Ten reasons to worry about the Twins

Will Slowey really be fine after his injury?

Will Neshek really be fine after his injury?

What if Blackburn’s peripheral numbers really are a better prediction of his future performance than his previous ERA, and his ERA floats up around 5? It’s not that implausible that Pavano, Liriano, and Blackburn could all have ERA’s over 5.

Hudson is getting older and could already be in decline; he could plausibly be a below-average player this year. If Hardy doesn’t bounce back as a hitter, 3B, SS, and 2B could all produce sub par offense

outfield defense is a real concern, and if anything happens to Span, could be a disaster

How will the bullpen hold up without Nathan?

…being a real concern.

First, Jason Kubel playing a lot in the outfield shouldn’t be a concern. With more playing time he isn’t a drop off from Young/Cuddyer (although I agree this outfield isn’t defensively what we all want to see, but Kubel doesn’t change that).

Don’t worry about Jacque Jones. First of all, he isn’t on the team. But when he is (yes, I meant to say when), you are all going to love him again. The player I saw in Florida is the player I remember prior to his leaving. It appears that coming back for that good ole home cooking he knew as a young man has been what he needed. Yes, he may be a step slower (although I didn’t see it), but everything else looks like the Jacque we all knew and loved five years ago.

And worrying about Alexi Casilla also isn’t a concern. He is the 25th player who isn’t going to get a lot of playing time. This is one time I certainly agree with Gardy and would prefer to see Matt Tolbert on the squad. I expect the timing wasn’t right and we will see the Twins move him during the first couple months of the season with either Matt or Jacque called up to fill his spot.

Personally I still see the Twins as the favorite in the AL Central. But one thing that often gets overlooked is that there’s a big difference between being the team that is most likely to win, and being likely to win. Of all the possible scenarios, the Twins may have the best chance of finishing on top. But those victorious scenarios are still the minority of the total possibilities. Remember, even a huge favorite in a horse race still pays 2-1.

Suppose you looked at everybody’s chances to win the AL Central like this

Indians: 5%
Royals: 5%
Tigers: 25%
White Sox: 25%
Twins: 40%

I actually don’t think the difference between the teams is nearly that great — but suppose you thought the Twins chances of winning really were sixty percent better than either the Sox and Tigers, and 800% better than the Royals and Indians. That would make the Twins huge, huge favorites — and it would still mean that there was a 60% chance the Twins would not win the division.

I think being more realistic would probably give them more like a 33% chance to win than a 40% chance. So even me, a true homer, think it’s 2-1 against. And that’s without all those things going wrong.

There are five teams. No one team has a better chance than all the others put together.

Face it. The Twins probably won’t win the division.

I have two big worries…

1) That the rumors of Liriano closing don’t seem to be ending, and apparently there is quite the effort to convince him to do it. That might seriously be one of the dumbest things this team can do. Let him start, and if he fails, make him close.

2) That people get hurt. We really have little controll over this one.

As for your concerns:

1) Delmon’s K/BB ratio is 8/4 in 40 plus at bats. While that isn’t exactly stellar, you have to keep in mind that he walked 12 times last season and 0 times in spring training last year. His spring training OBP is nearly 60 points higher than his batting average, and if he carries that into the season, he’s going to have a breakout year and will likely OPS over .800.
2) Hardy’s problem were in his swing. It was well documented. He let it get too long. As long as Vavra and company keep him cognizant of that, he should bounce back to a player similar to 2007/2008.
3 and 4) This one is going to bug a lot of Twins players. for one, Harris is young enough to break out yet. I’d probably give him the majority of starts to see if he can get things rolling. He’s certainly looked good this spring and made no mistakes. 3B is not a place where range is nearly that important. Reflexes, on the other hand, are. Punto’s making mistakes and not getting the job done at the plate. I’d just assume let Harris run with it and see what happens. He won’t generate the walks Punto does, but if he gets a shot to get into a rhythm, the batting average will climb and the OBP will probably be very similar to Punto… and that’s with the power. I really do hope that Punto goes back to the super utility role and spells most of the guys.
5-6) Look at what Thome did last season. He probably still has something. You cannot control the injuries either. This team is much deeper than ever before, which will hopefully prevent us from having to see a lineup containing Punto, Tolbert, Morales, and Casilla come September.
7) I don’t see this as a big deal at all… Yeah injuires suck, but we aren’t exactly 1 injury away from seeing Jason Tyner in the DH role.
8) Um, yeah, you think? Then again, his slider is back and his control is apparently as well. You may not see a 2006 Lirano posing an ERA just north of 2, but a guy that can consistenly go 6 innings while keeping his ERA around 3.5 is going to be immensely valuable. That’s a very reasonable target for him and I think it is quite doable.
9) It really should be Slowey as #2… Honestly, the order means very little. Our team has 3 #2 starters in Baker, Slowey, and Pavano, with a potential number 1 in Liriano and a #3-4 in Blackburn. Our rotation could be very, very good this year.
10) You have a point here. This is Alexi’s last shot as far as I’m concerned. If he cannot do something well, the man won’t last long. This team is too good to be tolerating poor performance.

Why is Alexi a 1 position player? I thought he played both middle infield positions. His lack of flexibility is not a big concern for me.
Our bench has Harris, backup at Corner spots (or move cuddy in to 1b like we all know), Casilla at the middle infield spots (or move punto there like we all know), a backup catcher and an extra DH.
Alexi will get a chance this year…one of the middle guys will have a sprain/strain and miss a couple weeks…its just up to him to make something of it.

Pavano “wasn’t fooling anyone.” When that happens, he gets rocked. Oh well, one game—maybe he didn’t want to show the Red Sox his super secret out pitch.

I hate to say it, but what on earth do you do with Delmon if he doesn’t play well? Trade him for pennies on the dollar?

1. Mauer, Cuddyer, and Kubel all had career seasons last year (the likes of which we may not see again).
2. The bullpen really isn’t very good, regardless of who or what committee is closing.
3. No starter is really a lock to put up an above-league-average ERA. A few could be plain bad.

Ok, thanks for letting me get that off my chest.

If Young has a slow start, then Kubel will get to play more outfield and Thome will get to DH more. Personally I would rather see Thome in the lineup than Young, so I don’t care whether Young succeeds or not. If we need another outfielder, Jones ain’t bad and Revere is gonna be pretty good! At this point I think Young is expendable. Put up or sit down.
Casilla is a problem, but he’s the backup utility infielder.
Pavano couldn’t get his curve ball to break yesterday. He was guaranteed 80 pitches no matter how he pitched, which will only happen in ST.
This team’s problem position is closer. As Nathan said recently, you have to jump into this role with both feet. You can’t dabble in it. The only Twins reliever that is equally adept at getting right-handers and left-handers out is Guerrier, and he led the AL in holds last year. I hope the Twins keep him out of the closer rotation.

I think D-Nard has more than proven he is and will continue to be a very productive lead off hitter for this team. Even if he finds himself in a “slump” at any time this season, he has the attitude and mentality that he can and will get through it, FAST. For as young and “inexperienced” as he is, he is very mature and I think that will be very positive for himself and the team.

…they’re probably has-beans