Why Nathan's Loss Won't Kill the Twins

Sky Kalkman (of Beyond the Boxscore fame) writes, over at ESPN Insider, how Nathan's loss won't greatly affect the team's win totals. By his calculations (partially based on some ballpark estimations I gave him) he concludes that Nathan's loss skims just 2.5 wins off of Minnesota's totals.

I did disagree with Sky on some of his ERA projections, but only Jose Mijares' 4.00 ERA struck me as pretty far off. However, Sky provides his spreadsheet at the bottom of the article, where you can change the numbers to see how they would change the Twins' win totals. Moving Mijares' ERA to 3.00, while not changing the leverage index, doesn't really alter the outcome.

These are just ballpark figures, but the prove exactly why Nathan's loss doesn't knock the Twins off the map. In fact, if Mijares plays better than his 4.00 ERA (and he should) and Pat Neshek (who I projected at about 30-35 innings so was left off the chart) provides good relief, the Twins might shave that down to about 1.5 wins.

It's a great article. If you have Insider, I highly recommend it.

4 months ago Jesse 9 comments 0 recs |

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I must be feeling even more pessimistic than usual today

but…2.5 wins is a lot. Easily could be the difference between the post-season and not. I still feel pretty good about this team, but losing 2.5 wins isn’t something to sneeze at.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 11, 2010 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

Especially when you’re in the part of the WAR chart the Twins are. I can’t find a specific copy of the graph, but 2.5 wins where the Twins sit is probably a 20-25% difference to their playoff odds chances.

IMO many mass media personalities are overreacting to this somewhat, but many blogosphere Twins fans have come back to far the other direction trying to calm everyone’s nerves. This is not a trivial loss.

The good news is I still don’t think the rest of the division is any good (though the White Sox could be nasty if the do much hitting) so maybe the team is ok.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 11, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Losing your best Offensive Lineman

I was trying to describe the loss to a friend of mine who is a huge football fan but watches baseball leisurely and thus puts way too much emphasis on the closer role.

I told him it would be like a team with a top 5 offensive line losing their best lineman. It hurts but it’s not the end of the world.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Mar 11, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions

Or maybe a top tier place kicker

by Span Man on Mar 11, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Not much difference in place kickers

Closers have a wider variation in quality than kickers and see more action. Linemen are more important. Maybe closer = defensive back?

I wonder if Souhan would trade Favre for Darren Sharper.

by DJL44 on Mar 11, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

You need 3 good relievers

Any team that wants to have a good high leverage bullpen needs 3 good relievers. The Twins just lost one. If Neshek is back to his old form, that negates the Nathan loss. I think the pitching staff just became pretty mediocre with this injury. There is enough depth and upside on the roster that the Twins might be able to exceed those expectations.

by DJL44 on Mar 11, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions

My take

I posted my point of view at my new site Bullpen Banter.

This is the link to the Nathan piece http://tr.im/Rtys

Come check out Bullpen Banter
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Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Mar 11, 2010 2:29 PM EST reply actions

I don't know

I feel like I’m going through the seven stages of grief with this thing. I’m currently stuck someplace between Depression and Acceptance:

Denial – “Joe will be fine. He probably just hit a pitch count. It’s just precautionary.”

Anger – “Why does everything happen to the Twins!! This is the worst news EVER!”

Bargaining – “I promise that I’ll never make fun of Joe Nathan’s weird California style necklaces and I won’t even swear at him when he blows a lead against the Yankees in the playoffs if he’ll just be OK!”

Depression – "I’m so sad, why even bother trying to get another closer. They say he will cost us “only” 3 wins. THREE WINS! This is the woooorst thing evvvvver! We’ll never win the division now!"

Acceptance – “It’s going to be okay. We have some viable in house candidates and a little extra payroll money now if we need to go out and get someone in a few months. We have a really good offense and I believe in our starting pitchers. Plus the Central is going to suck hard this year.”

by dctwin on Mar 11, 2010 2:51 PM EST reply actions