So Souhan wants to trade Mauer?
by timprov on Mar 11, 2010 7:16 PM EST
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PrintSo Star Tribune fifth columnist Jim Souhan thinks it's time to think about trading the MVP.
But a combination of modern baseball logic and Twins history suggests that if the Twins' decision-makers can't sign Mauer, they will be obligated to trade him.
The Twins and Shapiro have kept the details of their negotiations remarkably quiet, but my sense, after talking with a variety of people, is that the team has offered more than $20 million a year. If Shapiro is intent on pushing Mauer to $25 million or more a year, Mauer might find himself on the Johan Santana Shuttle out of town.
Twins history ought to teach us well on this one; after all, we had this come up just a couple years ago, during the winter of 2007-8. Our two-time Cy Young ace was on his way out of town one way or another, and everyone quickly became convinced that the Twins were obligated to trade him to get some value rather than just letting him walk as a free agent.
So what happened? Fledgling general manager Bill Smith dealt Santana to the Mets for a weak package of prospects, and he promptly led the National League in ERA and batters faced. Without him the Twins played their way to a tie in the division and a heartbreaking loss in Game 163, version 1.0. It's pretty clear that that trade cost the Twins a playoff appearance, and a reasonable shot at a World Series with one of the best pitchers in the game at the top of the rotation. It also cost two picks in the 2009 draft, one of which would certainly have been #31. If the Mets had signed Johan as a free agent the other would have been #24.
Given the chance, would you have traded a playoff appearance and #24 and #31 draft picks for Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra? Unless you're Doug Risebrough, probably not.
And that's the situation we're in again with the latest superstar, Joe Mauer. The 2010 Twins look destined for the playoffs again, but it's hard to see them making it without #7. Mauer's value is probably higher than Santana's was, but teams would still be purchasing only one year of play and the right to pay him incredible amounts of money. Plus teams are valuing prospects higher than ever. Dreams of a huge load of future superstars exist only in Souhan's head. The Twins might get a better package than the Santana deal, but they're not going to get a future Mauer, or anything close.
Hopefully if this issue ever really comes up, Smith will learn from his mistake, take the probable playoff year and the picks, and not let the idea of being "obligated" to trade Mauer go any farther than Souhan's ratty Selectric.
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Unthinkable
that being said, I can only think of one team I would even fathom the idea of trading Mauer to. That would be Texas, for either Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and a ton of prospects. That is the only scenario I could even imagine without wanting to kill myself
"God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked."-Braveheart
Take that deal
then Mauer resigns with us next year!
Highway robbery
From the only TRUE North division
by thewild_viking_twins on Mar 11, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Ummm read that article again
1) Souhan still made it clear that it was likely he stays
2) If Mauer isn’t going to sign, Souhan is right. We have the advantage though of being able to leverage all teams against each other, with Santana, that was not the case. It was Boston or NY.
by diehardtwinsfan on Mar 11, 2010 8:07 PM EST reply actions
well he is just thinking about the worst case scenerio
But I’ve always thought of Souhan and a few others like him
as secretive workers for George Steinbrenner and his regime from back in the late 80’s early 90’s as part of an initiative plan to go to the Cities of the most competive AL small Market Teams (such as the Twins being 1 of them for sure)
and simply try to wreak havoc and create a mess , and try to get the Twins to do stupid things.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 11, 2010 8:27 PM EST reply actions
Yes secretly Souhan is a New Yorker at heart
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 11, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
I Rank Souhan
Right after Hartman and Reusse as far as terrible Star Trib Writers go. I cant stand reading anything those three guys “write”
"God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked."-Braveheart
I rank Souhan dead last in this market
Right behind Sansevere. They both are often wrong. But Souhan tries too hard to be funny. The result is often just sad. Sid and Shooter are in their own class, not really journalists, never were good writers. They don’t really count.
Reusse used to be the class of the sports writers in this town. Now he tries to be controversial for its own sake rather than just trying to be right. It might sell more papers, but it makes him a poor writer.
Tom Powers is the best, imo. He’s dead on most of the time and he manages to make his writing entertaining without seeming forced. Among baseball writers, Joe C. is tops in my book. Phil Miller used to be tops, but he got axed by the PiPress.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I predict a Phil Miller comback to Twin Cities Baseball
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Who is the heavy one?
That’s the guy who seems pretty unrelentingly negative to me. When he does those video clips – ugh.
Reusse is unrelentingly negative these days. He thinks he needs to counter all the homers
Actually, all three of Reusse, Sid and Souhan are just plain old jerks. Sid’s the worst. To his own co-host. Nobody wants to do that job because he just treats the guy like dirt.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
OK its not gonna happen
But its interesting to think of what they could demand for him.
Would they Yankees give Jesus Montero, Hughes or Chamberlain, and some lower prospects?
From the Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland?
Cubs Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, Jay Jackson and Carlos Marmol?
I don’t have any idea of his worth, but what does the community think?
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
let me rephrase that last sentence
I understand his worth, but what could/would the Twins demand?
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
there's no way we'd get any of those packages
certainly not the first two.
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Playing the Yankees against the Red Sox
I could see them both happen, Joe Mauer would be the most valuable asset to be traded. ever.
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
not really
he only has one year left on his deal. GMs would be dumb to give up a lot for him.
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at the trade deadline
if a team could really use him, then a nice player or two, but no Castro, Pedroia or Montero or similar is my guess
How are these trades...
not possible? You trade Mauer to the Yankees or Red Sox, they are getting the right to extend his contract without a bidding war. He turned down 22 in hopes of 25, if he goes to Boston, and they offer 24 is he going to turn it down in hopes of a bidding war in the offseason? The bidding war would come down to a small handful of teams. Dodgers? Doubtful with the whole McCourt situation. Angels? Possibly, Yankees? Yes, Red Sox? Yes. Any other team is likely dreaming, except maybe the Cubs, but they have Soto, who seems to be alright there. That’s three teams bidding. He wouldn’t incite much more, plus he’s guaranteed the money even if he’s hurt this year. He would sign the 24 in a heartbeat. Then they have him locked up, save a couple million, and have an all star catcher. Do I think we should trade him? No, but if push comes to shove, we need to do something, letting him go for a few picks, isn’t the option.
by SouthSotaPop on Mar 14, 2010 4:41 AM EST up reply actions
on what the Twins might get
someone told me, the twins would get alot for Mauer…
my response was Santana alot or actually alot this time…
I still have hope that the Twins will find away but why wouldn’t they also be considering what could be had for him in a trade.
a tight AL East race btwn NY and Bos could help the Twins at the trade deadline…
Santana was a special case
He had a no trade, and, thus, all the leverage. If he would have approved a trade to Seattle, e.g., we would have received what they paid for Bedard, and then some.
Joe does not have a no-trade clause. But the market is limited to the teams that can afford a $25 million a year contract for eight years, minimum.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
good point, the no trade clause was huge
Bedard did bring a much better haul, and he wasn’t nearly the pitcher Santana was.
Not Bad
Carlos Gomez did do good in his two years as a Twin and that does have to account for something. I honestly think Jim Souhan is right in a possible trade for Joe Mauer. This is a guy that could go to the Red Sox for a King’s Ransom. We have Bill Smith to thank because he traded Johan Santana to the Mets. As a result, the Mets were in the playoff race up until the last game of the regular season while the Yankees never really contended in the AL East.
As a result, Brian Cashman (GM of the Yankees) was told to go on a spending spree where he brought the 2009 World Series. With the Red Sox as the Yankees main rivals, I honestly think Boston could send us a few good players. The Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox love to one up each other and Joe Mauer would make a good trophy for Red Sox fans, especally if the offense starts out poor. The Mets could still be in the picture where they decide to trade Johan back to the Twins in a straight-up trade for Joe Mauer. Other than that, the only thing left for the Red Sox to do is build a new ballpark and position it to open in 2013 while saving the Green Monster as a memorial to their history. This is something the Yankees are forfiting by committing to demolish the entire stadium though fans want to save Gate 2 as an memorial.
As for the Twins, if we lose Joe Mauer, it will not be the end of the world because we will replace his offense with someone else.
We will replace Mauer's offense with someone else?
I recommend you take a moment to rethink that statement.
We are NOT the NYY/BOS farm team.
We need to stop acting like we are by trading off our stars. The line in the sand begins with Mauer. New stadium, new attitude!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"All morons hate it when you call them a moron." -Holden Caufield
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Mar 12, 2010 7:53 AM EST reply actions
Mauer is not Santana
This point has been made before but I’ll make it again. Santana may have been the best pitcher in the league when traded but the separation was not the same as it is with Mauer and other catchers. Mauer is a rarity and so far above any other player in the league. The Yankees knew if they missed out on Santana they could get CC the next year or trade for a Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, etc. There were other similar options, some might even say better options than Santana. With Mauer, there is really no comparison. Offensively Victor Martinez might be the closest but he’s not even a full time catcher.
So therefore, I could see a much better package for Mauer if it comes to that, plus there are other big money teams that might be in on it because there isn’t a no trade clause.
That said, I don’t believe the Twins will trade Mauer not just for his ability on the field but for the revenue streams generated by his hometown hero role. It’s another way that Santana just doesn’t compare to Mauer. Santana was very popular but Mauer is in a whole different level of popularity in the twin cities.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Agreed
One thing that i think is left out of these comparison’s between the Mauer situation and the Santana situation is, if you were a fly on the wall in the Twins Front Offices during the winter of 08 when they determined that they were not going to be able to sign Santana all of the focus, i’m certain, was on how to build a winning team for the summer of ‘10. I don’t think they thought they were going to be able to compete in 08 and 09 without Johan, so they punted and tried to get some players that would help in 10.
Right now the Twins have a team that is built to compete for the next four to five years. no matter who you get in a trade from the SOX, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc they are not going to be better than Mauer right now. Trading him would essentially render all the offseason moves useless. There woudl have been no need to trade Gomez, no need to waste money on Thome, Hudson, Condrey. THey could have dumped Cuddy’s salary on someone, amke other moves designed to compete in a coupel years from now.
For all the hyper ventilating that SOuhan has done over the loose of Nathan I am surprised that this is the route he is suggesting. Loose Joe nathan, blow to the team, btu they can still compete. trade Joe mauer and you may as well rebuild because you are not a contending team anymore.
If the Twins were a rebuilding team, it might make sense
But the Twins are a win-now and win-for-the-next 3-4 years team. It makes no sense for them to trade away a chance to win now for a chance to win 5-6 years down the road with a bucket of prospects.
In other words, the season or half-season of Mauer that the Twins would be trading away under Souhan’s proposal is just as valuable to the Twins as to any other contending team that might want to trade for him (plus bonus value as the home-town boy, etc.). So there’s no point.
The Twins now have respectable revenue (maybe top third) and should pay for the likes of Mauer. They don’t need to dump any and every star that might get to free agency, like the poorest teams in the league.
Only an idiot would suggest trading Mauer
If they trade Mauer they lose half their season ticket holders. I think it would be far more financially damaging to the Twins to let Mauer go than it would be to sign him to an 8 year $200M contract and have him miss a year due to injury.
Not only idiots
I’ve contemplated at what cost do the Twins go to in order to sign Mauer. What percentage of team salary is he going to command? I remember a post on here last year stating that historically, a team that pays one player around 20% of their team payroll doesn’t fair very well. I think the Cardinals and Pujols were the only exception to the rule. And I love Mauer, I really do, but if I were building a team, I’d take Pujols over Mauer. (Please don’t kill me TwinkieTown, I love it here!)
I think those points cut the other way, actually
The fact that the Cards were the successful exception to the rule actually argues in favor of the Twins doing the same. Pujols and Mauer are generally considered the two best position players in the game right now, making the situations pretty analogous. I’d be willing to guess the majority of the other teams paying one player a high percentage of overall payroll were either (i) blowing that high percentage on one starting pitcher, or (ii) for various reasons in payroll contracting (rebuilding, fire sales, bad trades) or small payroll (small market but need to keep the one good player on the team despite overall $60MM payroll) mode but stuck with one big contract for a corner outfielder or similar. Those teams will fare poorly not because of the simple act of committing a lot to one guy, but either because they’ve chosen the wrong guy (SP) or the rest of the team stinks and they weren’t going to be good anyway. Think the Royals. If they lock up Grienke again in a couple years at $18MM per, they’ll be in both those categories, but they’re not going to make the playoffs without other significant changes between now and then.
The Twins are generally considered the best in the majors at getting a lot out of a little, in terms of identifying young talent and locking it up for minimal amounts, then cutting it loose when it gets too expensive and replacing it from within. St. Louis is good at that, too. Layering one highly priced superstar on top of that foundation isn’t necessarily the recipe for disaster it is with other clubs. I’m not saying it’s a no-brainer, but we’re a little different. And at some point, you’ve got to pay to make it to the next level, and this is the opportunity that’s been presented to the Twins. I don’t think they should heed the stats in this particular case.
Also, no way I’d take Pujols over Baby Jesus. Maybe in another 5-6 years, if Mauer’s not playing far and away the premium defensive position on the field, and instead manning first base or DH’ing. But not now, when he’s a shade behind Pujols at the plate, but adds significantly more in the field.
Sign him, regardless
The $25M a year will be tradeable if they need to make a deal later. I doubt it would come to that but the Yankees would be glad to take Mauer off the Twins hands at that price. Anything less than $28M a year is below Yankee market value.
Nice timing
There was a post somewhere (can’t remember where; I just checked the usual Twins suspects and Neyer with no luck) just the other day exploring this issue. It did appear to find an inverse relationship between the percentage of payroll taken up by the highest-paid player and the team’s success. However, there were two other things that they noted:
1) The teams that struggled had very low payrolls – total payroll was in the sub-$40 million range for most of them (the highest percentage was Todd Helton taking up over 40% of a $43 million payroll).
2) It’s not a huge relationship – it was something like a 45% win percentage for the highest ratio group and 52% for the lowest ratio.
Interesting note – one of the teams with a winning record in their all-time top ten of highest percentage of payroll devoted to one player was our very own 2001 Minnesota Twins, with Brad Radke as the offending player.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
By definition
the teams with the highest payrolls won’t have 20% of their payrolls with a single player, and these teams are just going to win more games on average than those with smaller payrolls.
Id take Pujols too
but that’s not disrespecting what Mauer does at all.
Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog (new and improved!)
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Only an idiot would take...
two draft picks to lose Mauer. If there is no way that Joe is going to sign, you have to trade him. There is no way you want to lose him, plus not gain anything in return. I am all for giving him a fat contract, but if he’s not going to sign, he’s not going to sign, and then you have to part ways and get at least one major league ready hitter, plus a handful of prospects, (Which is a likely scenario), and run with Ramos as your catcher.
by SouthSotaPop on Mar 17, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Another comment from Souhan
I just heard him on the radio describe Jon Rauch like this: “I don’t like him as a pitcher. I don’t like him as a man. He’s a big dumb idiot.”
It’s a good thing the Twins have such an active and amazing blog community, because if guys like Souhan were the voice of Twins Territory, I don’t think I could put up with it.
possible compromise: higher per year, fewer years?
Someone made a good point above that the twins are built to win now. Trading him for prospects or letting him go for draft picks would look really bad with the new stadium.
The strib says Mauer turned down a contract believed to be worth 20-21 per year, but didn’t say the length. Say they offered him 8 years for 160. Clearly below market rate, but still a lot, more than Santana got. And say he wants 25 per year, which is probably still below market rate. The Twins don’t want to go 8/200. Why not compromise at 6/150? Yes he could get more on the open market - but he’d get 25M per year for six years, and then more after that, if he stays healthy. He’s set for life either way, and he likes it here -- why not?
If I had to guess right now I’d say, 7 years, 24 per year, 168M Total, probably with a vesting option for the 8th year, based on games played.
If I were the twins
I’d offer him 8 years 23 million, then throw in a player option for a 9th year and a team for the 10th, that way if he’s really losing his ability, they can save themselves at least one year. Plus you would throw in incentives that could bring the salary up towards the 28 or 29 million if he plays for instance in a certain amount of games, and if he wins another MVP, or Batting title. X amount for a gold glove. 5-10 million in incentives, he could be the highest paid player every year, he’d still be a twin, and they’d still be below what they want to pay.
by SouthSotaPop on Mar 17, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If I were Joe
I would take a 30 percent stake in the new Vikings Stadium so I could save the Twins AND the Vikings!!!!!!!!!!
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