The Morning After: Still Feeling Good About All That Joe Mauer Love Last Night?
The light of a new day often brings a fresh perspective on things, and that's no exception to what can only be described as a eurphoric Sunday night. Sometimes you want to bite your arm off, but sometimes that "walk of shame"...really isn't.
I don't blame us for how we acted last night. I mean hell, it's been a long time coming. The anticipation has been building for months, and the fact that both sides wanted it--the fact that both sides wanted to get together--made it harder to bear. You could cut the tension with a knife. And so when circumstances finally were right and the stars aligned, well...nobody can be blamed for how they reacted. We're only human.
Of course that means we probably shouldn't be surprised when people start whispering things. People start comparing their own bad experiences to your situation, meaning it as a word of warning even though circumstances really aren't the same. (I mean, really, don't lump us in with you, because you've got a long history of bad decisions trailing in your wake. Everyone makes mistakes, but honestly, our track record is a bit better than yours...we run our lives quite efficiently.) Others, who just don't want to see us hurt and have been big fans of ours in general, will offer their own words of warning. Still others will patiently point out how many situations similar to ours have ended in disappointment...or even tears and heartbreak.
But you know what? We're adults. We understand that there are risks involved in any long-term committment. And we're not afraid of that committment because, as we've mentioned, this is something we've wanted for a long time. We've prepared for this. Just because this isn't something we were prepared to do in the past, doesn't mean we're not prepared to take it on now.
There are a lot of bad decisions to be made in life. But sometimes, when you find something special, you jump in head-first anyway because you understand that this has the chance of turning out to be, quite possibly, one of the best decisions you've ever made in your life. Sure, we might cringe and hurt if things come to an unfortunate end, but that's the risk you take with all big decisions. You take the chance of getting your heart broken and you take the chance of not getting quite what you hoped for out of it.
So pardon us for having the balls to step up and do what is necessary. This isn't just anyone we're talking about. And if Joe isn't worth that committment, then nobody is. It might hurt, and it might backfire, but I wouldn't have this any other way.
I'm in. What about you?
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Your right about Joe
Ya hit it right on the head! In ALL of baseball, if Joe is worth it, then who is? Can’t wait to hear the negative response’s to your well put question. Who is then?
by Twins fan catching smallies in Ohio on Mar 22, 2010 9:23 AM EDT reply actions
Of course this is a good thing
There’s no continuum here—it’s one thing or the other; either you step up and get it done or you don’t. What sort of franchise are you if you don’t?
There is immense risk here, no question. But we aren’t talking about merely a great player here; Mauer is history. His career is potentially unique—there’s non-negligible chance that he winds up the best catcher in the history of the game.
Given the huge advantages he gives you on the field, and the historic nature of his career, you live with the chance that it doesn’t work out. The alternative, letting him walk, guarantees that it doesn’t work out.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 22, 2010 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
This is the best. post. EVAH.
Man, they should make this into a Twins Territory commercial, filmed in the style of an after-school-special message moment.
http://www.realityfish.com
I wonder
how much the Twins will extend Nick Punto for now. Punto is better than Mauer in every aspect of the game. Should we say 7 years, $196 million for Punto?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
I think 10 years, $300 million for Punto
A player of his value deserves to set a new record for baseball’s highest contract
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Mar 22, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Lifetime contract and hand over ownership
really anything less would be an insult to the King of Grit… by the way he can’t bunt in MLB the Show either…
It's on FSN for sure
Not sure if any local stations or ESPN are playing it.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
by fischean on Mar 22, 2010 10:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hey guys...
Padres fan with family ties to the Twins. Stoked to see you guys are doing what we, inevitably, will not be doing with Adrian. Just curious, what do you think are now the long term plans with Morneau?
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
He's already signed for several years
I think through 2014(?). He’s already budgeted in, so he’ll be around.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Justin loves Joe with a passion for the ages.
I think he’ll give a huge hometown discount to keep playing with his BFF. It might still be outside our range — you never know — but remember that by 2014, we will certainly not be paying Joe Nathan 11MM a year, and we might not have Cuddy either. So it’s doable.
http://www.realityfish.com
I would think he would make an effort to stay put
but when you’re choosing to stay for your BFF you want to make what your BFF is making right? I hope it gets done because that would be a cool lineup for years to come.
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
by Mad_Villain on Mar 22, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
No Nathan and Cuddyer
But at that point our young, cheap pitching staff will be much more expensive. Unless we move a few of them when they begin making around $10M.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 25, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a feeling
that cause Joe is staying, Justin will re-up too. His wife is from here and his and Joe’s bromance is too strong.
by John Veldhuis on Mar 22, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I still say the Twins need to go get Grady from Cleveland
Ladies night at TF, “and coming to the center stage your starting lineup, Mauer, Hardy, Sizemore, and Blackbuurrrrrrrn!”
With Justin in his powderblue tux collecting the bills…
More money than the YES Network there…
Don't forget Kubel
His facial hair really does it for some of us :)
uh...ok
I never would have thought “patchy beard” as a lady killer but it is mysterious and powerful so…
Yes. Add Kubes.
He is adorable and I love him.
But mostly I want to see more of Nick Blackburn’s eyelashes. (Yes, I know this is an unhealthy obsession of mine, but HAVE YOU SEEN THEM IN HD.)
http://www.realityfish.com
I don't think I've noticed but I'm pretty sure my wife has
a couple of seasons ago, Mauer and Blackburn were talking on the mound and she drops this line, “now there’s a battery that can put a charge in any girl”
I’m still not sure what to feel about that, proud that she knows the term battery or nervous…
Wow
That’s one of the naughtier baseball puns I’ve ever heard. You should be proud.
I never understood why more girls didn’t like Kubel. I keep telling my girlfriend’s friends that he is the definition of “generous lover.”
And he winks all the time
Maybe a little too much.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Excessive winking=/=attractive.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
Also, I hope you guys can work something out with Adrian.
It’s always tough to lose a great player—we know a little something about that.
Now you've got to pony up the cash to keep a guy for his whole career.
We did it with Gwynn but would have no chance in today’s market.
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
by Mad_Villain on Mar 22, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Small market shift
I’m thinking if the Twins have a great year after upping our payroll like we have it will help other small market teams, (like the Padres) open up their pockets as well. That said I have Adrian on two seperate fantasy keeper leagues, so I wouldn’t mind seeing him get out of that ballpark and lineup…haha But it would be better for the sport for these stars to start staying local like Mauer has. Should be interesting to see
Locals wouldn't mind brining in the fences in right...
Honestly, he’s put up crazy numbers somewhere else.
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
by Mad_Villain on Mar 22, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Padres Payroll
Their current payroll is a function of their ownership situation, which is underfunded, digging out from a previous ownership situation that disintegrated because his divorce sapped his finances. Moores, the previous owner, had funded the team reasonably well through 2008.
They’re a bottom 1/2 payroll – not as low as 2009 – but they’re confined to the bottom half for the foreseeable future. They may have payroll surges, but it will be proportional to talent and performance. That’s not going to change in time to keep Adrian or any other player making more than a few million.
Small market teams are generally low revenue teams, but that doesn’t mean their situations are all the same. The Twins have saved enough pennies and signed enough good deals to have a long-term revenue boost. But not all of them are going to get to keep their Joe Mauers now.
True but ...
I’ve always thought that if teams spent money to keep their star players and help their team be more competitive that more fans would come to the ballpark, generating more revenue for the team and ultimately the owners. I mean, look at our own team the Twins for example. They were only getting 10,000 people a game in the late 1990s; now they are getting upwards of 30,000 on a consistent basis. And that is not merely due to population growth; it is largely due to a better product on the field. I don’t understand why many professional sports owners don’t try this more often. The question then becomes, I suppose, is the extra attendance and revenue enough to compensate for the extra money being invested in the team? I would think that it would be in most cases.
Win Values
As the Twins proved throughout the decade, and the Rockies more recently proved (and the Reds are proving), it’s important to build a team that can sustain success. Teams can have star players, and that might help them maintain 15,000-20,000 per game attendance. But, would you rather have ten years of a star player and mediocre attendance (and mediocre records), or three years of awful attendance (and records) while the team rebuilds with young, cheap, cost-controlled players?
I think most owners of small to mid-market teams would choose to attempt the latter scenario. The best way to build revenue through attendance and, as importantly, to build a market for the team’s brand, is to win. If the choice is between keeping your star player and rebuilding at a chance for prolonged success, most owners will incur the short-term wrath.
The key to the Twins Decade wasn’t keeping their star players around. The only star kept through his first free agency year was Radke. Hunter and Santana signed deals to buy out their arbitration years, but when free agency came they were gone. The key was having young, cost-controlled good to star players like Hunter and Santana (during their arb years), and Morneau, Mauer, Nathan, Kubel, Cuddyer, etc.
Now they have a payroll that is above mid-market, bordering on large market, and they have players worth spending it on. Fans will reward them by attending.
However, other teams haven’t had that run of sustained success developing players, and consequently, haven’t had a sustained run of winning. So, rather than muddle along, owners choose (for various reasons economic and practical) to flush the current construction and try again in a year or two.
For every Twins or Rockies team
There is a team like the Royals, Pirates, or Nationals that is in perpetual rebuilding mode because as soon as their players get good, they get rid of them. Even the Marlins and Athletics could be put into this category despite an occasional good year now and then. They don’t keep their players because they don’t want to spend anything. This is the problem with the MLB.
The Royals is terrible management for the last 15 years, and the Pirates had the same problem until the Huntington group took over, plus the added effects of the steep economic decline in Pittsburgh through the 90s. The Nationals are the product of MLB’s malfeasance in letting Jeffrey Loria dump a loser franchise (Montreal) for one he could make money off of, which is all he does with the Marlins, who are in perpetual rebuilding mode because, yes, their owners have been pretty cheap for the last 12 years and have lost all good will from Miami.
The Athletics are their own beast— they signed Chavez, but let Giambi and Tejada walk. They traded the Big Three, but got Haren, etc back. Now they’re signing high risk, high reward free agents. There’s some money going into it, but they also have a questionable situation with geography and location.
Small/mid- market teams have unique situations. Some are/were just poorly, poorly run (Royals, Pirates), others are victims of the revenue structure (Marlins), and others are just all over the place (Nationals, Orioles).
The Twins and Rockies, and Rays, Athletics, and Mariners are all small to mid-market teams that have had clearly defined development plans in place anywhere from two years to over a decade. And as a result, many of those teams are in a position to spend more because that development has paid off in terms of supplying a constant stream of talent to winning teams.
It’s not just: Sign the homegrown star, and boom, goodwill emerges. The Orioles attendance floundered while they kept Cal around, the Royals weren’t so great with Sweeney still there, and Cincinnati paid the price for trading and spending heavily on Ken Griffey Jr in his “homecoming.”
We agree far more than disagree
And actually my point was more about teams spending money to be competitive than merely about signing one or two hometown stars. My point was that many of the struggling teams in baseball are struggling with attendance and hence revenue because they aren’t willing to spend the necessary money to keep the good players they develop to stay competitive. Instead, they always claim to be building for the future by collecting prospects for their good players. Then when those prospects get to the point where they are solid MLB players, they get traded for more prospects and the cycle continues. These teams (which we both already mentioned) are rarely contenders and merely serve as farm teams for the rest of baseball.
Ah, I see what you are saying now. I don’t know exactly how Oakland or Tampa gets to the payroll the Twins are at now and will be at for the foreseeable future. They play in pretty dumpy stadiums. At some point, both of those teams will get new stadiums and their economic situations will look brighter. Maybe then they will have the revenue stream to support a $100M payroll. Given their ability to acquire and develop young talent, it would make baseball extremely interesting.
For the Royals and Pirates, though, it’s a matter of fixing the organization first and then spending money.
Pirates could be a contender
They have a lower barrier to contend in the Central than the Orioles do with the Yankees/Red Sox. If they’re just planning to be a perpetual doormat they should move them to the East. At least they would be playing the Phillies and Mets more often.
The Orioles have the revenue stream, they just have the most difficult division in baseball for contention.
True, the Orioles do/should have a great revenue stream. They just never had young players worth signing to a contract. You could argue Bedard, but the haul they got back for him is 3/4 of the future of that team. Starting with Roberts and Markakis, I think they will continue paying for their talent.
The Pirates have a ways to go, but at least they’re trying different things than the last 20 years. If Alvarez, Tabata, and a pitcher or two turn out well, they’ll join McCutcheon in making that team .500 and eventually a contender.
Remember, the only reason we opened up our pocketbooks
is the new stadium. What small market teams are expecting a new stadium in the near future? Tampa, perhaps.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 25, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Morneau long term
Signed through 2013, which means he’ll be 32 when his contract expires. Not old by any means, but slugging first basemen have a way of aging very quickly once they get around that age. I’d probably wait until after 2011 or 2012 and talk about a limited 2-3 year extension if Morneau is solid the next few years.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 25, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have been heart-broken
to see this beau get away to the rich guys in the east. They may have more to offer in money and notoriety, but we have genuine love to offer and in the end that’s all that really matters.
Guess class is canceled for this hour
so here I come to talk Joe Mauer
Awesome post.
I started a slow clap when i was done reading this post. But then sheepishly realized that i was in my office and would attract attention to the fact that i am doing no work. And the champagne hangover that i have is killing me. why couldn’t this have been done on a saturday.
Count me as an Indians fan that’s happy for you, though not happy at all that we’ll be seeing much more of Mauer.
The guys talking about the risks of the contract aren’t wrong, exactly, but I just don’t think the Twins had a choice. I could tell you about the Tribe’s own contract extension heartbreak (see Travis Hafner), but that would be snooty, wouldn’t it? The fact is, you guys had to do this, and for the near future you’re going to have one of the best players in baseball. It’s just a shame that in today’s baseball you have to risk crippling your franchise in order to stay competitive, but if there were anyone you could take that risk on, it’s Mauer. Good luck to you guys.
That's pretty much exactly what I think too--there wasn't a choice here.
And yeah…sorry about Pronk. He was a great hitter.
Gleeman's logic
Most of the cases Gleeman mention were bad contracts to begin with and everybody knew it. The Zito and Hampton contracts, for example, were just stupid. Using them as evidence that
History says there’s a high likelihood of the Twins living to regret Mauer’s deal
Is just foolish. History says nothing of the sort, unless you think every long-term contract was conceived under similar circumstances. To suggest that Mauer is in the same class as Zito is rubbish.
Comparisons to the Tiexiera contract are more instructive. The contracts are very similar and the two players’ adjusted OPS + at the time of the deal are within the margin of error for statistical significance. But, unlike Mauer, Teixeira was not born and bred in the town where he signed. Unlike Mauer, Teixeira ultimately went to the highest bidder. Unlike Mauer, Teixeira plays the easiest position on the diamond. And unlike Mauer, Teixeira was two years older when he signed. All these things were pointed out by Gleeman. Yet he still drew a preposterous conclusion.
History is not likely to see the Yankees living to regret the Teixeira deal, especially since they won a World Series in his first year. And history is less likely to see the Twins living to regret this contract, especially since it comes at the dawn of a new era for the franchise.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You can't use the Texeira contract as a comparison
The Tex contract isn’t really a valid comparison when discussing contract disappointments, because it’s only a year in. With the exception of the Zito deal, every ginormous contract looked okay after the first year – when guys break down and turn it into an albatross, it’s usually a couple years in. Tex also doesn’t have Mauer’s injury history or as strenuous a position – strange as it may seem given their relative value, it’s probably a better idea to give mammoth deals like that to first basemen and corner outfielders, because less of their value is tied up in their defense.
You’ll note that (much as I am) Gleeman is largely playing devil’s advocate with those comments – in his last few paragraphs, it’s pretty clear that he’s generally in favor of the deal as well, and lines like the ones you quoted are more a warning that any deal of this magnitude comes with a big chance to bite you in the ass. I know everyone rags on Gleeman for being a gloomy Gus, but it’s not like he was deriding the contract as a whole, just throwing in a bit of realism along with it.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
High likelihood
He’s basically saying the Twins are virtually certain to regret this deal. That’s strong language.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I can buy Neyer's 50/50
But not the 90/10 Gleeman suggests. If he wanted to argue that, he should have done a statistical analysis of all long-term contracts and seen which ones pan out. As it is, he said for every good one there’s a bad one. That’s 50/50 by my Minnesota math.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Does he specifically mention a 90% chance or are you inferring?
High likelihood could be as small as 30% or so. A 30% chance of being hamstrung for most of a decade is a very big chance to take. It is still a risk the Twins have to take with Mauer and I think it’s pretty clear that AG agrees with that.
High likelihood typicallly means 90% or so
Likely is better than 50%. It is my interpretation. but I would probably not have reacted the way I did if it was just “likely” instead of “highly likely”.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
If it's 50/50
it’s basically a fair contract. 50% chance Mauer’s paid more than he’s worth, 50% chance he’s paid less—which sounds about right to me. But even if that’s the case you could still say “there’s a high likelihood the team regrets the deal.” But then, you could say the same thing if they let him go. Upside/downsides to everything. The Twins made their bet the way I would have.
Yeah
That’s fair. You’re basically saying the risk is evenly split between the two parties. And that I can agree with.
In my mind, the risk of not signing him and trading him was higher for the Twins than signing him to a market-leading contract. Mostly because of the intangibles: We all know things would not go well for the team if they traded away the franchise before even playing a single game in a brand new stadium, especially with the legacy of trading Rod Carew and Johan Santana under similar circumstances in old stadiums.
But between Mauer’s risk and the Twins’ risk, I say it’s pretty even. This is a fair deal.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I don't read it that way
Again, check the rest of the article – Gleeman is pretty clearly in favor of the extension. I have a hard time believing that someone as logical as he is would have a generally positive outlook on a decision he thought the team was “virtually certain to regret”. If Gleeman thought the decision was a dud, he’s not the kind of guy who would spend three paragraphs softening the blow and making it look like he was on board.
His “high likelihood” remark was based purely on the comparable gigantic contracts he listed (“History says…”), and there was a majority of stinkers in there.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Then it's badly written
I read along fairly well, and thought he was doing a decent job of showing the reader both sides without taking either. But I focused on his conclusion, in which he came down on the cynical side. I didn’t think the conclusion followed from his earlier arguments. But it was the conclusion. If you don’t want people to believe you have a strongly negative attitude towards a deal, don’t write strongly negative comments in the conclusion.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
You made a very good point on the danger of giving a catcher with a recent string of injuries such a huge deal. The only potential problem I have with this deal concerns what position Mauer is going to be playing when he is in the last half of this deal. If he is still playing catcher when he is 33-36, I could see him physically breaking down a lot, especially considering all the injuries he has had in his twenties.
The other word of caution I would offer to those who are giddy about this deal is that contracts of this magnitude are usually only given out to power hitters. If Mauer reverts back to the guy he was before a three month power stretch last year, then he will be vastly overpaid in my opinion. But he’ll still be a great player, and I’ll feel fortunate to be able to watch a future Hall-of-Famer play for my team for the next 9 years!
Mauer is the difference between good and great
Like anything, be it a car or a tv, you get what you pay for. You can stand there and split hairs and maybe ultimately save a few bucks by buying the Samsung instead of Sony, but in reality the Samsung may not be that much better than the junk brand that is $200 cheaper. You never go wrong when you go the extra distance for quality. Jeter’s been worth it, as have A-Rod and Tex so far, the best comparables. One could argue against Helton being worth it, but he is probably the best comparable, and look what he just did to help make his contract more hometown friendly. A lot of the other big contracts were examples of desperate teams over-bidding for Samsungs.
To beat a dead horse: Split hairs between the Pontiac Grand Prix and the Chevy Camaro all you want, but if you have a chance for a Ferrari, there is no comparison.
Plus, the whole contract is still less than the Yankee's payroll last year
Maybe I have low expectations, but just one championship in the next nine years would make this worth it. Without Mauer, the team implodes this season, and the rebuilding begins. The new park is soured.
If you are driving that Ferrari, the chances of attracting the eye of that pretty girl/World Championship are infinitely better than if you are driving the Grand Prix.
I just had to replace my Samsung Blu Ray with a Sony
Mother bleeping piece of bleep.
The Contrarian View
It’s kind of funny, because the more I read general (e.g.: national) responses to the Mauer signing, the more I come to think that believing that the signing was a good thing is the contrarian view.
It is possible to argue that Mauer wasn’t critical to the Twins’ chances of being competitive — after all, look at 2004, when Mauer blew out his knee in game two of the season, played only about a quarter of the full season, and was replaced by Henry Blanco; the Twins still won the division. A lineup with Morneau third, Cuddyer fourth, and Kubel fifth isn’t going to be weak, especially if Span continues his heroics at the top of the order.
Ultimately, though, the question is, do you or do you not want Joe Mauer on the team. (Hoping he gets hurt again and can thus be signed as ‘damaged goods’ is an option I won’t bother analyzing.) Somebody is going to give Mauer this contract. Either you do it, and demonstrate to your fans that you’re serious about all the rhetoric that went into the stadium push and the past few seasons of relative frugality, or you don’t do it and reveal your hypocrisy. It’s something of a relief and a surprise that the Twins’ management decided to go with the former, at least from my perspective, but I won’t complain.
On the flip side of the coin, I can pretty much guarantee that, come 2017, we’ll probably be ruing that we’re paying Mauer $23 million when we could probably get someone playing as well as he is (at that point, anyway) for less. ‘History’ shows that Kirby Puckett received over $13 million in 1996 and 1997 — and if you don’t recall Puckett actually playing in 1996 and 1997, you’re not wrong. That money could have gone a long way to improve a Twins’ club that was among the worst of the Pohlad era, and it’s entirely possible that those days will come again, even before Mauer’s shiny new contract has expired.
But if you don’t do the deal, you already know what the result is — none of the rest of your players will believe that you’re in it for the long haul, and your fanbase will have to sit back and watch the guy who could have been the face of your franchise go be a superstar for somebody else’s team (see Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, and any number of other former Royals over the past decade).
I’m going to think of this contract as if I’d taken out a second mortgage to spend two months touring Europe. Sure, I’ll be playing for it years after the trip, but the experiences and the memories will last a lifetime.
Dang, I think this is the most positive I’ve been about the Twins in years. Hope I didn’t just jinx ’em…
My only thought is this...
I love that Mauer is sticking around, but it’s ridiculous to spend 25% of a team’s payroll on one player. (Guess that means they’ll have to keep on spending).
Check out my work here: http://csssaints.blogspot.com/
at least it's a player that can help you win every game
unlike the huge deals for Santana, Zito, Kevin Brown, Darren Driefort.
Spending over a 100 million for a guy who plays every 5th day increases the chance of regret in my opinion.
Every 5th day doesn't bother me
The higher likelihood of a pitcher getting a major injury is the reason I don’t like $100M+ for pitchers. True, a pitcher doesn’t help you win every game, but an ace has much more of an impact on those 35 games than a hitter will typically have on any single game. The hitter’s contributions are smaller per game, but spread out over multiple games. But from an overall value standpoint, it ends up pretty similar for the entire season.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 25, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Sweeney comparison is galling
There is no, NO, comparison between the Sweeney and Mauer extensions. The Royals paid a player with what are now commonly recognized as old player skills (which are also commonly known not to tend to age well) to decline on their team, while eating a huge chunk of payroll.
Sweeney and Mauer are not at all similar hitters. Until the ‘09 season, Mauer hit singles and line drives, and supported the good average and decent power with tons of walks. Mike Sweeney is slow, hit lots of fly balls and line drives during his peak, and never walked as much as Mauer. In other words, once he got older and the power declined he wasn’t going to be worth much. The Royals didn’t recognize this, and signed an old, fly-ball dependent, slow-footed DH to a (for them) big extension.
Mike Sweeney was 26! when he broke out. He was 27 when he signed his first contract, had all of his best seasons (+.900 OPS) between 26-29, and was heading into his age 30 when he signed the 5/$55M extension. After signing the extension, he never OPS’d above .900 again. He hit his decline period, and the Royals paid for all of it. According to Fangraphs, he was worth $16.6M during the 5 year contract.
Sweeney, as a first baseman, only played in more than 126 games more than three times. Mauer, as a catcher, has already done that four times. In the last two years, Mauer has walked 160 times. Sweeney never had a two year stretch like that in his career.
Mauer has had injuries in the past, and that will continue to be a risk. However, he has played far more than Sweeney at a tougher position. He probably won’t be a catcher in 2018, but he could still be a good defensive player. Sweeney was an average first baseman when he signed his extension, and was headed toward DH-land. During the contract, he never played more than 55 games at first base.
of course
Sweeney’s contract was in effect a four year contract in 2004, less than half of Mauer’s, for much less money annually.
Mauer is a much better player, as I wrote, but the contract is also much more gigantic.
Still...
You failed to consider the difference in ages at the beginning of the contract, the result of which will be that the Twins are presumably paying for 4 years of peak performance and 4 years of unknown production. The Royals were paying for, at best, a year of Sweeney’s peak and the beginning of his decline phase. Given the type of hitter that he was, which was a slow-footed, low-walk, fly ball/line-drive hitter (not at all similar to Mauer), he wasn’t going to age well.
The comparison would be more apt if the Royals had at all caught on to the elements of that Sweeney contract that were mistakes. Sure, the symbolism of both deals are huge, but that’s about where the Mauer comparison stops. Rather than make hard decisions about free agency vs. internal development, the Royals have continued to shoot for symbolism instead of actual improvement. The result: Jose Guillen, Rick Ankiel, and on and on and on.
I’m not ripping on the Royals, but the thought behind the Mauer deal goes beyond simply keeping a hometown/homegrown star.
ripping the royals is fine
this isn’t a royals v twins issue, the twins are obviously light years ahead of the royals
you’re describing the mauer contract like he’s 23 right now, rather than heading into his age 27 season, he’s going to be at his peak from 28-32? how is that markedly different than what the royals thought they were getting with Sweeney? sweeney’s contract covered 29-33
when we consider mauer’s contract begins in 2011, the difference in years here is one. yes, mauer is a better hitter than sweeney with a different profile. he’s also been catching, and will continue to catch for awhile
anyway, I hate trolls, so I’ll step away before becoming one
I’m a troll here anyway, as I’m just a transplant to the Twin Cities who is bored at work.
I’m not trying to just rip the Royals, I’m saying that two years of peak performance is a huge difference, that Mauer is 27 and trending up. Sweeney was heading into 29, and had firmly established skills: modest walk rate, modest strikeouts, no speed, lots of fly balls. Some injury history. Maybe I’m blending in too much hindsight, but Sweeney’s career arc is the portrait of a classic slugger peaking and declining, centered around 26-30. And they signed him
Mauer isn’t overly reliant on a high HR/FB rate, walks more at a younger age than Sweeney did, gets on base better at a younger age, has modest speed (for a catcher), plays a more important defensive position better than Sweeney, and is generally not much like Mike Sweeney. I think the Royals’ signing had a lot to do with nostalgia and poor analysis (and they were probably betting on not reaching .500 anyhow), and the Twins’ had some to do with nostalgia and a lot to do with keeping a potentially historically great (to borrow a phrase thrown around a lot these days) player.
Sweeney might be a better comparison for Morneau
when it comes time to extend him after 2013 when he’s 32 years old.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 25, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Mauer become an even better hitter if/when he changes positions?
Might be the case—poor hitting by catchers is often excused by the fact they have to spend so much time preparing with the pitchers.
If Mauer does have to change positions (Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada have managed to stick it out, with decent results—and both are older than Mauer will be when his contract runs out) one could suppose he will become a better hitter, and, if so, his decline in defensive value may well be offset by his increased offense. Not that he wouldn’t make a damn fine defensive first baseman.
At any rate, because the salary is evenly dispersed across the length of the contract, Mauer is giving an effective discount in today’s dollars but will perhaps make it up in the later years. Kind of like buying a car on payments—they are the same in year 5 as year 1, but the car obviously won’t be as new and shiny.
Might be
Generally you’d expect a player with his skills to continue to develop power as he heads from 27 to 30. The only reason I’d be hesitant to predict improvement is just because his 2009 was so amazing—triple-slash triple crown and all. So he was a better HITTER in all facets than Mark Texiera, who’s earning Mauer’s salary as an older 1st baseman. Hard to top that.
yeesh
Yeesh, this one isn’t exactly Bush-Gore here. I’m guessing we won’t have any overturned victory predictions on this poll…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

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