It’s not as likely if cmathewson is right about a new closer – I think he’s got the bullpen spot-on in that situation. But if they don’t, I would guess that Neshek is the favorite for the last spot, since he’s been fairly effective so far this spring and has some MLB experience, albeit not recently.

I am guessing that the Twins see Duensing as the sixth starter, and it would be better to have him getting regular starting work in Rochester so that he’s stretched out if they need him. The main failure in that argument is that without him, there’s no one in the bullpen who has started a game since 2006 (Guerrier started one that year; Rauch started one in 2005; Condrey was a regular starter in the minors in 2005), so they’d probably have to go starter-by-committee in the case of a last-second scratch.

He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since 2008—it’s been a long, long time. And when it’s not the warmest weather in April it makes it easier to tighten up when you’re on the mound, and Neshek’s not exactly the kind of guy to hold back. If he can stick around in Rochester for six or seven weeks, get some more work in for his arm while under less pressure and in warmer weather, I think that’s a good route to take.

I think it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking “Well, he’s looked great in spring training”, because he has, but we need to remember how long it’s actually been. And he hasn’t been throwing full-tilt for very long.

He looks pretty good once a week. He needs to be able to pitch three or four times a week to have a job in the bullpen.

I didn’t mean that as a gripe at you…more about silly speculation.

The only reason he ran out of gas last year is the year-after effect. I.e., when a guy has more than a 30% increase in innings from one year to the next, he has an extended dead arm period the following year. So he went from 0 innings to 200 innings from 2007 to 2008. 2009 wasn’t supposed to go well for him. (I could go back to the archives to show you how many peole predicted his 2009 slump on this site.)

Now that Liriano is past that, he has his arm strength back. He will be a very good starter this year. He’ll ultimately start playoff games, unless the Twins do something stupid and make him a closer.

neither do I. Guerrier has been the one consistent man in that bullpen for several years, besides a rocky 2008. Nathan at times as not been nearly as secure as Guerrier. Furthermore, relief pitchers generally only last about 3 years with effectiveness, after that they generally fall off the table.

It is amazing that Guerrier has been able to hang in there for so long…Guerrier seems like he should be a 39 year old. He gives that impression on the mound at least. Guerrier is crafty, not over powering, and gets guys out with well placed pitches. He doesn’t blow them away…I am glad the Twins have such a great relief pitcher like Guerrier. He certainly makes the bullpen more secure.

These were not your garden variety bad memories. These are like Apocalypse Now memories. I hear choppers!