Wearing the Blindfold: Who Do You Like?
by Jesse on Mar 11, 2010 7:54 AM EST
in Quick Hits
39 comments
Below is a small chart of numbers, looking at just a few rate stats over the last three seasons (or as long as the player's been in the league). There's Joe Nathan, the guy who probably has to be replaced, and then a number of other candidates. Some of them have never closed before, some of them have held the role temporarily, and some of them have been dedicated closers for at least one season as some point in their career. Some are current Twins, others aren't.
| Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| Joe Nathan | 10.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.952 |
| Player A | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.056 |
| Player B | 9.4 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 1.086 |
| Player C | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.193 |
| Player D | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.197 |
| Player E | 8.7 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 1.216 |
| Player F | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 1.229 |
| Player G | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.248 |
| Player H | 7.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.408 |
After the jump, who's who...but first, cast your vote!
Player A - Jose Mijares
Player B - Heath Bell
Player C - Matt Guerrier
Player D - Jon Rauch
Player E - Jason Frasor
Player F - Kerry Wood
Player G - John Smoltz
Player H - Jesse Crain
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Well Played
I voted Player B. Even though I don’t actually think the Twins need to trade for Heath Bell—yet.
I decided between Player B and Player F. Unfortunately, neither of them seem to be an option (unless maybe Bell is there at the trade deadline).
Frasor’s numbers aren’t too bad either.
by Twins Territory on Mar 11, 2010 8:47 AM EST reply actions
+1
Yeah, B and F, E not bad
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Mar 11, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Hey,
No fair tricking us with PETCO-inflated stats.
Smoltz looks better than I thought.
Inflated stats
I agree that Bell is a little unfair (especially his home run rate)… but I think all the setup guys have a bit similar problem. I don’t have any actual data to back this up, but I would guess that setup guys probably get a platoon advantage more often than closers – closers are sent out for entire innings and not removed (well, unless they have a complete meltdown), so opponents can better exploit platoon advantage by using pinch hitters without fear of being countered with a reliever. I’d assume this is also part of the “relievers will always have better ERAs than starters” issue as well, since starters not only pitch to everyone but often have starting lineups tailored against them.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I realize it may be a longshot but
why didn’t you include one of our own Twins with the line: 10.59/2.76/1.12 and 0.96 ?
richman
It's just not realistic.
He’s not even going to be on the opening day roster, so that makes it real hard for him to be our closer.
At some point this season, if he’s feel well and pitching well, I can see it. But he’s not an option right now.
Okay
I agree completely. I was looking at “who I like” and not who I like right now. I really think that he has some of the nastiest stuff on the roster and after the All Star break he may be the best option if he comes back nicely.
richman
Great
Nathan is/was/has been GREAT and I think sometimes more appreciated nationally than locally. Such is the life of a closer… when he closes it properly he’s just doing his job and when he doesn’t, he’s terrible and something must be wrong with him.
"Jimmy Key? What's he like, 45? I could hit him."
Through 100 votes, nobody wants Jason Frasor.
Who is also the most realistic (this doesn’t mean he’s probable) option on the list.
didn't you see souhan's article...
we are going to trade Mauer and get the closer of the future!!!
What’s that line from a few good men,
“should we or should we not follow the advice of the galactically stupid!”
How do his editors let him write that. 2 weeks into spring training and no deal yet, so the Twins better start the trade discussions.
1)I am sure the twins have already had internal discussions about this contract situation in the offseason. I am sure/hope they have lots of contingency plans, and trigger dates, for every situation that as it concerns to Mauer. I would be shocked if any of those plans involve serious trade discussions 2 weeks into spring training.
2) If we do decide to trade Joe Mauer and the Twins target a pitcher whose only purpose is to pitch maybe 70 innings a season, than I am sorry to say, but Bill Smith and CO. should be run out of town as fast as possible.
3) This is a prime example of how people get caught up with the save stat. Joe nathan is our closer, but more importantly he is our best relief pitcher regardless of what inning he comes in. Right now the Twins have lost their best relief pitcher, that’s it. It hurts the team certainly, but this is not the end of the world. last season the Twins were missing their best player (mauer) for a month, their second best player (Morneau) for a month, their second best pitcher (Slowey)for most of the season, and likely there second best reliever (Neshek) for the entire season, adn they still won the Division. THe season is not over, calm down Top Jimmy!
I don't know; I think Souhan's column is generally reasonable
He notes that it’s still likely they sign him.
However, and whether his sources are accurate or not is a question, but granting that he has a reason to believe them, if the Twins are offering 20+ a year, and still can’t get a deal done, the question has to be asked whether a deal is going to get done.
Furthermore, on a similar depressing note, I for one am wondering whether there is a real gulf in negotiations. The continued failure to get it done is beginning to strike me as problematic.
Finally, it’s worth asking: what will/should the Twins do if they can’t get a deal done? How aggressively do you shop Mauer if you come to the conclusion that you can’t sign him long-term? I didn’t read it as: “trade Mauer for a closer.” It was more like, you might be able to solve problems, one of them being closer, if you trade Mauer.
Look, nobody wants to face this. But the closer we get to the season, and more accurately, the closer we get to the end of the season, the more we have to consider the possibility that Mauer might go.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 11, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
It's all true.
And I think everyone recognizes that this is the reality of the situation:
But the closer we get to the season, and more accurately, the closer we get to the end of the season, the more we have to consider the possibility that Mauer might go.
I agree, but all that’s going to happen if you start down this route is a bunch of speculation with a mass populace that’s going to bitch and moan. THAT is what I don’t want to face. The hysteria. Because that’s exactly what it will be.
Finally, and I actually believe this—there is zero reason to freak out right now, and start this kind of conversation. If the season is over and free agency is looming and we STILL can’t work something out…then I’ll probably get a little jittery. But right now, this whole “Mauer’s not signed yet” thing isn’t actually bothering me.
Really? You have some kind of constitution, my friend
Have you learned the stiff upper lip from the Brits? How’s that occupation of India going?
It sure as hell is bothering me. If they intend to get this done, why isn’t it done? Negotiations either have momentum toward a conclusion or they do not. Given how long they have been talking, I’m beginning to worry that the answer is “not.”
As for what you want to face, this is just an early salvo in the hysteria that is coming, whether you want to face it or not. It isn’t Souhan’s fault.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 11, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
No, it's not Souhan's fault.
But that doesn’t mean he’s worth reading.
Twinkie Town is a pretty sane place for Twins fans. But I think a lot of people will lose their minds at some point, if it continues to go on that long. (Which I think it won’t, because I’m patient anyway…and an institutionalized optimist.)
You’re asking questions that can’t be answered, and the questions you’re asking are leading you right to that hysterical outcome. I’m generally pretty calm about everything…so noticing that the deal isn’t done doesn’t bother me, because no team in their right mind wouldn’t be doing everything they can to sign Joe Mauer. Worrying gets you nowhere.
Big contracts for big players take a long time. They just do. It’s happened before Mauer quite a few times, and it will happen after him quite a few times. Nothing like this has ever happened to Twins fans, I’m even sure Kirby Puckett’s free agency wasn’t this intense, so I can understand some apprehension. And there’s no denying it’s later in the game than we’d like it to be for getting a deal done. But no, I’m not concerned. When both sides are happy, the deal will happen.
"Worrying gets you nowhere"
Ha! Just, Ha! Interpret it how you want. (You’re right, of course, but worry is an essential part of my being).
I will add this: notice how Souhan is promoting management in this piece. Mentioning injuries, saying, incorrectly, that Morneau was considered more valuable prior to 2009. I wonder if some of this wasn’t “fed” to him by the FO…
by Eric in Madison on Mar 11, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
If you want an example...
Of the gut-instinct, knee-jerk reaction from the casual Twins fans, check out the comments on the Target Field facebook page (the one with 40k fans) when they posted the Souhan article. Fire and brimstone. People who will “never watch a game again” if they trade him. People who demand the Twins “write a blank check” to Mauer…
I think it’s all rhetoric, obviously, but it’s a good sample of the kind of gnashing of teeth you’re gonna see in a few weeks if we don’t get this done…
yeah but...
Shapiro took the Orioles to mid season before signing Ripken. I think if his agent were Scott Boras we should worry right now, but Joe has stated that he would like to stay here, and Bill Smith has stated that if Joe wants to stay a deal would get done. I have to think, and I might be wrong, but if he truly wanted to leave the Twins woudl have indications and trade discussions woudl have come up earlier.
That maybe naive, but think back to the Santana situation, as soon as the Twins knew Johan wanted to move on they started trade discussions.
Maybe they have to trade Joe, but right now is not the time to start thinking about it. Mauer has leverage, and if shapiro didn’t use it he woudl be a lousy agent.
+1
It’s just more drivel from the Strib’s resident negative nancy. He hasn’t really written anything since the Olympics so I suppose he had to come up with something.
by drumbum2011 on Mar 11, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
The thing that bothers me most about this article
Is now every sports website lists that Joe Mauer will be traded in their rumors section because they interpret the article to mean that Joe Mauer will definitely be traded. It gets really annoying after the 5th or 6th time.
"If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error." - John Kenneth Galbraith.
by 92 MPH Knuckleball on Mar 11, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Me too
However, I glanced at the HR/9 and thought I was looking at WHIP. I realize now it would be quite odd for a guy to have exactly a .9 WHIP though.
I’d take a bit lower K rate for a sub 1 WHIP. I was going to go B until I made that mistake. I hope the Twins are at least exploring a trade for Heath Bell. I’m not extremely worried about losing Nathan but if Bell can be had for Perkins + prospects it might be worth it.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Fun game
I like how the numbers are right in line with what the public perception of each pitcher is. At least it makes it less likely that we sign a big name with mediocre ability.
Also, I voted B but was tempted by F. Ah strikeouts….
BTW
How is Loek Van Mil’s recovery going? I would like to see him on the big league roster. But no, not as the closer.
"If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error." - John Kenneth Galbraith.
by 92 MPH Knuckleball on Mar 11, 2010 12:50 PM EST reply actions
I still like Smoltz as an external option...
because remember, this is an unfair comparison for him since he’s been pitching as a starter over that time period. His numbers would figure to be significantly better in relief.
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