Joe Mauer Oddsmaker--Who Breaks the News?
by RandBall's Stu on Mar 5, 2010 8:20 AM EST
in Speculation
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Print(Jesse's recap of last night's game can be found below this.)
I realize that neither you nor I care who the first person/media outlet will be to report that Joe Mauer has signed his extension or walked away from the bargaining table, but both local and national types are no doubt gunning to get the story first. Despite the fact that the only time anyone outside a newsroom cares about who broke a story is when the story is wrong, journalists are what they are, and you just hope that they're more Jay Glazer than they are Chris Mortensen.
With that in mind, and the hope that writing this on Thursday afternoon means that it will be hopelessly outdated when Mauer signs his extension early Friday AM (EDITOR'S NOTE, FRIDAY 7:00 AM: dammit), here are my odds on who will break the Mauer story:
(NOTE TO FELLOW TWINKIE TOWN SCRIBES: Jesse has already said that if one of us gets the scoop, we get a freezer bag full of range balls from the Bois De Sioux Golf Course in Breckenridge. SWEET!)
Mark Rosen (3-2): the longtime WCCO sports anchor has already stuck his neck out with the much-derided report that a 10-year "framework" is already in place. However, Rosie knows EVERYBODY, he did break the Favre signing, and I'm pretty sure he sleeps on a cot in the Mauer family's mud room.
LaVelle E. Neal III (4-1): Twins beat guy for the Strib since 1998, as plugged in as any of the print folks in town, knows how to operate the Twitter. Docked a point for being an unrepentant Chicago Bears fan.
Joe Christensen (9-2): LEN3's fellow baseball writer at the Strib. Not wearing glasses any longer, meaning sources are more likely to confide in him.
Buster Olney (6-1): omnipresent ESPN baseball reporter. I'd bump him up a few notches, but his name always makes me think of Buster Bluth, and then I start laughing about the seal biting off Buster's hand, and then I forget what I'm writing about and see if IFC is running an Arrested Development marathon.
Kelly Thesier (12-1): the MLB.com Twins beat writer has a distinct disadvantage: as a redhead, she is inherently untrustworthy. That's just a fact, Kelly. It's the same reason Rusty Staub is on the no-fly list. I'm sorry.
Eric Perkins (25-1): a Perk at Play taping goes horribly wrong, Perk goes to the hospital and ends up sharing a room with Ron Shapiro's neighbor. Unlikely, but this is exactly how Watergate got started*.
The Field (35-1): Kelsie Smith, Joe Schmit, Mike Max, Vomit Guy--your time is now!
*Author went to a state school. (GO HUSKIES! WOOOO!!!!)
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oh man
I’ll take the field. Those are great odds on the field—it includes national guys like Gammons, Stark, Robothal, plus several local guys who could stumble on it.
The field at 35-1? Sign me up.
Sid Hartman: 95-1
Odds so long because he’s confusedly interviewing Justin Morneau’s agent instead.
by Jon Marthaler on Mar 5, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
LaVelle
I would bet 100 dollars that LaVelle will NOT break this story. In my opnion he is the one of the worst beat reporters in the MLB. I like reading him, I like listening to him on the radio, I love his blogging and his twittering. – He would be a great columnist.
I like
I really like him as a beat reporter because he doens’t shoot his mouth off about leads and get tons of stuff wrong. Rosen, Gammons, all those guys who break tons of stories, I never believe them until other guys like LEN3 break it too because of how often they race out with a story that ends up being totally false. I remember Gammons reported A-Rod from the Rangers to the Red Sox about 4 times before he went to the Yankees and practically had an annual story confirming Manny Ramirez was about to be traded out of Boston. I like those guys, but you need somebody who actually checks sources and confirms stories before you know what to believe.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I thought I recognized a St. Cloud accent in your writing
Not a bad school. I met my wife there and got my B.A. from there. Still, grad school trumps undergrad, so GO GOPHERS!
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Truly, you are an advanced intellect...
… although in my case grad school (U. Arizona) is a distant afterthought behind undergrad (GO GOPHERS WOOOO!)
by Jon Marthaler on Mar 5, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Ditto
Undergrad (Iowa State) holds my allegiance. Though that is likely because there is very little joy in rooting for a school that doesn’t even have a football team (GW)
It's funny though, even after spending 7 years or whatever at SCSU
UND will always hold my allegience. Hometown team will always be my team.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 5, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Only 7????
Proud grad (eventually) of SCSU. Go … what’s the mascot again?
by SteadyDietOfCheese on Mar 5, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Sioux
;)
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 5, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
I got my BA from SCSU, and am sticking around for my Masters
5 years here just wasn’t enough ;)
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 5, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
School>the real world, anyway.
Good choice.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
Yeah, I thought I could use a few more years of showering sporadically and eating Little Caesars 3 times a week.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 5, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
The economy is the main reason I decided to stick around
No use competing with hundreds of others for a job and end up doing something I hate. If the job market isn’t better by next spring, I’ll start working on my Ph.D.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 5, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, you're going to have so many degrees by the time the economy turns around...
But I’m doing the same thing. It just makes sense.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
.
Damn you, people
stealing my idea… now, the job market will still be saturated (with even more talented people) when it’s time to find one of those real job thingies.
I lived on Bravo Burritos wen I went there
All my professors gave me gift certificates for wedding presents.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Sid Hartman
Will congratulate Joe on having almost as much money as he does!
Seriously, what’s the big deal about who says/gets the word first and spreads it.
This one upsmanship is what makes politics so darned b-o-r-i-n-g…we predict that blank will vote for blank with 2% if precints reporting. We beat blank by 32 seconds in making OUR announcement.
The TWINS should be the first to break the news! The freakin’ TWINS! The Mauer should call all his buddies with the news (you got my new number, don’t you, Joe?).
Just cause Rosen does it first, will I become a WCCO for life? Or if LaValle, I’ll switch my rading to the Minneapolis rag? Hey, if I don’t pay attention to these folks, maybe the first person I’ll hear it from will be Joe Schmidt! Or when I log onto the computer and some screen tells me who won the gold…no click here for the real story…just glatant who…well, let’s just get him signed, start writing the checks, and hope that Joe won’t spend it all in just one place (a new car from Mauer Chevrolet!).
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Fellows:
It’ll be a part of the game thread that posts in an hour, but LaVelle has an actual JOE MAUER CONTRACT UPDATE in his latest blog post, if you care to read it.
Twins lineup for today.
They are bringing in the big guns (absent Kubel)
Denard Span, CF
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Jim Thome, DH
Delmon Young, LF
J.J. Hardy, SS
Danny Valencia, 3B
opening day
Swap Kubel for Thome and Harris for Valencia, and that’s my bet for the opening day lineup. Not that I’m going that far out on a limb…
Dan Cole (Common Man) says 8 year 22 million per with
an option for year 9 and 10 to be annoucned by Sunday.
(He cited a “source.” Hopefully not vomit guy again)
I always loved that one.
Why would they announce it on a weekend?
Weekends are when people ignore news. If the Twins are actually going to “announce” this, they’ll have an early-week press conference next week.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I don't care who breaks it
As long as it breaks!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"All morons hate it when you call them a moron." -Holden Caufield
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Mar 5, 2010 5:47 PM EST reply actions
Probabilites
Just so you know, your probabilities don’t add up to 100%. It’s impossible to have a probability greater than 100%.
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