Starting Point for Heath Bell: Hicks, Revere or Morales?
On Twitter, Jim Bowden says that former Padres GM Kevin Towers would ask Minnesota for one of Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere and Angel Morales in return for closer Heath Bell.
Would you be happy to send one of these guys in a package for the Padres' closer? If so, which one?
5 months ago
Jesse
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He can have Revere
Revere is overrated…
by diehardtwinsfan on Mar 19, 2010 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
is this a joke?
Revere has never played above Single-A and he’s showing he can play with the Big Boys. I do believe he could hit 320 with a high OBA an steal 30 or more a year. Overrated? he hasn’t even played AA and some are talking about skipping to AAA.
by b1 on Mar 20, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Revere isn't over-rated.
In three minor league seasons he’s hit .337/.396/.430 with 110 stolen bases and basically a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
He has his weaknesses…powe and arm…but everyone knows that now. There’s nothing over-rated about him. He’ll be 22 this season in double-A with a chance to make his MLB debut.
None
Trade one of those guys for just a marginal win or two? I’d rather roll the dice with Neshek/Slama/Delaney/Burnett.
by shmig on Mar 19, 2010 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
None
Bell is overrated. An NL West closer with one truly elite season going on 32? Pass
I think I would not
Revere is a possibility, but ultimately I couldn’t pull the trigger for 70 innings.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 19, 2010 8:28 PM EDT reply actions
I would not
We need the cheap player pipeline to remain as stocked as possible.
Also, it isn’t like we have to do anything now; there will be relievers available later in the season if we really need someone.
Also none of them
Bell would be a nice addition, but not for a top prospect. I don’t think the difference between Bell vs. our existing relievers justifies that.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Mar 19, 2010 9:14 PM EDT reply actions
no no nope no nada no
Bullpen is a strength in our system, If your not going to give guys like Slama, Delaney, and Burnett a chance then trade them. Maybe I just have to much of a small market way about me, not used to these rich, high flying mid market ways we are now in, promote from with in and give the guys there dues, there chance.
….
I still have a strange felling Nathan is going to try to pull a Radke.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
agreed
I think you wait a bit and see what our bullpen can do before you make this move. I would be comfortable with offering them pieces such as the relievers you said above. in general I would offer a couple of guys in the 10-20 range of our top prospects. Now if it gets to be late May or June then I’d be a little more willing to offer a higher prospect than that.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I mean if our bullpen isn't doing well.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Not gonna do it--not at this juncture
I for one don’t think Revere is overrated, but he is perhaps redundant, given the fact Span has been signed long term. Nonetheless, I would not be willing to trade him at this juncture, until I have seen what some of the potential Nathan replacements can do. Revere would be far more valuable down the line as part of a package for an elite starter such as Webb or Oswalt.
As for Hicks: Hell no!
Morales: You’d never get for him now what he could be worth in a year or two.
No
No, you don’t trade players with that kind of upside for mid-level, older closers like that. If Bell were young and cheap or much better you’d think about it. Maybe you think about it later in the year. Not now though.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Surplus Value
Bell has a surplus value of roughly $10M based on an estimated 3.5-4 WAR over 2 years for $10M at 3.5-4M/WAR plus 2 draft picks. That should equal 2 B grade hitters/pitchers. Ramos, Revere, Hicks, Gibson and Sano should all be off limits. Perkins suprisingly has a surplus value of about $10M using 1 WAR true talent based on 4 years of team control. Maybe we could work a 3 way trade with a team looking for a 5th starter.
the Sky trade value sheet really breaks down with the Perkins type guys
personally I wouldn’t rely on it for him.
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maybe, but
Lucas French and Clayton Richard were both major parts of trades last summer. I’d take Perkins over either of those two. The trick is to find a team with a replacement level 5th starter.
by Jon Kammerer on Mar 20, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
well true
but there is a wealth of Perkins/French/Richards type guys, which really drives their value down.
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I think the point is more that Bell isn't super valuable either
by Jon Kammerer on Mar 20, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you there
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Thanks for putting the numbers together
So maybe a Morales-level talent does make some sense. Even if you’re right value-wise about Perkins, the main point against him may be that he’s just pretty boring—a hard to sell to fans as either someone who will help you win now or someone with a lot of unseen potential for the future.
Happily, one thing I don’t worry about with the Twins is giving away prospects too freely, so I think we can rest easy that the top 5 or so in the organization are off-limits.
agreed
Not a perfect fit for PR reasons. SD is paying Garland (career FIP 4.72) $5.3M this year. Perkins (career FIP 4.8) seems pretty attractive at the league minimum as an alternative.
by Jon Kammerer on Mar 20, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't do it for any of them
maybe Morales, but hell no on Hicks and Revere
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If that what it takes....
….no thank you. I would never trade one of our top 5 prospects (Hicks/Revere) for a 32-yr. old closer who had 1 great season. I would maybe CONSIDER Angel Morales for about 30-seconds before realizing that price would be a little steep as well. If they don’t take a package of AAA/major-league ready pitchers for him, then forget it. Which I would guess means it won’t happen.
Are you kidding?
Debate over whether or not Bell is worth any of the aforementioned prospects is a worthwhile discussion. Bell, however, has had more than one good year. He was the top set up man in SD until Hoffman departed, and is at least part of the reason for that departure. To say he has only had one good season shows you obvious neglect to look at any stat beyond the Save.
I do not think we need to rush out and get a closer, but if there is one that we are going to give up a prospect for this is the guy. Organizationally the twins are deep at OF. Bell is cheap, and barring injury will be a type A free agent after the 2011 season. If we choose not to keep him we would be in a position to benefit from the extra draft picks.
Great points
This is a great argument, and if the Twins make this move I hope these are their reasons. I still wouldn’t do it, but you almost convinced me!
by Pedro Munoz is fast on Mar 20, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Niether Revere nor Hicks
Revere is our only backup to Span. Hicks is our top prospect. You don’t trade those for a one year fix. But I might contemplate Morales.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes right now on Morales!!
we’ve got a surplus of outfielders! Go with Revere,Hicks,Benson and see who else jumps up from low-A and rookie ball. Trade Morales for a Major League Player.
Maybe Perkins and Benson
That still seems like a lot.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Absolutely not.
I wouldn’t trade any of the three, not even in a one for one. You only trade prospects with the upside of those three for a sure thing. While Heath Bell has been a solid reliever, there is no guarantee that his success will translate to more wins over what the Twins already have against American League lineups.
by Pedro Munoz is fast on Mar 20, 2010 9:50 AM EDT reply actions
Jim Bowden...
The guy that every MLB GM hates, and will never work as a GM again, because he was totally unreasonable in his demands ALL THE TIME.
Glen Perkins and a lower level prospect should do it. Although I’m surprised Bowden didn’t say Mauer or Morneau…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Id expand the trade a little
I don’t know who SD has as prospects, But I’d trade Revere and Perkins for Bell and a different prospect. (Maybe a few dollars if I consider money important to this trade)
Bell is an elite reliever. We are going for it this year. We also have tons of OF prospects. Does SD have another Bartlett we can get from them? Maybe a prospect at a different position that we are not as strong at?
I think we (all Twins fans) are frustrated at the thought of trading for a closer because we have the best one out there until he was taken away by ……injury as opposed to leaving FA. He’s still our closer man and giving up talent to get what is rightfully our hurts man.
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Phineas and Ferb
Matt Antonelli
Would be a nice acquisition
by AM. on Mar 20, 2010 2:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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