a list:
Mohr
Punto
Castro
Punto
Heintz
Tolbert
Punto
Redmond
Punto
L-Rod
Punto
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
One of the reasons I dismiss a lot of the doghouse/favorite arguments is because people seem to use “everyone knows” as the evidence. Or there’s this scenario: a player is slumping and a reporter asks Gardenhire about it. Gardenhire sticks up for the player and shows that he has the player’s back. Fans see that Gardy says something nice about a player who sucks, that must mean the player has incriminating photos. The whole Punto thing last year was rediculous. The alternatives (at the time, Casilla and Tolbert) were playing far worse than Punto.
Some of the players on your list make no sense. Redmond was the backup catcher – are you saying Mauer sat too much in favor of Redmond (I suppose you’re talking about Morales though)? Punto, L-Rod, and Tolbert were each others’ competition for playing time for the most part. Gardy is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t in that situation. Also, if you filter your list for duplicates, it’s not THAT long.
Also, he doesn't have that many favorites
I could give you a rather long list of guys whom he’s been really tough on. There just aren’t many guys who make a smooth transition form AAA under him.
When I say he plays favorites, sometimes it’s just that he doesn’t play the guys who are not. Morales vs. Redmond, for example. Even in September, when it was clear Redmond was done, Gardy played him over Morales, until the last week of the season or so.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He is still so YOUNG
He’ll be 24 untill September. 24 is when most guys reach the majors. If the expectations for him weren’t so high, his numbers would look great. The guy has hit .290 in the past 3 years…as a 21,22,23 year old. Guess what…Thats GOOD. If you can look past the lofty expectations, his hitting isn’t bad at all. He had the 4th best average on the team last year (300+PA). Right now, as a young kid, he is holding his own in the Majors. Remember, he is not 27.
I agree with you.
I think people’s anxieties over Delmon are more about the lack of improvement we’ve seen over his first few of years. He has nearly 2000 MLB plate appearances, and the improvements really haven’t shown in the numbers too much.
Check the link that diehardtwinsfan put down in the first comment. That shows his improvement in mechanics, which (if he’s doing those things consistently) should lead to better results. That’s the key—consistency with the things Delmon does right. Which, sadly, doesn’t include taking a walk, but if he can consistently swing the bat well…then it’s a step in the right direction.
That point needed to be made.
Thanks! I agree 100%
by Bert: Oh, we're live? on Feb 9, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
".290... Thats GOOD"
I’m going to disagree with this a bit. Yeah, in a vacuum, if you have a guy who hits .290, you would assume that he’s a useful player. But if that .290 is coupled with no walks and little power, even an average that good can be awfully empty.
If Delmon could couple that.290 average with even a 4-5% walk rate and some more extra-base hits, we’re talking about a very good player. As it is, Joe Crede’s .225 was almost as productive as Delmon’s .284 last year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
At this point, Delmon young might be the worst .290 hitter in the league
It’s not the lofty expectations, it’s the expectation of being a passable player.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 9, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
BA = BS
I don’t think batting average is irrelevant; obviously a high batting average is a good thing. But on-base percentage is better.
Delmon Young walks less than any player in the league. And his numbers are trending down.
Who cares if he hits .300 if he only gets on base at a .320 clip?
To have that low of an OBP, you have to have some power. His power is not enough to compensate for low OBP.
I think he can change too. But so far he hasn’t, and he hasn’t shown that he is the type of guy who is willing to learn from others.
So call me a pessimist.
The best news regarding Delmon Young we got all year was the hiring of Jim Thome, who could push Kubel to the outfield if Young doesn’t improve.
And frankly it may be the best thing for Delmon’s development, too. If his biggest problem is his attitude, and a refusal to listen to his coaches, then knowing that he HAS to in order to keep his job may be the best thing that ever happened to him.
Delmon has shown he's willing to learn.
The perfect example is in diehardtwinsfan’s link in comment #1—check the mechanics. He’s willing. We just need to start seeing some results.
And you’re right—a .320 OBP isn’t worth much without power, but this is what I’m hoping he can attain. It doesn’t require him to become a different type of hitter, it just requires him to be better at what he already does.
Right now, I just really think the Delmon attitude thing is overblown.
I hope you're right about Delmon being willing to learn
I’ve been hearing for two years that he’s been resistant to our coaches working on his mechanics.
Then again, the moment Delmon became a Twin he became a pretty extreme ground ball hitter. Was it due to our coaches trying to get Delmon to put the ball in play to the right side? Perhaps he’s been listening all along…
2007 (TAM): 21.1 LD%, 46.3 GB%, 32.6 FB%
2008 (MIN): 17.1 LD%, 55.2 GB%, 27.8 FB%
2009 (MIN): 16.2 LD%, 49.7 GB%, 34.1 FB%
I like the increase in FB% from 2008 to 2009. More HR and power will come from Delmon hitting more fly balls.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
The biggest thing he seemed to learn last year is to trust the coaches
He had this horrible mechanical problem of leaning toward the pitcher as the pitch was thrown, which meant he was leaning back as he swung—the opposite of what you want to do to generate power. Everybody saw it. It was diagrammed on several sites. Even Ron Coomer pointed it out in a pregame show. Still, he didn’t start listening to the coaches about it until midseason. Why? Because his dad told him to do it and everything his dad told him he had done up to that point. Well, no longer. Time to leave the nest into the waiting arms of Joe Vavra. Hopefully he doesn’t revert to daddy’s little prince after this offseason.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
His high BA shows that he has raw hitting talent
but all of the more significant statistics show that he isn’t getting results right now. But he clearly has potential and the batting average supports that. If he improves his approach at the plate he will be a very good hitter. But ragahagashraah he hasn’t yet and that is frustrating.
But like others have said, he is still very young. If he really lost 30 pounds its a great sign that he may finally be dedicated to becoming the player he can be. As others have said, he is still young. He’ll be in the best shape he’s been in as a Twin. This season is probably the best chance to breakout he will get in his entire career. I’m rooting for him to make the most of it.
Out of curiosity
What type of power is needed to make a .290-.300 hitter with .320-.330 OBP worthwhile? Especially when they aren’t expected to hit any higher than the 7 or 8 hole. 15-20 HRs with a smattering of doubles? Maybe even a little less?
heh
then we’d actually have a too many outfielders problem. Which is a good thing, of course.
I'd say a slugging percentage above .470 in that case
Delmon was at .425 last year, with 16 doubles, 2 triples and 12 HR in 395 at bats. He’d need an extra 17 total bases to bump his SLG up above .470. So keeping the same batting average, we’re talking about turning 9 of those singles into 5 doubles and 4 additional home runs, for 21 and 16 2B and HR, respectively.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
He also hit a lot of doubles the previous two seasons.
I don’t think he’d have much trouble turning those 16 doubles into 25 this season.
But again…I’m an unabashed optimist-slash-sometimes-unrealist.
I think you nailed it
I think with his defense and batting in the 7-8 hole, you’d want to see an OPS of around 800 before you started to think, “Dude’s useful.”
Honestly, .290 with 15 HRS and a comparable amount of doubles would be plenty useful out of the likely 8 spot. I think those are useful numbers for any hitter that low in the order. Yes, more walks would be nice with the top of the order coming up behind him, but if he can hit .300 I will take that as a bonus. If he could get on base around a third of the time, an OPB in the neighborhood of .330-.335 I’ll take him out there, regardless of his defense, which I expect to improve
It really depends on defense
Delmon is a bad defender in an easy position. If he played a decent third base, for example, he’d be a pretty good player all ready.
For instance, CHONE has JJ Hardy projected at .254/.307/.404. That looks much worse than Delmon’s line, but a great defensive shortstop is way more valuable thana bad defensive left fielder.
You use him batting in the 7 or 8 hole as some sort of justification for him being bad. The problem is, that the 8 hole is usually taken up by middle infielders who get their value in other ways than hitting. Delmon just doesn’t do anything at this point to make up for his bat.
I agree with others that I expect him to improve, I just don’t think he’ll improve enough to be a legitimate contributor.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 9, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I should note that CHONE has JJ Hardy as an above average player (2.5 WAR) and Delmon as a passable player (1.1 WAR).
I should also note that CHONE is as high on Delmon as any projection system I’ve seen, and is as low on Hardy as any I’ve seen. Marcel and Bill James expect them to be very similar to each other offensively.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 9, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Could...not...agree...more!
Glad to see some of these newbies posting some good stuff.
by montanatwinsfan on Feb 9, 2010 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
PECOTA
has Jim Rice and Tom Brunansky as comparable players. BR lists Carl Yaztrzemski and Roberto Clemente as most similar through age 23. If he adds patience or power he can be a monster, since he already hits for average. I’m not predicting greatness for Delmon, but I do think it’s possible.
I saw the Yaz.
It’s where I got the other three too, from BR. I left Yaz out because he did have one really good season already under his belt and through age-23 he wasn’t really as comparable as I thought he’d be.
Brunansky and Rice are interesting comps as well.
Yaz is a flaw in BR's similarity scores
Bill James purposely lowered the weight on walks when he developed the scores for a 1994 book on the HOF because he didn’t think the BBWAA or the VC paid much attention to plate discipline. No park or era adjustments for the same reason. As cool as these scores are, we’re sort of locked into 1994-era mainstream media biases when we use them. Yaz led the league in walks at age 23. I don’t think he’s a good comp.
A word of caution on Clemente. Clemente slumped early in his age 24 season, then got hurt and missed 50 games. So, even if you are hoping for the best-case scenario, even more patience may be required. :-)
Delmon is going to be Clemente
without any more setbacks, injuries, or plane crashes. You heard it here first.
by ckb on Feb 9, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Talent v. results
I think Delmon Young has as much ability to make contact as anyone else on the team – including Mauer. Where he falls down is pitch selection and the speed with which he makes adjustments. Delmon adjusts to poor mechanics or opponent’s strategy, but not quickly. Too bad the season isn’t 300 games long. This organization taught pitch selection to Torii Hunter (eventually) and I think they can teach it to Delmon.
He’ll be helped considerably by being platooned early. That should build confidence. He’ll also be helped by not having as difficult of a time defensively but he’ll still be a bad outfielder. I think we could still see Delmon turn into Joe Carter, Don Baylor or Jermaine Dye. I’d like to see him moved to RF as soon as possible with one of the stud prospects taking over LF or bumping Span over there.
I hope Delmon busts out this year and makes Cuddyer expendable. I think the Mets would take Cuddyer at 1B for example.
Cautious optimism
I think the Thome addition will help Young. If nothing else, it’s less pressure for him to deal with. Heck, maybe Thome’s appreciation for OBP will rub off (I can dream). As for last season, it’s easy to forget, but Delmon lost his mom in the first half of the season, after several months of illness. It may have nothing to do with anything, but I can’t imagine his greatest concern was his leg kick while he was dealing with an awful lot for a guy, who, really, is still just a kid. I for one am very anxious to see what he does with this year.
Re: Delmon's Mom
There’s no way this DIDN’T have an effect on him. I can’t imagine going back and trying to play after that.
But that’s all I want to say about it. Let’s hope he’s able to just play this year, without distraction, no matter what kind.
+1
I agree. That had to affect Delmon last year.
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Thank You
I was reading through all these comments waiting for this to be mentioned, or I was going to mention it. Also, the kid only got a year and a half in the minor leagues comming out of high school. Most top high school prospects gets 3-4 years before they even sniff the majors. I think getting him out of the dome, will really help him. If you check his stats he has always played better outdoors on grass that he ever has in a dome.
How much more time can we give him?
I really want Delmon to do well, not only just to get some return on that disastrous trade, but because it would be nice for him to reach his full potential and grow as a person.
But we have a literal glut of outfielders waiting in the wings, some of whom arguably have higher ceilings than Delmon and are better defensive OF’s. Is this his last year before we decide to go with someone younger like Hicks or Revere?
Probably two years until a decision
I doubt Hicks or Revere would be ready until 2012, unless Revere flies through AA and AAA this year. Perhaps Rene Tosoni will be ready in 2011, but he’s about the only guy I see at the door step.
Chances are, Delmon’s safe through 2011 unless we decide a $4M price tag next year is cost prohibitive. Also, when 2012 comes, we will also have a decision to make on Cuddyer, so that will be a consideration. How many of our minor league outfielders will be ready?
by Adam Peterson on Feb 9, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
I agree that Tosoni could be ready next year.
But I think Revere might be knocking on the door next summer, too. At any rate, with Cuddyer probably done after ‘11 they’ll be ready at the right time. And after ’11, Delmon will be going into his last arbitration year….so I agree there, too.
It will be interesting to see what happens if Tonosi and Revere are both even better than expected.
Hicks will have to have two really amazing years to be ready by ’12.
If in '11 we are ready to go without Delmon and Cuddy
I’m willing to bet Span is going to get a nice deal to stay for a while longer (as long as he continues to produce).
by John Veldhuis on Feb 9, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Ben Revere
ETA 2011. If he can handle AA as well as he did high A, he’s ready. The ability to make contact transfers very well to the majors. I see him reaching AAA late next year and being ready for a ROY campaign in 2011.
Contact transfers well to the Majors?
As opposed to patience and power? I’m not saying you’re wrong, I just have never heard that before. Is there a study you can point me to that shows that?
One thing that definitely transfers well is defense, which will be one of Revere’s best qualities.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 9, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Strikeout rate is a strong predictor
I’ll let you do the google search but players with above average strikeout rates in the minors tend to underperform their MLE. Players who make solid contact overperform their MLE.
I'm curious why
Delmon had such a huge drop off in defense when he switched from RF to LF. I mean the guy had a season with Tampa in RF with a positive UZR, so why such a huge drop off. And is it just me or do others have a hard time believing that Cuddyers outfield defense was even worse than Delmon (according to UZR)? Maybe they should try switching!
by Michael in N.Cali on Feb 9, 2010 1:40 PM EST reply actions
A few possible reasons
First, it’s hard to tell how good someone’s defense is from one season of UZR data. The more seasons, the better. So it’s possible that his one good defensive year was a fluke. The same might hold true for Cuddyer’s defense being worse than Delmon’s defense.
Second, I’m not familiar with Tropicana Field, but maybe there is a big enough difference from RF there to LF in the Metrodome to affect Delmon’s defense. Both are domes, so I don’t see an obvious difference, but you never know. Hopefully Delmon’s defense will be better at Target Field in any case.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 9, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
He should be at his defensive peak
There has been research that shows defense peaks earlier than hitting. The sad truth is this may be as good as Delmon gets in the field and it is only downhill from here.
If he is faster from losing weight
and had specific problems with the Metrodome lights then his results should improve even if his skill has already peaked.
I think
that losing those 30 pounds will make him lose his power, whatever he had hidden in there between the rolls, and he’ll get angry that he quit eating quadruple whoppers and he’ll throw his bat at the umpire….again.
I doubt this...
He’s always had plenty of power, power comes from the legs. Not the roll around his gut. If anything dropping 30 will improve his quickness, bat speed, and his ability to turn on the ball.

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