Window of Opportunity
by Nick Nelson on Mar 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST
in Speculation
33 comments
As we know, the loss of Joe Nathan creates an opening in the ninth inning that the Twins will likely look inward to fill. The candidates for this role have been discussed exhaustively already (you can check out my lengthy write-up on the topic here, if you so please), but little attention has been paid thus far to the fact that Nathan's absence also creates an additional opening in the bullpen, since each reliever will be bumped up one spot to pick up the slack. This presents an opportunity for a reliever to come north with the club who otherwise might not have.
We know that Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Clay Condrey will all be filling some sort of role in Ron Gardenhire's bullpen. I suspect the team will also carry a long reliever -- perhaps Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins. If the Twins elect to roll with six-man bullpen, that could be it. However, given that Gardenhire likes to have a lot of flexibility with his relievers, there's a good chance he'll want a seven-man pen (with a four-man bench), particularly now that the relief corps is without its strongest member with many of the remaining pieces surrounded by question marks. If Gardy decides he wants a seventh reliever, there are a number of guys with a chance to step in.
Let's take a quick look at some candidates:
2. Anthony Slama: One of my favorite prospects, Slama recovered from a poor start after being promoted to Rochester last year to finish with a 3.45 ERA and 19-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 2/3 innings there. In total, he has registered a sparking 1.86 ERA while notching 271 strikeouts in 183 2/3 minor-league innings, and he's already 26 years old. With Slama looking good this spring and continuing to whiff opposing hitters despite underwhelming stuff, the Twins are running out of excuses to keep him down.
3. Rob Delaney: Delaney and Slama both opened the 2009 season in New Britain, but Delaney was the first to receive a promotion to Triple-A, suggesting that the Twins felt he was closer to being ready for the show. I didn't come away terribly impressed after watching Delaney pitch last Friday in Fort Myers (and he subsequently took a beating in his next outing), but his 2.41 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 rate over four minor-league seasons are all stellar. At age 25 and with 47 innings logged at the highest level of the minors, Delaney is close.
4. Outside Acquisition: Down this page a little bit you'll find a blurb about the Twins' potential interest in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor. Names like Heath Bell and John Smoltz have also popped up in connection with the Twins. Given that the team already boasts solid bullpen depth, I'd be surprised to see Bill Smith go out and add another reliever, but it's certainly possible that he could do so, particularly with insurance covering as much as half of Nathan's lost salary this year.
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It'll be Neshek.
http://www.realityfish.com
by Robin G on Mar 10, 2010 3:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The unlikeliest
I was trying to think what would be the unlikeliest closer to emerge, that would cause the most discussion ans second-guessing…and thus, also in a weird Gardy way, a plausible option.
The answer was quickly obvious.
Glen Perkins, Twins closer for 2010.
by AM. on Mar 10, 2010 3:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Have to agree with Robin
Unless Neshek falls apart or admits to being in pain, I have to think the loss of Nathan ices his invite to come back with the major league roster.
Oddly, I’m a bit disappointed that we’re not talking more seriously about moving Liriano to the bullpen full-time, given his ongoing struggles as a starter. I’m guessing the main reason we’re not is that there’s no obvious replacement for Liriano in the rotation.
+1
I would be OK with letting Swarzak or Duensing have a shot at the #5 spot in the rotation. If not one of them, go ahead and find a mediocre starting pitcher. I would love to see The Cisco Kid get a chance to close out games.
Ever since Liriano came back from Tommy John surgery, I’ve thought he would be a good fit in the bullpen. Everyone keeps waiting for him to resume his 2006 form, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen. The fact is that in the bullpen, he can survive on fastball-slider alone. He has 2 plus pitches, and not a lot else. This can cause problems when you’re going through the batting order for the second and third time, but that’s not an issue for a 1-inning reliever. Aside from that, pitchers who move to the bullpen tend to gain a few MPH on their fastballs because they aren’t throwing as many pitches.
It would be a risky move for sure, but Liriano has the potential to be a strong closer. I just can’t say that about any other pitcher currently on the Twins staff.
-Flip
Why settle?
Why settle for a “mediocre starting pitcher” (say hello to Mr. Swarzak) when Liriano has the ceiling of an ace? Closing is infinitely less important, and Liriano has infinitely more talent than any of the other starting options.
Talent ≠Success
Sure, Liriano has a lot of talent. He’s got nasty stuff. He had it last year as well (5-13, 5.80 ERA). The real question here is whether or not you believe he can still dominate as a starter. If not, then why press him into that role? Would you rather have a mediocre starter (as Liriano was last season) or a potentially dominating reliever? If you believe that a pitcher is always more valuable as a starter, then wouldn’t be a good idea to try out Neshek in the rotation?
Let’s say it’s June 1st and Liriano is 2-6 with an ERA over 5.50… Would it still be worth keeping him in the rotation because “he might possibly become an ace”? Some players are just better suited for the bullpen. There has to be a point where you decide a change in roles is in order. Remember that the Twins moved a talented LaTroy Hawkins around until he found a good fit in the 8th inning and became a dominant set-up man.
-Flip
Liriano's Brain
The question is whether Liriano is mentally equipped to close games. He clearly demonstrated last year that he struggles under pressure situations, and even openly admitted to becoming flustered when runners got on base and he had to pitch from the stretch. In light of this, do you really think pitching the ninth inning in tight games it the proper role for him?
I don't know...
I’m just saying that it’s worth a shot. The fact is that I’m not confident that any Twins pitcher can fill Nathan’s role. I’m more optimistic about Liriano’s chances because, unlike someone like Glen Perkins or Matt Guerrier, he has the tools to be a domant strikeout guy.
Yes, those tools do apply in the rotation as well. -But if and when the Twins delcare him a lost cause as a reliable starting pitcher, he should be considered for a bullpen job. Plus, I just love the idea of having 2 flame-throwing lefties in the pen.
-Flip
I don't think it was his brain, it was his arm
When a guy is used to throwing 93 and he can’t break 90, it messes with his head. When he threw 96, he was supremely confident. He just had dead arm last year, predictably casued by the reckless increase in his innings in 2008. You don’t go from nothing to 200 innings in one year. If you do, you are GUARANTEED to have dead arm the next.
He struggled with dead arm all year, overthrew, lost his control and lost his confidence as a result. Take away the dead arm and you have at least as good a pitcher as he was in 2008.
I’m not advocating moving him to closer. But I think he would do very well in that role. He’d just be much more valuable as a starter.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
Let Liriano alone. If he gives us quality innings, why in hell would we jack him around and make his personal success the barometer for the whole team?
Nothing personal, but that would just be assanine, and I 100% guarantee that the Twins FO is way too smart to load more on his shoulders.
by Old Twins Cap on Mar 10, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
I agree....
I agree with your second paragraph. Hawkins is a great example, not to mention the majority of star closers/shut-down set-up men started their careers as starting pitchers.
However, Liriano is finally a full season and a half removed from his surgery, and while his winter ball numbers were far from pitching in the major leagues, they can’t be ignored. He has apparently looked better than okay so far this spring, and that has to count for something, too. Where I disagree is when you say they shouldn’t “press him into that role”. He was groomed as a starter and excelled as a starter. That IS is role. All of a sudden closing games is what constitutes as “pressing” someone into a role.
Obviously, Neshek was never miscast as a starter, and players who have been relievers their entire professional careers never become starting pitchers. All I’m saying is they owe it to themselves, Liriano, and anyone with any vested interest in the Twins to give him a fresh, healthy start in the rotation. If that doesn’t work, he could be as dominating a reliever as we have ever seen. Just don’t give up on him yet.
Eventually
Neshek has the best combination of stuff/intangibles to be a closer of anyone on the roster, but he is coming off or surgery and hasn’t pitched in nearly 2 years. Rauch should close until Neshek shows he can be consistent again at the major league level. Then give the job to Neshek.
The reason that Liriano is not being seriously considered for the bullpen has much more to do with the fact that his value as a starter is astronomically higher than as a closer, as the comments above me point out, then it does about him struggling last season as a starter. Not only that, but we do have multiple starters that would replace him in the rotation (Duensing and Perkins, also Manship and Swarzak, etc.) if he were to move to the bullpen.
There just isn’t any reason to move him to the bullpen until they’ve exhausted all possibilities of him starting this season. He could provide too much of a boost to the team as a starter. There is no question he has the stuff/pitch quality to close, but that would not be maximizing his potential.
My biggest concern with Liriano closing
Would be control of the strike zone. Last year, Liriano showed a tendency to lose the strike zone and would wind up walking multiple batters in an inning. The LAST thing you want out of your closer is for them to start handing out free passes to first base with the game on the line.
+1
though if I recall, Liriano was usually good for 1-2 innings last year before losing command / poise.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 10, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
This from MLBTR/SI's John Heyman
“The scenario of the Twins signing a free agent starter like Jarrod Washburn and moving Francisco Liriano into the closer role is “said to be floating around Ft. Myers,” possibly depending on whether Joe Nathan’s contract is insured. I’d be surprised by that approach, though; I think Liriano is primed for a big year as a starter. "—Tim Dierkes (MLBTR)
Agreed.
I'm getting tired of Washburn rumors
man this would be a dumb idea. I’d much rather put Liriano out there at the #5 spot to start the season. Give him a chance to succeed. If he fails, then you put him in the bullpen. Rauch would be an average closer. Probably Guerrier as well. We don’t need to put Liriano in the closer spot. Though I think he’d be a pretty effective reliever, I’d rather see if he can continue his winter performance and dominate in the rotation.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 10, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
+1
My thoughts exactly. Give the ball to Rauch, start Liriano. If he struggles, he should head to the bullpen and hopefully dominate in short stretches. Maybe eventually close, once he gets his head on straight. If he doesn’t, use Neshek as closer once he’s capable.
I was tired of them last year
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It is insured
Insurance will pay out half of Joe Nathan’s contract if he is gone for the season. Since we are talking big bucks, the Twins can afford the likes of Pedro Martinez. Liriano can be moved to the bullpen and the Twins should be set.
Thank you for posting this. I knew there would be some insurance payout.
How do you know its half, though? Is this posted somewhere?
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 10, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
LEN III posted it in his blog, I think
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The money
There are certainly no shortage of possibilities. The most interesting thing is that whoever of the 20+ viable options (Rauch, Crain, Neshek, Guerrier, Mijares, Liriano, Slama, Delaney, Perkins, Frasor, Wood, Bell, Smoltz, Pedro, Springer, Beimel, Gagne…alright, I’ve only got 17), whoever gets it will score a big payday.
Has anyone reviewed the scenario in which Nathan landed the closing job to begin with?)
by AM. on Mar 10, 2010 6:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Twins lost Guardado to the Mariners after the 2003 season.
The team had traded Pierzynski to the Giants a month earlier for Nathan, Liriano, and Bonser. Nathan won the closing job in spring training, competing with Jesse Crain and JC Romero.
No panic...
There is no team in MLB that handles adversity better than the Twins. Losing Nathan hurts, but not nearly as bad as most might think.
Rather than screwing around with everyone’s role, I would seriously consider Slama as the Closer. It keeps everyone else in place, and puts the new closer in the best position to succeed.
This approach worked with Nathan, Jenks, Soria, etc.. Forget about experience. Slama’s secondary numbers look good enough…give him the support to do the job and see what happens.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
I would consider...
Trading Glen Perkins for a minor leaguer with a bit of up side or some magic beans. Glen, when healthy, is not a good reliever. He was average at best and very up and down.
Then, I would give Slama a shot in the bullpen. It is time. Try him out in a 7th or 8th inning role and see how he fares. If Rauch fails and Slama is succeeding, make the switch.
I’m not high on Delaney. I believe a better plan would be to give Swarzak a shot in the bullpen when someone goes down with an injury (likely Crain). Anthony is able to spot his low 90’s fastball decently with some movement. Does not have a quality secondary pitch… at least not yet. I see him as Blackburn with worse secondary offerings. Stick him in the 6th or 7th inning roll. I believe that’s where he will succeed unless his offspeed pitches improve.
Slama has always been a closer
With a good defence I think he’ll do fine, not great but fine. It just depends on his improvement as the season moves to fall. If all fails you look for a trade by June.
by b1 on Mar 11, 2010 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Keep what we have....
And rotate the guys as needed.
Hopefully the Twins will be a comfortable run scoring machine and the need for a true closer to consitently close out, say, 40 games for the season will be the max.
The worst that can happen is to have a closer but no games to close.
The Twins have at least three (Rauch, Crain and Guerrier).
In the wider pitcher, both Mijares and the soon-to-return Neshek can also close.
You end up having seven relievers. Use two each night and one guy to do the long stint if the game is a blow-out either way.
But, the Twins have to score those runs and the starters have to keep their own run-limiting to 4.00 each, which is approx. 3 runs per start of 5-6 innings, although let’s see more 6-7 inning stints!
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