Another Ron Antony Q&A
Parker of Over the Baggy and TwinsCentric fame runs the numbers with the Minnesota Assistant GM. Fantastic, great read. Check it out and get some more insight on Twins philosophy.
almost 2 years ago
Jesse
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Good interview
I think some people’s head might explode on his FIP and BABIP answers but I liked his answers and his candidness in explaining how/why this team uses more traditional scouting than other teams.
Great interview
I actually found his acceptance of stats pretty relieving.
It really was,
especially considering that when I asked them about this two years ago they basically shrugged off the question. It was very good to read that.
Interesting
How in the world, though, in his postion, do you not know BABIP? At least the definition — whether he puts any value in it is a different issue.
Twins have put together a very nice roster, don’t get me wrong, but that’s unreal to me.
"Jimmy Key? What's he like, 45? I could hit him."
I'm not concerned about that. The Asst GM's job isn't to know what BABIP means.
Besides, he didn’t know what they meant, admitted it, and was a good sport about it. I think that’s pretty good. And they’ve hired the stats guy, so the organization is clearly moving forward in terms of numbers analysis. That’s the important thing.
stats guy
Anyone know who the stats guy is?
I agree with Jesse – I don’t think there’s any problem with Anthony not knowing FIP or BABIP. BABIP sorta confirms what scouts have said for years, it’s better to hit the ball than strike out and the less predictible stuff about it (will a .340 BABIP guy regress or is he really that good) is probably something that scouts feel equipped to answer anyway. And I’m not sure FIP really matters in team building since the team has to build a defense anyway and the Twins have long known that pitchers shouldn’t walk or give up HRs and have stressed defense. (Anyone remember when DIPS was the rage and people were advocationg that Bonderman was better than Santana?)
True Jesse...
I’m not concerned nor trying to be negative, just suprised I guess. It seems so commonplace to me — I see BABIP everywhere.
What is refreshing is – like you said – he not only exposed himself to this line of questioning to be potentially shown up in the interview but was honest about it. Unfair to rip him for it.
"Jimmy Key? What's he like, 45? I could hit him."
I agree.
Especially when it seems as though Rob is the team’s big “contract” guy. He supposedly handled all of the arbitration cases and played a large part in the Mauer negotiations.
by Twins Territory on Mar 23, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I was a little concerned about the RBI answer,
especially since it should have seemed like an obvious trap! And I don’t think you really even need to be into the stats thing to realize RBIs, Ws, and the like are largely situational.
I think BABIP is sort of a basic concept, but BABIP isn’t especially useful for a team that’s actually scouting the ballplayers. If the balls are being scalded, but just not falling in, they’ll see that. If a pitcher is giving up a bunch of lucky bloops and infield hits, they’ll see that too. BABIP is more so people looking only at stats aren’t fooled, not for people who are actually watching the players.
FIP I don’t really blame anyone for not knowing. It’s one of many, often proprietary stats that try to do similar things. I’ll give anyone a slap on the back who can give me the formula for it without looking it up. It also assumes that pitchers’ only skills are not walking, not giving up homers, and getting Ks, which (a) aren’t pitchers’ only skills and (b) are things the Twins are looking at anyway. FIP is better than ERA as a snapshot of a pitcher’s overall value, but if the Twins are just looking at one number to evaluate pitchers, then we have bigger problems.
Situational stats can be helpful
You’ve probably heard the term “great situational hitter.” It was often applied to Paul Molitor. The idea was, whatever the rally needed, Molitor would give it. Get on base, move a guy over, knock him in, etc. I saw a lot of at bats with him just grinding it with a closer. The guy had filthy stuff and great control, but Molly would just foul off pitches. Take pitches. And do whatever it took to disrupt the closer’s rhythm. There’s no system that quantifies that. But some hitters have it and others don’t. That’s the quality that attracts Antony to RBI. Guys with a lot of RBI tend to be good situational hitters. Yeah, they’re in the position to drive in runs a lot. But they get the job done when put into that situation.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
What we need is an RBI percentage stat
The percentage of RBI chances that were converted. You could even weight it, giving higher weight to chances with two out, e.g.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Very Interesting
The Twins organization can seem self-contradicting at times. They have long emphasized pitchers who avoid walks, but yet don’t equally value batters who take walks. They look for market inefficiencies in some cases (e.g., signing amateurs from Europe), but have resisted the efficiency gains that could result from a solid statistics department.
Antony explains the hesitation to use advanced statistics, which is the scouting background of the front office leadership, particularly under Ryan. This isn’t a startling revelation by any means, but I did think it was interesting that he addressed it forthrightly. It’s a good sign they’ve hired someone to focus on statistics, and hopefully front office personnel in general will become more knowledgeable.
Except
Clearly they value Punto’s walk-taking ability. His OBP is the only thing that seperates him from a pitcher at the plate (well, at least in odd-numbered years). Not to mention Thome. Without examining his stats too closely, I would guess he’s nearly as likely to walk as to hit a single. I think OBP is something the Twins have paid a fair amount of attention to. Everyone in the lineup (except for the past couple years of Gomez, as well as Young’s refusal to take pitches thus far) has at least respectable OBP numbers. Young is obviously the extreme exception, but the upside keeps him in the lineup.
Well
The real answer to the question “Why is Punto bad every other year at the plate?” is his BABIP….so it seems like RA should have a real interest in learning this concept.
I also admire his honesty and the openness towards the advanced stats. I also respect his justification for valuing both approaches.
The one thing that scares me and probably most people on here is that they may and have chased players (FA or trade bait) that aren’t as good as their
W-L and RBI totals appear.
by AM. on Mar 23, 2010 8:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Read what I said
“…don’t equally value players who take walks.” There’s not much positive to say about Punto’s offense, so he had to come up with something.
AL rank (out of 14) in walks taken/handed out
2009: 4th/1st
2008: 10th/1st
2007: 8th/2nd
2006: 8th/1st
2005: 7th/1st
2004: 8th/1st
2003: 7th/2nd
2002: 10th/3rd
2001: 9th/2nd
2000: 12th/3rd
The disparity seems pretty clear.
by drivlikejehu on Mar 23, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
True
It has always been much easier for the Twins to find strike-throwing college pitchers who they can train not to issue walks. They spent a few too many years drafting high school talent that didn’t pan out (obviously outside of Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, and Span), including first rounders like Garbe, Johnson, etc. etc.
The Twins were under the seemingly erroneous assumption that patience at the the plate was easier to teach than control, while at the same time most of baseball was undervaluing OBP/walks in general. “Moneyball” brought attention to it, and the Twins have followed suit. So I mostly agree with your main point. Its just that most of baseball was in the same boat. Not to mention that Delmon Young single-handedly dropped the team OBP to 10th in 2008.
I think it’s a bit simplistic to say few teams were paying attention to OBP, and then Moneyball changed everything. It did have an effect, but baseball analysts were talking about the importance of getting on base 100 years ago. The Twins organization has been very stable, and so organizational philosophies have remained more consistent than with most (if not all) other clubs.
The pitching philosophy is to throw strikes. It determines who they draft/sign and how those in the organization are taught. With hitters, the bias has been towards batting average- clearly problematic. Now, I hope this has changed… Antony did mention OPS. I don’t think the Twins have anything against walks and power, per se, it’s just that they haven’t valued them properly (by virtue of overrating average, RBIs, etc.).
There is a limited pool of players available, so sometimes it doesn’t really matter. Other times you wind up with Tony Batista.
by drivlikejehu on Mar 23, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you know the Twins drafts have focused on "BA guys"?
I mean, when you’re talking about high schoolers, that seems like a strange concept. For one, stats are going to be secondary to actual scouting in HS, since league context will be radically different. Second, if you’re an MLB-draft-caliber high schooler, you’re maybe putting up a .450/.550/.900 batting line, so your results are going to be pretty fabulous when you swing at anything near the strike zone. In other words, it’s actually going to make some sense for you to NOT aim to take walks, and on the other side of things, you’ll probably get a fair amount of walks no matter your patience level since every pitcher will know you’re the guy not to put one over the plate to.
I didn’t say anything about the draft. It’s a broader philosophy than that. The Twins teach players the importance of making contact more so than the jacking the ball out of the park. It shows in the stats.
by drivlikejehu on Mar 24, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
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